Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, August 1-3

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411 Midseason All-Surprise Team

411 Midseason All-Disappointment Team

Updated Pitch or Ditch Category Chart (7/22)

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Julio Teheran

ZACH’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Ventura @ Buehrle – Buehrle coming off shaky outing and I don’t like this matchup.

Moore @ Kelly

Heaney @ Greinke – Heaney has gone at least six innings while allowing no more than two runs in each of his first six starts this year.

An. Sanchez @ Gausman – Gausman worth monitoring but I’m not fully comfortable with him just yet.

Wisler @ Nola – Intriguing matchup of 22-year-olds.

TBD (NYY) @ Danks

Hendricks @ Garza – Hendricks has been inconsistent lately but I’ll throw him out there versus Gomez-less and Parra-less Brewers.

Montgomery @ Gibson – Gibson struggling of late but the matchup is right.

Cole @ Iglesias

Hellickson @ Keuchel

J. Ross @ deGrom – Ross very impressive through his first five big league starts.

TBD (SD) @ TBD (MIA)

J. De La Rosa @ Lynn

TBD (SF) @ Hamels

Co. Anderson @ Brooks – Anderson turning back into a pumpkin.

SUNDAY

Volquez @ Price

Morton @ TBD (CIN) – Passing on the scuffling Morton in hitter-friendly park.

Shields @ Fernandez

D. Norris @ Jimenez

Karns @ Miley – Karns 2 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts.

Teheran @ Morgan – If you’re not going to pitch Teheran here, you’re never going to pitch him.

Nova @ Samardzija – Favorable matchup for Nova but it sounds like he’s not fully healthy.

TBD (CHC) @ Lohse

Iwakuma @ Pelfrey – Tough to trust Iwakuma right now.

Ray @ McHugh

Flande @ Garcia – Garcia has pitched well when healthy.

Heston @ M. Perez

Bauer @ Gray – Bauer bounced back in a big way his last time out.

Wilson @ Latos – Four straight quality starts for Latos and he now gets a better supporting lineup.

Zimmermann @ Syndergaard

MONDAY

Big Erv @ Dickey – On the road against the Jays is pretty much an automatic ditch for all non-aces.

Lester @ Liriano

Godley @ Fister – Fister a bit risky, but I’ll go for it.

Cain @ Foltynewicz – Cain too unreliable for mixed league purposes, even in a favorable matchup like this one. Foltynewicz a sneaky play in NL-only leagues.

Colon @ Koehler

McCullers @ Lewis – Scary matchup for Lewis.

Odorizzi @ Quintana

T. Ross @ Peralta – Tasty matchup for Peralta.

King Felix @ Butler

Kluber @ Richards

Tillman @ Chavez – Not sold on Tillman’s resurgence.

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Zach’s Two-Start Pitcher Notes – Week of 8/3

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411 Midseason All-Surprise Team

411 Midseason All-Disappointment Team

Updated Pitch or Ditch Category Chart (7/22)

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Tom Koehler

As is the Friday routine, here’s a sampling of my latest two-start pitcher article. For the full version, click on the link at the bottom of this post.

Need to upgrade your fantasy starting staff? Or maybe gaining points in wins and strikeouts is your main goal? Then consider these pitchers, who are in line to make two starts each in Week 18.

12-team mixed leagues

Tom Koehler (vs. NYM, @ATL)

Prior to Koehler’s shaky performance against the Nationals on Wednesday, he had allowed two or fewer runs in six straight starts, so I’m comfortable with giving him a pass for one poor outing against a high-end offense. Look for far better results next week, when Koehler faces the Mets, the third-lowest scoring team in the Majors, followed by a Braves club that ranks 24th in the Majors in runs and last in homers.

Deeper mixed leagues

Wily Peralta (vs. SD, vs. STL)

Following a two-plus month stint on the DL, Peralta delivered a strong performance on Tuesday, tossing six innings of two-run ball against a potent Giants lineup. Let’s not forget that this is a pitcher who won 17 games last season to go along with a 3.53 ERA. In other words, he carries enough of a track record to suggest that he can serve as a quality back end of the rotation fantasy option from here on out. Don’t be surprised if he soon enters the 12-team mixed league picture. For now though, owners in deeper mixed leagues need to make sure that Peralta is not on the waiver wire. The Cardinals and Padres rank 18th and 22nd respectively in the Majors in runs scored and 15th and 29th in OPS, so he’s certainly worth the risk for the two-start week.

To read the complete article, CLICK HERE

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Pitch or Ditch for Friday, July 31

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411 Midseason All-Surprise Team

411 Midseason All-Disappointment Team

Updated Pitch or Ditch Category Chart (7/22)

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David Phelps

CORY’S PICKS

Farmer @ W. Chen – Chen is solid but the Tigers chew up lefties so I’ll play it safe.

W. Perez @ Buchanan

Cueto @ Hutchison

G. Gonzalez @ Harvey

E. Ramirez @ E. Rodriguez – Boston’s offense has been very erratic.

Locke @ Lorenzen – Sniff around this one in DEEP leagues.

Despaigne @ Phelps – Blue-plate special vs. righty-heavy Padres.

Bumgarner @ N. Martinez

Eovaldi @ Rodon

Hammel @ Jungmann

Walker @ Milone – Anyone’s guess on Walker at this point.

R. De La Rosa @ Feldman – Homer-prone Rubby visits baseball’s #1 homer offense. Ditch.

Kendrick @ Wacha

Salazar @ Graveman

Santiago @ Kershaw – Santiago could get 10 K’s, or take a 4th inning KO.

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Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, July 30

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411 Midseason All-Surprise Team

411 Midseason All-Disappointment Team

Updated Pitch or Ditch Category Chart (7/22)

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Chris Bassitt

CORY’S PICKS

Cashner @ Niese

Scherzer @ Haren – Haren’s last start as a Marlin?

Miller @ Harang

Simon @ M. Gonzalez

Duffy @ Estrada – Estrada has been excellent this year, the previous blowout notwithstanding.

Sale @ S. Wright

Burnett @ Holmberg

Rusin @ C. Martinez

Sabathia @ Gallardo – Man, Gallardo fell back to Earth with a thud.

Arrieta @ Nelson

Shoemaker @ Kazmir

Happ @ Hughes

Carrasco @ Bassitt – I like the gamble on Bassitt at home.

***ZACH SAYS “Jimmy Nelson is 5-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last six starts and the Cubs offense has been inconsistent of late. I’ll say pitch. Agree on rest.”

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Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, July 29

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CLICK HERE to listen to our latest podcasts (7/23 is most recent)

411 Midseason All-Surprise Team

411 Midseason All-Disappointment Team

Updated Pitch or Ditch Category Chart (7/22)

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Chris Tillman

CORY’S PICKS

Verlander @ Archer

Guthrie @ Kluber

Liriano @ Big Erv – Pirates are scoring more lately but Big Erv has been excellent since his return.

Butler @ Lester

Corbin @ King Felix – Mariners are heating up so I’ll pass on Corbin.

Fiers @ Peavy – Fiers’ last start as a Brewer?

Foltynewicz @ Tillman – Tillman has turned it around big-time.

J. Williams @ Dickey – Pickin’ on the Phillies offense.

Quintana @ Porcello – One good start doesn’t make me trust Porcello again.

T. Ross @ Colon – Ross’ last start as a Padre?

Fister @ Koehler – Koehler is on a serious tear.

Tanaka @ Lewis – Risky start for Tanaka vs. Rangers’ lefty mashers, but he’s a must-use when healthy.

Richards @ McCullers

DeSclafani @ Lackey

Chavez @ Kershaw – Chavez may be running out of gas.

***ZACH SAYS “I know Colon has been very inconsistent lately, but he is coming off a dominant performance against a tough Dodgers lineup and has notched three quality starts in his last four outings. Pitching at home in Citi Field against the Padres is about as favorable as it gets from a matchups standpoint. I’d give Bartolo a shot here. Agree on rest.”

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Pitch or Ditch for Tuesday, July 28

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CLICK HERE to listen to our latest podcasts (7/23 is most recent)

411 Midseason All-Surprise Team

411 Midseason All-Disappointment Team

Updated Pitch or Ditch Category Chart (7/22)

Zach’s Two-Start Pitcher Notes – Week of 7/27

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Matt Cain

CORY’S PICKS

Teheran @ Jimenez – Not trusting Teheran on the road vs. a tough offense.

Morgan @ Doubront

Samardzija @ Miley – Shark’s last start with the ChiSox?

Young @ Bauer

Shields @ Syndergaard – Shields’ last start as a Padre?

Zimmermann @ Fernandez – Game of the night!

Price @ Odorizzi – Price’s last start as a Tiger?

Capuano @ Perez

Flande @ Beeler

Morton @ Pelfrey

Wilson @ McHugh

Leake @ Garcia – Leake is pitching well enough to take a shot here.

Godley @ Iwakuma

Gray @ B. Anderson

Peralta @ Cain – Too much risk here for the respective reward possibilities.

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Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, July 25-27

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CLICK HERE to listen to our latest podcasts (7/23 is most recent)

411 Midseason All-Surprise Team

411 Midseason All-Disappointment Team

Updated Pitch or Ditch Category Chart (7/22)

Zach’s Two-Start Pitcher Notes – Week of 7/27

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Joe Ross

ZACH’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Simon @ S. Wright

Hamels @ Arrieta

Bassitt @ Bumgarner

Estrada @ Happ – Estrada is on a roll.

M. Gonzalez @ E. Ramirez – Nice matchup for Gonzalez but he’s been too inconsistent lately. I like Ramirez but will play it safe here.

G. Gonzalez @ Burnett – Gio has pitched at least six innings while allowing two runs or less in each of his last four starts.

Sale @ Carrasco

Feldman @ Duffy

Sabathia @ Milone

TBD (LAD) @ Harvey

Miller @ C. Martinez

Cueto @ Rusin – Cueto’s final start for the Reds?

Jungmann @ R. De La Rosa – Tough to bench Jungmann right now, regardless of the matchup. Brewers scoring a lot of runs lately, so I’ll ditch Rubby.

Phelps @ Kennedy – Favorable matchup for both.

Gallardo @ Santiago – Gallardo a toss-up, but he’s been struggling of late and the Angels can hit.

SUNDAY

B. Anderson @ deGrom

Rodon @ Salazar – Still waiting to see more consistency from Rodon.

W. Chen @ Moore – Bench but don’t cut Moore.

J. Ross @ Cole – Going for it with Ross, who just so happened to dominate the Pirates back on 6/19.

Keuchel @ Ventura

Eovaldi @ Gibson – Not too confident in either.

Wisler @ Wacha – Wisler certainly worth monitoring but I’ll sit this one out.

Nola @ Hammel – Nola was very impressive in his big league debut and the Cubs’ lineup has underperformed this season.

N. Martinez @ Heaney

Graveman @ Hudson – Graveman has been shaky lately.

Buehrle @ Walker – Terrible matchup for Walker, who has allowed at least five runs in each of his last three starts.

Latos @ Despaigne – Latos has a 1.35 ERA and 0.70 WHIP over his last three starts.

Lorenzen @ Kendrick

Garza @ Hellickson

Greene @ E. Rodriguez – Hard to have much confidence in Rodriguez coming off blowup vs. Angels.

MONDAY

Al. Wood @ Gausman – Not a promising matchup for the up and down Wood.

Danks @ Kelly

Volquez @ Co. Anderson – The Anderson regression process is already underway.

An. Sanchez @ Karns – Still not sold on Karns in tougher matchups.

Nova @ Harrison – @TEX isn’t as scary of a matchup as it used to be.

J. De La Rosa @ Hendricks – Hendricks has a 2.81 ERA through eight home starts this season.

Iglesias @ Lynn

Ray @ Montgomery – Favorable matchup for Ray but I’ll pass.

Lohse @ Heston

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Zach’s Two-Start Pitcher Notes – Week of 7/27

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CLICK HERE to listen to our latest podcasts (7/23 is most recent)

411 Midseason All-Surprise Team

411 Midseason All-Disappointment Team

Updated Pitch or Ditch Category Chart (7/22)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Mike Leake

Zach here,

As is the Friday custom, here’s a portion of my latest two-start pitcher article. For the full version, click on the link at the bottom of this post.

Does your fantasy starting rotation need a boost? Or maybe you’re just looking to gain some ground in strikeouts? Then consider these pitchers, who are scheduled to make two starts in Week 17.

12-team mixed leagues

Chris Heston (vs. MIL, @TEX)

By now, the likelihood of Heston being available in your league, regardless of the size, is minimal, but check just in case. Although regression from his current 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP seems inevitable, Heston owners should feel comfortable starting him next week, despite a pair of challenging matchups. The Brewers’ offense has been surging of late, leading the NL in runs, homers and batting average in the month of July. The good news, however, is that Heston gets to face them at AT&T Park, where he boasts a 2.57 ERA through ten starts this season. While the road outing against the Rangers will take place in a hitter-friendly park, the Rangers offense has surprisingly performed at a far less than elite level in 2015, ranking 8th in the AL in total runs scored and 11th in runs scored at home.

Deeper mixed leagues

Wade Miley (vs. CHW, vs. TB)

After proving to be a useful mixed league starting option from 2012-2013, Miley was mediocre at best last year. This season hasn’t been any different, as he holds a 4.33 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through 20 starts. However, a 3.96 FIP suggests that some degree of poor luck could be involved when it comes to his disappointing ERA, and the 28-year-old southpaw has notched six quality starts in his last eight outings. Being that his performance level has been so unpredictable from one start to the next, Miley is a risky play. But owners in deeper leagues should think about taking a flier on him as he heads into a week with a pair of favorable matchups. Both the White Sox and Rays rank in the bottom three of the AL in runs and batting average.

For the complete article, CLICK HERE

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Pitch or Ditch for Friday, July 24

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411 Midseason All-Surprise Team

411 Midseason All-Disappointment Team

Updated Pitch or Ditch Category Chart (7/22)

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Jonathon Niese

ZACH’S PICKS

J. Williams @ Lester

Scherzer @ Locke

Verlander @ Porcello – Verlander cannot be trusted right now.

Quintana @ Kluber – Not giving up on Quintana.

Thomas @ Niese – Tough matchup for Niese but equally tough to sit him.

Tillman @ Archer

Kazmir @ Guthrie

Pineda @ Hughes – Playing it safe with Hughes here.

Banuelos @ Cooney – Cooney a decent play in deep mixed/NL-only leagues though.

DeSclafani @ Butler

Nelson @ Corbin – Nelson a toss-up but D-backs are scoring a lot of runs at home. Still in wait and see mode with Corbin.

Lewis @ Tropeano

Hutchison @ King Felix – Hutchison (flu) a question mark to make this start.

Haren @ Cashner – Favorable matchup for both.

Chavez @ Peavy – Chavez has been inconsistent lately, but he’s coming off one of his better outings of the season.

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Updated PoD Category Chart (7/22)

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411 Midseason All-Surprise Team

411 Midseason All-Disappointment Team

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Astros Angels Baseball

Zach here,

I had planned on posting an updated Pitch or Ditch category chart during the week before the All-Star break. But then I figured that it would be better to wait until this week, after the post-break rotations get set. So I consulted with Cory, and sure enough, he agreed.

OK, enough talking. Here’s the PDF:

PoD Chart 7-22-15

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the chart, this is something we started doing a few years ago (special shout out to longtime 411 fan Big Barry for the framework of the idea) to help guide you not only in your Pitch or Ditch decisions but also in knowing whether or not dropping a certain pitcher would be a mistake.

We’ve divided all of the current starting rotation pitchers into five groups: Aces, Grads, PoD, DTM and Indifferent.

Aces: Fairly straightforward. Elite starting pitchers with the track record to prove it. Aces should be started 100% of the time, regardless of the opponent or the venue.

Grads: Not quite ace-caliber but also not worth dropping under any circumstances. Grads should be started 99% of the time. Or maybe 96%.

PoD: These pitchers do not deserve a permanent roster spot but should be picked up and started in favorable matchups. If their next matchup is not so favorable, feel free to drop them. Some PoD guys could earn Grad status if they string together several consecutive strong outings.

DTM: DTM pitchers are guys that we might have once liked but have repeatedly let us down to the point where we’ve had enough of them and will never pitch them again, no matter what.

Indifferent: Pitchers who are just not that good and should not be rostered.

***Note that this chart is geared towards standard 12-team mixed leagues.

And here are the changes we’ve made since the last version from early-June:

PROMOTIONS

Cole grad to ace
Santiago PoD to grad

DEMOTIONS

Zimmermann ace to grad
Pineda ace to grad
Haren grad to PoD
Fister grad to PoD
Colon grad to PoD
Ventura grad to PoD
McHugh grad to PoD
Simon POD to indifferent

Agree? Disagree? As always, feel free to comment on our choices.

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