Thanks for everyone’s comments on the first NFBC post. There were a lot of good hitters (Damon, C.Guillen, B.Hall, etc.) and closers (M.Rivera, Street, Hoffman) available when we took Carpenter, but we couldn’t pass up on the value of getting him in the 4th. I’ve never had a 1-2 like Santana and Carpenter, it will be fun to find out what that’s like!
Anyway, I finished putting the complete 2007 NFBC Chicago league 4 draft
into my program tonight, generated the projected standings and here’s what we have (Pat and I are team 12):
(Note that in the complete draft results spreadsheet, an "R" next to the team number indicates that I counted this as a reserve pick and didn’t include the player in the projected stats, so these represent projections for the opening day 23-man roster for each team. Obviously waiver wire and bench players will influence this, but this is still pretty useful for comparing the strength of each team’s draft.)
As expected, we’re right near the top of the league thanks to the expected awesomeness of Santana and Carpenter, plus a lot of sluggers and enough speed and bullpen to get by. The extremely low AVG obviously hurts us, and obviously we’re taking a huge risk on the production of our key youngsters, Chris Young and B.J. Upton. But I’m using the same overall set of projections for everyone, so if the projections equally balance risk and reward for all players, then our upside is pretty high…
What’s particularly encouraging about this is that we are projected for only 1261.2 IP, 10th out of the 15-team league. However, we are projected to lead the league in ERA and WHIP by fairly sizable margins, so we should be able to take some additional risks to rack up more W and K’s without risking our lead in those categories. And there’s the value of those two aces!