May 2007

Sell high on Suppan, Marquis

I’m stumped
here.  I’ve been offered a trade that I am leaning towards.  Wanted some
input.

Yahoo 8 team head
to head (R, HR, RBI, SB, OBPS / W, S, K, ERA, WHIP).  I am sitting in 7th spot
and need to make something happen.  Although still early in the season, I am 16
games back.

My
team-

Offense

Pierzynski,
AJ

Pujols,
Albert

Upton,
BJ

Cabrera,
Miguel

Ramirez,
Hanley

Hunter,
Torii

Francoeur,
Jeff

Victorino,
Shane

Crawford, Carl
Util

Cust, J
Bench

Wells, V
Bench

Kinsler, I
Bench

Mauer,
J-DL

Pitching-

Carlos
Zambrano

Suppan,
Jeff

Marquis,
Jason

Snell,
Ian

Looper,
Braden

Rivera,
Mariano

Wickman,
Bob

Soriano,
Rafael

Fuentes,
Brian

Trade-

I give up Carl
Crawford, Jeff Suppan, and Jason Marquis

I get Adrian
Gonzalez, Matt Cain, and JJ Putz

What do you
think?

Todd
Bradbury

 

Todd,

 

The
first thing I’d do is get Vernon Wells back into your active roster.  Also, try
to trade one of your second basemen.  Both Kinsler and Upton have a ton of
value, and by continually benching one of them, you’re wasting a great
opportunity.  But before you work on a new trade, accept this one!  I never
thought I’d ever be saying this, but Crawford is fairly expendable here
considering the overwhelming bench depth of this team.  Add Adrian Gonzalez to
the mix, and you’ll still have a tough time deciding who to start each day. 
Another reason why I like this deal is that between Hanley, Hunter, Victorino,
and Upton/Kinsler, the stolen base category should be covered even after the
departure of Crawford.

 

While
the Crawford to Adrian Gonzalez exchange of hitters can best be described as a
small to medium-sized loss, getting Cain and Putz for overachievers Suppan and
Marquis is nothing short of a huge win.  Since 2004, Marquis sports an ugly 6.42
ERA in the month of June, making now as good a time as any to unload him. 
Lastly, let’s not overlook the acquisition of Putz, who despite some injury
concerns heading into the season has been flat out dominant (only 3 ER over 21
2/3 IP).  J.J. should go a long way towards fortifying a bullpen that was
previously on the weak side considering the league is an 8
teamer.

 

– Zach
Steinhorn, MLB.com       

 

 

Dishing the Maine course

6×6 Roto w/OBP & L

Two questions for you:

1. Would you trade Roger Clemens for John Maine

I like the fact that Maine pitches in the NL, but I am worried about his last few starts.

2. Who do you like best out of these three, Ryan Braun (MIL), Encarnacion, or Iwamura?

I could use some help at CI and I am looking at these three options.

Keep up the great work.

Thank you for your input.

Dale A. Sensenig

Dale,

You’ve kept Clemens for this long. Now once he’s finally back, you’re going to trade him? I wouldn’t. After starting off the season on fire, Maine has slowed down considerably (4.50 ERA in five May starts). And even though he does pitch in the NL for a very good team, his walk rate (34 BB in 61 1/3 IP) suggests a further ERA spike is in order. Even though I don’t expect Clemens to be dominant in the AL East, I’ll take the 10 wins to go along with an ERA around 4 over Maine, who has undoubtedly already enjoyed the best part of his season.

As for the second question, I’d rank the three in this order…Braun, Encarnacion, Iwamura. Braun tore up the minors this year, hitting .342 with 10 homers and 22 RBI in 117 AB’s. As long as he doesn’t embarrass himself defensively, Braun should hold onto the third base job in Milwaukee, and has the highest ceiling of the bunch. Encarnacion’s starting gig is also fairly secure with Ryan Freel now headed for the DL, and I still wouldn’t forget about this guy. That being said, we’ve already seen Encarnacion struggle at the major league level, while Braun enters with a clean slate and tons of potential. Iwamura made his return from the DL on Monday, and has so far been a pleasant surprise. I’m not buying in just yet. Give pitchers some time and watch that .356 average start to fall. Also, Iwamura has shown virtually no power, which gives him limited value as a corner infielder.

– Zach Steinhorn, MLB.com

To Trade or Not to Trade?

Morning boys, long time podcast listener, wish i could watch live but have a stupid real world career that interferes with my fantasy baseball career :) Quick offer here, wanted to see what you thought. It was offered to me today.

I would be trading Peralta, Valverde, and Markakis FOR Tejada, Broxton and Sexson

I am fairly weak in saves and valverde is my best guy. (also have Rafael Soriano) i have a logjam at 1B with Fielder and Laroche so i don’t need Sexson although i think the best part of his season is yet to come. What about removing Sexson and substituting in Kinsler in a counter offer. (i have Cano and Kendrick at 2B) Could turn around and deal Sexson or Laroche too…..do i need to do any of this?

(It is a 6×6, h2h, 25 man roster keeper league, keep 12 players) I am 2nd in my division, 6th in the league overall.

Thanks,

Rokhed

Calgary, Alberta

Rokhed,

Please don’t mind me asking, but what’s the purpose of these trades? If you are weak in saves, why are you trading Valverde? I understand he has some risk attached based on his midseason meltdown last year, but he’s been awfully good in 2007 (17 saves, 2.66 ERA) and has a strong hold on the Arizona closer job. Even though Broxton is the “closer of the future”, the way Saito is pitching, Broxton may very well remain a setup guy for the rest of the season. The first trade would only make your saves situation worse. If you really want Tejada and/or Sexson, why not start by offering Peralta and Markakis for Tejada and Sexson? If that doesn’t work, try Peralta, Markakis, and LaRoche for Tejada, Sexson, and a lesser outfielder. The key to working a trade is to improve your team by dealing from areas of strength. Without clearly identifying those areas, trading is pointless.

– Zach Steinhorn, MLB.com

Selling low on Zambrano

Big trade Question, please answer this for me, pleeeeeeeeeeeease!!

I give up: Michael Young/Carlos Zambrano/ Victorino

I get: Hanley/Gorzelanny /Sexson (I think Sexson has some major upside coming)

Also I have plenty of speed already (Sizemore and Crawford)

Dear Anonymous Person,

Make the trade. I usually try to avoid selling low on players with the track record of Young, but you’re getting Hanley in return, which is a clear upgrade at SS, especially in steals. Because you’re gaining a good 30 SB’s from here on out by going from Young to Hanley, you can easily afford the loss of Victorino, who does little else but steal bases. Carlos Zambrano is fresh off yet another pounding (7 ER in 6 2/3 IP vs the White Sox), and you all know my feelings about this guy, who I’m convinced is hiding an injury. Sexson has never been known for a high average, but he’s also not known for a .172 average. Even if he finishes the year at .250, that’s 78 points Sexson’s due to make up. I agree with your hunch that Richie will soon heat up. Gorzelanny has been on fire in May (2-1, 1.67 ERA), and while he’s no Zambrano, he’s a useful starter. But it’s the acquisition of Hanley and Sexson that makes this deal a win!

– Zach Steinhorn, MLB.com

Nathan’s one of a kind

Hello,

12 team, 5×5, non-keeper. I have Derrek Lee. I would trade Lee for Joe Nathan. I am low in saves. What do you think?

Troy

Troy,

Assuming you have other quality options at first base to take over for Lee, I would do this deal for one simple reason: Joe Nathan is arguably the best closer in baseball. Let’s not downplay the loss of Lee here, but let’s also remember that this isn’t the same Derrek Lee we saw hit .335 with 46 homers back in 2005. Since then, it’s been one injury after another for the Cubs’ first baseman. A sore neck limited Lee to pinch-hitting duties over the weekend, but he’s slated to return to the lineup on Tuesday. Still, expecting more than 30 home runs and 100 RBI for the season is probably unrealistic, as Derrek’s ability to stay on the field these days is a legitimate concern. While replacing Lee won’t be easy, finding a closer of Nathan’s caliber is even harder.

- Zach Steinhorn

Ards

From yesterday’s box scores:

Gabbard: 5 IP, ER, 7
Ks
Bedard: 7 IP, ER, 12
Ks
Clippard: 6 IP, ER, 6
Ks
Bard: 1-for-3, 2B, RBI, 2
BB

It was a great day for the Ards but
an awful day for the Aard, as David Aardsma got rocked for four earned runs in
an inning of relief.

This is what happens when you look at
box scores too much.

– Dean Chiungos

Making power moves

Two trade questions….just want your expert opinions. Both standard vanilla 12 team head 2 head leagues. Trade 1) I give up Posada, Dunn, and Penny for Martin, Ichiro and Arroyo. Trade 2) I give up JJ Hardy and Francoeur for Pujols and Marcus Giles. I would bring Furcal off my bench to my starting lineup and play Chris Young in Francoeur’s place.
Zane in Calgary

Zane,

Make both of these trades now! In the first trade, the change at catcher from Posada to Martin is a downgrade, but only a slight one. Posada is off to a great start, but he’s a career .273 hitter, which means that his current average of .371 is due to take a huge hit. In other words, you would definitely be picking the right time to trade Jorge. Martin doesn’t quite have Posada’s power, but he’ll hit for a good average and do something 99 percent of catchers don’t…steal bases (he already has 7 SB’s). Getting rid of Penny is also a wise move. This guy always amazes in the early months only to implode in August and September. The All-Star Game starter for the NL last year, Penny went on to post a 6.25 ERA in 15 starts after the Midsummer Classic. I view Arroyo as a much more reliable pitching option. When considering the outfielders, think about where Ichiro and Dunn were taken in most drafts. Ichiro was a late second-early third rounder while Dunn usually lasted until rounds 6-8. By dealing Dunn, you’ll miss out on 30 or so homers from here on out, so make sure you have other power options. But as long as you’re not struggling in home runs, this trade is a nice one.

Trade 2 is a no-brainer, not only because you get Pujols at a cheap price, but because you have so much bench depth. Furcal can easily have a more productive June through September than Hardy, and even though I’d rather have Francoeur than Young, the difference is not that huge. Are Pujols and Giles worth the small gap between Francoeur and Young? Absolutely.

– Zach Steinhorn, MLB.com

Getting Manny to be Manny

Hey guys, is this a fair trade for a 12 team, 5×5 roto, keeper: I’d give away JJ Hardy and Bedard for Manny. Vic in Dominican Republic

Vic,

I have no problem with this deal’s fairness. We all know what Manny can do when he gets going, so trying to trade for him while his stock is relatively low is a good idea. And you’re certainly giving up enough. But you may even be giving up a bit too much. Hardy will eventually cool down significantly from his 54 home run, 161 RBI pace, but he’s still a safe bet for around 25 homers to go along with a solid average, all this at a middle infield position. While Bedard’s 4.67 ERA isn’t that impressive, his 63 K’s in 54 innings and 1.31 WHIP show that he’s been the victim of some bad luck. I expect him to go through a dominant stretch soon. All in all, this is a fairly balanced trade, especially in a keeper league, as the guys you’re giving up have tons of future upside. Try substituting a slightly lesser pitcher for Bedard, and I would like this deal more.

– Zach Steinhorn, MLB.com

Time ticking for Pujols

Hey guys,
I am in a 12-team non-keeper mixed league and the following trade has been offered to me: I would get K-Rod and Chipper for Pujols and would drop Accardo. I am currently starting Lowell at 3rd. What do you think about this trade?

Noam
New York, NY

Noam,

This trade is certainly a fair one, and accepting it wouldn’t be a bad decision, especially if you are weak at closer. But here’s why I don’t like it. Whenever you’re giving up the best player in the deal, who in this case happens to be the consensus top overall pick, you have to be careful. By agreeing to this trade, you’re essentially dealing away Pujols and Accardo for Chipper and K Rod. Is the upgrade from Accardo to K Rod greater than the downgrade from Pujols to Chipper? I don’t think so. While Chipper enjoyed perhaps the hottest April of his career, he’s struggled of late (7 for his last 28, 0 HR, 3 RBI). And that’s not to mention the significant injury risk that comes with owning Jones. Even though Accardo lacks experience in the closer role, he’s a former top prospect and has performed well since taking over for Frasor. Barring a complete collapse, Accardo should hold onto the job for the rest of the season. K Rod is undoubtedly a significant improvement, but as long as you’re not desperate for saves, I’d take my chances with Pujols. Your patience will be rewarded!

– Zach Steinhorn, MLB.com

What’s wrong with Zambrano?

7×7, head to head, keeper league (extra pitching categories are IP & K/9).
I GIVE: Kazmir (8th Round)

I GET: Zambrano (3rd Round)

The rounds listed are where they can be kept for the next three seasons. But, I’m more worried about winning this year. Should I make this deal?

Thanks,
Brian in Cincinnati

Brian,

Carlos Zambrano came into this season demanding a new contract and guaranteeing a Cy Young. Midway through May, Big Z has an ERA near 6 and a ******** 1.60 WHIP. But even more perplexing is his 10 home runs allowed in only eight starts. This after serving up just 20 homers in 33 starts last year. Though I do see Zambrano rebounding to a degree, I am very concerned about a possible injury. From 2004-2006, Zambrano averaged 110 pitches per start, a very high number considering how carefully pitchers are monitored these days. Kazmir also comes with an injury risk, but has been pitching well this year. Even if this were not a keeper league, I might sway towards Kazmir considering Zambrano’s history of being overworked. Add the keeper values, and I would definitely rather have Kazmir. The difference between Kazmir and Zambrano is less than the difference between a third and an eighth rounder, and you could make a convincing argument that Kazmir will have the better 2007.

– Zach Steinhorn, MLB.com

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