Hey folks, it's been a while since I've posted and I'm sorry for that, and to make it up, here's a little treat to keep you busy over the winter... attached is an Excel spreadsheet with MLB park factors for the last three seasons combined, from 2006-2008.

If you're curious about the methodology, please refer back to the post from last March when we first provided park factors for 2005-2007.

Interesting factoid: Coors Field (below) is pretty clearly still the best "hitter's park" in baseball, but it's longer the best home run park; that honor goes to either U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago or Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Stock up on those White Sox and Reds in four-category leagues!

I'll try to post the 2009 List of 12 in the next week or so but hopefully this will all entertain you in the meantime. Enjoy the postseason!

Your friend in 411,

Cory

 

***The 411 will be returning on Tuesday, November 11^th and will air each Tuesday and Thursday from 11-11:30 am ET.  Now on to the chat...


Cory: Hey folks, it's Cory... post your questions and we'll get this puppy rolling... Sterno will join me for the first half of the chat and then SIano will step in for the rest

bjwranger1: Cory, any preview of the list of 12 for 2009? What do you think of Sean Gallagher in Oakland?

Cory: Look for the 2009 list of 12 sometime next week! As for Gallagher, he should have some value in AL only leagues but I don't think he's a target in mixed leagues... limited upside

bjwranger1: I have both Doumit and Iannetta in a keeper league. Can only keep one. Who do I deal? Who has more upside for 09? Thanks!

Cory: They are very close in value but I think Iannetta has to have the edge thanks to Coors... see if you can deal Doumit, who hit .320 this year and should have plenty of value

SmokeNhalo: What's up guys? It's my first time joining one of your chats. I had a halo question. Do you think there's a chance Vlad bounces back and becomes a top 20 OF again? Or will the decline continue?

Cory: He's certainly finishing strong, so he could crack the top 20 again, but the decline in his speed in particular hurts his value compared to some of the other up-and-comers at the position

JaninGlasgow: Guys, catcher question. What about Brian McCann for next season. He seemed to get lost this season. Sterno Great job hosting and Siano and Schwartz for the analysis.

Cory: McCann will be a top 3-4 catcher again, at worst, and should be good for another .290-25-90 season... I'd still take Martin over him, and probably Mauer too given how he's bounced back this year

Casey: Jan....thanks so much -- appreciate that. To me, McCann is only underrated because he's a quiet player who this year played for a quiet team overall in ATL -- I expect more of the same from him year after year -- and I think he gives little risk in a Draft in '09.

csbr8_2: How do you like Gallardo for 2009? I think he could well fly under the radar in drafts next year.

Cory: He's got great upside and should be healthy... but as with outfield, SP is so deep that it's tough to pick him over so many other good young pitchers who were 100% healthy this season, ie., Billingsley, Volquez, Lester, Greinke, etc.

Casey: I really like Gallardo's stuff but I would be cautious how high I drafted him because their still isnt really a large enough sample for me to trust taking him over a guy who Ive sene perform well throughout '08.

swagmanjay: So, do you guys know your microphone is left on during commercial breaks?

Cory: They're not supposed to be, although we suppose this does create more material for the "411 Uncut" edition!

Casey: Come on man....you dont want to hear us talk trash to each other during breaks? You are COMPLETELY missing out!

aubs6: Hey, I have a big keeper dilema. I am in a 14 team h2h league with ops and k/9 and we get to keep 5. I already have 4 lock down keepers in Arod, Sizemore, Pujols, and Kinsler but I cannot figure out my 5th. I have to chose between R. Martin and Kemp. I

Cory: No need to post your question four times, we'll answer.

Cory: I would keep Kemp... even though Martin offers the edge in position scarcity, Kemp looks like a strong bet to go .290-20-80-35 at least next year, and could exceed that with even a little improvement in his strike zone judgment. Martin has a ton of value too though, so you should be looking trade here to see if you can turn Kemp AND Martin into, say, Wright.

Casey: Have you noticed EVERY time Cory talks about this philosophy of dealing keepers to move for a better one, that he uses Wright as the end game. Check the archives!

Casey: I think the important thing to remember is that while this is probably a down year for Russell Martin, that he is still never going to put up the numbers Kemp will in my opinion -- so unless youre hell bent on having a top backstop, Id keep Matt here.

todd2008: Who would be your top 12 in next years draft in a standard 5X5 league?

Cory: The top five will almost certainly be A-Rod, Reyes, Hanley, Wright and Sizemore. Holliday and Utley will be right behind them, but after that it opens up to a group of about 6-8 guys who could fill out the first round.

Casey: I think that my boy Jose has overtaken Hanley at number two -- thats the first point. Beyond that I agree with Cory and am specifically interested in seeing how high a guy like Ian Kinsler will go. He STILL to me hasnt reached his full fantasy potential

aubs6: My bad, Cory, I'm in a hurry. Great season guys and I finally won the championship this year. thanks for the help!

Cory: It's all good. Flags fly forever!

JaninGlasgow: What about Sterno's first half man crush in Parra. What is he expected to do next season?

Casey: I was right about a number of guys this year -- this was NOT one of them unfortunately. Only in spurts did we see the stuff that I was so excited about. I think next year Parra is definitely a risk, but still has that ceiling that will draw some people into drafting him at a value he doesnt deserve. Be careful with him - but if he falls to you in a good spot -- why not -- I still buy his upseide

Cory: Let's be fair here too... Parra will only be 26 next season, averaged about 7.9 K/9 this year and gets a ton of ground balls, so with some improvement in his walk rate and stamina, he could be a good low-cost breakout candidate.

jarchive: Hey Guys, grats on another year! Even if I wasn't a fan of some of the changes, you guys are still the best. What do you think of K-Rod for next year? Primed for a huge drop off? P.S. I lead the Ron Cey League by 12 points with 3 days to go!

Cory: No doubt K-Rod will drop off next year, simply because he's not going to get 62+ saves again. But his strikeout rate bounced back some in the second half so I think he'll still be a top-5 closer along with Mariano, Papelbon, Nathan and -- yep -- Soria.

geoff73: What's J Bruces upside next year compared with C Granderson?

Casey: I think people expected Jay Bruce to be Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria and jump out of the gates with ALl-Star quality on the field...and while we didnt see that, I think we still are watching a guy with the ability to be a fantasy stud. That said, I STILL go with Granderson here personally because I've got the track record and the speed on my side. And I would rather in that spot take a guy I trust, despite what Bruce "May" do in 09

Cory: Gotta agree with my man Sterno here. Bruce has big upside and is a reasonable bet to hit ~30 homers next year, but we haven't seen a ton of speed yet or the ability to hit for a high average. Those things may come in time but Granderson is a legit .300-20-20 guy right now who will score ~100 runs too, so he has to go ahead of Bruce in non-keeper drafts. Maybe in keeper leagues, too... not like he's an old man.

Gerricus: Hey guys, what do you expect from A. Gordon and C. Jackson next season and who'll be Arizona's first baseman next season? Jackson, Dunn (if they resign him)?

Casey: I am not the biggest Conor Jackson fan and never have been. To me he's what I categorize as a "nice player" who just isn't going to have a power jump that some people expect despite how big a guy he is physically. As for Gordon, the jury is still out. I still claim that he's got the goods to be a big-time player and maybe like we've seen with so many others -- now that the expectations have subsided and the adjustment period in his career is over -- we FINALLY see the guy we expected.

Cory: I'd take Gordon over Jackson 100 times out of 100. Even though this wasn't a breakout year for Gordon, check the stats... big improvements in his walk rate and isolated power, although the strikeout rate is still a problem. He'll only be 25 next season, too, so major upside is still there. I'm not selling short on him.

Casey: All right people -- I gotta jet to other duties -- getting "pipped" by Siano here. I just wanted to say whole heartedly how much fun I have had with all of you this season, and that I am very thankful for so many notes and letters to me opening arms to my addition to the show.

Halos14: Would you consider the Angels the favorites to win the AL championship?

Cory: The Angels and Cubs look like the best teams from 1-25 in each league, but as they say, once you get into the postseason everyone starts from 0-0. Don't rule out any of these teams, they'll all have earned their spot.

Siano: I think in order to be the champs you have to beat the champ. Red Sox are the favorites to me. By the way Cory didn't make that up Bret the Hitman Hart did.

SmokeNhalo: What do you think Brandon Wood's value is for next year? it seems like he's in position to get a starting job. He's flashed a little pop that we've heard so much about.

Cory: I think he'll be the Angels 3rd baseman next year if they don't make a trade... Figgins seems to have worn out his welcome. Wherever Wood plays, he should be a watered down Troy Glaus: good power, even some speed, but a so-so average... something like .257-31-88 with 10 steals. Solid but not a superstar.

cozzolino: Guys, how do you handle your roster for Monday/Tuesday's possible Tie Breaker Games since all 3 of my leagues may be decided by an RBI, RUN, or W? Moves you make or anticipate making? Thanks...NS

Siano: I'd start grabbing guys at the latest once Sunday's games start. If you are done with your innings you can actually start picking potential players up now and cut all your arms.

Cory: Zack from Philly won a share of the 411 listener league title last year by picking up everyone who was available in the Rockies-Padres game... they were mostly a bunch of benchies, but it's the Tony Campbell rule: there are going to be an average of 9 runs in every MLB game, someone has to score them!

cozzolino: Hey Guys, What do you think about these Sunday starts: Lohse vs CIN, Baek vs. PIT, Outman @ SEA, and Jurrjens @ HOU? Thanks...Neighbor Steve

Cory: I rank them Lohse, Jurrjens, Baek and Outman. Jurrjens is fading in the 2nd half but he's worth a gamble one more time.

JaninGlasgow: Who in the minors should i have my radar locked on to that has a decent shot of making it to the majors for next season in for a keeper league?

Siano: You know we never saw this year? McCutchen, Wieters and Rasmus so those definitely head the list with an eye on LaPorta as well but since he played for Team USA it hurt him for September. By the way Kennedy and Hughes rumored to be going to Arizona Fall League.

Cory: It's also important to remember all of the young prospects who DIDN'T excel this year, and don't given up on them too quicky, guys like Pearce, Gio Gonzalez, even Phil Hughes. Not every young player becomes a star right away so these guys are great late-round gambles.

volcanoele: Hey guys, I'm in a 20 team 7x7 with OPS, hitters Ks, K/9, and holds, H2H, and I've virtually won the league. We keep 3 Major Leaguers and 3 minor leaguers/rookies. I have Gregor Blanco so I am keeping him as a rookie.

Cory: This sounds like a deep league but Blanco doesn't do much for me... only 13 steals despite playing over 140 games, and obviously he's not going to give you any power. Who else ya got?

Siano: The questions seem to be winding down and we may have to wrap up by about 12:30, so if you have any last-minute questions, get 'em in now!

volcanoele: Adam Miller and Pablo Sandoval ((I traded away Kuroda and Kennedy early on)), and on the Minor League wire there are guys like Sandoval, Burriss, Barnese, etc.

Cory: I'd rather keep Burriss over Blanco... maybe not as good a player in reality, but will steal a lot more and fills a tougher position (SS vs. OF). I am a BIG Pablo Sandoval fan, too.

Siano: Adam Miller was a guy I like a bunch this year and actually took him in reserve round of AL Tout. He just can't stay healthy but his ceiling is very high and I think if you can make him very low risk then it's worth a shot for next year.

geoff73: In a 5X5 keeper league Vanilla My keepers are Pujols, J Reyes, Lincecum but struggling with Granderson, Papelbon and Bruce for last 2 spots. You guys suggest drafting good CLoser early? Your thoughts keeping Granderson & Bruce over Papelbon?

Siano: I agree. Bruce is not a top 60 pick while Papelbon and Granderson are locks. No brianer to me. Now Cory will wax poetic about making a trade.

Cory: Classy guy. Gotta agree with everything he said.

Siano: OK kids I gotta run but a heads up on some things. Look for the show twice a week (hopefully) starting sometime in November and keep an eye on the blog fantasy411.mlblogs.com also I will definitely be at ALCS so if I'm in your town holla at me. Thanks for a tremendous year!

Cory: Got time for one more, who wants it?

hamzen: Hi guys, This one should get a laugh. UK national just got into baseball last 2 years. I'm just completeing my first fantasy year, 7x7 15 keepers, 5 minor leaguers, can add 2 to next years roster. Need to know what the chances are for Byrd and Cruz next year, oh by the way the laughs are that I picked Martinez, Myers, Griffey, Perwez, Willingham and Jacobs this year

Cory: Paul Byrd? Juan Cruz? Wow. Gotta start somewhere but I wouldn't make it with those guys.

Cory: That's it for today, and puts a bow on top of the 2008 Fantasy 411 season. Thanks to everyone for your feedback, questions and contributions to the show! Enjoy the postseason and we'll talk to you all winter long on the blog, on Facebook and on the show. Thanks!

***UPDATE:  The 411 will be returning on Tuesday, November 11^th and will air each Tuesday and Thursday from 11-11:30 am ET.

Hey everyone,

I never like to leave things unfinished, so here's the final installment of the feud standings.  As expected for the past month or so, Siano took home the title, thanks in large part to his season long dominance in the hitting categories.  Mike did drop a point in strikeouts during the last week, but Cory couldn't quite catch him, ending up a half point short.

FANTASYFEUDBREAKDOWN wk 26 (2).rtf

JOHN MAINE UNDERWENT SUCCESSFUL SURGERY
 
FLUSHING, N.Y., September 30, 2008 - Mets righthanded pitcher John Maine underwent successful right shoulder arthroscopic surgery today at New York's Hospital for Special Surgery. Mets Medical Director Dr. David Altchek and Mets Team Physician Struan Coleman removed a lesion from the back of his shoulder socket.

Maine will begin rehabilitation immediately and resume throwing activities as part of his off-season workouts, and is expected to make a full recovery in advance of spring training.
 
 
 

Much thanks to Tony in Jacksonville for this!

2009 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft.doc

SUNDAY

Pitch:  Shields, Mussina, Litsch, Guthrie, Buehrle, Baker, Saundo, Johan, Hamels, Jurrjens, Wandy, CC, Kuroda, Lincecum, Unit

MONDAY (if necessary)

Pitch:  Floyd

          2007                             2008

C    Russell Martin          C    Russell Martin
1B  Prince Fielder          1B   Albert Pujols
2B  Brandon Phillips      2B   Chase Utley
SS  Jimmy Rollins           SS   Jose Reyes
3B  Alex Rodriguez        3B   David Wright
OF  Matt Holliday           OF  Grady Sizemore
OF  Magglio Ordonez     OF  Matt Holliday
OF  Grady Sizemore       OF  Carlos Beltran
SP  Jake Peavy              SP   Cliff Lee
CL  J.J. Putz                   CL   Mariano Rivera


                Your MVP is:  JOSE REYES
                And the Cy Young goes to:  CLIFF LEE

From R-O-Y to B-U-S-T                                                                                                                             
Neither Mike nor Cory nailed any of these exactly, and quite honestly, neither did well in general.  Both were right about Salty, but after that, the negatives far outweigh the positives.  Mike's Carmona and Kendrick picks were solid while his Hamilton selection is about as bad as it gets!  Also, Lowell, Shields, and Hart all went on to have productive years.  Cory's best pick?  Chad Cordero.  His worst?  How about Adrian, Manny, Halladay, and Oswalt.  The edge once again goes to Siano.

Zach Steinhorn


2008 ALL-DISAPPOINTMENT TEAM

C    Victor Martinez
1B  Paul Konerko
2B  Robinson Cano
SS  Troy Tulowitzki
3B  Ryan Zimmerman
OF  Nick Swisher
OF  Jeff Francoeur
OF  Chris Young
SP  Justin Verlander
RP  Huston Street


MIKE'S OVERRATED PICKS

C    Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B  Carlos Pena
2B  Howie Kendrick
SS  Yunel Escobar
3B  Mike Lowell
OF  Magglio Ordonez
OF  Corey Hart
OF  Josh Hamilton
SP  Fausto Carmona
SP  James Shields
RP  Jose Valverde


CORY'S OVERRATED PICKS

C    Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B  Adrian Gonzalez
2B  Placido Polanco
SS  Edgar Renteria
3B  Mike Lowell
OF  Manny Ramirez
OF  Hideki Matsui
OF  Vernon Wells
SP  Roy Halladay
SP  Roy Oswalt
RP  Chad Cordero

Well, Siano hit it out of the park on this one!

We're nearing the end of our year in review shows as the All-Surprise team was unveiled today.  So let's compare Mike and Cory's preseason sleeper picks with the All-Surprise list to see how the guys did.  Cory did a nice job with Greinke and Scott while striking out badly on Lugo, Gagne, McGowan (injury), and Kendrick.  As for Mike, Towles was a disaster and his choices of Weeks and Feliz have proven to be mediocre at best.  But the outfield trio of Bay, Kemp, and most notably Quentin easily makes up for all that.


2008 ALL-SURPRISE TEAM                                                                                                                                    
C    Ryan Doumit
1B  Kevin Youkilis
2B  Dustin Pedroia
SS  Cristian Guzman
3B  Jorge Cantu
OF  Josh Hamilton
OF  Ryan Ludwick
OF  Carlos Quentin
SP  Cliff Lee
RP  Joakim Soria


MIKE'S UNDERRATED PICKS

C    J.R. Towles
1B  James Loney
2B  Rickie Weeks
SS  Michael Young
3B  Pedro Feliz
OF  Matt Kemp
OF  Jason Bay
OF  Carlos Quentin
SP  Matt Cain
SP  Oliver Perez
RP  B.J. Ryan


CORY'S UNDERRATED PICKS

C    Dioner Navarro
1B  Adam LaRoche
2B  Howie Kendrick
SS  Julio Lugo
3B  Edwin Encarnacion
OF  Franklin Gutierrez
OF  Jason Kubel
OF  Luke Scott
SP  Dustin McGowan
SP  Zack Greinke
RP  Eric Gagne   

Hi guys,

12 team 5x5 mixed, we keep 8.
 
Comfortably in first so the yoo-hoo shower will be mine.  I did trade away some solid players during the season to secure the victory, so here's my current definite keepers:
 
1) A-Rod
2) Reyes
3) Cabrera
4) Phillips
 
After that, my options grow weak.  Pick 4 of the following possible keepers. Pence, Liriano, Valverde, Harden, Joba, Ethier, Mora, Bradley, or Dukes.
 
Thanks,

Deano
Newfoundland, Canada


Hey Deano,

This is the type of situation where, assuming it is allowed, you might want to keep less than the max number and take the extra draft picks.  Of this group, the only guys who clearly deserve top eight round consideration are Pence, Liriano, Valverde, and Harden.
                                                                                                                                      
I understand that many will draft Joba before the end of Round 8 in a single-season league, but despite this being a keeper, I'd be reluctant to do so.  Joba's role for 2009 remains undefined, and I just cannot justify using a keeper slot on him in a league where there are no values attached.  It's entirely possible that he'll stay in the bullpen for the entire year, greatly limiting his fantasy appeal.            

Now when looking at the four names I mentioned, Pence and Valverde are safe choices.  Pence's 2008 season has been somewhat disappointing, but last year's immediate success probably placed expectations a bit too high.  His numbers this year (.271 AVG  24 HR  80 RBI  10 SB) are still very respectable, and there's plenty of upside here.  As for Valverde, he's not the most reliable stopper, but in this 8 keeper format, I think it's important that you hold onto one for the simple reason that many owners could decide to keep two closers.  Although it's true that the attentive owner can scoop up plenty of saves from the waiver wire throughout the season, coming out of the draft with less than two adequate options is not recommended.  I'm going to give Liriano the edge over Harden.  There's no doubt that both are health risks, but Liriano doesn't have the extensive injury history of Harden, and he's experienced no setbacks since returning to the mound. 

 If you can keep less than four, those are the three I'll pick.  If, and only if, four keepers are required, go with Joba based simply on potential and perhaps more importantly, trade value.

Zach Steinhorn


Hello,

Found out about the 411 this spring and have been listening ever since.  Love it!  (By the way, I think the 3-man booth has been a huge success this year as well.) 14-team keeper league, we protect 10.  No dollar values or other rules associated; no limit to how many years you can keep a guy.  Cats are BA, HR, RBI, SB; ERA, K, Sv, W.  I have 8 of my 10 figured out.  They are 1B Pujols, SS Rollins, C McCann, OF BJ Upton.  SP Lincecum, SP Beckett, SP Felix Hernandez, SP Kershaw. I need to pick 2 of these remaining players:

OF Josh Hamilton
OF Carlos Quentin
OF Jay Bruce
SP Cliff Lee
SP Edinson Volquez
SP Phil Hughes
SP Zack Greinke

One note: whoever I don't keep will be traded for draft pick(s), which also holds great value in our league.  In a way I'd love to sell high on Hamilton and Quentin and find a way to protect Bruce.  I'm also still intrigued by Hughes.  I know you guys prefer hitters, but pitching is a premium in our league.  Thanks for your help!

Brett Kruschke
Jordan, MN
.

Hey Brett,

This is almost a no-brainer for me: keep Hamilton and Bruce and trade Quentin. I'm not sure how your pitchers could be held at any more of a premium than hitters, especially considering your league doesn't track WHIP. That means starters can affect only three cats (ERA, Ks and Ws) and Ws are pretty tough to predict. So that means only two cats in which you can realistically estimate a pitcher's stats.

You have three hitters who will be valued highly heading into next season, and I think you need to add more power hitters to Pujols and McCann. Upton (8 HR) and Rollins (11 HR) have struggled to come close to matching their 2007 homer totals of 24 and 30, respectively.

Hamilton (.303 AVG, 31 HR, 124 RBI, 9 SB) and Quentin (.288 AVG, 36 HR, 100 RBI, 7 SB) have similar stats and their home ballparks are fantastic hitter's environments, but I value Hamilton slightly more. I'd feel safer with Hamilton knowing that he gave an indication of what was to come in 2008 with a pretty good 2007, when he hit .292 with 19 homers and 47 RBIs. Quentin hadn't produced anything close at the Major League level at the rate he did in 2008.

Now, one would think you could scratch Bruce and just keep Hamilton and Quentin. But as you noted, you could benefit from gaining a great amount of value for, say, Quentin and keeping the 21-year-old Bruce. Don't worry about Bruce's .260 batting average. He had a career .308 average in the Minors, including a .364 mark at Triple-A Louisville in 49 games this season. He can and will hit at a high level in the Majors. His .287 batting average at Cincy's Great American Ball Park is a great sign that he has adjusted nicely to his home surroundings, and more experience should raise his road average.

Bruce and Hamilton will round out a strong offensive core for you and Quentin could deliver one or two high draft picks which could be used to regain Lee, Volquez, Hughes or Greinke.

Kyle Stack