Unread from 6/12

12-team, 5X5 mixed Mafia league roster.
 
I’m in 5th with 67 pts. I’m pretty average across the board but feel like I could deal an arm for SB. The first place team, who has 100 pts, is interested. He has Ellsbury at utility, and I think he could afford to deal SB being up 20 already on 2nd place in SB. I was thinking of offering Bedard for Ellsbury (overpaying right?). My pitching staff is Bedard, Lincecum, Volquez, Big Erv, Lilly, Mussina, Wolf, and Gallagher (waiver wire player), with K-Rod, Todd Jones, Howry and Zumaya (DL) completing it. I have other issues like a weak ERA and WHIP and an underperforming offense, but I’d like to unload Bedard since I think I have enough SP to keep up and possibly improve the ERA and WHIP. My outfield: Kemp, C Young, Bruce, Kosuke, DeRosa (Ankiel on bench). I suppose Ellsbury would replace Kosuke, or I’d move DeRosa to 2B (Cano) or MI (K Johnson). What do you think?
 
Chip

What’s up Chip,

Well, I’m on record in previous Fantasy 411 blogs as being a big proponent of Bedard, and I can’t give up on him yet. He has been trading off impressive starts with very poor starts in his last six outings, which is probably his first sign that he is working out his kinks. His next step is to put together quality back-to-back starts. Bedard has a very good chance to make another quality start in his next outing on Saturday at home against the Nationals. He has a 2.19 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home, so he is doing what is expected of him at one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball.
 
I like Ellsbury a lot, especially his stolen base rate. The outfielder has converted 29 of 32 steals attempts and his batting average (.281) and on-base percentage (.373) are sustainable. He can easily surpass 50 steals and may finish somewhere in the 60-65 steal range. What you need to remind yourself of is that steals are obviously just one category. Ellsbury has scored 45 runs and can score at least 45 more, but it seems that you need more help in more categories. Trading Bedard isn’t the best route to lowering your ERA and WHIP. The talent hasn’t suddenly withered away from his body, so don’t you think you would want him to help lower your ERA and WHIP once he goes on a hot streak? Don’t forget that he has a 7.9 K/9 rate, so he will be integral to helping you pass other teams in strikeouts. A one-two punch of Bedard and Lincecum gives you a fantastic opportunity to make up ground in pitching, so I wouldn’t offer Bedard for Ellsbury.

Kyle Stack

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