It's official. The 2010 fantasy baseball season is here. Why do I say this? Because the MLB.com Fantasy Preview is up and running, complete with rankings, in-depth analysis, projections, dollar values and cheat sheets. Check it out.
The slow mock draft is certainly living up to its name. Click Here for the most recent results.
March 6th: NY First Pitch Forum, Time and Location TBD
March 26th: AL Tout Wars Draft, 4:00pm ET @ Citi Field
March 27th: NFBC NY, Citi Field
March 28th: NL and Mixed Tout, Citi Field
Continue checking the blog for updates and an upcoming big announcement
Follow the 411 on Twitter @fantasy411, @schwartzstops, @fantasymlb ______________________________________________________________________________
Discuss
one player who you will be targeting in the very late rounds as a cheap source
for speed.
Lastings Milledge is something of a forgotten man
after being run out of two organizations, and he was further hampered last
season by a broken finger, but he's stolen 28 bases in his last 162 Major
League games going back to 2008, along with a .278 average and 17 homers. He
seems comfortable in Pittsburgh,
especially now that he's been moved to the less stressful defensive assignment
in left field, and he's still only 24. Milledge's talent has never been in
question, so with a full season of health and calm this could be year he starts
converting those skills into big-time fantasy results.
-Cory
Want to fill your
middle-infield spot with a burgeoning young shortstop with top-flight speed who
will cost you next to nothing? If so, give Everth Cabrera a call. The impressive 23-year-old sophomore is
riding high after swiping 25 bases in just 103 games during his maiden voyage
through the bigs last season. And don't attribute it to beginner's luck,
as Cabrera's track record more than backs up his strong debut, as he pilfered a
******** 73 bags through the Minors in the 2008 season. If that's not
enough, the fleet-footed Padre has proven he can get on base, as evidenced by
his .324 OBP in the '09 campaign. Don't let this middle-infield sleeper
who can carry you in steals slip through the cracks in the late rounds of your
draft.
-Dave Feldman,
MLB.com Fantasy
Dexter Fowler
just got selected with the fourth pick of the 19th round in the
ongoing slow mock draft over at fantasybaseballtrademarket.com. That's awfully
late for a former top prospect who finished his rookie season with 27 stolen
bases in only 135 games. The switch-hitting centerfielder averaged a little under
28 steals a year over his final three Minor League seasons, proving that his
2009 performance was no fluke. Fowler's struggles vs. righties (.240 AVG) might
scare off some owners, but let's remember that the kid is still only 23. so
there's plenty of room for improvement. His ability to hit from both sides of
the plate should only help him to make the necessary adjustments. As for the
crowded outfield situation in Colorado,
I'm not all that concerned. Fowler will surely receive enough at-bats to make a
legitimate steals impact. No way will I let him fall this far in my drafts.
March 6th: NY First Pitch Forum, Time and Location TBD
March 26th: AL Tout Wars Draft, 4:00pm ET @ Citi Field
March 27th: NFBC NY, Citi Field
March 28th: NL and Mixed Tout, Citi Field
Continue checking the blog for updates and an upcoming big announcement
Which starting pitcher from this recent Top 30 ADP list on Mock Draft
Central is being overvalued the most?
Tim Lincecum
Zack Greinke
CC Sabathia
Felix
Hernandez
Roy Halladay
Dan Haren
Johan Santana
Justin
Verlander
Cliff Lee
Adam
Wainwright
Javier
Vazquez
Jon Lester
Chris
Carpenter
Josh Johnson
Tommy Hanson
Jake Peavy
Matt Cain
Josh Beckett
Yovani
Gallardo
Cole Hamels
Ubaldo
Jimenez
Clayton
Kershaw
Ricky Nolasco
John Lackey
Chad Billingsley
A.J. Burnett
Matt Garza
James Shields
Jair Jurrjens
Jered Weaver
From a talent standpoint, there's not a lot to not like about Javier
Vazquez...he's coming off a season in which he posted a career-best 2.87 ERA with
his best strikeout totals and rates since 2003, averaging a strikeout per inning
and nearly six per walk. However, there are just as many warning signs with
him: he'll turn 34 this season and has plenty of mileage on his arm, he's
posted an ERA below 4.67 only once in four career seasons in the AL (including
a dismal 4.91 ERA in his only other season with the Yankees, in 2004), and he's
leaving pitcher-friendly Turner Field for homer-happy Yankee Stadium, where his
occasional gopheritis could become a real issue. More importantly though, he
lacks the consistently high-quality track record of many of the other pitchers
on this list. I wouldn't mind having Javy as my #2 in a mixed league this
season, but not at an ace price.
-Cory
First off let me say
that Tommy Hanson is in man crush city for me. While everyone was getting draft
happy with Price and Wieters, I quietly sat back and plucked the big fella off
the wire in May and reaped the rewards. With all that said, notice how we are
talking about a second year player? Let's assume 180 IP for Hanson in '10. While
I expect them to be quality high K innings, do we want a guy as our "ace" who
would be ranked in the 50's in IP? Sabathia, Greinke and Lincecum were in the
220's in IP. That's an ace! To me, Hanson as the 15th best pitcher
in baseball is a reach, especially if the Braves feel they need to baby him a
little in his second big league season. He's not that far off but this could be
an issue just because he can't deliver as much as other aces pulling workhorse
innings.
-Siano
Maybe this is just personal bias kicking in as "Big Game
James" burned me last year in my money league, but James Shields at #28 seems a
bit high. He's coming off a very inconsistent season that included an awful
second half (5.16 ERA1.42 WHIP). While
Shields did manage to post a solid 2.13 BB/9 rate, this represented a
significant increase from the 1.67 mark he recorded in 2008. I'd gladly opt for
Jurrjens, Weaver, Wandy or Oswalt (the latter two do not appear on this list)
over Shields, who looks to be regressing rather than progressing.
Well folks, what I thought would be a weekly series has
turned out to be a little bit less frequent than that, but I'm back to pick up
the discussion on how to value and rank players on draft day. First, to shake
off the rust, here's a quick review of what we've covered so far:
Or, to recap it all in a sentence, projections are important
to establish basic expectations for players, which we can then use to measure
them against other players in context to obtain relative values. This is done
by developing projections and the resultant Standings Gain Points (SGP) for
each player, then adjusting the raw SGP values based on position scarcity to determine
the relative value of a 30-steal shortstop compared to a 30-homer outfielder or
a 30-save closer.
To illustrate this, let's use NFBC, since that's the main
league I focus on in my draft prep; it's a 15-team mixed with a 30-round draft,
although I only base my player valuations on the 23-man active rosters, or 345
total players... everyone beyond that is essentially replacement level by
definition.
To illustrate how player stats have different values at
different positions, let's look at two positions with very different offensive
standards, first base and catcher. Here is a pair of players from each position
with the projected stats and raw SGP (that is, ranked against all players, not
by position) that I used to prepare for my NFBC draft last season:
NAMEAVGRHRRBISBSGP (raw)
Pujols,
Albert.33711938125611.80
Garko,
Ryan.28159166510.49
NAMEAVGRHRRBISBSGP (raw)
Martin,
Russell.293891673144.60
Teagarden,
Taylor.2503711391-3.10
Hey,
it was a lousy projection on Martin, but a lot of people were wrong about him!
Anyway, Pujols (right) is clearly far ahead of Martin by any objective measure, as well
he should be. But a 15-team league only requires somewhere between 15-25 first
basemen to be drafted, depending on how many corner picks are first basemen,
whereas a minimum of 30 catchers must be selected in a two-catcher format such
as this. You need more catchers, and they generally provide less offense than first basemen, so you need to adjust for this scarcity.
To
adjust for position scarcity, use the replacement-level player at each position
as "0" and then adjust each higher-ranked player's SGP accordingly. That's where Garko and Teagarden come in; Garko was the lowest-ranked (by raw SGP) first baseman who made the
cut in the top 345, while Teagarden was my 30th-ranked catcher.
(Technically,
replacement level should be determined based on the highest-ranked undrafted
player, but as you get lower on each position list, players become more
interchangeable, so using these guys for this demonstration won't significantly
adjust the math.)
After doing this math, Pujols'
weighted SGP becomes his raw value (11.80) minus the replacement value (0.49),
while the same holds true for the catchers. Let's look at the same pair of
players with those positional SGP adjustments made:
NAMEAVGRHRRBISBSGP (weighted)
Pujols,
Albert.33711938125611.31
Garko,
Ryan.28159166510.00
NAMEAVGRHRRBISBSGP (weighted)
Martin,
Russell.293891673147.70
Teagarden,
Taylor.25037113910.00
Pujols
is of course still ahead of Martin (right), but the gap has closed from 7.40 SGP to
3.61 SGP... in fact, Pujols actually lost a few fractions off his raw SGP because
the replacement level player at his position was still above the overall
replacement level for the entire 345 player universe. Pujols remains near the
top of the pack, but instead of Martin being a mid-round player based on these
projections, he moves up into the mid single-digit rounds.
Repeat
this exercise for all of the 345 players projected to be drafted, then re-rank
by these weighted SGP values, and you have a player rankings list that adjusts
for position scarcity.
One
further step you can consider is tweaking the SGP adjustments to try and tease
out how your league values saves, steals or other categories... for instance, I
weight my rankings against average draft position (ADP) data from other sources
to try and determine which players will be overvalued or undervalued. Certainly
the results of any real draft may vary greatly from ADP, but given that the
exercise of draft prep is less about figuring out the best players than trying
to figure out when is the right time to pick them, it's another valuable step
of the process.
Next
week we'll focus a little more on closers, because getting a couple of the
top-shelf is a big part of the basic 411 strategy...
Lastly, be sure to catch today's podcast. The audio version is already out. Mike and Cory discussed the Rick Ankiel and Octavio Dotel signings while touching on the mock draft.
-Zach
***Follow the 411 on Twitter @fantasy411, @schwartzstops, @fantasymlb
Rotoman's The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2010 is hitting the streets. Look for it at Barnes and Noble, Walmart and other newsstands and grocery stores. Check out the How I Won pieces by Lawr Michaels (oh the pain!), Rotowire's Chris Liss, Masterball's Brian Walton, Hardball Times' Derek Carty and others. And my Picks and Pans join those of Cory Schwartz, Ron Shandler, Alex Patton, and whole bunch of other names you know, and some you don't, along with 1,400 profiles, Rotoman's cheat sheets, rookies, and an expert-laden mock draft. It will be the only magazine with Derek Jeter on the cover.
now on to our question of the week............
Which position do you think is most important to address early on draft day?
The fantasy situation at second base is just ugly this year. There are a handful of proven, reliable top-shelf options - Utley, Kinsler, Pedroia, Roberts, Phillips - but a litany of question marks after that. Which Robinson Cano will we see this season? Is Aaron Hill a 36-homer guy or a 17-homer guy? Can Ben Zobrist do it again? Will Dan Uggla kill the value of his power numbers by hitting .243? Is Howie Kendrick ever going to truly break through? Just two or three years ago there were several intriguing and inexpensive options at the position, but now the list of questions is far longer than the selection of trustworthy answers, so I'm going to try and grab one of the top tier early this year if I can.
-Cory
Since Cory did so well with second base I'll say catcher. At least second base has Utley and Kinsler. Catcher is Mauer and Martinez? A position that seemed to be coming back to glory a few years back and had a top 5 of Mauer, Martin, McCann, Soto and Posada now is an army of three with Mauer going as high as third overall and only as low as 22nd according to mockdraftcentral.com. Martinez and McCann average out to 22nd and 42nd overall respectively. After that, start scrolling. If Martin and Soto can bounce back and Posada can stay fresh with some days at DH we could see a revival. Don't forget about Montero, Suzuki, Iannetta and Wieters, but overall this is weak.
-Siano
I'm not at all comfortable with the choices at shortstop this year.The list of risky picks begins with Jose Reyes, who as recently as last season was a legitimate top 5 overall selection. Since most of his value lies in his speed, a lingering hamstring injury that sidelined him for the majority of '09 is flat out scary.Jimmy Rollins rebounded nicely in the second half last year but let's not forget about that miserable first half. Were his early struggles an aberration or should we expect similar inconsistencies in 2010? We all know Jason Bartlett can swipe 30-plus bags and post a solid average, but can he reach the 14 home run mark again after hitting a combined eight homers from 2006 through 2008? The questions go on and on. Stephen Drew and, to a lesser degree, Alexei Ramirez were huge disappointments in 2009. Miguel Tejada is old. Asdrubal Cabrera and Elvis Andrus aren't proven enough. If I can't get Hanley or Tulo, I'm prepared to overpay for Jeter or even Rollins. At least I know that when all is said in done I'll be getting quality numbers. Let someone else take a chance on those other guys.
Here are my thoughts on the latest moves made in MLB. If you missed my last two posts on moves click hereand here.
Joel Pineiro signs with Angels: Doesn't walk anyone but doesn't strike anyone out either. Sweet WHIP and Wins last year but look at the previous five seasons. Turned down NL for AL. Smells like a trap to me. I'm passing unless on wire.
Octavio Dotel signs with Pirates: He brings the heat no doubt about it. Would love him as my #3 but could earn as a #2. He'll start rocketing in ADP ASAP.
Bengie Molina signs with Giants: 20 HR and 80 RBI seems like a safe bet again. Too bad for those with Posey in keeper leagues. Giants need to stay in the West or Wild Card hunt for him to finish year in SF.
Jose Valverde signs with Tigers: What Tigers team are we getting in 2010? If it's the good one he can have a big year. Solid #2 CL but will probably end up a #1 for a lot of owners due to lack of depth at the position.
Vladimir Guerrero signs with Rangers: Doesn't qualify for the OF in most leagues so he immediately is off my radar, but people will not be able to resist the idea of him staying healthy with 81 games in Texas.
Aroldis Chapman signs with Reds: So many questions. A must draft in NL only. In mixed it's a potential albatross sucking up a spot on your bench.
Adam LaRoche signs with D-Backs: Guess Brandon Allen isn't ready. LaRoche is perfect for those looking to get .275-25-85 out of CI slot.
Vincente Padilla signs with Dodgers: If getting into fights with teammates were a stat he'd be a first rounder. No doubt he has NL only value, mixed value TBD.
Doug Davis signs with Brewers: Easy guy to root for but the quintessential fantasy spot starter.
Brett Myers signs with Astros: They say he's proven he can pitch in a hitters park. What games were they watching? YPNM.
Aubrey Huff signs with Giants: People will roll dice he repeats his 08' year. May be worth the risk since his price could be very low, but I'm shying away. Giants have a weird looking offense.
Kevin Kouzmanoff traded to A's for Scott Hairston and others: lateral move for Kouzmanoff he's just not attractive to me in fantasy baseball. Hairston I like due to double digit homer and steals potential. Will be low cost medium reward type guy.
Casey Kotchman traded to Mariners for Bill Hall: Ummmmm nevermind.
Ryan Church signs with Pirates: Sleeper value since he'll be drafted as a backup but could get FT play should Clement or Jones falter. Nice $1 player in an NL only. Monday/Thursday in a mixed for now.
Scott Podsednik signs with Royals: He was huge for me in AL Tout last year so he has a special place in my heart. May be pricey even though one dimensional because he looks good for at least 30 SB.
Jack Cust signs with A's: He is who we thought he is.
Eric Byrnes designated for assignment: If healthy he can be a huge sleeper this year. The guy had 50 SB and 100+ runs in 07'. Seems long ago but it isn't. Monitor him.
Ramon Castro signs with White Sox: Saw him eat chicken wings once.
Brendan Donnelly signs with Pirates: Was a tiny tiny sleeper in Pittsburgh until Dotel signed.
Jerry Hairston Jr. signs with Padres: Played over 10 but under 20 games at 3B, SS and OF. Has $1 value in NL only, but not a good Monday/Thursday guy vs. a lefty if he's only backing up righties.
Daniel Cabrera signs with White Sox: if there was one guy that I could get for $1 and he would blossom into a star it would be this amazingly frustrating gentleman.
Eric Hinske signs with Braves: Start printing the WS tickets, Hinske is the title magnet. Waiver wire guy at best.
Jason Botts signs with White Sox/ Dan Johnson signs with Rays: "nickel" (crickets)
Khalil Greene signs with Rangers: There is this little voice in me saying $1 guy on draft day but why? Because he'll get two weeks at 3B when Young gets hurt and another two at 2B when Kinsler does?
Hope you all enjoyed your long weekend. Just a reminder to check out the ongoing mock draft that Mike and Cory are participating in, complete with comments from many of the "league" members. They're currently in Round 14.
Yesterday,
Zach and I were trying to come up with a good topic for me to blog about. The
news is kind of slow and the mock draft is moving along so I was dealing with
some writer's block. About an hour later, Zach asked me what I did differently
in '08 when I finished 6th compared to '09 when I finished 2nd
and just a point shy of 1st. My immediate response was nothing since
I prepped the same way and had the same strategy. For pitching, it was to
get an ace and then tier the rest of my pitching and trust my judgment that
they will bring in way more value than their draft day price. That clearly
worked judging by the fact that I had 50.5 points in pitching in '08, good for
2nd, and 55.0 points in '09, which was obviously good for 1st. For a
while there I had 60.0 in pitching but that was too hard to maintain when
Halladay and Edwin Jackson went cold and Jenks got hurt.
On
offense, it was a little different. Yes I had the same strategy but for some
reason in '08 my pitching magic didn't make its way to the other side. Two
obvious reasons in my opinion. One was the money I spent on A-Rod in '08
hamstrung me when building my O and even more importantly was the injury to
Carlos Quentin shortly after I acquired him. This was the Quentin knocking his
wrist on his bat madness that cost him the rest of the season as he was making
an MVP push. I can't say for sure I would have won but I will say I most likely
had the only chance to catch Sam Walker, getting within single
digit points with a month to go, when Quentin went down on
September 1st. The funny part of it all is that '09 brought more injuries than
'08 by a long shot. This time I drafted Quentin for $25 and that turned out to
be a bust but I was able to build a better offense without spending big on
A-Rod which was a convenient decision because of the hip injury. I also had a
crushing injury on a player I acquired when Torii Hunter went down for a
month-plus on July 8th. This gave me plenty of time to scramble and hit the
wire and I also had some players coming back so I sustained. Everyone deals
with injuries at some point in a fantasy season. I'd like to think if Hunter
stays healthy I take AL Tout, but it just doesn't work that way.
The moral of
the story is have a plan, stick with it and hope it works. In my three years
playing AL Tout, I've finished 9th, 6th and 2nd, so as I get better
with my plan so does my place in the standings. The real test comes this year
since the only way to improve is to win the whole damn thing. Stay tuned.
