NFBC recap, final thoughts

An Excel file is attached with three tabs:

1. The complete NFBC pick-by-pick results for New York League 9 (we are Team 15);
2. The opening day 23-man rosters for each team in our league… note that NFBC rules allow for teams to NOT have an official roster after 23 rounds, so a lot of clubs wait to draft their second catcher or ninth pitcher until the reserve rounds. These projected rosters use the earliest picks taken by each team to build an official 23-man roster, and do NOT account for guys who will be on the DL or otherwise not active at the start of the season (Lackey, Kazmir, etc.);
3. Projected standings using my own projections.

These results obviously show that our team has tremendous upside, but in reviewing our projections, they are very optimistic for a lot of players… not just the young guys (Maybin, Pie, Milledge, Ellsbury, Weaver, Towles, Encarnacion) but also for some of the veterans, too (Delgado, Arroyo, even Soriano). I wouldn’t say we’re guilty of drafting to the projections, but clearly we’re taking an optimistic view of what this team can do. We need not just good seasons from some of our young guys, but breakout, Rookie of the Year type seasons.

In hindsight, a guy like Ichiro would’ve been a much better second pick for us than SKevinkouzmanoff07
oriano. I’m not a big fan of either guy, but getting that high AVG/SB combo would’ve positioned us much better for our subsequent and later round picks. Furcal or even Kinsler would’ve been a better fit than Atkins, too. Then we take Lincecum over Encarnacion, Kouzmanoff (right) over Weaver, then Delgado becomes our CI rather than UT and we can take several different options… and with Ichiro/Furcal, we don’t need to gamble on Maybin, so we go with a Franklin Gutierrez or Luke Scott and that offsets some of the power we’d have passed on earlier.

You can drive yourself crazy doing this, but it’s clear to me in hindsight that our early round picks set us on a path that put us in a position where we had to take more and bigger gambles than we should’ve.

For the record, I don’t have any regrets about the first four pitchers we took, or when we took them. My research and mock drafts all made me very comfortable taking five pitchers in our first 12 picks (3 SP, 2 CL), and that’s what we did, but we just missed on the third SP we wanted (McGowan or Wainwright). Otherwise it would’ve been a dream start to our pitching staff.

Anyway, that’s how it all went down. Listener league draft is Thursday and Tout Wars NL is on Saturday, so I’ll see if I can get off tilt and right the ship. Good luck to everyone in your drafts!

–Cory

5 Comments

Hey Cory,
Thanks for posting up all of this info. It’s interesting to see how mocks help you prepare for other mocks, not for real drafts. I know you said last year that you did so many mock drafts and so many projections, but all that was blown up when Johan and Carpenter were available when they were. Another interesting thing is that in the projected standings the #1 and #2 teams combine for 3 total points in average. Keep up the good work.

Mike in CT

Very informative read Cory.
Thanks,

Alan

I listened to the podcast from Monday (3/17) and when hearing the fiasco with Cory drafting Ryan Howard in the first round, the following question popped up. While the first pick dictates the direction for the following picks, when is it pertinent to abandon the ‘Best Available’ strategy and switch to the ‘Needs based’ strategy?

I use spreadsheets to track my needs. I have a set of numbers that should win each category. When I draft a player, I cut and paste his numbers into my team sheet to know what percentage of the categories that player should fill. I use a +/- system for average, ERA and Whip with ERA and Whip using a multiplier with percentage of innings pitched for the team. I do plan on using a pitch and pitch philosophy for several starting spots, and I probably overrank closers. But I do believe that hitters hit and pitchers get hurt.

Ideally, all categories go to 100% by the end of the draft, but other people ruin the best laid plans. So when do I switch from picking best available players to drafting what my team needs?

Later,

Steve

Chattanooga

Thanks for your spreadsheet!

Later,

Steve

Hoping this bumps to the front with this comment, but I just wanted to extend a hearty cyber-handshake to Cory for a job well done…again. I believe that’s 2 top-10 finishes, which has gone unnoticed in NFBC circles.

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