The Home Run Derby Curse Revisited
Hey everyone,
Last year, I posted an entry on this blog where I examined the well-known theory of the “Home Run Derby curse.” On the day after we witnessed the greatest ever single round derby performance, as Josh Hamilton clubbed 28 out of the park, I thought this was a subject worth revisiting. Here you’ll find my post from a year ago with some changes, including the addition of the 2007 results as yet another data point. Hope this adds some insight into what has been a popular topic for discussion!
Zach Steinhorn
Is the “Home Run Derby Curse” real? David Wright (2006) and Bobby Abreu (2005) both experienced major second half power outages after impressive performances in the Home Run Derby (Abreu won the event while Wright finished second to Ryan Howard). The post All-Star break home run struggles of Wright and Abreu led many to question whether success in the Derby has an adverse effect on a player’s power stroke once he returns to regular game action, as he would be trying too hard to hit homers rather than relying on his natural swing. Alex Rios, last year’s second place finisher, continued the trend. Here’s a closer look. Below you’ll find pre and post All Star break stats for both the Home Run Derby winners and runner ups over the past six years. Keep in mind that the break is slightly more than halfway into the season, so first half HR and RBI numbers will often be greater regardless of any “curse.”
2007
Vladimir Guerrero
Pre ASB: .325 AVG 14 HR 75 RBI
Post ASB: .323 AVG 13 HR 50 RBI
Alex Rios
Pre ASB: .294 AVG 17 HR 53 RBI
Post ASB: .300 AVG 7 HR 32 RBI
2006
Ryan Howard
Pre ASB: .278 AVG 28 HR 71 RBI
Post ASB: .355 AVG 30 HR 78 RBI
David Wright
Pre ASB: .316 AVG 20 HR 74 RBI
Post ASB: .305 AVG 6 HR 42 RBI
2005
Bobby Abreu
Pre ASB: .307 AVG 18 HR 58 RBI
Post ASB: .260 AVG 6 HR 44 RBI
Ivan Rodriguez
Pre ASB: .292 AVG 6 HR 32 RBI
Post ASB: .252 AVG 8 HR 18 RBI
2004
Miguel Tejada
Pre ASB: .311 AVG 15 HR 75 RBI
Post ASB: .311 AVG 19 HR 75 RBI
Lance Berkman
Pre ASB: .299 AVG 16 HR 59 RBI
Post ASB: .335 AVG 14 HR 47 RBI
2003
Garrett Anderson
Pre ASB: .316 AVG 22 HR 78 RBI
Post ASB: .313 AVG 7 HR 38 RBI
Albert Pujols
Pre ASB: .368 AVG 27 HR 86 RBI
Post ASB: .346 AVG 16 HR 38 RBI
2002
Jason Giambi
Pre ASB: .318 AVG 22 HR 71 RBI
Post ASB: .309 AVG 19 HR 51 RBI
Sammy Sosa
Pre ASB: .307 AVG 28 HR 58 RBI
Post ASB: .264 AVG 21 HR 50 RBI
Of these 12 players, Rios, Wright, Abreu, Anderson, and Pujols are the examples of significant second half decline. Pujols is the only one who at the time was known as an elite power hitter. Wright, Abreu, and Anderson were all excellent hitters the year they competed in the Derby, but homers were not their primary strength. You can make a convincing argument that the high first half home run totals of Rios, Wright, Abreu, and Anderson were just as surprising as their second half home run drop. But the drastic decrease in RBI specifically of Wright, Anderson, and Pujols do support the general trend of decreased offensive production.
What have we learned from all this? There’s just not enough evidence for us to directly blame the Home Run Derby for our fantasy star’s second half plunge, as there are plenty of other factors involved. And for every Rios, Wright and Abreu, there’s a Howard, who hit an amazing 30 homers AFTER the break in 2006, and a Tejada, who was a model of consistency in 2004. So don’t panic, Morneau and Hamilton owners! For now, it seems that the “Home Run Derby Curse” is just a myth.
mlbtstufantasy411
Why not consider all of the players who made it through 2 rounds to make the sample size larger?
Why not consider all of the players who made it to the second round, increase the sample size.
sorry bout that.
One major error…. you keep making the assumption that the All-Star break is the half-way point. Its the 60% point – thus fewer second half at bats. Look at the RBI’s post all-star game: nearly everybody had significantly less RBI’s as well – because they played less games than the first “half”
Yeah, I mentioned that in the blurb. This is why I really only discussed guys with a very clear second half dropoff (i.e. second half numbers generally < 40% of total). Regardless, this point would even further negate the curse theory!
Everyone is always looking for a “curse” in pro sports. I know it all too well being a Cubs fan and our Billy Goat problem. The Red Sox had it… heck there is even a curse of Madden Football game covers. As long as people are failing and/or under-performing someone will always be there to point out some supernatural aspect of the trend.
I never like to go against my man Zach, but I did some basic research on this and it would appear that the “Curse” is real, although its effect is relatively limited. I will post on this later tonight.
Thanks,
Cory
Hmmmm, if I understand correctly the players selected for the derby are those that have the highest HR totals from the beginning of the season up to the point before the all-star break. Statistically speaking, this is a really small sample size and frankly even the best baseball players go through their entire career with a sample size that is extremely hard to quantify due to all the variables (age, diet, park effects, opposition, etc.)
So perhaps some of those that make it to the all-star break leading the league in HRs are just an aberration and aren’t the true sluggers of the league. Sure they have shown they have the ability to do something, but knowing how consistent they can do it is one of the great mysteries surrounding baseball statistics. Humans are unpredictable and it’s virtually impossible to quantify who is a slugger based on statistics alone.
On a psychological spin, perhaps these players that do well in the derby feel a need to “defend” their honor and try too hard to hit Homeruns instead of focusing on good solid contact.