COMBINED PROJECTIONS ARE HERE!

I’ve been promising these for weeks, and the time has come… combined average projections from five of the biggest providers in the business. Out of respect to them and all of our partners, I won’t say who, but trust me you’ve heard me talking about all of them on the show in the past. A few caveats:

* These are not "my" projections, they are merely averages of the projections provided by these sources. So if you don’t like one projection or another, I don’t wanna hear about it!

* Also don’t blame me if some of the names on the list seem a little odd. Why bother with a projection for Jeromy Burnitz or Matt Herges? Hey, they’re on the list, I average ‘em up and pass ‘em on.

* And, some of the position/role assignments might not be entirely reliable, so don’t use this list to determine position eligibility. I’ll be using this strictly for stats, nothing more. (The team/league assignments, however, should be accurate as of February 27, when I last updated that part of the spreadsheet.)

* To my eye, these projections seem a little conservative on the whole, although an average projection that calls for 49 homers for Ryan Howard can’t be all that conservative!

* The number of projections averaged for each player is provided… obviously those with 5 projections are likely to be more predictive than those with 1 or 2.

* A couple of the projection systems provide stats for the player on a "what if" basis… if this guy played in the Majors this year, what would he do? Other systems are based on what they guy will do… so again, these should be discounted for younger players and those who are less likely to appear in the Majors this year. Chip Cannon could hit 24 homers this year, according to these projections, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be in the Majors to do it.

* The OBP value for hitters is not exacting, since not all of the sources provided the HBP and SF values needed to calculate it. In case anyone cares, I calculated it as ((H+BB)/(AB+BB))*1.05, tacking on the five percent increase as a proxy for HBP and SF. But who cares, it’s the BB vs. SO ratio we care about anyway. :-)

* Similarly, not all sources projected saves… as we know those are based more on opportunity than anything else. Focus on WHIP and K/BB for potential (and actual) closers.

* Finally, remember that any projection is a living them and is heavily dependent on a player’s health and opportunity as much as their performance record. Bernie Williams is projected for 321 at-bats, but he’s got to find a job first. :-)

HERE THEY ARE!! Right-click and "save as" to download batting and pitching… one file for each, saved as .pdf’s. Enjoy!

CS

22 Comments

does Brian Banister project to 17 wins?
can’t wait to see those projections…

Bob in Oregon

another reason to look forward to your show.

GP

Wow, you guys are on top of this! A few sneak previews to get you going:

Alex Gordon

.285-21-78-13-79 in 470 AB’s

Derrek Lee

.298-31-87-14-88 in 494 AB’s

Chris Young (ARI)

.268-25-77-16-89 in 483 AB’s

In other words, think about what these guys might do with 550-600 AB’s!

Daisuke Matsuzaka

3.64 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.39 SO/9 in 192.2 IP

See ya Monday! — CS

Cory,

If you are using excel, you might find this handy –

Some projection stats are so far out of whack that they skew overall numbers when you take the “average.” A good example of this is ZiPS, since it is based on a formula (Ex: Pedro projected for ~ 185 innings).

The best way I have found to counter this problem is by using “Median” as your formula derivative instead of “Average.” The result is that you end up with a player’s most likely numbers (rather than trying to predict the most “accurate”).

I look forward to the finished product. Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and I look forward to tomorrow’s show.

Jerryt

Silver Spring, MD

Cory,
Thanks so much. This is extremely helpful to all of us. I just finished reading Fantasyland so my appetite for these numbers has been sufficiently whetted!

Pete

Rochester, NY

Cory, Thanks of this great information. Love it!

Anyone know a way to import this into Excel??

Tampa Pete

Thanks for the info Cory. This is really helpful! I would agree that for some guys the numbers look conservative.

Jose Reyes is projected to hit 287 w/ only 96 runs and 52 stolen bases. If he performed to this level would you still say he is worth the 2nd pick overall?

They seem to not be as high on the speed guys as they are on the power guys. Guess chicks aren’t the only ones that dig the long ball.

Seems like the 12-HR projection for Reyes is extremely low in particular, especially since he hit 19 last year and is not an extreme ground-ball hitter. I’m not writing him down for 30 just yet, but I certainly think another 18-20 is reasonable again, maybe a few more.

That said, I’m starting to lean away from Reyes at #2 because of the possibility that Hanley Ramirez or Rollins might be available with the corresponding 2nd round pick, or even Furcal in the late 3rd/early 4th. Based on the 15-team mock drafts I’ve done out of the 2/3 spots, I feel better off with A-Rod and Hanley than Reyes and whatever power bat I would get in the 2nd round.

— CS

can you split into AL and NL?

Thanks Mike. That’s why I wanted to import to Excel so I could split them.

Tampa Pete

Mike, Pete,

Check your inbox’s.

I’ve put these into excel for you.

Jerryt

Silver Spring, MD

Would it be possible for you to send me a .xls also?

These are fantastic Cory, thanks!

I am in the middle of a long auction, and am using projections to find over-hyped players for this year: Delmon Young, Ervin Santana, Robinson Cano, etc… and open them up to **** some cash from teams. Kinda like in Fantasyland, only without a sultry woman to further engross my opponants.

I forgot to add the ever mediocre Verlander, who is going for $16 in a 12 team $285 5×5 mixed.

Projection/Draft time is the best time of the year, since it is all theoretical, and you don’t have to let actual performance (luck based) get in the way of potential.

Thanks Cory!

In the spirit of beggars being choosers, would it be possible to post the rankings in excel so we can sort them?

Jerryt, I got your e-mail and there’s good news and bad news. The good news is, I double-checked the formula logic I used to build these spreadsheets and confirmed that none of the numbers could be undercounted, because everything was built against player ID’s.

The bad news is, there are TWO instances of two guys with the same names where I used the same player ID and thus got their player projections combined: Abraham Nunez (who cares) and Jose Reyes (oops).

There is a catcher in the Mets system also named Jose Reyes and his projections got mixed in with those of the 1st round SS, dragging down the overall numbers. However, the revised numbers are still not as great as we all might have expected:

.294-16-72-59-114

As for the issue of not posting this in Excel, I’m sorry to say that’s by design. As noted above, this is a combined projection of those provided for-pay by several MLBAM business partners and others, so out of respect to them, this is in “read only” format. However if some enterprising soul manages to copy them into Excel and then circulates that from the mlbradiofans.com site, for example, nothing I can do about that, right? :-)

CS

Any chance of getting the files in Excel format?

Later,

Steve

Sorry about that. Didn’t read all of the posts. pdf format is ok.

Can someone post the file in Excel format? It would rock!

Cheers,

Chip

if you want to convert these to excel you have to first copy the charts from the pdf into a notepad file. In excel go to data and import external data. import it based on spacing. be careful with names that are 3 words, jerry hariston jr, chan ho park, etc as the rest of the columns wont line up.

Now if I could just get these automatically imported into Rotolab, I’d be set.

thanks Cory – ZackPhilly.

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