Post Show Blog For 7/25/08

Quick Programming Note: We will do a bonus show from 5-5:30pm ET on Thursday July 31st to break down any trades or non trades after the non waiver deadline passes which is at 4pm ET, but we want to give it an hour to settle a little. Looking forward to it.


Good discussion today on what the 1st and 2nd rounds may look like in 2009, but lots of games to be played before we know for sure and like Cory says after pick #2 it’s a free for all.


Zach will be posting POD for Sunday and Monday soon so let’s get to your questions and comments.


Bring It!!!!



Let’s get this party started… here’s a rough outline of next year’s first two rounds, as we presented on the show today:

1. A-Rod
2. Hanley
3. Reyes
4. Grady
5. Kinsler
6. Utley
7. Pujols
8. Wright
9. Holliday
10. Berkman
11. Braun
12. Phillips

13. Hamilton
14. Beltran
15. C.Lee
16. Howard
17. Rios
18. Upton
19. Crawford
20. McLouth
21. Ichiro!
22. B-Roberts
23. Kemp
24. C.Hart

Not on the list: Rollins, M-Cabrera, Fielder, Russell Martin, or any pitchers. Let the debate begin!

I would draft Lincecum ahead of Hart.
Tampa Pete

Hey guys-

Who would do you see giving the best production the rest of the year: Kornerko, CBY, Zimmerman, Blalock, Frenchy, or A. Gordon? Position doesn’t matter.

Hack in Rancho Cucamonga

Tough one, but I prob. draft Kinsler over Grady considering his position and higher ave. I do like them both!

In my 14 tmr, Jeff Baker is available. Would you pick him up and drop any one of my following bench players: Sheffield, C. Ross, B. Francisco, Kershaw, or Campillo. Thanks.

Neighbor Steve


They all have ridiculous question marks surrounding them and have been terrible so I’m going with a few gut feelings here. CBY and Gordon have highest ceiling to turn things around rest of way so you can flip a coin on them, but my dark horse is Blalock. Can he miss any more games? Jeez. If he stays in texas he’ll hit and if he gets moved (Twins seem interested) he could flourish in a pennant race and that park. I’d go Gordon or CBY for now but keep an eye on Hank.



Grab Baker and cut Ross. Sheff and Francisco have more value and Kershaw has too much upside right now and a nice POD matchup this weekend vs. Nats.


That seems high for McLouth. His year-end numbers will be good this season, but his track record in the minors doesn’t correlate with what he’s doing this year. I have him in every league so I’m obviously a big fan of his now, but I would never expect this kind of power production from him on a regular basis. He’s the new Eric Byrnes, I don’t think savvy fantasy players would buy into him either. He’s really more of a .275 20hr-25sb guy, not the .300 30hr-20sb guy he’ll probably be this year. I’d rather have Hart next season, honestly.
-Dan in Los Angeles

If Quentin keeps hitting & ends w/ 35 hr, where does he go?

Dan, I agree that McLouth doens’t have the track record, but if he finishes strong (admittedly still an if), and combined with the 12 HR/18 SB second half in ’07, he has to move way up the list. Maybe 3rd round, but no later than that.

Mreal, Quentin is probably a 3rd rounder IMO… Carlos Lee minus the steals.


Brandon Phillips moves up a lot from last year and he so far is worse than last year.

Will Johan drop out of the 1st round next year and if so where do you see him going? If CC stays at Miller Park will he take over from Johan as #1?

Also, if Posada has the surgery this season and he will be back at somepoint next season how far down will his value go? Who is likely to take his spot as a #1 or 2 catcher in a 2 catcher league?

Jan in Glasgow.

Phillips is indeed down a bit from last year, but mostly it’s just a handful of singles. Compare his stats from last year to his “pace” for this year:

2007 158 650 107 187 26 6 30 94 33 109 32 8 26 .288
2008 157 629 91 173 28 8 25 98 41 109 33 8 17 .275

Runs are down too, but that’s heavily team dependent. Overall, he looks like a very solid power-speed option at 2B. Sure, 12 may be a bit high, but no doubt he shouldn’t go much past that.


if Phillips goes 30-30 it won’t matter that his other numbers dropped some.
Sabathia won’t be a Brewer because I don’t think they will pay, but hey you never know. A bunch of people will still take Johan in 1st or 2nd round so take that into account.
Posada will still have value because when he does come back he will hit and will have multiple position eligibility especially if he plays again this year. he only needs 3 more games at 1B for 10 game leagues. Soto will jump up and take his spot in top 5.

I’m in a keeper league where we keep 3 players for 3 years. I am out of options on Rollins and Carlos Lee. I am in 1st thanks to a great deal of luck (late in the draft, I took Harden, Quentin and Longoria). I also traded away Ellsbury for Magglio while he was smoking (against the advice of the 411🙂

I don’t want to mess with success so my 3 keepers would be out of Sabathia, Maggs, R Martin, Longoria, Quentin, BJ Upton (1 year).

Since we only keep 3, top keepers are a premium. Do I stand pat trying to win this year & let the keepers fall where they may (my plan) or try to trade up to better keepers while not upsetting the apple cart?


CHICAGO – Prior to tonight’s game at Detroit, the Chicago White Sox placed third baseman Joe Crede on the 15-day disabled list (retroactive to July 22) with back lumbar inflammation and recalled third baseman Josh Fields from Class AAA Charlotte.

Mreal, win now and worry about keepers later. You should be willing to trade any player if you think it will make your team better… and besides, if you win, you’ll certainly have three players worth keeping for next year.

just got to see the show & wanted to comment on Ollie Perez’s performance last night. Not that I would call it a fluke by any means, but I wouldn’t expect those kinds of strike out numbers for the rest of the year. Having watched the entire game, there was a great deal of commenting by the announcers that the home plate ump Eric Cooper was calling almost all the pitches inside & off the plate strikes. He was doing it for both pitchers & that was partially responsible for the fine performances turned in by both Perez & Moyer; as a number of strikes were looked at all night by hitters that should have rightfully been called balls (including the strike three for 5 of Moyer’s 6 K’s).

On a different note, I just wanted to say that I hope that I wasn’t the one gentleman who didn’t think you were doing a great job that you referenced at the end of the show (for my bit of criticism the other day). If that’s the case, please don’t think that true, Sterno. I’m a big fan of yours & no matter what I’ve always thought you’ve done a “great job” as Tim & Eric would say. I’ve got much love for you guys as the F411 is right up there w/LOST as my favorite shows that I never miss. If I didn’t love ya, why would I have been so upset that the show got cut in half?
So keep up the good work you bunch of monkey nuggets!

shannon in ky

I would probably still draft Grady before Kinsler because this is the first year that Ian has produced the and stayed healthy. We don’t know yet weather Kinsers 08 in the peak or the average. At least Grady has produced the same numbers the last three years.


Though you’re right about Kinsler’s health issues, his statistics will stand up to scrutiny. Given a 162 game season, some of his stats over the last three years would be:

2006–.286 avg, 87 runs, 19 HRs, 74 RBI, 15 SB
2007–.263 avg, 119 runs, 25 HRs, 76 RBI, 28 SB
2008–.329 avg, 139 runs, 22 HRs, 97 RBI, 40 SB

What I’m seeing is a 26 year old, playing on an improved offensive team, raising his stats every year. If he this is his peak season, his 2007 stats (with the exception of BA) are still pretty darn solid.

Whether he should be drafted ahead of Sizemore depends on your team’s needs.


McLouth and Kemp have no business being drafted in the 1st 2 rounds. I’d much rather have a guy like Miggy or Quentin over those two.

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