More fun with unreads (6/6)
Hi folks, unfortuantely my schedule is a little tight today so I only have enough time for two, but here ya go. Also, quick thoughts on PoD for tonight for those of you in ESPN leagues… pitch Webb (duh!), Verlander, Rasner, F.Hernandez, Colon, Marcum, Cueto, Hudson, Lincecum, Bergmann, Kazmir, Padilla (ride the Padilla Flotilla!), Vazquez, Sheets, Lackey (see below), J.Santana, Wolf (only at home) and Kuroda. Ditch on the rest.
Have a great weekend!
1. From Zachary from Long Island:
I want to know what you think of this trade.
Also what should I do with Justin Verlander. His past few starts have been better but the drop in K’s concerns me.
Cory: Zach, I think you got a good return here. In simple math terms:
Young > Escobar
Ross < Church
Holliday > Crawford (Holliday is on rehab this weekend)
Hernandez > Cain
Young is no superstar but Escobar has cooled off some lately so their respective track records suggest you got an upgrade there, and while gving up the speed of Crawford will hurt, you should get big gains in all other categories from Holliday. Church is certainly more valuable than Ross, that gap should close as the season progresses. Finally, Felix and Cain are both somewhat disappointing but if I had to gamble on one, it would be Felix. Even if he’s no longer the King but only some Duke or whatever.
As far as Verlander, his inability to reclaim his strikeout rate is indeed a big concern, but the AVG against him is consistent with recent seasons, so he’s still a tough at-bat. His overall stats should continue to improve but it already appears to be too late for him to match his numbers from last season or even ’06.
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2. From Jake Stern
Hey guys (love your show),
I’m in a 11 team mixed league with R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG% X W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/9 as stats. I have a bunch of guys in the outfield (Swisher, Vlad, Milton Bradley, Hunter Pence, Francouer, and Joey Votto), but I’m weak in starting pitching. All I have is Burnett, Wainwright, Justin Masterson, Homer Bailey (the latter two I’ve just picked up), with Peavy on the DL. Do you think a Vlad for John Lackey trade would benefit me, or, if not, what outfielder should I trade and what pitchers should I target. Thanks.
Cory: Our general rule is to never trade a bat for an arm, and I’m a huge Vladdy fan, but this is a good risk. You don’t have great outfield depth, and Vlad could go nuclear at any time, but his advancing age, increasing injury risk and declining speed make his perceived value much greater than his actual value at this stage of the game. And while Vlad would still go ahead of Lackey on draft day, Lackey is a well-established top-shelf starter, who would probably qualify as a bottom-tier #1 in an 11-team league such as this. Plus, your specific categories – particularly K/9 and OBP – serve to add value to Lackey and reduce some from Vlad. We love us some Vladdy, but this is a good return for an aging superstar.
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