NFBC projections

Thanks for everyone’s comments on the first NFBC post. There were a lot of good hitters (Damon, C.Guillen, B.Hall, etc.) and closers (M.Rivera, Street, Hoffman) available when we took Carpenter, but we couldn’t pass up on the value of getting him in the 4th. I’ve never had a 1-2 like Santana and Carpenter, it will be fun to find out what that’s like!

Anyway, I finished putting the complete 2007 NFBC Chicago league 4 draft

into my program tonight, generated the projected standings and here’s what we have (Pat and I are team 12):

TM AVG R HR RBI SB W SV ERA SO WHIP PTS
13 .2845 1071 270 1062 138 104 44 3.872 1106 1.256 104.5
12 .2755 1041 271 1028 135 83 72 3.615 1076 1.223 95.5
5 .2806 1077 291 1086 109 93 74 4.110 1175 1.316 95.0
6 .2841 1062 242 981 160 96 11 3.844 1075 1.262 90.5
1 .2804 1106 286 1073 101 65 107 3.802 897 1.301 88.5
9 .2865 1149 252 1071 104 84 47 3.819 1022 1.275 88.5
3 .2831 1034 235 955 152 82 92 3.847 1095 1.270 84.5
8 .2911 1059 219 925 147 65 54 3.682 918 1.248 80.5
2 .2765 1041 298 1027 127 90 49 4.058 1156 1.320 77.0
7 .2756 999 267 947 110 108 44 3.811 1256 1.307 74.5
14 .2741 1032 259 967 173 86 62 4.003 1095 1.307 72.5
4 .2860 995 253 1009 90 90 53 3.867 1075 1.275 70.0
11 .2778 1006 280 1044 100 84 106 4.014 964 1.325 63.5
10 .2906 950 220 906 112 69 84 3.936 972 1.306 58.0
15 .2835 1007 224 900 136 64 56 3.879 936 1.265 57.0

(Note that in the complete draft results spreadsheet, an "R" next to the team number indicates that I counted this as a reserve pick and didn’t include the player in the projected stats, so these represent projections for the opening day 23-man roster for each team. Obviously waiver wire and bench players will influence this, but this is still pretty useful for comparing the strength of each team’s draft.)

As expected, we’re right near the top of the league thanks to the expected awesomeness of Santana and Carpenter, plus a lot of sluggers and enough speed and bullpen to get by. The extremely low AVG obviously hurts us, and obviously we’re taking a huge risk on the production of our key youngsters, Chris Young and B.J. Upton. But I’m using the same overall set of projections for everyone, so if the projections equally balance risk and reward for all players, then our upside is pretty high…

What’s particularly encouraging about this is that we are projected for only 1261.2 IP, 10th out of the 15-team league. However, we are projected to lead the league in ERA and WHIP by fairly sizable margins, so we should be able to take some additional risks to rack up more W and K’s without risking our lead in those categories. And there’s the value of those two aces! :-)

 

16 Comments

Nice…

I hope sheff doesn’t get old for you…

Also, isn’t it time for Siano to post a rant about how he hates league projections?

Zack-Philly

That’s too funny. I can just imagine Siano going off today. Should make for a great show.

I want to take back my initial thoughts and evaluation of your draft results Cory. I just looked over the entire draft and you are sitting much better than I originally thought. This Team #13 that is projected to win is hinging his season on the likes of some crusty, old or oft- injured players. His staff, anchored by Shilling, Escobar,Mussina,Glavine and Billy Wagner is scary old or of scary health. He’s also looking to young players to produce to help carry his offense. Kendrick,Baldelli, Quentin and Burke are all going to have to click for him. He’s also going to pin a lot of hopes on Tori Hunter, who’s ability to stay healthy is always a guess.

Bottom line, the team that projects as the best could have it all crumble around him. This race is going to be very tight IMO. If Cory stays all over that waiver wire, I think he’s got a better shot than it first appeared. What a screwy draft that was though. This demonstrates that a depth of baseball knowledge is more important than a Draft Plan. The Plans A through D got torn up by Round 5.

Mark (TBOS) in NY

I also find it ironic that the dead $ in this league settles in on Teams 15 and 14. While most of us would salivate over that draft position, it is inexcusable to have come out of that slot with such a poor draft.

A lot of people are complimenting the choice of Johan and Carpenter, but I think this chart shows why it was the wrong choice.

“Best available” may be a solid strategy when there is trading as an option, and you can flip Carpenter for a good bat, but this league doesn’t have trades. You defend it as allowing you to pitch and ditch a little more, but I think the possible gains in K and W in waiver-wire pitcher is much less than the gains in the offensive categories if you had taken a fourth round hitter instead.

Essentially, according to your projections, choosing Carpenter allows you to win ERA and WHIP by even more, in exchange for giving up 2 or 3 points each in R, HR, and RBI for a solid hitter.

MATT IN PHILLY

Matt, thanks for the comments. Good point about the loss of “value” since we can’t trade, and no doubt this shows the risk in reaching too much for SP’s, which is why we’re typically against it. I appreciate the feedback!
–CS

Hey Cory,

I am just wondering who you would have taken in the 4th round other than Carp. I haven’t done any 15 team drafts, but Thome and Bill Hall are the only guys I taken before Sexson with 30+ HR upside. For argument’s sake, what happens to the projections if you sub out Carp for Thome/Hall and put in Bonderman (who you could have had in the 6th round)

Cory,
I find your projections to be overly optimistic. Santana I agree with, but Carpenter was a crucial error, because you lost a major offensive pick. I think temptation got the better of you with this pick. You have a lot of old hitters, frequently injured…Sheff, Sexson…very weak catching, and only Roberts for considerable speed and Miguel Cabrera for considerable pop. Burrell goes as the wind blows and is low average. I can’t see this being a second place team by any stretch of the imagination..only if EVERYTHING breaks right, and they rarely do in Fantasy Sports.

I think you are guilty of building your team up and selling several of your rivals short.

Sorry, I just call ‘em as I see ‘em.

But of course, I wish you the best of luck!

STEVE in GERMANY

hey cory,
everybody seems to think that carpenter was a bad pick, but if u actualy go look at the whole draft carpenter was far and away the best player available and it was crazy he fell. The things that seemed a little unchariceristic were taking santana over guys like berkman and sizemore and also taking sheff over matsui.

Thinking this team won’t compete near the top is crazy, especially because its nearly garnteed to win ERA and WHIP.

overall nice draft, certaily shoked everyone

Justin, Delaware

I’m pretty surprised that Tejada went 39th overall.. That seems really late.. But I see his production dropping this year so I guess thats a popular opinion….

Cory, I think you filled out your team pretty well, considering your 2nd & 4th went to pitching. It will give you some satisfaction to see them taking the mound every 5th day & not have to worry about needing 5 no hitters to get your WHIP back to baseline after a Jeff Weaver / Bruce Chen implosion…

Martin in NY

Steve, just one point of contention with your thoughts, these are not “my” projections… they are objective in every sense so I just added up the numbers and this is what came out. No doubt my team carries plenty of risk — plenty of old guys who have to stay healthy, plenty of young guys who have to step up — but risk also brings reward…

Thanks for the feedback!

–CS

I don’t have a problem with the Carpenter pick at all, because I do think he was far and away the best player on the board at pick 49. But Cory, why the man crush on Brian Roberts? Am I the only one who doesn’t get it? Even in the PDF files you posted here on the blog, Roberts numbers look eerily similar to that of Kendrick, Barfield and Kinsler, with Kinslers actually looking a little superior. I know you were wondering about missing out on speed, and obviously Figgins doesn’t qualifty at 2B in NFBC or I assume you would have taken him instead, no? Tough call, but I probably would have taken the dependability of Konerko there. I mean you found a cheap source of steals in Patterson last year in the NFBC, right? The pick of Konerko in round 3 would have then allowed you to take Delmon Young in the 6th. Granted he swings at everything but so does Sexson. At least you would have gotten your 25 steals. Also, I see all the quality arms that went after Gagne (Haren, Hill, Kazmir, Hamels, Cain). It would have been tough for me to pull the trigger on such an injury risk when your boy Haren was there. That’s why I can’t pony up the $650. Too much second guessing. Again, with FAAB, you guys can make this work, I’m sure of it.

-Evan in CT.

Edit: Sexson walks quite a bit, but strikes out a ton, something Delmon Young does NOT do. My bad.

hey cory!
i was just wondering if drafting santana almost obligates you to draft another stud pitcher to solidify your advantage, or if you can afford to look away from sp for a while once you draft santana first. did any of this factor into your descision to draft carpenter? great show! -pete

Pete, after Santana we were planning on hanging back until the 8th or so, but Carpenter fell into our laps. Once we got him we easily agreed to spend at least 10 straight picks on bats and bullpen.

Evan, two things… one, we took Gagne because there was a sick run on closers and we were afraid to get shut out while only having Fuentes on our roster. If healthy we think Gagne will be a fair value pick for the 8th round, plus we got Otsuka to back him up.

Second, here’s why I have a mancrush on Roberts this year:

AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS

.312 602 100 188 39 6 24 71 60 79 32 9 .375 .517 .892

Those are his combined stats for the first half of ’05, when he first displayed double-digit HR power, and the second half of ’06, after he was fully recovered from his season-ending injury from September of ’05. Given his age (29), the lineup and home ballpark in which he plays, his consistent speed and his fly-ball stroke, I think these are reachable numbers this year, or something like this. That would put him a lot closer to Chase Utley in value than guys like Kendrick, Kinsler and Barfield.

Yeah, it’s a risk, but for the money I’m going after upside and value wherever I can.

–CS

Hey Cory,

You talked today about creating dollar values for each player based on your projections. Do you have an objective formula that you use in excel, or do you just subjectively determine a value? I have been use the PFM on bp, but that only takes into account their projections, and not the combined .pdf list from the blog, and I am trying to figure out a way to do it other than “yeah, I guess I would take Holliday for $28, but not $29…”

Tom, still working on dollar values. The problem is they change drastically based on the number of teams in the league; going from 12 teams to 13, like in Tout, adds another $260 that is mostly spent on the top 30-40 players, rather than distributed evenly. So basically I’m re-doing my values by hand based on previous Tout results and this year’s LABR results.
–CS

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