411 League Draft results

We just completed the 411 Listener League draft, the one that started it all. Now in its fourth (or maybe fifth?) year, this draft had to be the most unpredictable anyone could’ve imagined… check out some of these early picks!

Johan Santana (1st round, 4th overall)
Carlos Beltran (1, 7)
Derrek Lee (1, 12)
Felix Hernandez (2, 18)

And those were just the first two rounds! Our boy Stray from Detroit sure mixed things up… here are the complete results, courtesy of our pal Mitch (Statistical Anomolies) and MLB Radio Fans dot com.

And, for my own egotisical, narcissistic gratification, here are the projected final standings using Baseball Prospectus’ PECTOA weighted mean averages (in other words, conservative projections):

RK PTS TEAM BA R HR RBI SB W SV ERA WHIP SO
1 92 Schwartzstops .281 1248 297 1156 144 80 115 3.69 1.26 1001
2 83 Havalina Lumber Co. .280 1137 250 1032 140 122 24 3.64 1.22 1423
3 75 Statistical Anomolies .281 1194 338 1215 97 102 74 4.14 1.32 1179
3 75 Southern Incontinents .280 1097 259 1023 121 87 88 3.54 1.25 1103
5 70 Bloo Meenies .280 1130 262 1001 157 88 49 3.76 1.26 1163
6 62 Birds of a Feather .278 1188 332 1185 127 62 69 3.94 1.29 837
7 61 Stray Dogs .275 1108 290 1065 118 75 90 3.73 1.25 974
8 57 So. Larson Hamptonians .276 1160 328 1178 87 72 67 3.85 1.26 852
9 56 Soggy Cheeseballs .277 1171 299 1101 128 60 94 3.96 1.32 829
10 55 Texas High Heat .288 1047 231 934 143 119 22 4.17 1.32 1292
11 50 Gluttons .279 992 251 954 109 93 75 4.08 1.30 1235
12 48 Argyle Gargoyles .276 1016 237 915 130 77 77 3.81 1.27 1106

(Not bad with the HTML, huh??.)

So Siano doesn’t get mad at me, there are several caveats to these projections:

* Anyone can use any projections they like and get different results, but I trust BPro
* These include the two bench spots for all teams, figuring that everyone will keep their lineup full on Mondays and Thursdays, etc.
* Several teams had shoddy Internet connections and thus got stuck with autopicks they did not want… this happened to me just once and it was a player (Brad Penny) who I didn’t mind getting, although it was a few rounds early

Here’s how my draft went:

Rd Schwartzstops POS
1 Ramirez, Ma OF
2 Figgins, Ch 2B
3 Jeter, De SS
4 Nathan, Jo RP
5 Ryan, BJ RP
6 Holliday, Ma OF
7 Glaus, Tr 3B
8 Huff, Au 1B
9 Webb, Br SP
10 Giles, Br OF
11 Haren, Da SP
12 Jenkins, Ge OF
13 Mench, Ke OF
14 Penny, Br SP
15 Pierzynski, AJ C
16 Sweeney, Mi 1B
17 Bonderman, Je SP
18 Weathers, Da RP
19 Shields, Sc RP
20 Loaiza, Es SP
21 Dejesus, Da OF
22 Patterson, Co OF
23 Valentin, Ja C
R1 Adams, Ru SS
R2 Durham, Ra 2B

A few guys went a pick or two before me so I had to go for Plan B, but overall I’m very happy. No obvious panic picks (IMO), and I somewhat made up for the Patterson NFBC debacle by taking him here in the 22nd round. I probably overcompensated for my fear of a weak OF with the Giles-Jenkins-Mench salvo, but that only cost me a middle infielder and I wasn’t too worried after getting Figgins and Jeter early.

Here’s how it looks as a lineup:

POS Schwartzstops
C Pierzynski, AJ
C Valentin, Ja
1B Huff, Au
3B Glaus, Tr
CO Sweeney, Mi
2B Figgins, Ch
SS Jeter, De
MI Durham, Ra
UT Dejesus, Da
OF Ramirez, Ma
OF Holliday, Ma
OF Giles, Br
OF Jenkins, Ge
OF Mench, Ke
SP Webb, Br
SP Haren, Da
SP Bonderman, Je
SP Loaiza, Es
SP Penny, Br
RP Shields, Sc
RP Weathers, Da
RP Ryan, BJ
RP Nathan, Jo
BN Adams, Ru
BN Patterson, Co

If Patterson gets off to a good start, I’ll get him in there. Adams has some power/speed upside and if he slumps early, can be easily replaced by several comparable players off waivers.

A few sayings I keep in mind during all drafts:

* It’s better to have a bad plan and execute than to have no plan at all
* No battle plan ever survives first contact with the enemy
* Or, as Mike Tyson once said, "everyone has a plan until they get hit"! :-)

My plan didn’t go flawlessly — I wanted Rollins over Jeter, K-Rod over Nathan and Barrett over Pierzynski to name a few, and just missed on them — but I feel I was able to adjust on the fly and mostly get the kind of team I like to have. And with better pitching, too! :-)

Next draft on Friday morning!

–CS

11 Comments

That looks like really good!

Maybe you should start a radio show or something to share your fantasy knowledge :)

I’m amazed that even though everybody in the league, I presume, knows your preferences, you still got Webb at a good round and Bondermann at a great round

Regards,

Bertil from Sweden

I would like to know how anybody can win some free MLB Swag with Stray in a draft?!

Stray, I’m throwing you under the bus!! Beltran at 7…..

If somebody guessed that draft, then it’s rigged!! LOL

What was the final deciding factor that made you go with “Man Ram”? Btw, I have the #5 pick in the Gentile League, which drafts Saturday.

I see Utley went just before you picked in round #2, if he was there, would you have taken him or were you going speed no matter what?

I can’t wait to hear you and Siano-Man discuss the darft today.

The Stray Dogs draft is amazing…though I do like them getting “The Wizard” in round 3. I think he drafted every controversial player out there! lol

Johnny Archive

I opted for Manny for two big reasons: first, I wanted to get a proven masher in the first round, because I figured I’d be able to get enough speed in the next 4-5 rounds so that I wouldn’t need Crawford. So that left it as Manny vs. DLee. I like that Lee will give 12-15 more steals and would’ve loved the speed, but I felt that 1B was so much deeper than OF, that I needed my first pick to be an OF and I could get a 1B later… Sweeney in the 16th could be a huge steal since he’ll be DH’ing this year. Also, while I think Lee will put up big numbers again this year, Manny is a more proven commodity and more likely to repeat or better last year’s stats.

Utley was never a consideration, because once I took Manny I needed speed and that made Figgins the perfect choice in the 2nd round.

–CS

Those projections are weak…

I couldn’t be more satisfied with my results, and have some upside players that aren’t properly reflected in the projections. We’ll see if I finish in dead last.

Also strange how the auto-picker is projected to finish 2nd, and he probably hates his team.

Look for big numbers from Thome and Prior plus lots of steals from lugo/gathright in the coming weeks.

Looking forward to another fun season. Best of luck to everyone.

-Lou from Tampa (Cincy)

Argyle Gargoyles

One more thought….

Based on Shandler’s projections, my offense scores 42 points instead of 15. And I’m also more bullish than he is on Wilkerson, Thome, VMart, Floyd than he is.

Isn’t this game fun?

-Lou

Yeah, like I said, the BPro projections are naturally conservative and 10 sets of projections will yield 10 different results. I am going to run the entire standings off the Shandler projections for all my leagues, so I’ll post that here for comparison purposes, once I’m done.
–CS

Standings based on Shandler projections. (i was a bit off by not calculating the entire league with my 42 point offense projection!)

Can’t quite get the html figured out (cheers to you, Cory!), but you get the idea.

R HR RBI SB AVG W Sv K ERA WHIP

south larson hamptonians 1,123 357 1,261 103 0.276 42 71 120 887 3.55 1.20 37 79

BIRDS OF A FEATHER 1,262 344 1,252 133 0.275 51 78 98 1,031 3.54 1.26 28 79

bloo meenies 1,178 292 1,035 166 0.277 40 95 75 1,231 3.58 1.23 34 74

Schwartzstops 1,216 312 1,174 146 0.282 43 87 103 1,068 3.71 1.26 26 69

statistical anomalies 1,206 332 1,235 107 0.282 36 117 83 1,274 3.86 1.26 31 67

Stray Dogs 1,038 270 1,022 109 0.273 25 92 111 1,181 3.57 1.21 41 66

Argyle Gargoyles 1,088 304 1,075 155 0.282 34 82 91 1,211 3.58 1.22 31 65

Havalina Lumber Co. 1,078 237 990 125 0.277 20 124 34 1,460 3.57 1.22 44 64

Soggy Cheeseballs 1,118 324 1,124 145 0.276 43 69 119 928 3.78 1.27 19 62

Gluttons 1,048 283 1,043 139 0.281 27 100 98 1,239 3.67 1.27 33 60

The Southern Incontinents 1,037 247 966 113 0.282 10 93 106 1,151 3.53 1.26 40 50

Texas High Heat 1,052 250 996 141 0.288 19 130 34 1,337 3.81 1.27 28 47

Well, 7th IS better than last. :-)

–CS

Okay, now I’m mad! How dare the Commissioner schedule his darn news conference at the same time the Fantasy 411 starts. Grrr. I think to make up for this travesty, the Fantasy 411 should, as of Monday 4/3, go to a daily format!! In addition, I’d like to see the show start a little earlier to avoid future attempts to interupt the show…say 11AM Eastern? Okay, who’s with me AHHHHH!!!(Runs out the door like Belushi in Animal House)

What a terribly frustrating draft for me (Havalina Lumber Co.). The Ghost Autodrafting set me off, I was livid. FYI: after successfully Mock drafting, the system allowed me to enter the draft, post on the chat, make a watch list and then not pick any players. Of the 25 picks I would have made 6 of them. Lemonade Baby! The worst reprocussion was the lack of saves. Now everyone is taking Cory’s advice and charging a premium. We shall see. The other autodraft team was Texas High Heat (note the large amount of W’s from SP autodraft overload in both HLC and THH.) Hate is a strong word, but dissapointment is more true, now I don’t have the feeling I will destroy all, like the other years. Just win if my “high” upside pans out, like in Cory n Pat’s NFBC team.

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