COMBINED PROJECTIONS ARE HERE!
I’ve been promising these for weeks, and the time has come… combined average projections from five of the biggest providers in the business. Out of respect to them and all of our partners, I won’t say who, but trust me you’ve heard me talking about all of them on the show in the past. A few caveats:
* These are not "my" projections, they are merely averages of the projections provided by these sources. So if you don’t like one projection or another, I don’t wanna hear about it!
* Also don’t blame me if some of the names on the list seem a little odd. Why bother with a projection for Jeromy Burnitz or Matt Herges? Hey, they’re on the list, I average ‘em up and pass ‘em on.
* And, some of the position/role assignments might not be entirely reliable, so don’t use this list to determine position eligibility. I’ll be using this strictly for stats, nothing more. (The team/league assignments, however, should be accurate as of February 27, when I last updated that part of the spreadsheet.)
* To my eye, these projections seem a little conservative on the whole, although an average projection that calls for 49 homers for Ryan Howard can’t be all that conservative!
* The number of projections averaged for each player is provided… obviously those with 5 projections are likely to be more predictive than those with 1 or 2.
* A couple of the projection systems provide stats for the player on a "what if" basis… if this guy played in the Majors this year, what would he do? Other systems are based on what they guy will do… so again, these should be discounted for younger players and those who are less likely to appear in the Majors this year. Chip Cannon could hit 24 homers this year, according to these projections, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be in the Majors to do it.
* The OBP value for hitters is not exacting, since not all of the sources provided the HBP and SF values needed to calculate it. In case anyone cares, I calculated it as ((H+BB)/(AB+BB))*1.05, tacking on the five percent increase as a proxy for HBP and SF. But who cares, it’s the BB vs. SO ratio we care about anyway.
* Similarly, not all sources projected saves… as we know those are based more on opportunity than anything else. Focus on WHIP and K/BB for potential (and actual) closers.
* Finally, remember that any projection is a living them and is heavily dependent on a player’s health and opportunity as much as their performance record. Bernie Williams is projected for 321 at-bats, but he’s got to find a job first.