Pitch or Ditch for Monday 4/28

Siano and I put our heads together and here are our recommendations.

Pitch: Vazquez, Snell, Santana (duh!), Haren and Cain
Ditch: Everyone else

If you are feeling daring, you can take a shot on Cabrera, Wellemeyer, Gaudin or Garland, but we ain’t going there.

As far as Cabrera, Mike did point out late last week that in his five starts this year, Cabrera has given up 5, 4, 3, 2 and 0 walks, which would seemingly indicate a talented young pitcher finally putting it together. But color me unimpressed. Yes, his walk rate is a career low right now but so is his strikeout rate, resulting in a K/BB ratio that is actually the worst of his career despite his improved (for now) control. He’s not getting as many ground balls as in recent seasons, and his home run rate is actually up slightly from last year, which is a worry going into homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. I just don’t trust this guy.
20060509pd_IanSnell_230.jpg

Meanwhile, while we do give the green light to Ian Snell (right), his recent performance is indeed a source for worry. While he’s given up only one homer so far this year, he’s giving up more fly balls than ever before. And while his walk rate is a career best, his strikeout rate is a career worst and he’s allowing a .298 batting average to opposing hitters. This is definitely a worrisome data set and a situation to monitor closely.

Good luck!

Thanks,
Cory

3 Comments

I agree with above about Snell – I drafted him as my #3, but I have to sit him for now – he’s got little offensive run support – the one 10 K start was nice, but the rest of this year hasn’t been!

BTW, love the new pitch or ditch format where you just tell us the starts

also, the new show format is growing on me. Clearly, the change to a more structured format has been tough on Mike and Cory. You can almost see the steam coming out of Sterno’s ears as he tries to steer the show. Much of the “off the cuff” spontaneity that Mike and Cory is now curtailed, but it leads to a stronger show overall.

there seems to more prep time behind the scenes. i like that there is more straight up analysis from mike and cory. under the old format, callers steered the discussion a bit too much.
as much as i enjoy all the characters in the 411 community, hearing phone calls from the same callers over and over again gets a little old.
now the infotainment is even better!

the only thing I really miss are the recurrent segments with Jeffery Ma and the BP guys. I guess after “21″ came out Jeffery went all “hollywood” ;) – any plans to have Jeffery back on a regular basis?

btw, on the cbs sportsline fantasy baseball podcast – eric mack referenced the 411 pitching strategy – using the phrase “pitch or ditch” and crediting “another fantasy baseball podcast” – disappointed that he didn’t give the fantasy 411 full credit.

clearly, you guys are the best….

Like Cory, I’m still hesitant on Daniel Cabrera. His Ks are down along with his walks- he seems like a different pitcher, completely!
Man, how happy is Siano about getting Cliff Lee for $1 in AL Tout?!?! I remember asking Cory in the chat last week if Lee was really this good and Cory saying that no pitcher is as good as a 0.40 ERA. That’s (probably) true, but Cliff followed that up with a complete game shutout, so there we are. I snagged him late in almost all of my leagues and man, am I ever happy I did! Muchos gracias 411!

-Dan in Los Angeles

Bob, I did an interview a couple of weeks ago with Jeff Erickson of Rotowire on his XM Satellite Radio, and he asked me what I thought of “streaming” pitchers. I said, “well, as far as I know I was the first person to promote this as a strategy, so it should be called pitch-or-ditching and of course I think it’s a legal, ethical and sound strategy.” :-)

Thanks,
Cory

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