2012 List of 12
When is the List of 12 not really 12 guys? When it’s 28 names, like this year!
For those of you unfamiliar with the List of 12, the concept is pretty simple: we look for starting pitchers who crossed the 500 career innings barrier during the previous season, and focus on them as potential breakout candidates for the upcoming season. The theory behind this is that it takes pitchers at least a couple of seasons to fully adjust to pitching in the Majors, so in fantasy we want to find guys who are ready to have breakout seasons but might still be a little under the radar. Some of these guys stink and will continue to stink, but if you’re looking for guys who are ready to take the next step, this list is a good place to start.
The original list was only 12 guys — hence the name — but since it’s drawn each year from an objective set of rules, sometimes we get fewer or more (in this year, a lot more!) than the original dozen.
There’s someone on the list this year for every taste and style. Some of them are already top-shelf stars (Kershaw, Price) and a few are already in that next tier of fantasy notoriety (Gio, Kennedy, Romero, etc). But even with so many whose values appears to be established, there are still some values to be found.
In the spirit of the original list, here’s a quick first-blush rundown of the dozen guys who I think are ones to watch this year, who best represent the spirit behind the List of 12:
***And here’s a link to the spreadsheet
Brandon Morrow – his walk rate has declined steadily since he joined the rotation in 2009, while maintaining an outstanding strikeout rate, for a nearly 3-to-1 K-BB ratio last year. VERY bad luck on his strand rate over the past two seasons has kept his ERA deceptively high, so he may still be struggling with runners on base. But if he conquers that this season, he could be a very solid #2… I’m buying.
Max Scherzer – moderately unlucky hit and strand rates, and a spike in his HR/FB, hid Scherzer’s overall improvements last year. His strikeout rate dipped somewhat, but he cut his walk rate even further, leading to a career-best K-BB ratio above the magic 3-to-1 mark. The home run may continue to be a problem, but Comerica Park should help mask that. 2010 looks like his baseline, and his upside is that of a #2.
Gio Gonzalez – the opposite of Morrow in that his walk rate has stayed too high, but he’s improved his strikeout rate while establishing his durability. The move to the NL should help, and even though he’ll miss pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum, Nationals Park is still a very favorable venue. He might not have Morrow’s upside but he’s not far behind… buy.
Anibal Sanchez – his strikeout rate spiked, he cut down the walks and got a few more grounders, but the ERA and WHIP actually rose as his home run rate doubled. As with Scherzer, 2010 looks like his baseline, and the improved Marlins’ offense should produce many more than the 10-11 wins he’s averaged over the past two seasons. Buy.
Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy was mostly healthy in 2011 and finally produced the strong season that eluded him in Chicago and Texas. His strikeout rate wasn’t great but he was extremely stingy allowing walks, leading to a Maddux-esque 4.9 K-BB ratio. His fly-ball ratio is about average, but thanks to cavernous Oakland Coliseum he allowed only 11 homers all season. Health is still a concern, but given that he should be a very solid #3 this year.
Luke Hochevar – Hochevar rediscovered his strikeouts in the second half, so the overall decline isn’t as alarming, and he cut his walk rate considerably overall. An excellent ground ball rate suggests his home run rate should drop down somewhat too, so if it all comes together this year he should be a strong #3.
Jeff Niemann – some of his second-half improvement came from good luck in his hit and strand rates, but his groundball and strikeout rates spiked as well, while the walk rate held steady. He gets enough grounders that the home run rate should be a little lower, too. It’s hard to see an ace here, but if everything breaks right, he could take a major step forward into the #3 tier.
Justin Masterson – he already had his breakout season in 2011, and he still struggles against lefties enough to suggest that he might not be capable of much better. On the other hand, his strong ground ball rate helps him limit the long ball, and while his K-BB ratio is good-but-not-great, it did improve in the second half. He’ll be hard-pressed to match 2011 again, but he’s unlikely to blow up again, and looks like a decent #3 or strong #4 starter.
Trevor Cahill – Even though he struck out more guys than in 2010, he walked more, and cruel regression in his hit and strand rates caused his ERA to climb by over a run. However, he was on the whole essentially the same pitcher, with excellent ground ball rates and a decent K-BB ratio. He won’t be an ace, but the move to the NL – even hitter-friendly Chase Field – should help him improve upon his 2011 numbers.
Colby Lewis – Lewis was essentially the same pitcher in 2011 as he was in 2010, but inflation in his fly ball and home run rates caused his ERA to jump by three-quarters of a run. The reality is probably somewhere in between, so he’s not going to be your ace, but he’s a solid rotation filler with good strikeout upside.
Chris Volstad – a poor man’s Justin Masterson, with an excellent ground-ball rate, good-but-not-great strikeout and walk rates, struggles vs. lefties. However, consistently unlucky strand rates have conspired to keep his ERA artificially high in past seasons… if he can improve his performance with runners on base, he could take a Masterson-like step forward this year. An excellent late-round flier in any format.
Rick Porcello – The good news is, Porcello reached a career high last year with 5.1 K/9. The bad news is, that’s awful. However, his strand rates have been very unlucky over the past two seasons, so with some regression there and even a slight bump in his K-BB ratio, he could take a step forward into the #3 tier. For now, he’s a useful end-of-rotation gamble.
As for the rest:
Clayton Kershaw and David Price are aces, and Price might even come at a small discount this year. Ian Kennedy and Ricky Romero are absolutely legit, although some small step back from their 2011 numbers wouldn’t be a huge surprise. C.J. Wilson and Hiroki Kuroda are known commodities.
Jeff Karstens, Kyle Kendrick, Clayton Richard, Kevin Slowey, Jason Vargas and Randy Wells are strictly pitch-or-ditch rotation fillers, although Richard is still a terrific home/away play whenever possible. Dallas Braden is coming off arm surgery and doesn’t provide enough K’s to warrant much concern, either.
Ryan Vogelsong was an out-of-the-blue shocker last year but faded in the second half and is a poor beat to repeat this year. Edinson Volquez walks WAY too many guys, but maybe the move to PETCO will help reverse his fortunes. I’m not going to be the one who rosters him to find out, though. Finally, near-perfect game or not, Armando Galarraga is simply not very good.
Questions? Comments? Feedback? Let’s hear it!
Thanks,
Cory
411 Expert Slow Mock
Hey everyone,
It’s official, the mock draft season is in full gear. Yesterday, we started up a 13-team, 30-round expert mock with many familiar names participating. I’ll be updating the results here on a regular basis so stay tuned. Here are the picks so far. Feel free to chime in with any questions or comments you might have, general or mock draft related.
On a side note, I’m sure a lot of you are wondering when Yu Darvish will come off the board. It won’t be anytime soon, but in the meantime check out Siano’s MLB.com article on Darvish. It’s a must-read!
-Zach
MOCK DRAFT RESULTS
ROUND 1
Jeff Erickson – Matt Kemp
Zach Steinhorn – Albert Pujols
Lawr Michaels – Miguel Cabrera
Cory Schwartz – Troy Tulowitzki
Ray Flowers – Robinson Cano
Steve Gardner – Jose Bautista
Todd Zola – Joey Votto
Joe Sheehan – Justin Upton
Will Carroll – Jacoby Ellsbury
Derek VanRiper – Carlos Gonzalez
Paul Sporer – Evan Longoria
Jason Collette – Prince Fielder
Eno Sarris – Hanley Ramirez
ROUND 2
Eno Sarris – Dustin Pedroia
Jason Collette – Ian Kinsler
Paul Sporer – Jose Reyes
Derek VanRiper – Adrian Gonzalez
Will Carroll – Curtis Granderson
Joe Sheehan – Clayton Kershaw
Todd Zola – Andrew McCutchen
Steve Gardner – Justin Verlander
Ray Flowers – Mark Teixeira
Cory Schwartz – Josh Hamilton
Lawr Michaels – Ryan Zimmerman
Zach Steinhorn – Mike Stanton
Jeff Erickson – Roy Halladay
ROUND 3
Jeff Erickson – David Wright
Zach Steinhorn – Matt Holliday
Lawr Michaels – Felix Hernandez
Cory Schwartz – Carlos Santana
Ray Flowers – Cliff Lee
Steve Gardner – Adrian Beltre
Todd Zola – Mike Napoli
Joe Sheehan – Ryan Braun
Will Carroll – Cole Hamels
Derek VanRiper – Elvis Andrus
Paul Sporer – Jay Bruce
Jason Collette – CC Sabathia
Eno Sarris – Brett Lawrie
ROUND 4
Eno Sarris – Hunter Pence
Jason Collette – Pablo Sandoval
Paul Sporer – Brian McCann
Derek VanRiper – Alex Gordon
Will Carroll – David Price
Joe Sheehan – Carl Crawford
Todd Zola – Jered Weaver
Steve Gardner – Starlin Castro
Ray Flowers – Kevin Youkilis
Cory Schwartz – Desmond Jennings
Lawr Michaels – Tim Lincecum
Zach Steinhorn – Michael Bourn
Jeff Erickson – Shin-Soo Choo
ROUND 5
JE – B.J. Upton
ZS – Alex Rodriguez
LM – Ben Zobrist
CS – Eric Hosmer
RF – Nelson Cruz
SG – Buster Posey
TZ – Brandon Phillips
JS – Craig Kimbrel
WC – Stephen Strasburg
DVR – Rickie Weeks
PS – Jason Heyward
JC – James Shields
ES – Jon Lester
ROUND 6
ES – Dan Haren
JC – Matt Wieters
PS – Dan Uggla
DVR – Zack Greinke
WC – Drew Storen
JS – Joe Mauer
TZ – Jimmy Rollins
SG – Paul Konerko
RF – Shane Victorino
CS – Drew Stubbs
LM – Matt Cain
ZS – Asdrubal Cabrera
JE – Miguel Montero
ROUND 7
JE – Alex Avila
ZS – Mariano Rivera
LM – Erick Aybar
CS – Jonathan Papelbon
RF – Adam Jones
SG – Brett Gardner
TZ – Yovani Gallardo
JS – Chase Utley
WC – Ichiro Suzuki
DVR – Aramis Ramirez
PS – Lance Berkman
JC – Corey Hart
ES – Mike Morse
ROUND 8
ES – Joel Hanrahan
JC – Cameron Maybin
PS – John Axford
DVR – Brian Wilson
WC – Ryan Howard
JS – Matt Moore
TZ – Michael Young
SG – C.J. Wilson
RF – Howie Kendrick
CS – Madison Bumgarner
LM – Andre Ethier
ZS – David Ortiz
JE – Michael Cuddyer
ROUND 9
JE – Dee Gordon
ZS – Ian Kennedy
LM – Nick Swisher
CS – Jayson Werth
RF – Mark Reynolds
SG – Billy Butler
TZ – Chris Young
JS – J.J. Hardy
WC – Ryan Roberts
DVR – Ike Davis
PS – Peter Bourjos
JC – Derek Jeter
ES – Adam Wainwright
ROUND 10
ES – Logan Morrison
JC – Martin Prado
PS – Matt Garza
DVR – Brandon Beachy
WC – Dustin Ackley
JS – Mike Moustakas
TZ – Ryan Madson
SG – Andrew Bailey
RF – Alexei Ramirez
CS – Jason Kipnis
LM – Jordan Walden
ZS – Jemile Weeks
JE – Kenley Jansen
Updated 2012 Rankings
Hey guys,
Because our most recent 2012 position-by position rankings came all the way back in September, we here at the 411 felt it was absolutely necessary to provide an update, with the Ryan Braun suspension having the most obvious effect. So here it is. And let us know what you think. Disagree with any of these? We want to hear from you!
-Zach
CATCHER
1. Brian McCann
2. Mike Napoli
3. Carlos Santana
4. Miguel Montero
5. Alex Avila
6. Buster Posey
7. Joe Mauer
8. Matt Wieters
9. Russell Martin
10. Yadier Molina
Honorable Mentions: Geovany Soto, J.P. Arencibia, Wilson Ramos
FIRST BASE
1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Adrian Gonzalez
4. Joey Votto
5. Prince Fielder
6. Mark Teixeira
7. Eric Hosmer
8. Paul Konerko
9. Lance Berkman
10. Michael Morse
Honorable Mention: Freddie Freeman
SECOND BASE
1. Robinson Cano
2. Dustin Pedroia
3. Ian Kinsler
4. Dan Uggla
5. Chase Utley
6. Ben Zobrist
7. Rickie Weeks
8. Brandon Phillips
9. Howard Kendrick
10. Dustin Ackley
Honorable Mentions: Neil Walker, Danny Espinosa
SHORTSTOP
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Jose Reyes
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Asdrubal Cabrera
5. Starlin Castro
6. Jimmy Rollins
7. Elvis Andrus
8. Alexei Ramirez
9. J.J. Hardy
10. Jhonny Peralta
Honorable Mentions: Derek Jeter, Erick Aybar
THIRD BASE
1. Jose Bautista
2. Evan Longoria
3. David Wright
4. Adrian Beltre
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Brett Lawrie
7. Michael Young
8. Alex Rodriguez
9. Aramis Ramirez
10. Pablo Sandoval
Honorable Mention: Mark Reynolds
OUTFIELD
1. Matt Kemp
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. Justin Upton
4. Carlos Gonzalez
5. Curtis Granderson
6. Andrew McCutchen
7. Mike Stanton
8. Hunter Pence
9. Matt Holliday
10. Carl Crawford
11. Jay Bruce
12. Josh Hamilton
13. Nelson Cruz
14. Desmond Jennings
15. Alex Gordon
Honorable Mentions: Shane Victorino, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Bourn
STARTING PITCHER
1. Justin Verlander
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Roy Halladay
4. Tim Lincecum
5. Cliff Lee
6. CC Sabathia
7. Jered Weaver
8. Felix Hernandez
9. Cole Hamels
10. Dan Haren
11. David Price
12. Matt Cain
13. Jon Lester
14. Zack Greinke
15. Ricky Romero
Honorable Mentions: Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy, James Shields
RELIEF PITCHER
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Mariano Rivera
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. John Axford
5. Heath Bell
6. Drew Storen
7. Jose Valverde
8. Brian Wilson
9. Joel Hanrahan
10. J.J. Putz
Honorable Mentions: Andrew Bailey, Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Jordan Walden
2012 MLB Fantasy Preview Magazine!
Zach here again,
Just a heads up that the 2012 Official Major League Baseball Fantasy Preview magazine will be available in newsstands January 27th. It’ll have positional rankings, individual player blurbs and projections, a 12-team mock draft in which Mike, Cory and I all participated and much more!
Buy it. You’ll like it.
Mastersball Mock – Version 2
Hey everyone,
Hope you all had a fun and relaxing holiday season! Now onto the business of fantasy baseball as draft day will be here before you know it. Time for the official mock draft season! Mike recently participated in a redo of the 15-team mock for the Mastersball Magazine (full post on the first draft can be found here), picking from the #11 spot. A lot has happened between November and now (most notably the Braun suspension) so that’s why the guys decided to do the draft again. Click on the link below for Mike’s round-by-round picks for both drafts along with his commentary for draft #2.
The magazine hits newsstands January 24th.
We’ll be putting up more blog posts over the next few days, so stay tuned. And as always, all comments/questions are welcome.
-Zach
Another Mock!
Monday night was the Mastersball Magazine Mock Draft, the issue hits newsstands January 24th and has more to it than just a mock. 15-team mixed league and I had pick #11.
-Siano
Other participants
|
Scott Pianowski – Yahoo! Sports |
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Doug Anderson – RotoExperts |
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Al Mechior – CBS |
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David Gonos – RotoExperts |
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Mike Siano – MLB.com |
|
Steve Gardner – USA Today |
|
Lawr Michaels – Mastersball |
|
Peter Kreutzer – Ask RotoMan! |
|
Mike Piekarski- BIS |
|
Doug Dennis – BBHQ |
|
Todd Zola – Mastersball |
|
Nicholas Minnix – KFFL |
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Jeff Erickson – RotoWire |
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Tim McLeod – RotoRob |
|
Gene McCaffrey – Wise Guy Baseball |
1.11 Jacoby Ellsbury: Would have considered Hanley here but he went two picks earlier so it came down to Ellsbury or Justin Upton. As much as I love Upton I thought Ellsbury’s runs, steals, average and newfound pop were too much to pass up. Not sure he can have a better year but as long as he comes close to repeating 2011 he is a first rounder.
2.5 Ian Kinsler: Wanted Pedroia but he went right before me. Kinsler finally was healthy and showed what he can do. Worth the risk that is still out there but man I wanted Pedey.
3.11 Jay Bruce: Was looking best OF available and to me that was Bruce. Power with some speed at a thin position in a 15-teamer. My average is already hurting but that’s ok.
4.5 Brian McCann: Addressed OF/2B and C in first four picks and got a top tier catcher.
5.11 Drew Stubbs: Took the chance that he goes 30-30 and gets his average up. Lots of good OFs still available but he may have the chance to be a great OF in 2012.
6.5 Craig Kimbrel: As the 411 states, get two stud closers. Cory isn’t a big fan of being the first to choose a CL but I’m honey badger on that. Jeff Erickson said on twitter I basically got a closer and a 5th SP because of his Ks and he is right. Was wondering if this would start a run, it did not.
7.11 Alexei Ramirez: Get up Alexei. I think he is underrated in fantasy, not great but definitely doesn’t hurt you. I like this pick.
8.5 Mariano Rivera: Believe it or not, I wrestled with Mo or David Freese. I really needed a 3B but felt that as much as I think Freese will have a solid year, he was unproven. This would come back to bite me some but I also could have taken Freese in the 7th. He would end up going two picks later.
9.11 Ricky Romero: I was the next to last GM to take a SP. No issue with this pick, very happy. To get an ace I would have had to take a starter in the
6th. The difference in talent at SP between the 7th and 9th was a wash unless you count Josh Johnson, but there is a reason he went in the 7th right?
10.5 Ike Davis: Only time will tell if this was a reach and as we get closer to March and games are played, we’ll see if he goes up or down. Could be a steal, could be fair or a bust I’ll take my 66% odds and hope for the best.
11.11 Ervin Santana: BIG ERV!!!!!!!!!!!!!
12.5 Max Scherzer: Romero, Erv and Scherzer is coming together nicely. I’m going to assume Max bounces back.
13.11 Austin Jackson: I took three OF in first five picks which allowed me some time to wait. Like Max, I’m expecting a bounce back on certain aspects of his game. He’s averaged 95 runs and 25 steals his first two years, not a bad 4th OF at all.
14.5 Derek Holland: Love this pick, great second half, high ceiling low risk in the 14th.
15.11 Jonny Venters: Hedge for Kimbrel and more. 96 Ks in 2011.
16.5 Casey McGehee: My least favorite pick but there was nobody else left except Danny Valencia. Gross.
17.11 Mike Adams: Who knows, he may be the CL in 2012. If not, I have a K per IP and great rate stats.
18.5 Justin Smoak: Here’s to hoping this is the year. Needed a CI/DH.
19.11 Eric Thames: It was him or Soriano, Soriano is boring.
20.5 John Jaso: Still the starter and still a chance to contribute no?
21.11 Ivan Nova: Great value here, absolutely nothing to lose and I think he has a big year. Love his stuff and demeanor.
22.5 Kendrys Morales: The main reason why my 2011 was a lost season was due to having Kendrys on too many teams. Now he becomes a buy opportunity. True story, since he didn’t play last year he was omitted from the draft room queue, I took Val Pascucci as a placeholder.
23.11 Marco Scutaro: Hey, he may play the whole year there, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
Early, Early Mock
Here I was kind of looking forward to an extended breather from the world of fantasy baseball. Those six months, or really eight months when factoring in the draft prep period, are so intense that by the time it’s all over I’m more than ready for it to be over, that is until about mid-January when I can’t wait for it to start again! In fact, I’ve never even done a mock draft before mid-January. Maybe I take mock drafts a bit too seriously, but I just wasn’t ready. Well, this year I decided to break my rule after being invited by Derek VanRiper of Roto Sports Inc. to participate in an NFBC style expert mock. 15 teams, 30-man rosters, hey why not? This would be the deepest mock draft I’ve ever been a part of, and by far the earliest. So what did I do to prepare? Very little. I printed out a set of rankings just to have the names in front of me on one page. In a 450-player draft, this was a must. My strategy? Nothing too complicated. I’d follow a best available player approach while paying attention to position scarcity. I know a lot of people like to try out radical strategies in mock drafts, but for the most part I’m not one of them, particularly this early in the offseason. I chose the #6 draft position as I generally prefer to be in the middle rather than having to constantly reach for players, but in retrospect I’m now thinking that the more teams in the league, the more it pays off to be at the wheel as you’re more likely to get the players you want. Anyway, click on the link below to see the results. Scroll further down for my commentary.
-Zach Steinhorn
http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/draft_grid.jsp?id=182727
Round 1 (Pick 6): Matt Kemp
Kemp vs. Tulo was a real tough call here as I’m a huge position scarcity guy, but I had my eye on a few of the mid-tier shortstops and I’m not overly impressed with the depth of the outfield pool. Will Kemp approach 40-40 again? Maybe not. But if his downside is 30-30 with a .285 average, I’ll take it.
Round 2 (Pick 25): Andrew McCutchen
Doubling up on outfielders with my first two picks. Not something I usually do but there’s a first time for everything! Thought about Holliday but opted for the younger and healthier McCutchen, who is coming off a poor second half but at 25 still carries tons of upside.
Round 3 (Pick 36): Dan Uggla
I was all set on taking A-Rod and then Lawr Michaels snatches him up with the pick right before me. Not in love with this pick but Uggla’s really the only second baseman who is a 30-HR lock, giving me a considerable power advantage over the other 14 teams.
Round 4 (Pick 55): Aramis Ramirez
One of my least favorite picks. Was focused on addressing the somewhat weak 3B position but probably should’ve waited a round and taken Lawrie. A-Ram is old and injury-prone and a move away from the Friendly Confines will only hurt his overall value.
Round 5 (Pick 66): J.J. Hardy
Continuing the trend of power middle infielders. There’s some downside with Hardy but, taking into account his position, I felt he was the best hitter available, and I was waiting as long as possible to draft my first pitcher.
Round 6 (Pick 85): Freddie Freeman
I like Freeman but considering his decent but not great power upside he’s not quite my ideal starting 1B choice. But at least I’d take Freeman over Billy Butler, who went with the pick before me. OK, I feel better now.
Round 7 (Pick 96): Ricky Romero
The SP wait is over. I’m going with Siano favorite Romero, hoping that he makes some progress in the control department.
Round 8 (Pick 115): Mariano Rivera
Whoa. Shocked that only three closers were taken up until this point, I’m more than happy to grab Mariano.
Round 9 (Pick 126): Jayson Werth
Yeah, yeah, he was a total bust last season. But I love taking guys at a discount the year after their bust season. Note that Werth came just one stolen base shy of going 20-20.
Round 10 (Pick 145): Jeremy Hellickson
Love this pick. The kid’s for real.
Rounds 11-15
Best pick: Joe Nathan (Round 13)
There’s little doubt in my mind that he’ll close next year, whether it be for the Twins or some other team. K rate is still strong and he’s coming off a solid second half. Low risk, high reward.
Worst pick: Kurt Suzuki (Round 15)
Needed a catcher and he was the best available. Not an awful pick but I’ve seen little to suggest that he’ll return to his ’09 form.
Rounds 16-20
Best pick: Jason Kubel (Round 17)
This guy is always underrated the fact that he missed a good chunk of last season due to injury makes him even more underrated. A safe bet for 20 homers and 85 or so RBIs. Should the free agent find a new club, he would benefit from the move away from pitcher-friendly Target Field.
Worst pick: Jair Jurrjens (Round 16)
Hard to criticize this one but I’m not a fan of the low K rate and the awful ’11 second half.
Rounds 21-30
I won’t bore you with this too much. Viciedo, Seager and Presley are nice fliers and Jim Johnson could see some save chances. Tim Heaney got really upset that I stole Johnson from him. Stealing picks in the 30th round. I love it!
All in all, I think I did a decent job in this ultra-challenging mock draft. Not overly thrilled, but then again I’m rarely satisfied with my early mock draft teams, so this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.
OK, I’m officially done with mock drafts until 2012…I think.
411 Postseason Recap
First, a re-post of the important 2011 end of season blog links:
Top 10 First Basemen and Third Basemen for 2012
Top 10 Second Basemen and Shortstops for 2012
2012 Catcher and Outfielder Rankings
2012 Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher Rankings
2011 All-Rookie and All-Injury Teams
2011 All-Fantasy Team and Report Cards
Fantasy 411 Pitch or Ditch Category Chart (Final Update)
COMPLETE PITCH OR DITCH STATS SPREADSHEET
_________________________________________________________________________
Here is a little look at some news and performers from the 2011 Postseason that I thought warranted a blog post. I’m a firm believer that the playoffs are irrelevant in impact to the following regular season. Otherwise, Pat Borders and Scott Brosius and Bucky Dent would be first rounders the following year and then there is what I call the Beckett trap. In the 2003 playoffs he made his name as he was outstanding and then promptly followed that up in 2004 with the same exact regular season, which was OK but not worth where he probably was drafted in the majority of leagues.
-Siano
Ryan Howard
Phillies hope he is ready by April. He should drop down on draft day, especially for those like myself who drafted Kendrys Morales and got ruined by his injury. Could be a value, could be a guessing game when he gets back. Long way to go but I’m probably avoiding altogether.
Matt Moore
Postseason (2 Games, 1 Start): 1-0 0.90 ERA 0.60 WHIP
He’ll be cheaper in mixed leagues than in AL-onlys, which sounds obvious but think about it in this perspective. Using Hellickson as a comp, he went for $13 in AL Tout this past season but went in the 16th round of a 12-team mixed. A 16th rounder sounds a heck of a lot cheaper than a double-digit dollar player in a $260 cap.
Jason Motte
Postseason (12 Games): 5-for-5 in saves 2.19 ERA 0.49 WHIP
Well now with LaRussa gone, we’ll never know if he was the closer. One weird game aside in the World Series and a Hamilton home run in the weirdest/greatest game ever, he was unbelievable to watch. I know we won’t see as drastic a usage and uncertainty in the 2012 regular season no matter who the skipper is. Love Motte as a #3 CL and we’ll see as mocks start in earnest in 2012 where he is falling. Right now, too early to tell.
David Freese
Postseason (18 Games): .397 AVG 5 HR 21 RBI .794 SLG 1.258 OPS
Great story and I feel solid future. He is the one guy who probably drove up his draft day price the most with his October and he may actually earn it. Went for $14 in NL Tout and if it was a keeper league and you had some slots open I don’t think it was the worst idea since he possibly could be a $20 player at a thin position. In mixed leagues he was probably undrafted so could be a gold mine to those who grabbed him off the wire and can keep him in last round. Or maybe I’m just smitten.
Allen Craig
Postseason (15 Games): .243 AVG (9-for-37) 4 HR 8 RBI .622 SLG 1.013 OPS
Speaking of smitten, could Joe Sheehan say his name any more times than he did in 2011? Seems he just needs a place to play every day. If Pujols doesn’t return he would be the biggest beneficiary. If Pujols does he becomes a solid NL- only play and a wire guy in mixed.
Paul Goldschmidt
Postseason (4 Games): .438 AVG 7-for-16) 2 HR 6 RBI .813 SLG 1.339 OPS
The merry go round for 1B in the desert is now out of commission.
Alex Avila
Postseason (11 Games): .073 AVG (3-for-41) 1 HR 2 RBI .146 SLG .263 OPS
I hope he drops on draft day because of his postseason but he won’t because the leagues I’m in the players are too smart to let that happen.
David Murphy
Overall Postseason (15 Games): .317 AVG (13-for-41) 0 HR 3 RBI .439 SLG .868 OPS
ALCS (5 Games): .412 AVG (7-for-17) 0 HR 3 RBI .647 SLG 1.147 OPS
The Rangers have some good problems to figure out in 2012 and this is one of them. If they give Leonys Martina a shot to win the center field job, there is no everyday job for Murphy it seems. This one needs more time since basing his value on the inevitable injuries to Cruz and Hamilton just isn’t enough in a mixed league.
Shaun Marcum
Postseason (3 Starts): 0-3 14.90 ERA 2.28 WHIP .395 BAA
August (6 Starts): 2.95 ERA 1.13 WHIP 2 HR allowed
September (5 Starts): 5.17 ERA 1.34 WHIP 5 HR allowed
I think he was hurt from September on. Maybe not DL hurt but he was just too awful. Could create a buying opportunity in mid to late rounds.
Derek Holland
DS (2 Games, 1 Start): 1.42 ERA 1.42 WHIP
LCS (2 Starts): 8.59 ERA 2.05 WHIP
WS (2 Games, 1 Start): 1-0 0.87 ERA 0.58 WHIP
Pre All-Star break (18 Starts): 7-4 4.68 ERA 1.47 WHIP
Post All-Star break (14 Starts): 9-1 3.06 ERA 1.21 WHIP
He could have pitched four CG SHO or pitched like Marcum, I’m buying either way. High ceiling and can dominate. He is a 411 darling for 2012.
Alexi Ogando
Overall Postseason (13 Games as reliever): 2.77 ERA 1.54 WHIP
DS (3 Games): 0.00 ERA 0.37 WHIP
LCS (4 Games): 1.17 ERA 0.65 WHIP
WS (6 Games): 10.12 ERA 5.25 WHIP
Just a weird October for Ogando. Wash needs to decide on his future and who knows what that means. It could depend on the Neftali Feliz decision for 2012 and/or CJ Wilson coming back or not. My guess is Rangers rotation and bullpen will look very similar to what it looked like in 2nd half of 2011 regular season.
NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS SO FAR
CC Sabathia signs extension with Yankees
No real change in value except that you won’t be chasing wins with CJ Wilson as a Yankee.
Derek Lowe traded to Indians
Good move by both teams. Indians lost two pitching prospects in the Ubaldo deal plus Carrasco.
Giants trade Jonathan Sanchez to Royals for Melky Cabrera
Sanchez: This is a better baseball trade than a fantasy trade I’m afraid. Sanchez, who I am a big fan of, leaves a great park, league and division. He now gets deeper lineups and could get hurt badly by his love for walking guys. Worth drafting in all leagues but to me value takes a hit.
Melky: I think his 2012 will be somewhere between his 2009 and 2011 seasons. I’d be shocked if he has another year like 2011. He could be a prime candidate for over drafting if people aren’t paying attention.
Thanks from the Fantasy 411 + Important Blog Links
Hey guys,
On behalf of the 411, I just wanted to thank all of you for your participation on the blog and on the show throughout the season. The viewer question segments continue to be my favorite part of the shows, and there were plenty of great questions to choose from each and every day. As for the blog Q&A, I only hope that we contributed in some way towards your fantasy success.
Below are links to our special end of season blog posts. Included are our preliminary 2012 position-by-position rankings along with our All-Surprise, All-Disappointment, All-Fantasy, All-Rookie and All-Injury teams of 2011. You’ll also see our most recent Pitch or Ditch category chart and, last but not least, the complete Pitch or Ditch Stats spreadsheet. Over the course of the season, I kept a record of the show picks (two pitches and two ditches per show) made by each of our analysts and entered in the results. Who was the most successful Pitch or Ditch player between Mike, Cory, Nando and Joe? Did anyone’s ditches perform better than their pitches? Well, you’ll just have to see for yourselves.
Yesterday’s podcast was our final one until November, but in the meantime feel free to continue asking your questions here and we’ll get back to you as soon as we can.
And finally, congratulations to our 2011 listener league winners:
411 League: Michael Sharzer
Ron Cey League: Jean Carlo
Paul C. Smith League: Jeanne from Hollywood
Marzano League: Mike Donovan
Thanks again, and enjoy the postseason!
Zach
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BLOG LINKS
Top 10 First Basemen and Third Basemen for 2012
Top 10 Second Basemen and Shortstops for 2012
2012 Catcher and Outfielder Rankings
2012 Starting Pitcher and Relief Pitcher Rankings
2011 All-Rookie and All-Injury Teams
2011 All-Fantasy Team and Report Cards
Fantasy 411 Pitch or Ditch Category Chart (Final Update)
COMPLETE PITCH OR DITCH STATS SPREADSHEET
The Final Pitch or Ditch for 2011! (9/28)
CORY’S PICKS
Morrow @ Humber – Humber has been terrible down the stretch
Lester @ Simon
McAllister @ Porcello
Betances @ Price – Johnny Wholestaff for the Yankees?
Harrison @ Richards
Chen @ Pavano – you read that right, kids
Gonzalez @ Vasquez
Volquez @ Batista – friendly reminder: Volquez is awful
Pomeranz @ Surkamp
Strasburg @ Volstad
Blanton @ T. Hudson
Carpenter @ Myers – Myers is white-hot in September
Locke @ Greinke – he will only pitch an inning or two, according to reports
Dempster @ LeBlanc
Lilly @ Saunders – if your season depends on a W, gamble on Saunders
***ZACH SAYS “Even @ SF I’d be a little scared to pitch Pomeranz coming off awful outing @ HOU. Pitch only if you have a safe ERA/WHIP cushion. Agree on rest.”
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