Composite Projections Have Arrived!
Hi folks,
Attached is the first draft of this year’s composite projections, representing the average projection from 11 different providers. That’s down from the 16 sources we used last year, but still a very large sampling of what various systems expect for this upcoming season. This spreadsheet includes all players who were included in at least six (that, is more than half) of the 11 systems.
***EDITOR’S NOTE: This is the corrected version, with shortstops included.
For the uninitiated, a few helpful notes to get you started:
* First and most importantly, keep in mind that these are not predictions, and they are not “my” projections… they are averages of projections provided by multiple other systems. So if you think the numbers are too high or too low for any given player, that’s your prerogative, but don’t complain about it here! Adjust the numbers as you see fit, that’s up to you.
* As with all projections systems, playing time is key… these are unadjusted for playing time, so when you see some A-ball player projected for 500 at-bats, that’s a “what if” projection and not necessarily a prediction he will play that much. Adjust playing time as you see fit, and pro-rate all the other stats on the line to match.
* RBI’s are NOT based on the average projections; instead, they are calculated using the “Padden formula”, which is: RBI=(((1B*0.02)+(2B+3B)+(HR*3))*0.6966). This has proven in past seasons to correlate very well with “actual” RBI’s, but feel free to adjust RBI totals up or down as you see fit based on lineup spot, etc. Obviously a player batting 3rd for an NL team is likely to have more RBI’s than a leadoff hitter, all other things being equal.
* Runs and RBI’s are NOT correlated… the average team will have RBI’s on about 94-96% of their runs scored, so the run totals may be adjusted up or down on a team-wide basis to match the projected RBI’s.
* Wins and saves are not adjusted either, so this does not necessarily reflect expectations for relievers moving into starting rotations (Sale, Chapman, Bard, Feliz, etc.) or who will be the closer for each team (i.e., Guerra vs. Jansen). Adjust as you see fit.
* Teams listed are as of yesterday, February 17. The Age column is the player’s age as of July 1, the traditional midpoint of the season.
* The GxP tab includes total games played at each position for MLB and the minors (excluding the Mexican League). Position eligibility on the Batting tab is based on standard roto rules: any position at which the player appeared in 20 or more games in the previous season, or the position where the player appeared the most if less than 20 games at any one position. Players who appeared only in the minors last season are eligible only at the single position where they played the most games.
Here are some older blog posts that help explain how our projections are created, and other useful information on the topic:
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/03/03/2011-composite-projections-update/
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/02/19/2011-composite-projections-1-0/
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2010/03/07/updated-projections-372010/
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/12/22/building-better-player-projections/
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/02/19/2008-gxp-and-2009-projections/
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2008/02/15/composite-projections-are-here/
I hope this helps you all in your draft prep. I’ll post an updated set of projections in a few weeks after I tweak them for playing time, roles, run/RBI correlation, etc. Enjoy!
Thanks,
Cory
411 Glossary + MLB.com Fantasy Preview + Tout Rosters
Zach here,
A couple of years ago, Cory, Mike and I put together a glossary of both popular 411 sayings and general fantasy baseball terms. As a new season draws near, I figured I’d re-post the glossary, which should be particularly helpful to those of you who are either new to the show or new to fantasy.
Click Here to download the glossary.
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In other news, the 2012 MLB.com Fantasy Preview applet was launched yesterday. It includes over 800 player blurbs, rankings, projections and dollar values along with printable cheat sheets, so check it out!
Also, the 2012 Tout Wars lineups are set, so visit the Tout site for that info and more.
Cory’s Baseball Prospectus Chat
Hey everyone,
Just a quick note that Cory did an online chat for Baseball Prospectus today, covering all things fantasy and some other topics too! Click Here to read the full Q&A transcript.
-Zach
Mock Draft Articles
Hey guys,
The ongoing 411 slow mock draft has garnered plenty of attention of late throughout the fantasy community, so I figured I’d share these set of links. Both Lawr Michaels and I wrote articles for Mastersball about this draft and an in-depth discussion on mock draft strategy can be found under the comments section of Lawr’s piece (the top link). Lawr also wrote a follow-up article for KFFL (the bottom link). A lot of the discussion board talk centers around Cory’s strategies, so these are all fun reads!
-Zach
2012 List of 12
When is the List of 12 not really 12 guys? When it’s 28 names, like this year!
For those of you unfamiliar with the List of 12, the concept is pretty simple: we look for starting pitchers who crossed the 500 career innings barrier during the previous season, and focus on them as potential breakout candidates for the upcoming season. The theory behind this is that it takes pitchers at least a couple of seasons to fully adjust to pitching in the Majors, so in fantasy we want to find guys who are ready to have breakout seasons but might still be a little under the radar. Some of these guys stink and will continue to stink, but if you’re looking for guys who are ready to take the next step, this list is a good place to start.
The original list was only 12 guys — hence the name — but since it’s drawn each year from an objective set of rules, sometimes we get fewer or more (in this year, a lot more!) than the original dozen.
There’s someone on the list this year for every taste and style. Some of them are already top-shelf stars (Kershaw, Price) and a few are already in that next tier of fantasy notoriety (Gio, Kennedy, Romero, etc). But even with so many whose values appears to be established, there are still some values to be found.
In the spirit of the original list, here’s a quick first-blush rundown of the dozen guys who I think are ones to watch this year, who best represent the spirit behind the List of 12:
***And here’s a link to the spreadsheet
Brandon Morrow – his walk rate has declined steadily since he joined the rotation in 2009, while maintaining an outstanding strikeout rate, for a nearly 3-to-1 K-BB ratio last year. VERY bad luck on his strand rate over the past two seasons has kept his ERA deceptively high, so he may still be struggling with runners on base. But if he conquers that this season, he could be a very solid #2… I’m buying.
Max Scherzer – moderately unlucky hit and strand rates, and a spike in his HR/FB, hid Scherzer’s overall improvements last year. His strikeout rate dipped somewhat, but he cut his walk rate even further, leading to a career-best K-BB ratio above the magic 3-to-1 mark. The home run may continue to be a problem, but Comerica Park should help mask that. 2010 looks like his baseline, and his upside is that of a #2.
Gio Gonzalez – the opposite of Morrow in that his walk rate has stayed too high, but he’s improved his strikeout rate while establishing his durability. The move to the NL should help, and even though he’ll miss pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum, Nationals Park is still a very favorable venue. He might not have Morrow’s upside but he’s not far behind… buy.
Anibal Sanchez – his strikeout rate spiked, he cut down the walks and got a few more grounders, but the ERA and WHIP actually rose as his home run rate doubled. As with Scherzer, 2010 looks like his baseline, and the improved Marlins’ offense should produce many more than the 10-11 wins he’s averaged over the past two seasons. Buy.
Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy was mostly healthy in 2011 and finally produced the strong season that eluded him in Chicago and Texas. His strikeout rate wasn’t great but he was extremely stingy allowing walks, leading to a Maddux-esque 4.9 K-BB ratio. His fly-ball ratio is about average, but thanks to cavernous Oakland Coliseum he allowed only 11 homers all season. Health is still a concern, but given that he should be a very solid #3 this year.
Luke Hochevar – Hochevar rediscovered his strikeouts in the second half, so the overall decline isn’t as alarming, and he cut his walk rate considerably overall. An excellent ground ball rate suggests his home run rate should drop down somewhat too, so if it all comes together this year he should be a strong #3.
Jeff Niemann – some of his second-half improvement came from good luck in his hit and strand rates, but his groundball and strikeout rates spiked as well, while the walk rate held steady. He gets enough grounders that the home run rate should be a little lower, too. It’s hard to see an ace here, but if everything breaks right, he could take a major step forward into the #3 tier.
Justin Masterson – he already had his breakout season in 2011, and he still struggles against lefties enough to suggest that he might not be capable of much better. On the other hand, his strong ground ball rate helps him limit the long ball, and while his K-BB ratio is good-but-not-great, it did improve in the second half. He’ll be hard-pressed to match 2011 again, but he’s unlikely to blow up again, and looks like a decent #3 or strong #4 starter.
Trevor Cahill – Even though he struck out more guys than in 2010, he walked more, and cruel regression in his hit and strand rates caused his ERA to climb by over a run. However, he was on the whole essentially the same pitcher, with excellent ground ball rates and a decent K-BB ratio. He won’t be an ace, but the move to the NL – even hitter-friendly Chase Field – should help him improve upon his 2011 numbers.
Colby Lewis – Lewis was essentially the same pitcher in 2011 as he was in 2010, but inflation in his fly ball and home run rates caused his ERA to jump by three-quarters of a run. The reality is probably somewhere in between, so he’s not going to be your ace, but he’s a solid rotation filler with good strikeout upside.
Chris Volstad – a poor man’s Justin Masterson, with an excellent ground-ball rate, good-but-not-great strikeout and walk rates, struggles vs. lefties. However, consistently unlucky strand rates have conspired to keep his ERA artificially high in past seasons… if he can improve his performance with runners on base, he could take a Masterson-like step forward this year. An excellent late-round flier in any format.
Rick Porcello – The good news is, Porcello reached a career high last year with 5.1 K/9. The bad news is, that’s awful. However, his strand rates have been very unlucky over the past two seasons, so with some regression there and even a slight bump in his K-BB ratio, he could take a step forward into the #3 tier. For now, he’s a useful end-of-rotation gamble.
As for the rest:
Clayton Kershaw and David Price are aces, and Price might even come at a small discount this year. Ian Kennedy and Ricky Romero are absolutely legit, although some small step back from their 2011 numbers wouldn’t be a huge surprise. C.J. Wilson and Hiroki Kuroda are known commodities.
Jeff Karstens, Kyle Kendrick, Clayton Richard, Kevin Slowey, Jason Vargas and Randy Wells are strictly pitch-or-ditch rotation fillers, although Richard is still a terrific home/away play whenever possible. Dallas Braden is coming off arm surgery and doesn’t provide enough K’s to warrant much concern, either.
Ryan Vogelsong was an out-of-the-blue shocker last year but faded in the second half and is a poor beat to repeat this year. Edinson Volquez walks WAY too many guys, but maybe the move to PETCO will help reverse his fortunes. I’m not going to be the one who rosters him to find out, though. Finally, near-perfect game or not, Armando Galarraga is simply not very good.
Questions? Comments? Feedback? Let’s hear it!
Thanks,
Cory
411 Expert Slow Mock
Hey everyone,
It’s official, the mock draft season is in full gear. Yesterday, we started up a 13-team, 30-round expert mock with many familiar names participating. I’ll be updating the results here on a regular basis so stay tuned. Here are the picks so far. Feel free to chime in with any questions or comments you might have, general or mock draft related.
On a side note, I’m sure a lot of you are wondering when Yu Darvish will come off the board. It won’t be anytime soon, but in the meantime check out Siano’s MLB.com article on Darvish. It’s a must-read!
-Zach
MOCK DRAFT RESULTS
ROUND 1
Jeff Erickson – Matt Kemp
Zach Steinhorn – Albert Pujols
Lawr Michaels – Miguel Cabrera
Cory Schwartz – Troy Tulowitzki
Ray Flowers – Robinson Cano
Steve Gardner – Jose Bautista
Todd Zola – Joey Votto
Joe Sheehan – Justin Upton
Will Carroll – Jacoby Ellsbury
Derek VanRiper – Carlos Gonzalez
Paul Sporer – Evan Longoria
Jason Collette – Prince Fielder
Eno Sarris – Hanley Ramirez
ROUND 2
Eno Sarris – Dustin Pedroia
Jason Collette – Ian Kinsler
Paul Sporer – Jose Reyes
Derek VanRiper – Adrian Gonzalez
Will Carroll – Curtis Granderson
Joe Sheehan – Clayton Kershaw
Todd Zola – Andrew McCutchen
Steve Gardner – Justin Verlander
Ray Flowers – Mark Teixeira
Cory Schwartz – Josh Hamilton
Lawr Michaels – Ryan Zimmerman
Zach Steinhorn – Mike Stanton
Jeff Erickson – Roy Halladay
ROUND 3
Jeff Erickson – David Wright
Zach Steinhorn – Matt Holliday
Lawr Michaels – Felix Hernandez
Cory Schwartz – Carlos Santana
Ray Flowers – Cliff Lee
Steve Gardner – Adrian Beltre
Todd Zola – Mike Napoli
Joe Sheehan – Ryan Braun
Will Carroll – Cole Hamels
Derek VanRiper – Elvis Andrus
Paul Sporer – Jay Bruce
Jason Collette – CC Sabathia
Eno Sarris – Brett Lawrie
ROUND 4
Eno Sarris – Hunter Pence
Jason Collette – Pablo Sandoval
Paul Sporer – Brian McCann
Derek VanRiper – Alex Gordon
Will Carroll – David Price
Joe Sheehan – Carl Crawford
Todd Zola – Jered Weaver
Steve Gardner – Starlin Castro
Ray Flowers – Kevin Youkilis
Cory Schwartz – Desmond Jennings
Lawr Michaels – Tim Lincecum
Zach Steinhorn – Michael Bourn
Jeff Erickson – Shin-Soo Choo
ROUND 5
JE – B.J. Upton
ZS – Alex Rodriguez
LM – Ben Zobrist
CS – Eric Hosmer
RF – Nelson Cruz
SG – Buster Posey
TZ – Brandon Phillips
JS – Craig Kimbrel
WC – Stephen Strasburg
DVR – Rickie Weeks
PS – Jason Heyward
JC – James Shields
ES – Jon Lester
ROUND 6
ES – Dan Haren
JC – Matt Wieters
PS – Dan Uggla
DVR – Zack Greinke
WC – Drew Storen
JS – Joe Mauer
TZ – Jimmy Rollins
SG – Paul Konerko
RF – Shane Victorino
CS – Drew Stubbs
LM – Matt Cain
ZS – Asdrubal Cabrera
JE – Miguel Montero
ROUND 7
JE – Alex Avila
ZS – Mariano Rivera
LM – Erick Aybar
CS – Jonathan Papelbon
RF – Adam Jones
SG – Brett Gardner
TZ – Yovani Gallardo
JS – Chase Utley
WC – Ichiro Suzuki
DVR – Aramis Ramirez
PS – Lance Berkman
JC – Corey Hart
ES – Mike Morse
ROUND 8
ES – Joel Hanrahan
JC – Cameron Maybin
PS – John Axford
DVR – Brian Wilson
WC – Ryan Howard
JS – Matt Moore
TZ – Michael Young
SG – C.J. Wilson
RF – Howie Kendrick
CS – Madison Bumgarner
LM – Andre Ethier
ZS – David Ortiz
JE – Michael Cuddyer
ROUND 9
JE – Dee Gordon
ZS – Ian Kennedy
LM – Nick Swisher
CS – Jayson Werth
RF – Mark Reynolds
SG – Billy Butler
TZ – Chris Young
JS – J.J. Hardy
WC – Ryan Roberts
DVR – Ike Davis
PS – Peter Bourjos
JC – Derek Jeter
ES – Adam Wainwright
ROUND 10
ES – Logan Morrison
JC – Martin Prado
PS – Matt Garza
DVR – Brandon Beachy
WC – Dustin Ackley
JS – Mike Moustakas
TZ – Ryan Madson
SG – Andrew Bailey
RF – Alexei Ramirez
CS – Jason Kipnis
LM – Jordan Walden
ZS – Jemile Weeks
JE – Kenley Jansen
ROUND 11
JE – Brandon League
ZS – Jose Valverde
LM – Nick Markakis
CS – Jason Motte
RF – Ricky Romero
SG – Danny Espinosa
TZ – Chris Carpenter
JS – Jesus Montero
WC – Yadier Molina
DVR – Neil Walker
PS – Dan Hudson
JC – Michael Pineda
ES – Freddie Freeman
ROUND 12
ES – Lucas Duda
JC – Sergio Santos
PS – Huston Street
DVR – Brandon Belt
WC – Yu Darvish
JS – Joakim Soria
TZ – Rafael Betancourt
SG – Mat Latos
RF – Josh Beckett
CS – Edwin Encarnacion
LM – Carlos Marmol
ZS – Gio Gonzalez
JE – Paul Goldschmidt
ROUND 13
JE – Kelly Johnson
ZS – Austin Jackson
LM – Coco Crisp
CS – Jordan Zimmermann
RF – Wandy Rodriguez
SG – Carlos Beltran
TZ – Cory Luebke
JS – Brandon Morrow
WC – Emilio Bonifacio
DVR – Josh Johnson
PS – Jeremy Hellickson
JC – Matt Joyce
ES – Tommy Hanson
ROUND 14
ES – Josh Willingham
JC – J.J. Putz
PS – Carlos Pena
DVR – Ubaldo Jimenez
WC – Heath Bell
JS – Justin Morneau
TZ – Adam Lind
SG – Angel Pagan
RF – Alex Rios
CS – Anibal Sanchez
LM – Mike Trout
ZS – Ervin Santana
JE – Joe Nathan
ROUND 15
JE – Max Scherzer
ZS – Jhonny Peralta
LM – J.P. Arencibia
CS – David Freese
RF – Chris Perez
SG – Johnny Cueto
TZ – Torii Hunter
JS – Derek Holland
WC – Bryce Harper
DVR – Colby Rasmus
PS – Gaby Sanchez
JC – Daniel Murphy
ES – Wilson Ramos
ROUND 16
ES – Frank Francisco
JC – Jeff Francoeur
PS – Jaime Garcia
DVR – Grant Balfour
WC – Geovany Soto
JS – Dexter Fowler
TZ – Carlos Lee
SG – Stephen Drew
RF – Melky Cabrera
CS – Brennan Boesch
LM – Jonathan LuCroy
ZS – Shaun Marcum
JE – Vernon Wells
ROUND 17
JE – Trevor Cahill
ZS – Russell Martin
LM – Justin Masterson
CS – Brandon McCarthy
RF – Ryan Doumit
SG – Kyle Farnsworth
TZ – Marco Scutaro
JS – Neftali Feliz
WC – Clay Buchholz
DVR – John Danks
PS – Chris Heisey
JC – Mark Trumbo
ES – Zack Cozart
ROUND 18
ES – Ben Revere
JC – Sean Rodriguez
PS – Alcides Escobar
DVR – Adam Dunn
WC – Scott Rolen
JS – Yunel Escobar
TZ – Ted Lilly
SG – Jason Kubel
RF – Kurt Suzuki
CS – Ramon Hernandez
LM – Jhoulys Chacin
ZS – Kendrys Morales
JE – Jed Lowrie
ROUND 19
JE – Michael Brantley
ZS – Matt Capps
LM – Gordon Beckham
CS – Matt Thornton
RF – Carlos Quentin
SG – Hiroki Kuroda
TZ – Yoenis Cespedes
JS – Lorenzo Cain
WC – Yonder Alonso
DVR – Jarrod Saltalamacchia
PS – Chris Iannetta
JC – Colby Lewis
ES – Addison Reed
ROUND 20
ES – Tim Hudson
JC – Devin mesoraco
PS – Edwin Jackson
DVR – Vance Worley
WC – Dayan Viciedo
JS – Ian Desmond
TZ – Ryan Raburn
SG – David Robertson
RF – Scott Baker
CS – John Mayberry
LM – Alexi Ogando
ZS – Bud Norris
JE – Aaron Hill
ROUND 21
JE – Doug Fister
ZS – Mike Minor
LM – Jair Jurrjens
CS – Ricky Nolasco
RF – Alejandro DeAza
SG – Miguel Olivo
TZ – Tim Stauffer
JS – Julio Teheran
WC – Ivan Nova
DVR – Salvador Perez
PS – Roy Oswalt
JC – Jim Johnson
ES – Chris Sale
ROUND 22
ES – Mitch Moreland
JC – Gavin Floyd
PS – Lonnie Chisenhall
DVR – Nolan Reimold
WC – Grady Sizemore
JS – Jonny Venters
TZ – John Buck
SG – Javy Guerra
RF – Ryan Dempster
CS – Luke Hochevar
LM – Aubrey Huff
ZS – Delmon Young
JE – R.A. Dickey
ROUND 23
JE – Mark Buehrle
ZS – Carlos Ruiz
LM – Mike Carp
CS – Jose Altuve
RF – Jonathan Sanchez
SG – Ty Wigginton
TZ – David Carpenter
JS – Tyler Pastornicky
WC – Johan Santana
DVR – Chad Billingsley
PS – Jake Peavy
JC – Matt Harrison
ES – Chase Headley
ROUND 24
ES – Ryan Hanigan
JC – Nick Hundley
PS – Denard Span
DVR – Justin Smoak
WC – Rafael Furcal
JS – Chipper Jones
TZ – Daniel Bard
SG – Allen Craig
RF – Pedro Alvarez
CS – Aroldis Chapman
LM – Cliff Pennington
ZS – Jose Tabata
JE – Edinson Volquez
Updated 2012 Rankings
Hey guys,
Because our most recent 2012 position-by position rankings came all the way back in September, we here at the 411 felt it was absolutely necessary to provide an update, with the Ryan Braun suspension having the most obvious effect. So here it is. And let us know what you think. Disagree with any of these? We want to hear from you!
-Zach
CATCHER
1. Brian McCann
2. Mike Napoli
3. Carlos Santana
4. Miguel Montero
5. Alex Avila
6. Buster Posey
7. Joe Mauer
8. Matt Wieters
9. Russell Martin
10. Yadier Molina
Honorable Mentions: Geovany Soto, J.P. Arencibia, Wilson Ramos
FIRST BASE
1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Adrian Gonzalez
4. Joey Votto
5. Prince Fielder
6. Mark Teixeira
7. Eric Hosmer
8. Paul Konerko
9. Lance Berkman
10. Michael Morse
Honorable Mention: Freddie Freeman
SECOND BASE
1. Robinson Cano
2. Dustin Pedroia
3. Ian Kinsler
4. Dan Uggla
5. Chase Utley
6. Ben Zobrist
7. Rickie Weeks
8. Brandon Phillips
9. Howard Kendrick
10. Dustin Ackley
Honorable Mentions: Neil Walker, Danny Espinosa
SHORTSTOP
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Jose Reyes
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Asdrubal Cabrera
5. Starlin Castro
6. Jimmy Rollins
7. Elvis Andrus
8. Alexei Ramirez
9. J.J. Hardy
10. Jhonny Peralta
Honorable Mentions: Derek Jeter, Erick Aybar
THIRD BASE
1. Jose Bautista
2. Evan Longoria
3. David Wright
4. Adrian Beltre
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Brett Lawrie
7. Michael Young
8. Alex Rodriguez
9. Aramis Ramirez
10. Pablo Sandoval
Honorable Mention: Mark Reynolds
OUTFIELD
1. Matt Kemp
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. Justin Upton
4. Carlos Gonzalez
5. Curtis Granderson
6. Andrew McCutchen
7. Mike Stanton
8. Hunter Pence
9. Matt Holliday
10. Carl Crawford
11. Jay Bruce
12. Josh Hamilton
13. Nelson Cruz
14. Desmond Jennings
15. Alex Gordon
Honorable Mentions: Shane Victorino, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Bourn
STARTING PITCHER
1. Justin Verlander
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Roy Halladay
4. Tim Lincecum
5. Cliff Lee
6. CC Sabathia
7. Jered Weaver
8. Felix Hernandez
9. Cole Hamels
10. Dan Haren
11. David Price
12. Matt Cain
13. Jon Lester
14. Zack Greinke
15. Ricky Romero
Honorable Mentions: Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy, James Shields
RELIEF PITCHER
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Mariano Rivera
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. John Axford
5. Heath Bell
6. Drew Storen
7. Jose Valverde
8. Brian Wilson
9. Joel Hanrahan
10. J.J. Putz
Honorable Mentions: Andrew Bailey, Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Jordan Walden
2012 MLB Fantasy Preview Magazine!
Zach here again,
Just a heads up that the 2012 Official Major League Baseball Fantasy Preview magazine will be available in newsstands January 27th. It’ll have positional rankings, individual player blurbs and projections, a 12-team mock draft in which Mike, Cory and I all participated and much more!
Buy it. You’ll like it.
Mastersball Mock – Version 2
Hey everyone,
Hope you all had a fun and relaxing holiday season! Now onto the business of fantasy baseball as draft day will be here before you know it. Time for the official mock draft season! Mike recently participated in a redo of the 15-team mock for the Mastersball Magazine (full post on the first draft can be found here), picking from the #11 spot. A lot has happened between November and now (most notably the Braun suspension) so that’s why the guys decided to do the draft again. Click on the link below for Mike’s round-by-round picks for both drafts along with his commentary for draft #2.
The magazine hits newsstands January 24th.
We’ll be putting up more blog posts over the next few days, so stay tuned. And as always, all comments/questions are welcome.
-Zach
Another Mock!
Monday night was the Mastersball Magazine Mock Draft, the issue hits newsstands January 24th and has more to it than just a mock. 15-team mixed league and I had pick #11.
-Siano
Other participants
|
Scott Pianowski – Yahoo! Sports |
|
Doug Anderson – RotoExperts |
|
Al Mechior – CBS |
|
David Gonos – RotoExperts |
|
Mike Siano – MLB.com |
|
Steve Gardner – USA Today |
|
Lawr Michaels – Mastersball |
|
Peter Kreutzer – Ask RotoMan! |
|
Mike Piekarski- BIS |
|
Doug Dennis – BBHQ |
|
Todd Zola – Mastersball |
|
Nicholas Minnix – KFFL |
|
Jeff Erickson – RotoWire |
|
Tim McLeod – RotoRob |
|
Gene McCaffrey – Wise Guy Baseball |
1.11 Jacoby Ellsbury: Would have considered Hanley here but he went two picks earlier so it came down to Ellsbury or Justin Upton. As much as I love Upton I thought Ellsbury’s runs, steals, average and newfound pop were too much to pass up. Not sure he can have a better year but as long as he comes close to repeating 2011 he is a first rounder.
2.5 Ian Kinsler: Wanted Pedroia but he went right before me. Kinsler finally was healthy and showed what he can do. Worth the risk that is still out there but man I wanted Pedey.
3.11 Jay Bruce: Was looking best OF available and to me that was Bruce. Power with some speed at a thin position in a 15-teamer. My average is already hurting but that’s ok.
4.5 Brian McCann: Addressed OF/2B and C in first four picks and got a top tier catcher.
5.11 Drew Stubbs: Took the chance that he goes 30-30 and gets his average up. Lots of good OFs still available but he may have the chance to be a great OF in 2012.
6.5 Craig Kimbrel: As the 411 states, get two stud closers. Cory isn’t a big fan of being the first to choose a CL but I’m honey badger on that. Jeff Erickson said on twitter I basically got a closer and a 5th SP because of his Ks and he is right. Was wondering if this would start a run, it did not.
7.11 Alexei Ramirez: Get up Alexei. I think he is underrated in fantasy, not great but definitely doesn’t hurt you. I like this pick.
8.5 Mariano Rivera: Believe it or not, I wrestled with Mo or David Freese. I really needed a 3B but felt that as much as I think Freese will have a solid year, he was unproven. This would come back to bite me some but I also could have taken Freese in the 7th. He would end up going two picks later.
9.11 Ricky Romero: I was the next to last GM to take a SP. No issue with this pick, very happy. To get an ace I would have had to take a starter in the
6th. The difference in talent at SP between the 7th and 9th was a wash unless you count Josh Johnson, but there is a reason he went in the 7th right?
10.5 Ike Davis: Only time will tell if this was a reach and as we get closer to March and games are played, we’ll see if he goes up or down. Could be a steal, could be fair or a bust I’ll take my 66% odds and hope for the best.
11.11 Ervin Santana: BIG ERV!!!!!!!!!!!!!
12.5 Max Scherzer: Romero, Erv and Scherzer is coming together nicely. I’m going to assume Max bounces back.
13.11 Austin Jackson: I took three OF in first five picks which allowed me some time to wait. Like Max, I’m expecting a bounce back on certain aspects of his game. He’s averaged 95 runs and 25 steals his first two years, not a bad 4th OF at all.
14.5 Derek Holland: Love this pick, great second half, high ceiling low risk in the 14th.
15.11 Jonny Venters: Hedge for Kimbrel and more. 96 Ks in 2011.
16.5 Casey McGehee: My least favorite pick but there was nobody else left except Danny Valencia. Gross.
17.11 Mike Adams: Who knows, he may be the CL in 2012. If not, I have a K per IP and great rate stats.
18.5 Justin Smoak: Here’s to hoping this is the year. Needed a CI/DH.
19.11 Eric Thames: It was him or Soriano, Soriano is boring.
20.5 John Jaso: Still the starter and still a chance to contribute no?
21.11 Ivan Nova: Great value here, absolutely nothing to lose and I think he has a big year. Love his stuff and demeanor.
22.5 Kendrys Morales: The main reason why my 2011 was a lost season was due to having Kendrys on too many teams. Now he becomes a buy opportunity. True story, since he didn’t play last year he was omitted from the draft room queue, I took Val Pascucci as a placeholder.
23.11 Marco Scutaro: Hey, he may play the whole year there, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
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