CORY’S PICKS

SATURDAY

F. Garcia @ Dickey – Dickey is rounding into form

Kazmir @ Lester – looks like the Kazmir experiment has already ended badly

TBD (LAA) @ Guthrie

Correia @ Fister

Sabathia @ Moore

Nolasco @ Peavy – Nolasco worth a look in deeper leagues, though

Griffin @ Harrell

Holland @ King Felix

Nicasio @ Zito – Nicasio still risky despite impressive outing last time

Locke @ Fiers

Wood @ Bailey

Gast @ Lilly

Pettibone @ Haren – Haren’s unpredictability making him unusable

Minor @ Gee – Gee is much better at home but starting him still takes #want

Cashner @ Miley

                                                                                                                                               SUNDAY

M. Gonzalez @ Jenkins

Pelfrey @ Scherzer

Kluber @ Doubront

Hughes @ Cobb – still OK with using Hughes on the road

Sanabia @ Axelrod – Axelrod worth a look in deep and AL-only leagues

J. Williams @ W. Davis

Colon @ Keuchel

Tepesch @ Iwakuma

Garza @ Cueto

Hamels @ Strasburg – NICE

Wandy @ Gallardo – tough draw for Wandy but he’s been solid as usual

Garland @ Cain

S. Miller @ Kershaw – sell high on Miller. Just sayin’

Marquis @ Corbin

Teheran @ Marcum

                                                                                                                                             MONDAY

Liriano @ Verlander – true test of Liriano’s hot start

Wainwright @ Shields

Chacin @ Norris

J. Fernandez @ Odorizzi – 2017 All-Star Game starters preview?

Bumgarner @ Straily – your call on Straily, I’ll pass

Volquez @ Harang

T. Hudson @ Buehrle – Hudson too hittable of late, I’ll pass

Cloyd @ Buchholz

Samardzija @ Quintana

Hammel @ G. Gonzalez – Nationals are struggling so go for it on Hammel

Jimenez @ Leake – toss-up on both, I’ll play it safe

TBD (MIN) @ Burgos

Darvish @ Kennedy (Gm 1 of doubleheader)

Nuno @ Niese – Niese seems to be turning it around and is at home

Wilson @ Greinke

Perez @ Cahill (Gm 2 of doubleheader)

Hey everyone,

It’s Friday, so you know what that means! Time for another dose of my weekly two-start pitcher notes. As always, remember that these are geared towards standard, 12-team 5×5 mixed leagues. And of course, be sure to listen to today’s podcast, as Cory and JB will be joined by Todd “Lord” Zola of Mastersball to talk about some of these two-start pitcher options while answering a bunch of listener questions.

-Zach

Ervin Santana  (vs. STL, @TEX)

This is a very tough test for Big Erv, who is fresh off a mediocre performance versus the Angels in which he allowed four home runs. But the strikeouts are still there and his walk rate is at a career-low level. With Erv, it basically boils down to whether the longballs he serves up will be solo shots or multi-run homers. Despite the scary matchups, I think he’s pitched well enough this year to earn our trust in a two-start week.

Brandon Morrow  (vs. ATL, @SD)

More often than not, Morrow has disappointed this season. On any given day, he could either throw a two-hitter or allow six runs in three innings. This makes him incredibly frustrating to own. While the @SD matchup is enticing, in a 12-team mixed league I’m not going anywhere near him for the vs. ATL outing. The Braves rank 1^st in the NL in homers and 5^th in runs. No thanks. Ditch.

Francisco Liriano  (@DET, vs. CIN)

Check out Liriano’s stats so far this year. They’re pretty good. The problem is that it’s only been three starts, and Liriano has teased us before. The other problem is that these matchups are flat-out frightening, with the Tigers leading the AL in runs and the Reds being the second-highest scoring team in the Senior Circuit. In an NFBC-style mixed league, maybe you want to take a chance on him due to the upside, particularly in the strikeout department. But in a standard sized mixed, you’re probably better off playing it safe and ditching.

Ubaldo Jimenez  (@CIN, vs. TB)

Ubaldo, Ubaldo, Ubaldo. Just when we started to think (or hope) that he had turned the corner, he goes out and puts up a stinker. It was against the Tigers, so let’s give him a bit of a break. But the bottom line is that you just can’t trust this guy. And I’m not a fan of these matchups. At all. I view Jimenez as a lot like Liriano. High risk/high reward but to me, the high risk outweighs the high reward. I’ll pass.

Phil Hughes  (@NYM, vs. BOS)

This is an interesting one considering that Hughes is coming off a strong showing vs. the Orioles and the @NYM matchup is rather tasty. But the Red Sox game has disaster written all over it and let’s not conveniently forget that Hughes had allowed a combined 13 earned runs over his previous two starts (6 1/3 IP) against a pair of weak offenses in the Mariners and Royals. Hughes, who currently sports an ugly 5.51 ERA and 1.50 WHIP through nine starts this season, still has a ways to go before I can feel comfortable pitching him, even in a two-start week.

Jarrod Parker  (vs. SF, vs. CHW)

Finally, Parker seems to have righted the ship, with three straight quality starts. The overall stat line is still tough to look at, but I’m still a Parker fan thanks to his excellent rookie campaign last year. He’ll get a couple of home starts next week, one versus a White Sox offense that ranks dead last in the AL in runs scored and second to last in batting average and the other a Giants’ lineup that has surprisingly hit well so far but is still no one’s idea of Murderers’ Row. I’ll pitch on Parker.

Kevin Slowey  (@TB, vs. NYM)

Just when it looked like Slowey was turning back into a pumpkin, he redeemed himself in his most recent start, but being that his only quality season came back in ’08, I remain skeptical. If you have him on your roster, you might as well pitch him, as the vs. NYM start is an enticing one, but generally speaking, he’s not someone I plan on owning anytime soon because, well, he’ll probably turn back into a pumpkin.

Edwin Jackson  (@CHW, vs. ARI)

I expected better from E-Jax this season. I didn’t quite expect him to duplicate his performance from last year, but at the same time I didn’t expect him to be this erratic. Come on, a 6.11 ERA and 1.57 WHIP through 10 starts? The only positive is that he’s striking out a shade under a batter per inning, so at least he offers K’s in a two-start week. While I have yet to lose all faith in him, my patience is wearing very thin, and these are pretty bad matchups. In a 12-team mixed, I’m ditching until he shows some signs of righting the ship. But in deeper mixed leagues, rolling the dice on Jackson isn’t a terrible move if you’re chasing K’s.

Mike Leake  (vs. CLE, @PIT)

Leake is hard to trust in general, but guess what his ERA is over his last two starts, spanning 13 2/3 innings? Yep, 0.00. The bad news is that the Indians’ lineup ranks 2^nd in the AL in runs scored and is tied for 1^st in homers, which makes this a tough call. But I do like the @PIT matchup, and Leake has been pitching well enough lately that I’m willing to take the risk. Plus, he’s backed by a strong offense, so chances are you’ll get at least one W.

Jose Quintana  (vs. CHC, @OAK)

Although Quintana has had a few mediocre outings this season, on the whole he’s done a solid job. He doesn’t hurt himself with walks and has even shown considerable improvement in the strikeout department. Oh yeah, and he’s only 24. I’m a huge Quintana supporter, and next week is as good a time as any to roll him out there, as he’ll be facing two sub-par offenses. Pitch!

CORY’S PICKS

Kendrick @ Zimmermann

Medlen @ Hefner

Phelps @ R. Hernandez – why isn’t there more love for Phelps? Stats don’t lie

Milone @ Bedard – not starting Milone on the road

Lynn @ Capuano

Tillman @ Nolin

Feldman @ Arroyo – have to ride Feldman, even if the ride gets a little scary at times

Vargas @ Mendoza

Burnett @ Estrada

Grimm @ Saunders – yep, Saunders is a “pitch” at home, even vs. Texas

Deduno @ An. Sanchez

Masterson @ Lackey

Koehler @ Danks – keep an eye on Koehler in favorable matchups, though…

Stults @ McCarthy

Chatwood @ Lincecum

CORY’S PICKS

CORY’S PICKS

Worley @ Maholm – Maholm is useful vs. weak offenses

Parker @ Tepesch – bench but don’t cut Parker; better of late but hasn’t handled a top offense yet

Hellickson @ Buehrle – K/BB says Hellickson will get better, but HR rate says not yet

Kuroda @ Hammel

Buchholz @ Sale – tasty

Latos @ Harvey – yummy

Cahill @ De La Rosa – DLR has four scoreless outings this year; I’ll take my chances

Samardzija @ Liriano – Liriano throwing well and Cubs are a good matchup

Maurer @ Wilson

Shields @ Lyles

Ryu @ W. Peralta – Peralta struggling too much to use even vs. Dodgers

G. Gonzalez @ Bumgarner

Verlander @ Jimenez – if Ubaldo can handle the Tigers, though…

Lee @ Slowey – well that ended badly

Lyons @ B. Smith

CORY’S PICKS

Garza @ Wandy – great matchup for Garza’s return

Scherzer @ Kluber

Hughes @ M. Gonzalez – Hughes a better road play, but tough matchup… pass

Cobb @ Ortiz

Leake @ Niese – perfect home/away setting for both

Pelfrey @ T. Hudson – hang with ‘em on Hudson vs. weak Twins

Cloyd @ J. Fernandez – Cloyd an underrated prospect, and of course great matchup

Straily @ Darvish

Doubront @ Quintana – Quintana risky but plenty of upside

W. Davis @ Norris – Norris solid at home and Royals don’t’ score much

Greinke @ Burgos

Kennedy @ Chacin – playing it safe on Kennedy in Coors… bench but don’t cut

Harang @ Williams – Williams gets SEA/KC in weekly leagues, oh baby!

Wainwright @ Volquez

Strasburg @ Cain

Hey everyone,

This week’s two-start pitcher choices were unappealing to say the least and for the most part, it’s more of the same for next week. Here are my notes, and as always be sure to listen to today’s podcast as we’ll have our usual two-start pitcher segment with Cory, Mike and special guest Nando Di Fino of CBS Sports!

-Zach

Julio Teheran  (vs. MIN, @NYM)

After getting off to a shaky start to the season, Teheran has settled down nicely, allowing three runs or less in each of his last four starts while posting a superb 14-to-1 K/BB ratio. He gets a pair of appealing matchups next week, as the Twins are a mid-pack offense while the Mets’ lineup has struggled mightily of late. Pitch.

Scott Kazmir  (vs. SEA, @BOS)

There’s no denying that Kazmir has pitched fairly well over his last four starts, but I still don’t trust him to the point where I’d roll him out there in a two-start week where one of the matchups (@BOS) is very scary. This is a situation where one blowup could ruin the entire week. I need to see more. Ditch.

Carlos Villanueva  (@PIT, @CIN)

The month of May has not been kind to Villanueva, who has gone 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in three starts. And he will likely be the odd man out once Matt Garza returns from the DL, which will probably happen sometime next week. While there’s no way I’d start him in a mixed league, you can do a lot worse in an NL-only. Villanueva still offers some strikeout upside, the @PIT matchup is a decent one, and he actually pitched very well at Great American Ball Park back in April. But like I said, in a mixed league I’m passing.

Bartolo Colon  (@TEX, @HOU)

Colon’s the type of pitcher who can dominate or get roughed up by any lineup. His strikeouts are down this year but you’ve got to like the two walks over 47 1/3 innings! On the other hand, you can’t like the seven homers through eight starts. In a 12-team mixed league, I’d take the conservative route and ditch since the @TEX matchup certainly comes with disaster potential. But in a deeper mixed league and of course an AL-only, I think I’d give it a shot and hope he gets through the first outing in decent shape before tossing a gem @HOU. Then again, would you be at all surprised if the reverse happens?

Wade Davis  (@HOU, vs. LAA)

Although Davis has managed to piece together a few quality performances this year, he’s also gotten lit up on a bunch of occasions. I’m not a big fan of these feast or famine types, especially when their strikeout rate is nothing special and their WHIP is 1.89. Even in a deeper mixed league and despite the semi-attractive matchups, I’d let Davis be someone else’s problem. Ditch.

Shaun Marcum  (vs. CIN, vs. ATL)

I had high hopes for Marcum heading into the season, as one of the more consistent yet underrated hurlers in the Majors over the past few years would get a chance to pitch his home games at Citi Field. But neck and shoulder injuries kept him sidelined for almost the entire month of April and he’s kicked off his Mets’ career in mediocre fashion. And that’s being kind. The good news is that his latest outing (6 2/3 IP, 2 ER) on the road against the Cardinals was his best one to date, so maybe Marcum is finally putting it together. That said, both of these matchups are very tough, even at home. In an NL-only league, you probably don’t have many better options, so you’ll have to start Marcum out of necessity. But in a mixed league, I’m staying away. Keep an eye on Marcum though. He could be mixed league relevant rather soon.

CORY’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Saunders @ McAllister

Morrow @ Phelps – playing it safe on Morrow ‘til he proves he’s healthy

R. Hernandez @ Jurrjens

Santiago @ Blanton

Dempster @ Diamond

An. Sanchez @ Grimm – tough matchup for Grimm, play it safe

Big Erv @ Milone – love Milone at home

Hefner @ Feldman

Arroyo @ Kendrick – Kendrick has to be trusted until he proves otherwise

Bedard @ Burnett

Capuano @ Medlen

McCarthy @ Koehler – McCarthy appears to be “back”

Estrada @ Lynn – Estrada was superb last time, but this ain’t the Pirates

Lincecum @ Nicasio

Zimmermann @ Stults

                                                                                                                                               SUNDAY

King Felix @ Masterson

Dickey @ Sabathia

Moore @ Tillman

Lackey @ P. Hernandez – Lackey has been solid, back on the radar

Peavy @ Vargas – Vargas worth a look in deeper leagues, though

Mendoza @ Griffin

Fister @ Holland

Miley @ Nolasco

Magill @ Minor

Bailey @ Pettibone

Norris @ Locke – Locke worth a shot at home vs. Astros

Lohse @ Gast

Gee @ Wood – Gee a pure home/away matchup play

Haren @ Cashner

Zito @ Chatwood

                                                                                                                                             MONDAY

Iwakuma @ Kazmir – gotta go with Kazmir at home vs. Mariners

TBD (TB) @ Ortiz

Hughes @ F. Garcia – tough matchup for Hughes, but I’ll take the shot on the road

Colon @ Lindblom

Lester @ Axelrod

Guthrie @ Harrell

Correia @ Teheran

Cueto @ Marcum – whose spot is Cueto taking, Cingrani or Leake??

Hamels @ Sanabia – mismatch of the day, so Marlins will probably win 7-2

Kershaw @ Gallardo

Corbin @ Garland

S. Miller @ Marquis

Detwiler @ Vogelsong – Detwiler not 100%, Vogelsong simply terrible

***ZACH SAYS “For Sunday, I’d take a chance on Tillman. He’s now strung together five straight quality starts and the Rays’ offense currently ranks next to last in the AL in runs scored on the road. For Monday, there’s no way I’m starting Hughes coming off his dreadful performance vs. the Mariners. In fact, I wouldn’t be opposed to flat out dropping him in any mixed league. He’s been way too erratic this year.”

CORY’S PICKS

Hellickson @ Hammel – both have pitched better than the ERA would show

Maurer @ Jimenez – Ubaldo’s velocity is up, mechanics are tighter and it’s the Mariners

Buehrle @ Kuroda

Porcello @ Tepesch

Buchholz @ Worley

Sale @ Wilson – Wilson isn’t very good, but frankly neither are the White Sox

Shields @ Parker – Parker slowly rounding into form

Harvey @ Jackson

Cingrani @ Lee – important outing for Cingrani with Cueto back on Monday

Lyles @ Gomez

Cahill @ Slowey – back on Slowey train at home despite blowup in L.A.

Ryu @ Maholm

W. Peralta @ J. Garcia

Bumgarner @ De La Rosa – not sold on DLR yet, not at home

G. Gonzalez @ Smith

Zach here,

Alright, the time has finally arrived for an updated Pitch or Ditch category chart! Click on the link below to download the PDF

POD Chart 5-15

A quick reminder as to how the chart works:

We’ve divided all of the current starting rotation pitchers in the Majors into five groups: Aces, Grads (pitchers who should not be dropped and can be started almost all the time), Pitch or Ditch (guys who you should be picking up to start in favorable matchups but do not deserve a regular roster spot), DTMs (guys who we are fed up with and would not start under any circumstances for the time being) and Indifferents (guys who we don’t feel any ill-will towards but who just aren’t that good). Keep in mind that we’re basing this on a standard 12-team mixed league.

Here are the changes we’ve made to the chart since the mid-April version:

PROMOTIONS

Harvey grad to ace

Bailey PoD to grad

Jimenez DTM to PoD

Kazmir indifferent to PoD

Grimm indifferent to PoD

Feldman indifferent to PoD

Slowey indifferent to PoD

DEMOTIONS

Vogelsong grad to PoD

Jackson grad to PoD

Niese grad to PoD

Beckett grad to PoD

Worley PoD to indifferent

Sanabia PoD to indifferent

By the way, Ryan Vogelsong has completely ruined the ERA/WHIP of two of my teams (fortunately, I had the sense to bench him Wednesday night). Personally, he’s DTM, but to be nice, we’ve listed him as PoD. He’s on a short leash though.

Feel free to post your questions and/or comments.