Post-show blog for 8/18

Siano is out this week so I’ll do my best to cover the blog solo! We can lament the utter suckitude of Aaron Harang, ponder the amazing awesomeness of Melvin Mora, and ponder the future of September call-ups. Post your questions and comments here and I will reply today and tonight as time allows.

Also, keep the Facebook requests coming, and if you are on Facebook already, make sure to add yourself to the Fantasy 411 fan page. Spread the love!

Thanks,

Cory

 

11 Comments

Cory,
Is Jay Bruce a keeper? 12-team vanilla, keep 5.

-Dan in LA

Hey Cory,

16 team mixed league. I’m looking for the best combination of HR (priority) and AVG off the WW, at 1B or as a 4th OF/Util. I dropped Hermida and Davis yesterday because of the AVG to pick up Adam Lind. So, I have one spot left (two if I re-drop Lind) for one of these players: Butler, Bruce (though the lefty/righty splits are worrying), B. Francisco, Votto, Baldelli, Headley.
I’m also intrigued by Konerko due to the good lineup and his career stats.

Who are the two you would get in this list?

Thanks,
Keep up the good work, it has helped my rookie fantasy season be respectable .

Dan, I think he’s an option but is a slam-dunk top-5 round pick in a vanilla league? That might be pushing it a little bit… I’d love to see what I could get for him in trade.

Titou, none of those guys are going to hit for a great AVG, I probably would’ve just stuck with Davis. After him, I’d rank them Bruce, Francisco, Votto, Butler, Baldelli, Headley. Konerko has been hot lately but still has playing time concerns with Griffey and Swisher in the mix.

–CS

Manuel sits Reyes today…is he just getting him some rest, or is there an issue there?

Hey Cory
Greetingssss from India..been listening to you guys all yr every podcast…you guys are awesome …except the time when u said harang is a great buy low candidate ;).. but every other time u guys have been almost spot on…abt harang , well i did buy low in 3 of my leagues.. and have dropped him in 2… I am hurting in starting pitching in this league.. I have Young harang joba n carmona…with webb and billingsley as my other 2 starters… should i drop
any of those 4.. and if yes who do i pick.. standard 12 team mixed league…the guys on the WW r derek lowe,brett myers, (casey’s fav) jimenez, kuroda,slowey n bush…n can you guys please have an over/under on how many saves capps will have from this point on…
thanx a lot in advance…

William, I would assume it’s a day of rest. Reyes has been on a tear lately and behaving like a good citizen. :-)

Swapy, no doubt we are also disapponted in Harang, but obviously his health is a bigger problem than we were aware. Hopefully we give more correct advice than not! So let’s try this again… under the circumstances I’d have to consider dropping Harang and Carmona and picking up Lowe, Myers (yep, he appears to be back in business) or maybe Slowey. Outside if the elite, no SP should be considered a slam dunk at this point in the season so go with performance over names.

Over/under on Capps saves, let’s go for 7.

–CS

Harang is a huge disappointment this season, I was counting on a lot from him. I wonder if its an injury or more a case of the “Dusty Baker Effect” after that ridiculous 4 inning relief stint he had him do back in June in San Diego?He’s just never been right since then.

Cory, do you think Wainwright comes back as a starter or in the Pen? Being a Chris Perez owner I’m hoping they make him a starter, but we all know LaRussa is about 11 kinds of crazy.

Brian in Philly

Brian, it would seem as of now that Wainwright will come back as a starter, but I ready today that Carpenter might come back from DL as soon as he’s eligible, at which point they would presumably be full with him, Lohse, Looper, Pineiro and Wellemeyer. But with Perez pitching so well as the closer, it would seem most likely to me that Wainwright will slot into the rotation and send Pineiro to long relief. That’s my guess at least.
–CS

Zito with a shutout in the seventh. This season is just too weird.
-Dan in LA

Kinsler done for the year?? PoD at second base?

Cory, a couple of items that might be of interest to others, that you might expand upon:
1) We’re reaching the point in the season where pitchers are hitting “milestone” numbers of innings, such as 150 IP, 180 IP, etc., that they have not exceeded before or where limits may be imposed. Who are the younger or more fragile pitchers that we should be watching closely with regard to IP? (one of mine, Jurrjens)
2) Everyone knows that for stats calculated as averages, it is more difficult to move the needle as the season progresses, particularly this late. However, if you are in contention in these categories, you can calculate how good your team has to do to move up, and “POD” or “Hit or Sit” accordingly. Here’s a couple rules of thumb for this time of year: a) to lower your ERA by 0.01, you have to do about 0.05 better than your season average for the rest of the year, b) to raise your BA by 0.001, you need to be 0.004 better than your season average. So for example, if you need 0.03 in ERA to move up a spot, grab a couple of low ERA relievers or sit your higher ERA starters. Or swap out that .260 hitter with power for a singles hitter batting .320 over the last week. Obviously these numbers rise with time. Clearly not a foolproof strategy, and you should be doing these things anyway, but using the rules of thumb gives you a benchmark for those waiver wire pickups.
Allan in San Antonio

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