ZACH’S PICKS

Smith @ Masterson

Arrieta @ Romero

Humber @ Shields

Verlander @ Bard – Bard’s been too erratic to trust vs. strong offense.

Vargas @ Feldman

Parker @ De Vries – Parker very impressive last time out and now gets a favorable matchup.

Pettitte @ Haren

Stults @ Samardzija

Bailey @ Morton – Homer 7-for-9 in quality starts this year.

Blanton @ Hefner

Westbrook @ Delgado – Westbrook starting to turn back into a pumpkin.

Jackson @ An. Sanchez

Fiers @ Lilly

Saunders @ Vogelsong – Saundo’s been struggling lately but still a decent gamble here for owners in deeper leagues.

ZACH’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Scherzer @ Pavano – Even though it was vs. PIT, Scherzer’s last start very encouraging.

Alvarez @ Lewis – Alvarez usually a solid option but he’s scuffling of late and this is a brutal matchup.

Paulino @ W. Chen – Classic blue-plate special.

Sabathia @ Colon – Even though he’s at home and the Yankee lineup is struggling, Bartolo’s been too inconsistent lately to trust.

Lowe @ Peavy – Lowe’s gone at least six innings while allowing no more than 2 ER in six straight starts.

Williams @ King Felix

Price @ Beckett

Richard @ J. Santana – I know he’s on the road, but coming off stellar outing @STL I’ll give Richard a shot here.

Strasburg @ Minor – Minor cannot be trusted right now, regardless of the opponent.

Bumgarner @ Buehrle

Maholm @ Correia

Guthrie @ Leake – Leake is looking better and Rockies can’t hit on the road.

Kendrick @ J. Garcia

Norris @ Billingsley – Billingsley’s in my doghouse until further notice.

Greinke @ Miley

                                                                                                                                                      SUNDAY

Hochevar @ Hunter

Hellickson @ Buchholz – Clay cannot be trusted.

Jimenez @ Floyd – Not giving up on Floyd yet. Ubaldo’s high risk, medium reward.

Porcello @ Walters

Drabek @ Darvish

Kuroda @ Milone – If you can’t trust Kuroda here, why exactly do you still own him?

Wilson @ Noesi

Moyer @ Latos – Latos enjoying the month of May (2-0, 2.35 ERA)

Volquez @ Dickey

Cain @ Nolasco

Garza @ Bedard

Halladay @ Wainwright

Happ @ Capuano – Capuano’s a grad.

Wolf @ D. Hudson – I’m fine with using Hudson in his first start back.

Gonzalez @ Beachy

                                                                                                                                               MONDAY

Fister @ Doubront – Doubront’s a little risky but I’ll chance it.

Godfrey @ Diamond – Nice matchup for Diamond.

Sale @ Moore – Stay the course with Moore.

Adcock @ Tomlin – Tomlin’s worth monitoring going forward though.

Matusz @ Hutchison

Millwood @ Harrison – Harrison 3 ER or less in three of his last four starts, and it’s the Mariners we’re talking about!

Hughes @ Weaver – Hughes got beat up by the Halos earlier this year. I just don’t see the upside here.

Hamels @ Niese

Lynn @ Hanson

Zimmermann @ Zambrano – Expect Big Z to bounce back from season-worst outing.

Arroyo @ McDonald – I have faith in Bronson in this favorable matchup.

Suppan @ Wood

Wandy @ Nicasio  (Gm 1 of doubleheader) – Nicasio’s been too hit or miss this year.

Lyles @ White  (Gm 2 of doubleheader)

Cahill @ Zito – No upside in pitching Zito.

Marcum @ Harang – Harang has been stellar at home (3.54 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).

Hey guys,

To prep you for next week, here are my thoughts on nine projected two-start pitchers. Be sure to catch today’s podcast to hear Cory’s picks.

-Zach

                                                                                                                                                         Matt Harrison  (vs. SEA, @LAA)

A couple of appealing matchups here, especially the Mariners one. Coming off a strong outing at Seattle (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K, W) and keep in mind that his 4.72 ERA is somewhat inflated by two disaster starts. I’m throwing him out there.

Jon Niese  (vs. PHI, vs. STL)

A no-brainer in my mind but I’m including him on this list because Siano still views him as Pitch or Ditch material (I strongly disagree!) and the Cardinals matchup is a challenging one. That said, Niese has been stellar at home (3.79 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 18 K’s in 19 IP) and the Phillies’ offense is erratic. Pitch.

Felix Doubront  (vs. DET, @TOR)

This decision could turn out to be a disaster but I’m cautiously optimistic about Doubront next week, despite the tough matchups. 3 ER or less in seven of his nine starts this year and he did pretty well @TOR back in April (5 IP, 2 ER, 6 K). Not to mention his 53 K’s in 50 IP. Pitch.

Phil Hughes  (@LAA, @DET)

He’s been pitching a lot better of late but still makes me very nervous. Got rocked by the Angels earlier this year and the Tigers’ lineup can explode at any moment. He’s also served up 11 homers through nine starts. If you pitch him, you’re basically chasing wins and strikeouts. No thanks.

Bronson Arroyo  (@PIT, @HOU)

This guy always burns me but he’s very quietly posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this year. I’ll take my chances on him vs. a mediocre Astros’ lineup and an awful Pirates’ offense which ranks last in the NL in both runs scored and AVG.

Scott Diamond  (vs. OAK, @CLE)

Very impressive so far. 3 ER or less in all four of his starts, including two 7 IP, 0 ER performances. You have to think that hitters will make adjustments to him and he will then need to make the necessary adjustments, but let’s ride him while he’s hot. A’s rank last in AL in runs scored and AVG and Indians are just a mid-tier offense. Diamond’s a worthy gamble.

Daniel Bard  (vs. DET, @TOR)

Too inconsistent to trust. Has yet to post back to back quality starts and is walking too many batters (29 BB in 48 IP). With these matchups in mind, next week is a terrible time to pitch Bard.

Barry Zito  (vs. ARI, vs. CHC)

After solid start to the season, he’s beginning to flame out. 8.64 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over last two starts. Even though he will be at home for both games, I just don’t see the upside. Ditch.

Aaron Harang  (vs. MIL, @COL)

Harangatang is having a decent but not great year. Really struggled last time out @ARI. The @COL matchup is very scary (5 2/3 IP, 5 ER in start at Coors earlier this season) and the home start against the Brewers doesn’t make up for it. Ditch in mixed leagues.

CORY’S PICKS

B. Chen @ Hammel

Cobb @ Lester

Morrow @ Holland – I’d start Morrow anywhere vs. anyone right now

Gomez @ Danks

Smyly @ Swarzak – Smyly coming back to earth, but good matchup

Nova @ Ross – good matchup for Nova to get back on track

Big Erv @ Beavan

Dempster @ Burnett

Friedrich @ Cueto

Bass @ Gee – blue plate special!

Lincecum @ Johnson – both rounding into form

Detwiler @ T. Hudson – Detwiler has earned it

Lee @ Lohse – Lohse has earned it

Gallardo @ Kennedy

Harrell @ Kershaw

***MIKE SAYS “I’m back on Team AJ. It’s a disease. 3 QS in a row. Cubs 14^th in scoring in THE NL!!!!! I’m off Freidrich for now so definitely agree with that. I benched him in NL-only.”

 

CORY’S PICKS

Hey everyone,

A lot can change in two weeks. Here’s the second and final May version of our Pitch or Ditch category chart. More demotions than promotions this time around.

Pitch or Ditch Category Chart 5-22

Once again, a reminder as to how the chart works:

We’ve divided all of the current starting rotation pitchers in the Majors into five groups: Aces, Grads (pitchers who you should be starting regardless of the matchup), Pitch or Ditch (guys who you should be picking up to start in favorable matchups but do not deserve a regular roster spot), DTMs (guys who we are fed up with and would not start under any circumstances for the time being) and Indifferents (guys who we don’t feel any ill-will towards but who just aren’t that good). Keep in mind that these classifications are very much subject to change throughout the season based on performance. We’ll be updating the chart every other Monday.

And here are the changes we’ve made since the last version:

                                                                                                                                   PROMOTIONS

Cueto grad to ace

Bumgarner grad to ace

McDonald PoD to grad

Capuano PoD to grad

Estrada indifferent to PoD

Hutchison indifferent to PoD

Ross indifferent to PoD

White indifferent to PoD

                                                                                                                                    DEMOTIONS

Lincecum ace to grad

Wainwright ace to grad

Kennedy ace to grad

Moore grad to PoD

Masterson grad to PoD

Smyly grad to PoD

Cahill grad to PoD

Kuroda grad to PoD

Billingsley grad to PoD

Nova grad to PoD

Parker grad to PoD

Buchholz PoD to DTM

 

Let us know what you think!

-Zach

CORY’S PICKS

Bard @ Arrieta – both are very risky

Romero @ Shields

Weaver @ Parker – Parker struggling but upside is still there

Feldman @ Millwood – Feldman takes Feliz’s spot

Fister @ McAllister – McAllister has been solid so far

Mendoza @ Pettitte

Diamond @ Sale

Niese @ Morton – Morton has been excellent at home

Zito @ Estrada – Estrada’s K’s vs. Giants popgun offense? Yes please!

Jackson @ Hamels

Hanson @ Arroyo

White @ Zambrano

Samardzija @ Wandy

Suppan @ Lynn

Lilly @ Saunders

                                                                                                                                               ***MIKE SAYS “Agree. Diamond a blue plate special but no need to rush out and grab him if you are settled in at SP.”

CORY’S PICKS

Doubront @ Matusz – Doubront worth gambling on for the K’s and improving command

Porcello @ Jimenez – don’t trust either in any semi-tough matchup

Hochevar @ Hughes

Hutchison @ Moore – Hang with ‘em

Walters @ Floyd

Wilson @ Godfrey

Harrison @ Noesi – Noesi getting better lately but still a tough matchup

Dickey @ McDonald

Zimmermann @ Halladay

Beachy @ Latos – Hang with ‘em on Latos… stuff is there

Nicasio @ Nolasco – Nicasio lights out on the road

Wood @ Happ

Cain @ Marcum

Volquez @ Wainwright

Harang @ Cahill – gamble on both/either as you see fit

ZACH’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Bailey @ Nova – Nova’s been too hit or miss of late. He needs to earn back my trust.

Batista @ Morrow

An. Sanchez @ Gomez

Burnett @ Smyly – Burnett’s last two starts too impressive to ignore. Smyly should do very well here.

Delgado @ Cobb

Kennedy @ B. Chen – Chen not a bad option vs. inconsistent ARI lineup.

Ross @ Vogelsong – Ross has been too hittable to trust, even vs. lowly Giants lineup.

Pavano @ Gallardo

Vargas @ Freidrich – Who cares if Freidrich is at home? These are the Mariners we’re talking about!

Hammel @ Detwiler

Lester @ Blanton – In mixed leagues, this is too risky of a matchup for Blanton.

Danks @ Dempster – I’m ditching Danks regardless of the opponent for the time being.

Holland @ Harrell

Haren @ Stauffer – Golden opportunity for Haren to get back on track. I’ll give Stauffer a mulligan for his last start.

Westbrook @ Kershaw – Westbrook deserves a shot here vs. Kemp-less Dodgers.

                                                                                                                                              SUNDAY

Cueto @ Sabathia

Johnson @ Lowe – Lowe’s pitched at least six innings while giving up 2 ER or less in each of his last five starts.

Correia @ Scherzer – Pirates lineup just what Scherzer needs to right the ship.

Gee @ Alvarez – Alvarez 7-for-8 in quality starts.

Hudson @ Price

Miley @ Teaford

W. Chen @ Strasburg – I’ll keep throwing Chen out there until he proves me wrong.

Beckett @ Lee

Lewis @ Lyles

Marquis @ Greinke

Peavy @ Maholm

Beavan @ Guthrie – Like Friedrich, I’ll roll the dice on Guthrie.

Big Erv @ Bass – This could be a fun matchup to watch.

Colon @ Lincecum

Lohse @ Billingsley – Very down on Billingsley right now. In tough matchup, I’m sitting this one out.

                                                                                                                                             MONDAY

Buchholz @ Hunter – Buchholz is still in my doghouse.

Paulino @ Kuroda – Playing it safe and ditching Paulino. Kuroda’s been excellent at home.

Drabek @ Hellickson – Need to see more from Drabek. Keep an eye on him though.

Williams @ Milone – Williams a no-brainer. Milone 23 IP 1 ER in three home starts.

Darvish @ King Felix

J. Santana @ Bedard

Gonzalez @ Kendrick

Minor @ Leake – Minor’s been flat out awful of late.

Moyer @ Buehrle

Garza @ Norris

Bumgarner @ Wolf – Wolf very frustrating to own but vs. SF? Why not!

Richard @ J. Garcia

Capuano @ Corbin – Capuano working on six straight quality starts.

Hey everyone,

Time for our weekly two-start pitchers post! Here are my thoughts on eight guys who stood out when I took a look at the list. Be sure to catch today’s podcast to hear what Mike and Cory have to say.

-Zach

                                                                                                                                                      Ubaldo Jimenez  (vs. DET, @CWS)

He’s coming off a quality start vs. SEA but who can’t post a quality start facing the Mariners. The reality is that Jimenez has been maddeningly inconsistent this year, and even though the Tigers and White Sox haven’t put up huge offensive numbers this year, they have the potential to wake up in a hurry. For the time being, I only trust Ubaldo when he’s facing very weak lineups. Ditch.

Clay Buchholz  (@BAL, vs. TB)

His last start @TB was solid, but I’m just not a fan of his. Not enough K’s and way too many hits (61 in 44 IP this season). This is far from an easy pair of matchups. Ditch.

Jerome Williams  (@OAK, @SEA)

West Coast exacta time! He’s a great pickup in all mixed leagues with 12 or more teams. Five quality starts in his last six outings and Mariners and A’s rank 12^th and 13^th in AL in runs scored. Pitch.

Felipe Paulino  (@NYY, @BAL)

Very impressive through three starts this year with a 1.93 ERA and 21 K’s in 18 2/3 IP. Not the friendliest set of matchups but two of his three starts this year came against the Yankees and Orioles, in which he tossed a combined 13 shutout innings. Not a must-add, as both of these starts are on the road, but a worthy gamble in deeper mixed leagues. Gotta love the strikeouts!

Randy Wolf  (vs. SF, @ARI)

We recently recommended Wolf for a two-start week @SF and @SD but he disappointed, failing to notch even one quality start. I’ve completely given up on this guy. The road matchup vs. the D-Backs could get ugly, and at this point I don’t even fully trust him vs. the Giants. Mixed leaguers need to ditch him.

Tommy Millone  (vs. LAA, vs. NYY)

The ultimate risk/reward play. He’s been lights out at home (3-0  0.39 ERA  0.65 WHIP in three starts) and the Angels and Yankees have both been struggling to score runs of late. In an AL-only, I think he’s a must-start, but in a mixed league I’d be wary. It’s only a matter of time before those offenses heat up.

Rick Porcello  (@CLE, @MIN)

The @MIN matchup makes Porcello somewhat tempting but it’s not enough to overshadow the 5.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, sky high hit rate and mediocre K rate. Too much risk and not enough reward. Ditch.

Edinson Volquez  (@STL, @NYM)

Not an easy call. The Cards are tops in the NL in runs scored, home runs and batting average and the Mets haven’t been terrible offensively. BUT they’ve had a lot more trouble hitting at home, ranking 14^th in the NL in runs and AVG and 15^th in homers. Volquez’s starts are always hard to watch, but he’s allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his first eight starts while striking out close to a batter per inning. I’ll say pitch.