Another Expert Mock Draft

On Sunday night (Jan 27), Siano participated in a standard 12 team mock draft with several other representatives from the fantasy baseball podcast community.  Here are the team-by-team breakdowns.   Here are the complete draft results  Let us know what you think.

Zach

13 Comments

That draft wasn’t Siano. Must have been a Bizarro-Siano because Siano wouldn’t draft Ted Lilly… would he????!??

is there anyway we could do a 14 team mock draft? Our league usually do a 1b, 2b, 3b, sS, mi, ci, (4) of, (2) util type of format. I see tons of 12 team type info but NEVER a 14…. thanks guys! great site and info as usual!

If you need someone to fill in that 13 or 14th team, i would love to!

I think that he took Ted Lilly just to see CS’s reaction.

On a serious note, Peavy went before Johan? I’ve owned both of these guys in their best and worst years and while the upside is the comparable, Peavy’s bad year (2006) is a whole lot worse than Johan’s down year (2007).

Hi Cory –

I have been catching up on the podcasts lately, and heard you guys talking about needing to adjust strategies and draft your first pitcher a little earlier than in years past.

You referenced a run in Siano’s mock draft where guys like Snell, Burnett, Sheets, Liriano all came flying off of the boardand noted that you wouldn’t really be comfortable with them being your “pitch or ditch ace”.

Do you have a list of 3-5 guys that you would ideally consider the cutoff for your #1 starter this year?

Thanks!

the toddmon

Re: #4

How about guys like John Smoltz, Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Roy Halladay? Maybe even Aaron Harang? Is this the kind of cutoff you’re looking for?

To me, all these guys have an ace-type pedigree but come with just enough question marks (age, declining K rate, home ballpark) to slip them down a couple of notches. I would hope to land these players in the 5th to 8th rounds of the draft, depending on the player involved.

In effect, this is what I think of when I think of a low-end ace. I want someone before the tenth round who has a proven track record and comes at a bit of a discount relative to aces in their prime (like Lackey, Santana, Sabathia, Beckett, etc.)

Opting for a “low end ace” with a track record will allow me pursue a few high risk/high reward types with a few more question marks. Maybe guys like Hamels (injury possibilities), King Felix and Matt Cain (inconsistency) and Scott Kazmir (high walk rate, poor defense). Interestingly enough, these pitchers may go ahead of the “low aces” in the draft. So interpret that how you will. But overall I think a low end ace would be a guy with a proven track record but with a few minor non-injury related concerns about his 2008 potential.

Aggressive picks?
Phillips in the 2nd

Tulo in the 4th

Markakis in the 4th

Pence in the 5th

Sleeper value?

McCann in the 7th

Zimmermann in the 8th

Jenks in the 8th!

Mariano in the 9th!!

Buchholz in the 12th

Kent in the 13th (seems way undervalued)

B.J. Ryan in the 14th

Encarnacion in the 15th

Soto in the 17th!

Cory,

Are we getting another prediction sheet like last year that averaged the predictions from 5 reputable sites? That was gold, Jerry. Gold!

I am looking for a national league only online draft league for this season after 10 years in such a league that just went belly up. Experienced fantasy player not looking forward to a season of the DTs if I can’t find a solid national league fantasy option. Can anyone help me? I grow increasingly desperate.

Hey Cory , Kenny from ohio here. Do you see Adam Miller make the indians big league roster sometime either this year or in 2009? Which indians players besides Sizemore, Sabathia, Carmona, Martinez and Hafner are going to be good in picking up in a keeper league

I know age 27 is supposed to be the golden age for baseball players.

But what about age 23?

Riskier, but there’s lots of upside. Looking at 2006, 2007 and 2008. Sorted by ZIPS forecasts before the season started:

Rank – Forecast – Actual

2006

1. M Cabrera .958 – .998

2. D Wright .913 – .912

3. G Sizemore .825 – .907

4. J Mauer .804 – .936

5. J Huber .803 – .573

6. R Weeks .784 – .766

7. C Quentin .778 – .872

8. E Encarnacion .776 – .760

9. R Cano .755 – .890

10. H Pence .751 – N/A

2007

1. B McCann .924 – .772

2. P Fielder .871 – 1.013

3. C Young .861 – .763

4. A Gordon .834 – .725

5. A Lind .816 – .678

6. N Markakis .808 – .848

7. A LaRoche .792 – .677

8. J Loney .785 – .919

9. J Hermida .783 – .870

10. E Dukes .779 – .709

11. H Ramirez .777 – .948

12. H Kendrick .775 – .796

13. J Francoeur .772 – .782

14. R Braun .761 – 1.004

15. M Reynolds .760 – .843

2008

1. R Zimmerman .849

2. M Kemp .831

3. L Milledge .822

4. T Buck .818

5. B Upton .815

6. T Tulowitzki .800

7. I Stewart .780

8. M Cabrera .771

9. D Dorn .754

10. F Pie .750

11. W Balentien .749

12. Pitts .748

Not everyone performs, but we see a lot of quantum leaps, particularly from players who had the upside, but didn’t have enough MLB pedigree to push them into the top 5-7 rounds of the draft at the time. Yeah, we all knew about Miguel Cabrera and David Wright in 2006. But look at some of the names in 2007. Did we think Fielder was going to explode like that? Markakis, Hermida, Hanley, Braun? Lots of stuff to like.

Milledge, Buck, Pitts…all could be undervalued in a similar fashion this year. Perhaps…

Again, the main reason for posting the age 23 versus age 27 is because the age 27 season is becoming pretty common knowledge. With little competitive advantage left to exploiting this (since it really cannot be exploited so well as it used to), the hope in showing the lists above is that you can cherry pick a few names from each list in hopes of late round, high upside kind of potential.

Gahh, I should mention, those are forecasts/actuals for OPS.

Whoops!!

Anyway, love the show guys. Keep the good work coming.

Hey all, been a while since I posted, but here are a few replies…

* The composite projections are coming very soon, I just posted about that tonight;

* For the Indians, I’m becoming very bullish on Franklin Gutierrez as a good gamble as a late-round OF. He should hit for a decent average with 20-HR power and can steal some bags. The best-case scenario is a season not unlike Corey Hart from last year, although probably with more like 10-15 steals, but otherwise very similar;

* Re. bargain starters, the guys I’m liking in the middle rounds are McGowan, Billingsley, Rich **** and Snell. The first two might be a little two raw to be “bargain aces”, but I think they have massive upside… the Blue Jays’ improved defense this year could make McGowan in particular a breakout pitcher.

Happy pitchers and catchers day!

–Cory

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