Regarding Dunn…

In response to Mitch’s post about Dunn, sorry folks, I’m not seeing Dunn as a second-round pick almost no matter what he does. First, here are his career highs:

.266, 46 HR, 102 RBI, 19 SB, 107 runs

IF he did that in one season, yes, he’d probably be a second-rounder. Problem is, there’s far too much recent evidence to suggest the will be pressed to reach any of those numbers this year, much less all of them. Check out his career trends on some key indicators:

YEAR G AB R HR RBI SB ATT% EYE OBP SLG PA/X AVG OPS P/PA GO/AO
2001 66 244 54 19 43 4 .088 .514 .371 .578 7.53 .262 .948 4.14 0.84
2002 158 535 84 26 71 19 .131 .753 .400 .454 12.07 .249 .854 4.36 0.93
2003 116 381 70 27 57 8 .079 .587 .354 .465 11.73 .215 .819 4.33 0.63
2004 161 568 105 46 102 6 .038 .554 .388 .569 8.51 .266 .956 4.25 0.76
2005 160 543 107 40 101 4 .033 .679 .387 .540 8.71 .247 .927 4.25 0.80
2006 160 561 99 40 92 7 .038 .577 .365 .490 10.67 .234 .855 4.20 0.67
CAREER 821 2832 519 198 466 48 .067 .619 .380 .513 9.76 .245 .892 4.26 0.77

* Not only is the AVG trend going in the wrong direction, he is indeed getting sufficient at-bats for it to hurt. A composite .249 over the past three seasons – in an average of 557 at-bats – is going to hurt your batting average. Among all MLB batting qualifiers in 2006, only Clint Barmes and Brad Ausmus had a lower batting average. How many HR’s would it take for you to want those guys on your team? Bottom line is Dunn is an AVG killer, period.

* Not only is the HR trend going in the wrong direction, so is his slugging percentage. And it’s not just that fewer singles are falling in: "PA/X" is the ratio of total plate appearances to extra-base hits… Dunn just isn’t hitting for as much power, period.

(Remember also that less power means fewer RBI’s, too. That and the fact that the Reds Opening Day lineup will probably have Dunn batting second, which surely won’t help the RBI count, either.)

* He’s stolen fewer bases in the last three years than he did in all of 2002, and that looks like a gigantic fluke. Check out the ATT% column, which is the percentage of times Dunn attempted a steal when on first via a single, walk or hit-by-pitch. No doubt that number is heavily dependent on a number of variables, but what’s telling is that it has been essentially flat for the last three years… Dunn just isn’t stealing as many bases any more, period.

(Bob Boone was the manager in 2002-03 when Dunn did his most running. Dave Miley and Jerry Narron have shut that down.)

* Dunn’s OBP is dropping, and it’s not just the lower average dragging it down. Check out EYE (BB/SO) and P/PA (pitches per plate appearance)… Dunn’s plate discipline spiked somewhat in 2005, but other than that it’s been flat or declining for the last four seasons. He’s not just getting fewer hits, he’s getting on base less often, period. And that means fewer runs, too.

I’m not alone in sharing my skepticism about Dunn this year, Here is his average projection for 2007 from the five sources I used this year:

.254, 40 HR, 97 RBI, 101 runs, 5 SB

If Mitch wants to point to the fact that Dunn is a 27-year-old in a contract year in a favorable hitter’s park, that’s fine by me. And Dunn has maintained his fly-ball swing, which should keep the HR total up. But Mitch is putting a lot of faith in very few selling points when there’s a lot more evidence pointing to this being a bad pick, period.

A fourth-rounder, maybe. A fifth-rounder, sure. But not in the second.

14 Comments

dunn is a big oaf
he slams homers in his sleep

but he’s no berkman

Berkman belonged
in the first round. That is

apples and oranges.

Sorry… this is correct.

Berkman belonged

in the first round. That’s apples

to Dunn’s oranges.

mitch knows metaphors
compares dunn to an orange

second round value?

In Draft and Trade, Dunn’s average draft position is 73rd overall.
For my D&T teams (13 of them), Dunn went in the 4th once (list draft), but was mainly picked in the 7th.

The latest he was picked in my D&T leagues was 11th round.

Cory,

Not to get picky, but when I asked you to defend your pick of Brian Roberts in NFBC, you gave me projections that were way out of line with the avg. projections posted on the PDF’s here on the blog a month ago. Obviously Mitch has his own inflated projections for Dunn. While I wouldn’t pick Dunn in the second round either, don’t you think it’s a little hypocritical to use your own projections to defend your pick but then lambaste Mitch for using his own predictions in valuing Dunn? The projections you posted for Dunn (.254, 40 homers, 97 RBI, etc) are right off those PDF’s posted a month ago, yet the projections you gave for Roberts were not. How is your valuation of Roberts any different than Mitch’s valuation of Dunn?

Fair question, but two big differences:

2. I justified my enthusiasm in Roberts with evidence. I haven’t seen any supporting evidence for Dunn earning a 2nd round pick, only evidence against.

2. I drafted Roberts much closer to a “fair value” slot than Dunn. So even if Roberts only plays to projection, I won’t have overpaid nearly as much for him as Mitch did if Dunn plays to projection.

–CS

Ryan Howard DOB:
November 19, 1979

Adam Dunn DOB:

November 9, 1979

Yes, Dunn owners and observers have grown tired of his predictably good, if frustrating, stats.

But he’s sewed his oats in the big leagues, under quite a bit of pressure for a man his age. Its quite possible for him to correct his bad habits; which i think are born from immaturity and pressure.

Maybe Mike Schmidt’s words will have some effect on Dunn. I think he still has time to correct his flaws and be an elite player.

p.s. I didn’t draft Dunn this year ;)

Dunn was my fifth keeper this year (we keep 5) and I struggled with the decision to keep him. It’s not that I was worried about his performance, I just kept hearing Cory’s famous “which guy is most likely to come back to you?” and “can you get an equal or better player at the same or lower price?”.

The price paid here is the opportunity cost of a second round pick. Mitch may be right that Dunn will perform at a level that justifies a second round pick, and since I have Dunn, I hope he’s right. However, Mitch probably could have got that performance in the 4th or 5th round and the had benefit of a market valued second round pick to boot.

How classic/ironic that Dunn would open the season this way? He must be reading the 411 Blog!

I picked up Adam Dunn too, but in the 10th round of a 10 team mixed. I think Dunn definitely has to potential to produce like a 2nd round pick, but I think I agree with Cory that he’s not a good choice for a 2nd pick, because you can secure your 2nd, 3rd or 4th picks (since I obviously doubt that it’s going to be a race to get Dunn in the 2nd round) and then pick up Dunn as a steal later on.

I used my wheel pick when I took Dunn … i picked Dunn #79 overall then followed up with Helton #82 as my IF. I thought that Helton could help me smooth out Dunn’s AVG. Considering where I took Dunn, I thought he was a good value. However, I would never have taken him in the 2nd round, unless it was a 40-team league.

looks like adam dunn really is trying to defy the doubters. not only does he have 3 hrs and 6 rbis, but a 2 SB and .353? i know he’s only played in like 5 games but it’s still funny.

More like 2.5 homers. He got an assist from Nady on the third. As Dunn said “I owe him (Nady) a couple of beers.”

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