Unreads for 7/21

**With the new condensed show format, we’re going to try to cover more questions than we did before.  The answers might be a bit shorter, but they’ll also get right to the point!

Zach

Hey guys I LOVE this show. Here’s the scoop. I’m in a 15-team keeper league and really need pitching. I have D. Lee and Pujols in my 1B and DH. Then I have A-Ram at 3B and we have no CI or MI. I am in 3rd place and making a push for 1st. I have Glaus on the bench and was thinking of trading D. Lee for Lincecum. Would this get it done? Can I trust Glaus to slide into my DH?

Thanks for all the advice!
Tommy, formerly in Japan, now in Cincinnati

Hey Tommy,

Yeah, go ahead and make this deal if you can!  After playing in just 115 contests for the Jays last year, Glaus has yet to miss a single game in his first season with the Cardinals.  He’ll approach 30 HR and 100 RBI and should be nowhere near your bench, especially in a 15 team league.  The D. Lee for Lincecum swap is a totally fair one.  Derrek Lee is having his typical Derrick Lee season, hitting for average, power, and driving in his fair share of runs.  But Lincecum, at the age of 24, already ranks among the top handful of starters in the majors and is clearly a fantasy ace.  Factor in the added production you’ll be getting from Glaus, accept the trade without thinking twice.   

In a vacuum, would you trade away the struggling-as-of-late Aramis Ramirez for Mark Teixera?

Malik
Tucson, AZ

Hey Malik,

A-Ram is without question an elite fantasy third baseman, but you’re right, his recent numbers (2 for 26, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 R over last 7 games) are flat out awful.  But relax!  Every hitter goes through slumps.  That said, I’d deal Ramirez for Tex 100 times out of 100.  Everyone knows about Teixeira’s history of second half brilliance (post All-Star break average of .305 BA  20 HR  65 RBI since 2005).  Without knowing the rest of your roster, I say snatch up Tex now before it’s too late!  

Hey guys,
 
I am a huge supporter of the show.
 
I am in an 5×5 NL Only nine team keeper league.
I am dead last in HR and RBI
 
I’ve been offered Adam Dunn for Cole Hamels straight up.
 
My other starting pitchers are:

Lincecum
Lilly
Wellemeyer
Campillo
 
Would you do this deal? Your insight would be great.

Thanks for your help,
Tampa Pete

Hey Pete,

No way!  First off, I don’t think your starting pitching is deep enough to afford the loss of Hamels.  Despite the first half success of Wellemeyer and Campillo, I’m worried about both of these guys.  Wellemeyer is already at a career high in innings (111) and has already shown signs of wearing down, posting a 1-2 record with a 7.15 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in four July starts.  Campillo has made it through the 6th inning in just six of his eleven starts and is just not consistent enough to be trusted as anything more than a pitch or ditch option.  As for Dunn, the 28 homers are great, but the .230 average is a category killer.  Unless you play in an OBP league, Dunn’s appeal is fairly limited.  I see him as a very poor man’s version of Ryan Howard, the big difference being that Howard actually has the ability to post a final season average above .250 on a consistent basis.  Though I advise against it, if you’re thinking about trading Hamels, definitely hold out for a better return.
 

I’ve just joined a competitive NL-only, 10 team, rotisserie league.  It’s a mid-season start (we drafted last Wednesday) but it’s a keeper league.  I am just finding my way on the trading as I’ve never done anything but mixed leagues!  I am currently doing this trade (I’m the Phillibusters):

Team Phillibusters would receive the following players:
Corpas, Manuel (P, COL)
Lewis, Fred (OF, SF)

Team BeanEaters would receive the following players:
Atkins, Garrett (3B, COL)

Is this too much to pay in an NL only league to get some steals and a closer in waiting?  My only closers are Fuentes and Jon Rauch and I’ve only got Michael Bourn and Lance Berkman for steals.  Could I have done better for Atkins?  Thanks!

Laura in Columbus, OH

Hey Laura,

Yup, I think you can.  Don’t get me wrong, acquiring speed while at the same time protecting yourself against a likely Fuentes trade is a smart move.  But you don’t really have to give up a top notch bat to do this deal.  In such a deep league, major run producers like Atkins are extremely hard to find, especially one who calls Coors Field home.  Atkins is a legit .300 hitter with 30 HR power and has a great shot at driving in 100 runs for the third straight season.  With only Fuentes and Rauch at the closer position, I agree that dealing for Corpas makes sense.  But if you can’t obtain him at a lesser price and have a decent backup plan for third base, try shopping Atkins around.  I bet you can do better!      

Zach Steinhorn

I’m looking for some SB’s from a middle infielder just before our July 27th deadline.  Got a guy who has offered me Kaz Matsui for Kobayashi.  I’m OK in saves right now (10 team mixed league with 30 man rosters …and I have Mariano, Jenks, Kobayashi, M. Gonzalez, Corpas, Marmol, Capps).  Worth a shot to do the deal for some SB’s?

Thanks,
Mike

Hey Mike,

Yeah, it’s worth a shot to make that trade. Astros manager Cecil Cooper just mentioned the other day that he hopes Matsui starts to steal more bases now that he’s embedded in the leadoff spot. He has 15 base swipes in 19 attempts, but he could definitely swipe 15 more now that he has the green light to run. You can afford to part with Kobayashi since Jenks is back from the DL and Marmol will take over the closer role with Kerry Wood shelved. And Corpas could provide some late-season saves in the seemingly inevitable event that Brian Fuentes is traded. It’s a worthy deal.

Hey guys, love the show. I have Ryan Zimmerman coming off the DL and I’m looking for some advice. I could drop Garza, Parra or Nolasco, or even Edwin Encarnacion. I’ve also got a trade offer on the table: I get Lincecum for Vladdy and Cristian Guzman. Tell me what you think.

Thanks!
Ben in London, ON

What’s up Ben,

First, with Zimmerman: I’d keep Encarnacion. Zim is coming off a shoulder injury, so he might struggle initially at the plate. Plus, you’d want some third base insurance in case Zim re-injures himself. Garza must stay, so I’d keep Nolasco over Parra. Nolasco has a 53/6 K/BB ratio in 57 2/3 innings, over his last eight starts, compared to a 34/20 K/BB ratio for Parra in his last eight outings. I’d stay at home with Vladdy and Guzman. Many others might do this deal, since Guzman’s .268 career batting average suggests he can’t sustain his current .310 average. However, I think Vlad will have a huge second half and I have a hard time rationalizing trading a good hitter for a good pitcher.


Someone might want to let Siano know Kerry Wood might be headed to the DL with blister problems… anyways, I’m proposing the following in my AL-keeper:

Baker (15th round keeper), Swisher (2nd), Eveland (15th) and Jeremy Reed (15th) for Ichiro (can’t keep), Morneau (can’t keep), Gallagher (can’t keep), and Dotel (15th). I also have Big Erv (15th) and Choo (15th) which I could replace Baker and Reed with, respectively.  Am I offering enough for Ichiro/Morneau?  I want to win now, the other owner is punting this season.

Thanks,
Scotty Mac

Hey Scotty Mac,

Baker and Eveland could make nice keepers and it feels like Swisher will start showing more consistent pop in his bat – at least more than in the two- or three-game instances he showed in June. If the other owner is punting this season, then you should use that philosophy against him as leverage. If he really cares about just obtaining keepers, it seems like your initial proposal is a good start. There is an obvious imbalance to the quality of talent in the proposal, so be prepared for his counteroffer. But I think your proposal is a good place to start. I’d hold onto Erv as long as possible, though.

Kyle Stack

 

3 Comments

Wow guys, great coverage of the questions. This was usually my fav. part of your live show and its good to see more of it in text. Keep up the good work. It goes without saying that we appreciate it considering its done out of the love of the game, not the love of money.

Great job Kyle and Zach, as always.
Again, just so everyone knows: http://www.baseballprospectus.com is free this week! I don’t work for them or anything, but their site rules. Check it out!

Don’t just use the free week at Baseball Prospectus, buy a subscription! They are great guys with a ton of great ideas about baseball and it’s money well spent. Happy shopping!
–CS

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