UPDATED projections – March 6

Sorry to those of you who have already downloaded and started tinkering around with the original set of projections, but here are new batting and pitching files, updated March 6 with these changes:

* Most importantly, replaced one set of base projections with another… without naming names, let’s just say I took out a set that I didn’t think was realistic and replaced it with another set from a provider who I feel is a little more credible. The revised numbers don’t show a huge difference because these are after all averages, but in a few places they do seem a little more reasonable.

* Took out CS for hitters (a few providers didn’t include it) but added "EYE" (BB/SO) since we care a lot about plate discipline;

* Corrected the projections for both Jose Reyes and both Abraham Nunez, plus a few other minor player_ID mapping tweaks.

Finally, to re-state my response to a few of the comments…

I’m purposefully not providing these in Excel, since I’m effectively giving away something our partners and other providers charge for, so this is out of respect to them and their products. However, as mentioned before, I can’t stop someone from trasferring them into Excel and then circulating them via some other means, right?🙂

Thanks for the great response to this and for listening to the show, I hope this helps everyone get their draft strategy ready!



Sweet. Thanks Again.

Once again, great work. I had done something similar to this in the past, so this saves me a lot of time.

Hey Cory,
any chance of seeing these in as .xls files?

I tried to extract the data and managed to get it to Word but can’t bring it forward into Excel.

-Lukas in London.

Cory —

Dedicated podcast listener. Thank you very much for the composite statistical information. Very valuable!!

Pat in Mechanicsburg,PA

Thanks Cory!

FYI, I successfully converted the pdf. to .xls and am sorting away.

I don’t want to mooch off the work of others, but would you be able to e-mail me an xls of the projections Jeremy?

-William at Northwestern U

I converted the batting to xls and I’ll have the pitching done soon. I’d be happy to e-mail it out if people want it. Hopefully there are no errors in my conversion…

Thanks Corey!

-William at Northwestern

Not sure if you read these comments but wanted your input on a new method I am using for player ranking using these projections.

I took the median for top 20 position players and top 60 starting pitchers and calculated how many standard deviations above this median players were. Here are some of the results:


Mauer Joe 8.29

Martinez Victor 6.08

McCann Brian 5.16


Pujols Albert 11.48

Howard Ryan 6.37

Teixeira Mark 5.11


Utley Chase 9.70

Cano Robinson 4.10

Roberts Brian 3.32


Cabrera Miguel 7.79

Rodriguez Alex 7.37

Wright David 5.76


Tejada Miguel 5.71

Reyes Jose 5.01

Jeter Derek 4.94


Guerrero Vladimir 7.81

Soriano Alfonso 6.83

Crawford Carl 6.45


Santana Johan 12.59

Carpenter Chris 7.34

Oswalt Roy 6.45

I’d be interested if you thought this was a sound strategy to use in ranking players.

Bob, the outcome certainly makes the method seem plausible; Cabrera, Tejada and Vladdy are debatable #1 guys at their positions but clearly they are in the mix with the others you ranked. And the gaps between Utley and Santana, and the #2 guys at their respective positions, clearly show up here.

Glad everyone’s enjoying the projections!


Not baseball related. Guys: because this blog posts your full e-mail address after each comment, it appears to me that a web bot is picking up (at least my) e-mail address and sending me spam. Any way the tech guys could alter the way the e-mail address appears to stop bots from detecting the e-mail addresses? Sorry for getting off the baseball track…

Anyone have the excel that they can e-mail me? I am not in your league so its safe.


So close yet so far away, i have been waiting for the projections and happy day they are here, but i guess i am not computer savy because i cannot convert them to Excel. I have been at this for hours and am stuck.

I am left with no other option but to rely on the mercy of other listeners and hope that someone will be kind enough to e-mail me the projections in excel format.

My draft is in a week please help. Thanks in advance.

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