Chasing saves is NOT fun!

The old saying is, "it’s not what you know but who you know"… but what happens when you have both the what AND the who, and THIS happens anyway?

Cincinnati IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Hermanson 0.1 5 4 4 1 0 0 7.36

See, I had been assured by a VERY solid source that Hermanson would be the Reds closer to start the season "unless he had a nervous breakdown." I don’t know if this was nerves, but double-double-double-single-walk-ground out-single certainly does qualify as a meltdown. I guess we’ll find out on Sunday if this was as much of a lock as my source thought.

Here’s how the bullpen shakes out through and including Saturday’s games:

Bullpen W L ERA G GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO
Bray 0 0 0.00 3 1 0 3.0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Coffey 1 0 0.84 11 2 0 10.2 10 2 1 0 3 11
Guardado 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Hermanson 0 0 7.36 8 2 0 7.1 12 8 6 1 1 5
Stanton 0 0 5.14 7 0 0 7.0 9 5 4 0 1 2
Weathers 0 0 2.25 8 0 0 8.0 6 2 2 2 2 4

Bray and Guardado are opening the season on the DL, and Stanton will probably be used in a middle/setup role since he’s the only known commodity among the remaining lefties. That leaves Hermanson to battle with last year’s primary closers, Weathers (first half) and Coffey (second half), both of whom threw better all spring than Hermanson did.

In fact, if spring stats really DO matter, then Coffey is the obvious choice. But if the scarlet "C" Hermanson carries from 2005 is still worth anything, he might just get the job anyway. And don’t forget this potentially portentious quote from Reds’ GM Wayne Krivsky:

"I don’€™t think spring training statistics tell you much about anything."

(UPDATED APRIL 1, 1:20 p.m. ET — If you believe this, it sounds like Wayne Krivsky does indeed believe in the value of spring stats!)

20 Comments

Hey Corey, Hermanson has been released. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AkhCRdzV73x1y6rhWHDwDNyFCLcF?slug=ap-redsmoves&prov=ap&type=lgns

BTW Could you post the Dusty Baker and Ted Lilly show links on here for us to enjoy?

Yep, that’s what I was referring to with the “update” I posted a couple of hours ago… heres’ the story:

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070401&content_id=1873669&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

And now we get the dreaded committee! Yuck!

–CS

Sorry, here’s the link broken into two pieces, cut’n’paste it into your browser address bar to get the complete link:

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070401

&content_id=1873669&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

–CS

I saw the “outing” at Dayton, and it was terrible. He lacked velocity and seemed very hittable.

You probably did not want those numbers from him for a handful of saves, he looked that bad.

I drafted Hermanson in the 25th round (final round) of my draft on your word that he would be closing. I’m not too upset though. It was my last pick and I had pieced together a bullpen earlier. Hermanson was my 4th reliever. I can only start 3. I’ll drop him and haven’t lost anything. Just hope you didn’t bid too high in NFBC or could pull back the bid. Anyway, Cory, what are your feelings on Billy Butler and Josh Fields this year? I know they aren’t closers.

Mike

Up until 3-4 days ago it looked like Hermanson would win the job. Hey, we get the most and best information we can and make the best possible informed decisions. Sometimes they don’t work out… at least we are saved from having Dustin Hermanson put a 5.73 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on us in exchange for eight saves!

Anyway, Butler is on the short list of the best bats who will start the season in the minors this year AND have a chance to play in the Majors. One injury to Mike Sweeney (when, not if) and we should see Butler… and from that point on he might be up for good.

Fields is not on the same level and is blocked by a better overall player in Crede. Fields has played some LF but I don’t think he really has a future there. He’s less likely to play in the Majors this year…

–CS

Great e-mail on this topic over the weekend from Iggy in Calabasas:

“3/30/2007 Cory Schwartz-“I’ve been doing my homework Hermanson is a done deal. I’m very Confident. Trust me.”

4/1/2007 – Dustin Hermanson released?

Thanks for your great insight to the Cincinatti closer situation. Next time if your just shooting in the dark please say so and don’t mislead your listeners.

Your confident statement and cocky demeanor at the end of Fridays show sure reeked of inside info. I’ve been a dedicated listener but this terrible info just makes pray that your private areas will be infested with millions of fleas.

Seems like MLB will give anyone a Show these days. Where do I apply?

Thanks,

Hellen Keller”

* * *

For a dedicated listener Iggy is coming across pretty harsh on this, but, excessive sarcasm aside, Iggy’s right that I was flat wrong about this one. Here’s how I replied to him via e-mail:

“I did have insider info. on this situation otherwise I wouldn’t have made the bold pronouncement on it that I did, think I like being wrong? I was told that Hermanson would be the closer “unless he has a nervous breakdown between now and Sunday” — that’s a direct quote — but sure enough Hermanson did have a meltdown over the weekend so he got cut. I’ll stand by what I said at the time because, at the time, it was based on the best available information I could get my hands on. I wouldn’t do it any differently next time.”

Like I said folks, right or wrong, I’ll show my work and we’ll try to make the most informed decisions we can.

–CS

I have to agree with this listener Cory, so sorry. I listened to you say that Prince Albert was a lock as the #1 pick and “deservedly so”. So, I trusted you and took him. Thanks a lot Cory, Albert went hitless last night!
I knew that I should have taken Paul LoDuca with the first overall pick, but, like all good and loyal listeners, I “drank the Kool-Aid” that you were pouring.

Can you ever be trusted again?

Sincerely,

Mark in NY

(formerly one of the flock)

Cory,
Thanks for taking your Medicine like a man. Most guys would have ran for the hills the minute Hermanson got released.

All things fair Dustin was a nightmare this weekend.

Great Show, I follow it daily.

P.S.Have you guys ever seen Mike Siano & A.J. Pierzynski in the same room?

Hermanson Haiku

Hermanson was cut?

Weathers? Coffey? Grab them both?

Chasing saves ain’t fun!

-Eric in Cincy

Just wanted to let you know that a lot of Cincy fans have been Cincy fans have been pushing for Jared Burton, who had a great spring, to get a chance as the closer role since there is no place for him in the rotation.

-Matt @ Cincy

As bad as this looks, I heard the “fantasy expert” on Fox this morning recommend Hermanson as a closer *after* I read the news that he had been released. Maybe that segment had been taped earlier.

I chase saves no more
No Hermanson, no Dotel

I’ll just draft two studs

Mike

Thirty-six years old
Strikes out D-Rays one-two-three

Just draft Rivera

Wagner and Ryan
They’re two lefty flame throwers

Rack up saves and K’s

A waiver pick used
Oh, Hermanson is released?

And I HAD Weathers.

that haiku really applies to a guy in my league – he cut Weathers and used his waiver priority on Hermanson. ouch.

Hey Cory.

Big fan of the show and dedicated podcast listener. I’m on your side on the Hermanson issue. Right or wrong you do show your work.

But more importantly, what fantasy owner in their right mind is even considering Hermanson as a closer? If these listeners are bent about Hermanson, they need to move back to Fantasy 100 – Remedial Drafting class to learn that closer-by-committee is a YPNM issue. Write that down and take my lead and draft Ryan, Lidge and Street.

Boston Fan Tim from Baltimore

PS – when is the ‘Girls of the Fantasy 411′ calendar going to be available?

Isn’t Lidge approaching YPNM status?

Great point thrilljam. That’s why I dropped him and grabbed the ‘flavor of the week’ in Dempster. I’m much happier with my closers on my second team of Nathan and Valverde with Broxton backing up in a 15-team mixed with 9 pitchers and only two bench spots. Excellent draft. Excellent draft.

Jorge Juilo
Couldn’t stick as the closer

Was he worth Petit?

Prior and Wood, uggh

A plague on both your houses

Fantasy vomit

Hope to never have to

Hear their names again this season

Cubs in ’08, Ha!!

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