What’s wrong with Zambrano?

7×7, head to head, keeper league (extra pitching categories are IP & K/9).
I GIVE: Kazmir (8th Round)

I GET: Zambrano (3rd Round)

The rounds listed are where they can be kept for the next three seasons. But, I’m more worried about winning this year. Should I make this deal?

Thanks,
Brian in Cincinnati

Brian,

Carlos Zambrano came into this season demanding a new contract and guaranteeing a Cy Young. Midway through May, Big Z has an ERA near 6 and a ******** 1.60 WHIP. But even more perplexing is his 10 home runs allowed in only eight starts. This after serving up just 20 homers in 33 starts last year. Though I do see Zambrano rebounding to a degree, I am very concerned about a possible injury. From 2004-2006, Zambrano averaged 110 pitches per start, a very high number considering how carefully pitchers are monitored these days. Kazmir also comes with an injury risk, but has been pitching well this year. Even if this were not a keeper league, I might sway towards Kazmir considering Zambrano’s history of being overworked. Add the keeper values, and I would definitely rather have Kazmir. The difference between Kazmir and Zambrano is less than the difference between a third and an eighth rounder, and you could make a convincing argument that Kazmir will have the better 2007.

– Zach Steinhorn, MLB.com