MDC.com experts mock draft

Thanks to the fine folks at www.mockdraftcentral.com for inviting me to participate in their pre-season expert draft #3. While this site is not affiliated with MLB.com in any way, I must give a shout out to the awesome value this site provides as a draft prep tool. Yes, every draft is different, but being able to test out different approaches and strategies and draft slots is absolutely invaluable to thorough draft-day preparation. You have to be prepared to deal with a "living" draft, that evolves and changes with every pick, and doing reps on MDC.com helps create a comfort level with every pick.

Anyway, the contestants and draft order were as follows:

  1. Joe Badalucco (SportsBuff)
  2. Darryl Houston Smith (Fantasy Baseball Mafia)
  3. Brendan Roberts (ESPN)
  4. David Martorano (RotoWire)
  5. Scott Swanay (Fantasy Baseball Sherpa)
  6. Knox Bardeen (Crooked Pitch)
  7. Ryan Bowyer (RotoTimes)
  8. Christian Peterson (LeagueSafe)
  9. T. Heaney & R. Garcia (KFFL)
  10. Joe
    Ribando (Fantistics)
  11. Cory
    Schwartz (MLB.com)
  12. Todd
    Farino (Fantasy Baseball Search)

* Here are the pick-by-pick results:

http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/draft.jsp?id=61956&view=all

* Here is a transcipt of the live chat during the draft:

http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/2008_fantasy_baseball_expert_draft_transcript_3.jsp

* And finally, to the meat of the story… the MDC projected results:

http://www2.mockdraftcentral.com/drafts/61956/projections

Now here’s the interesting part… check out how those projections compare to the projected standings using my own customized projections (based on the "composite projections" spreadsheet posted earlier this month)… Download mock_draft_results_022508.xls

(Note that I drafted it as I would for a "real" draft for the most part… only four starters, all with good strikeout rates, and as many saves as I could muster. More speed and a little less power than usual, but no obvious holes on offense as long as the kids hit.)

As noted after last night’s draft, I don’t think I am drafting to the projections, but it’s nice to see when my numbers match up so closely with the "blind" numbers of the MDC projections! Either way, be confident friends, the 411 is representing out there in the fantasy world…

–Cory

16 Comments

Cory,

Great Job Overall!

Thought The C Young pick in the 5th was a little shaky, especially when the likes of Bay, Swisher, Hawpe, and C. Hart were available…what were you thinking there?

Cory,

Thank you for posting these draft results and projections. My only problem with the MDC projections is the give a false sense of draft results, and it’s nice to see your system and how it compares to them. It’s also nice to know that some of the strategies I’m planning on look similar to your results but may not project out on top in MDC. I think a solid core with flexibility is much more valuable then hitting stat plateaus in the draft room.

Cory,
Don’t want to kill you on this, but I would guess you throw a lot of Shandler’s insight into your projections you use for drafting, as do I. The problem is MDC uses Shandler’s projections for the standings projections. I always end up in 1st in all my mock drafts because of it… but I don’t think it’s because I blew everyone elses draft away. (Or maybe I did)

Hey Corymon!

Along the same lines as bostonleon, I noticed in your past couple of mock drafts you have selected Chris B Young in the 5th round.

In one, you then went on to select Corey Hart in the 6th. I have to decide between Chris Young and Corey Hart as my final keeper. What puts Chris Young ahead of Hart in your mind? To me, Hart is just a safer pick, with not much difference in upside compared to CBY. Especially in the AVG cagegory, which I like to load up on early if I can. Then again, I’m a Milwaukee homer, so I want to make sure I’m objectively looking at things.

My other keepers are Pujols, M. Cabrera, and B. Phillips if that makes any difference in your thinking.

Lovin the podcasts/video replays of the show! Can’t wait until the next chat on St. Patty’s Day.

the toddmon

To expand a little, here are the composite projections for both:

Hart, Corey .286 84 24 80 19

Young, Chris .256 85 29 78 24

Does 5 more HR/SB really make up for a 30 point deficit in AVG?

One thing I noticed from the mock was the spread of closers at the top and the run coming much later. The top closers were spread out much more than I see in some other mocks, and the run took place from rounds 10 to 12. Maybe it’s because some of the top closers took some steps back, Ryan, Hoffman, Rivera (not too much of a step except for saves), Wagner, Nathan (trade questions) and not trusting some of the up and comers like Valverde.

Good points here, thanks everyone. The projections I am using do include Shandler’s but also from six other sources, and I’ve further tweaked those for my own personal use, so I don’t think what I’m using is any more influenced by the Shandler projections than by any other source. I think the mock draft I did with Siano the other night had me in 4th or 5th on MDC, and first in my spreadsheet (by a wide margin), so the two are not always in agreement.

I liked Young over those other guys you mentioned because I wanted to load up on speed early so I was willing to trade a little in RBI’s in exchange for the additonal 20 SB’s.

As for Young vs. Hart specifically, I’m going mostly by value with my picks, at much as possible, and the projections I am using do place Young about a round ahead of Hart. Remember that all stats are not created equal; one steal does not equal one homer in terms of standing points, and I guess the category weightings I’m using think the five steals are indeed worth more than the 30 points in AVG.

(In addition, Young should have a clear edge in runs and a slight edge HR, although Hart should have more RBI.)

From a subjective standpoint, I fully expect Young to go ahead of Hart in most drafts because he is thought of as elite prospect, whereas Hart doesn’t have that kind of name-brand recognition.

–CS

Also… I agree that closers **seem** to be going a little slower this year. Perhaps that’s due to the fact that the end-game guys (Ryan, Gagne, Howry/Marmol, Lyon, Sherrill, etc.) don’t seem nearly as putrid as some of the “30th closer” choices in the past? I mean, would you rather have any of those guys or Jose Mesa? Or have to guess who was the Rays’ closer at the start of last season?

–CS

Thanks for the input Cory. I think in this draft your pitching staff is the type that could definitely win a league. Shields, McGowan, and Billingsley are 3 guys I’ve had my eye on.

Shields and McGowan kept up their control and strikeout rates throughout the season into September. With McGowan I was a bit surprised by this given his HUGE innings jump, he still struck out 9/IP in September. A pretty good sign that makes me confident he has the durability to remain healthy through the year.

Billingsley also kept up his K rates, but his command was very inconsistent and this concerns me slightly. I am thinking he may be a bit of an injury risk and it’s surprising to see him go 2 rounds ahead of McGowan.

Overall though I think all 3 are prime targets to have big years again and could be the makings of a very underrated pitching staff.

Hey Corey,

1. Why Capps over J. Soria?

Deciding between these 2 is a question I’ve come across during my Mocks(typ. rd 13 or 14). Is Rd. 12 too early for Soria? Rd. 15 seems great value for him.

2. In the chat, I noticed an early discussion regarding Wright and/or Holliday vs. the top 3 SS. At the # 3 pick(if Hanley or Reyes is taken at # 2), I understand you’d take one of the top remaining SS over Wright since 3B is so deep, but what about Holliday over the remaining top SS?

Thanks,

Neighbor Steve

Loved the 8th round pick of Jeff Francour. Big upside with this kid!

Chris Young from Arizona was too high of a pick for me. There were so many more players I would have selected before him!

hey cory! thanks for the advice. love the show (obviously).
wanted to make a correction. heard on the podcast that you thought pujols went right before you in the draft.

in fact, he “fell” to you at eleven and you still passed on him. to me, this indicates that feel the health risk does not justify the potential reward of drafting him in the first round.

i mean, is prince fielder going to be that much worse that you want to introduce so much risk right away in the draft by takig pujols instead?

thoughts?

Hey Cory,

Great Draft…the thing I liked about this Mock Draft was the Live play-by-play that was going on during your draft. Very insight and funny, especially when participants were getting killed by the host paul grecco. great experience to see you experts do what you do.

here was where I listened to the draft, there’s an archive there that I got to download too.

http://blogtalkradio.com/fantasybaseballguy

great job cory and way to represent

I find some big differences between MDC and actual drafts that I have partaken in so far.

I have done eight drafts on The Sporting News. These sites have their own pre-ranks and that can certainly affect what round a player gets taken in. The mob mentality will follow closely along with the rankings.

Here are some average draft positions for some of your picks Cory if you were playing on TSN.

Crawford 23rd

Jeter 52nd

Roberts 56th

Another player you like, Russel Martin’s ADP is 40th.

Thanks for the comments. Re. Pujols, I guess I didn’t remember he was still there for me at 11, but yes, I passed on him due to a) health concerns, b) wanting more speed rather than power with my early pick and c) wanting OF over 1B.

NS, Capps over Soria was a toss-up so I took the guy in the weak (but improving) NL Central over the guy in the tougher AL Central. Not much between them really.

Deano, re. the ADP on TSN, those numbers look ridiculous to me and I would put no weight whatsoever into them. Any league that leaves Carl Crawford to the 23rd pick is not a serious league. My two cents.

–CS

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