Distinguishing the Wolves from the Bushes

Hey guys, I really want to pick up Homer, but not sure who to drop to make room.  I’ve got 4 guys that I’m still not convinced about.  Dave Bush, Tom Glavine, Randy Wolf and Orlando Hernandez.  Who should get cut?

Thanks
Chris in Canada

Chris,

All of the names you mention with the exception of Bush have pitched really well this year (Glavine, Hernandez, and Wolf each have a sub 3.75 ERA).  So you might (or might not) be surprised to hear my advice…cut El Duque.  Even though Bush has been incredibly inconsistent, a strikeout to walk rate that’s better than 4 to 1 simply doesn’t belong on the waiver wire.  Bush’s main problem throughout his career has been a tendency to give up too many home runs, but he’s roughly on pace to match last season’s HR allowed number of 26 while having an ERA (5.64) over a full run higher.  Expect that ERA to fall considerably.  If anything, Bush should be traded FOR in leagues while his value is at a low.

Wolf, on the other hand, is a good sell high option.  In his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, you’ve got to be concerned about Wolf potentially hitting an innings wall at some point during the second half.  But I’d still keep him while he’s on a roll.  Randy’s 74 strikeouts rank fourth in the NL, and a fly ball pitcher in Dodger Stadium is always a nice fit.

As for the two Mets pitchers, the difference between them can be found in these numbers…73 1/3 and 45.  That’s the number of innings Glavine has pitched compared to El Duque’s innings total.  And that’s where Glavine holds the considerable edge.  Hernandez is always injured, while Glavine is a model of durability.  While Bailey comes to the majors with loads of potential, he’s still unproven at this level, which makes holding onto a guy like Glavine all the more important.  With Glavine, you know what you’re going to get.

Zach Steinhorn, MLB.com

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