He is moving away from pitcher-friendly Dolphin Stadium, but the KC lineup is terrible. So I say this trade significantly hurts Jacobs’ value. When was the last time a KC hitter was really worth owning in a standard fantasy league? Carlos Beltran? Mike Sweeney? What do you guys think?
KANSAS CITY, MO (October 30, 2008) – The Kansas City Royals have acquired first baseman Mike Jacobs from the Florida Marlins in exchange for right-handed pitcher Leo Nunez.
“We’re delighted to acquire a productive hitter to impact the middle of our lineup,” said Dayton Moore, Royals’ Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager. “Mike’s a winner and has a very aggressive approach to baseball and we look forward to his presence on our club.”
Jacobs, who turned 28 today, hit .247 (118-for-477) with a career-high 32 home runs and 93 RBI for the Marlins in 2008. The left-handed hitter and right-handed thrower also recorded 27 doubles, two triples and scored 67 runs in 141 games. His 32 homers were the second-most among left-handed hitters in Marlins history, trailing Carlos Delgado’s 33 in 2005. Jacobs’ 18 home runs away from home in 2008 ranked tied for seventh in the Majors. He homered once every 14.9 at bats, which ranked 10th in the Majors and among first basemen trailed only Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols.
The 6-foot-3, 215-pound Jacobs was acquired by Florida from the New York Mets on November 24, 2005 with Yusmeiro Petit and Grant Psomas in exchange for Carlos Delgado and cash. He is a .262 career hitter with 80 home runs and 247 RBI. He homered in his first Major League at bat on August 21, 2005 with the Mets. Originally a ninth-round pick of the Mets in 1999, he was named the New York Minor League Player of the Year in both 2003 and 2005.
Drafted as a catcher, Jacobs was converted to first base during the 2005 season. He and his wife, Vanessa, had twin daughters, Gabriella and Havana, on July 29, 2007.
The 25-year old Nunez was 4-1 with a 2.98 ERA in 45 relief appearances for the Royals in 2008.
ANAHEIM, CA – The Angels Tuesday announced the club will exercise 2009 options on Vladimir Guerrero and John Lackey and decline the 2009 option on Garret Anderson. Additionally, Gary Matthews Jr. and Mike Napoli will undergo surgeries this week. Guerrero underwent successful surgery on the medial meniscus in his left knee earlier this month. These announcements were made today by Angels’ General Manager Tony Reagins.
Guerrero, 32, had surgery on the medial meniscus in his left knee on October 10th at the Steadman-Hawkins Clinic in Vail, CO. The surgery was performed by Dr. Richard Steadman. Guerrero is expected to be ready for Spring Training. In 2008, the veteran batted .303 (164/541) with 31 doubles, three triples, 27 home runs and 91 RBI in 143 games in 2008. He logged a .300 average and at least 25 home runs for the 11th consecutive season, joining Lou Gehrig (1927-37) as the only two players in MLB history to do so. An eight-time All-Star, Guerrero owns a club-best .323 average in five seasons as an Angel. Originally signed by the Montreal Expos as a free agent (March 1, 1993), the Dominican Republic native is hitting .323 (2136/6617) overall with 404 doubles, 43 triples, 392 home runs and 1268 RBI in 1,750 major league games.
Lackey, 30, completed 2008 with a 12-5 record, three complete games and a 3.75 ERA (163.1 IP – 68 ER) in 23 starts, posting 40 walks and 130 strikeouts. He began the season on the 15-day disabled list due to a strained right triceps and was activated May 14 (his first-ever DL appearance). In his career, Lackey is 91-63 with 13 complete games, seven shutouts and a 3.81 ERA (1,324.2 IP – 562 ER). An MLB All-Star in 2007, he owns the third-lowest ERA (based on 600 IP) in the AL since 2005 (3.42; 814 IP – 309 ER). A native of Abilene, Texas, Lacked was originally selected by the Angels in the second round of the 1999 free agent draft.
Anderson, 36, batted .293 (163/557) with 15 home runs and 84 RBI in 145 games in 2008. The longest tenured Angel in 2008, he marked his 14th full season with the club and his 14th consecutive season batting .280 or better (only other MLB active player to do this is Manny Ramirez). A three-time All-Star, Anderson ranks as the Angels’ all-time leader in several categories, including games (2,013), runs (1,024), hits (2,368), doubles (489), total bases (3,743) and RBI (1,292). Anderson ranks second in home runs (272) and third in career average (.296). A native of Los Angeles, CA, he was originally signed by the Angels after being a fourth round selection in the 1990 June free agent draft.
Matthews Jr., 34, will have surgery to repair the patella tendon in his left knee today (October 28th). He posted a .242 average (103/426) with 19 doubles, three triples, eight home runs and 46 RBI in 127 games in 2008. Signed by the Angels as a Major League free agent, Nov. 22, 2006, he has played for seven different major league teams (also San Diego, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh, New York Mets, Baltimore and Texas). Originally selected by the Padres in the 13th round of the 1993 June free agent draft, Matthews Jr. owns a .259 career average (966/3729) with 203 doubles, 27 triples, 104 home runs and 433 RBI in 1,142 major league games (spanning over eight seasons). A native of San Francisco, CA, he is the son of Gary Matthews Sr., who played 16 years in the majors for the Giants, Braves, Phillies, Cubs and Mariners.
Napoli will have arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder October 31st (his 27th birthday). In 2008, he split catching duties with Jeff Mathis and made 71 starts behind the plate. Napoli batted .273 (62/227) with nine doubles, one triple, 20 home runs and 49 RBI, setting career highs in average, hits, home runs, RBI and stolen bases (7). He was placed on the disabled list, July 7, due to right shoulder irritation (and was activated, Aug.7). In his career, Napoli owns a .248 average (177/714) with 33 doubles, two triples, 46 home runs and 125 RBI in 252 major league games. A native of Hollywood, FL, he was originally selected by the Angels in the 17th round of the 2000 free agent draft.
Ever wonder how the actual MLB clubs would fare if they played each other in a 30 team 5×5 fantasy league? I did, and decided to go through the long process of figuring it all out. Using the team stats from the 2008 regular season, I went ahead and assigned roto point values for each of the five hitting and five pitching categories. How different are these fantasy standings from the real ones? Are the standard 10 categories accurate measures in explaining a team’s performance on the field? Below you’ll find the end of season fantasy standings broken down by division along with the roto point totals. I’ve also attached the Excel spreadsheet so you can see all the raw data.
Red Sox 249.5
Blue Jays 179.5
White Sox 198
I expected it to be close, but not quite to this extent! The only differences that have postseason implications is the Red Sox winning the AL East over the Rays with Tampa being the wildcard and the Mets edging out the Brewers for the NL wildcard. Also, the 100-win Angels are far from the best team in baseball, trailing the Red Sox, Rays, and Phillies while barely squeaking by the Yankees and Mets. Instead, the Cubbies take home the title.
While there are certainly other fantasy relevant stats that could serve as more effective predictors, these 10 seem to do just fine. However, there’s one pretty obvious problem. The playoffs aren’t included here, so the “Curse of the Billy Goat” doesn’t apply! Only in fantasy can the Cubs actually win a championship.
Feel free to post your feedback. Looking forward to hearing from all of 411 Nation.
I have no idea why, but the Padres have reportedly begun to explore the market for reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy. Unlike Johan Santana’s situation last offseason, Peavy is signed through 2013 at the fairly reasonable rate of $56 million over the next four years with a club option for 2013, making him an extremely hot commodity. Leaving the lowly Pads would surely enhance his fantasy value, right? Maybe. While the win total should increase, the peripherals could take a hit with the move away from Petco. Check out these splits and you’ll see what I mean.
JAKE PEAVY STATS (2005-2008)
Home (65 Starts): 25-22 2.50 ERA 1.05 WHIP 25 home runs allowed in 439 IP
Road (55 Starts): 25-20 3.85 ERA 1.31 WHIP 45 home runs allowed in 334 IP
Don’t get me wrong. Jake’s still a fantasy ace. But counting on him to post better or even the same numbers we’ve come to expect might be asking too much.
The numbers are in and the
2009 List of 12 is attached, this year numbering 16 strong:
* Zack Greinke
* Rich Harden
* Felix Hernandez
* Ervin Santana
* Ian Snell
Take special note of the five guys marked with asterisks… they were “bonus” guys on last year’s list, having come close to 500 IP but not yet crossed the line, which was close enough that we thought they should be mentioned. Erik Bedard and John Patterson were also so included, and clearly Bedard would’ve warranted a high pick. But had you drafted the other five listed here, you would’ve had an extremely competitive rotation in just about any mixed league, even with Snell’s injury-plagued, disappointing season.
Of this year’s “true” qualifiers for List of 12 status, it’s easy to see who the stars are: postseason stars Cole Hamels and James Shields in particular, followed by 2008 disappointments Matt Cain and Justin Verlander. But keep an eye on a trio of lefties — Wandy Rodriguez, Paul Maholm and Scott Olsen – who could all produce strong value in 2009 at a bargain price. Wandy’s four-year MLB stats show almost a perfect trend towards a breakout season, so if you think 2008 was it, there may yet be room for a little more improvement.
As for the stats, everything should be pretty commonly understood, but note the last two columns, where I’ve included strikeout and walk rates as a percentage of total batters faced. Enjoy!
Like most of you, my patience is wearing real thin with this guy, but I’m willing to give him one more chance on the notion that the shoulder injury is largely to blame for his awful showing in 2008. I know he has DH-only eligibility in the majority of leagues, but you can do a lot worse than Hafner as a late-round flier. Am I being too optimistic? Here’s yesterday’s press release.
CLEVELAND, OH — The Cleveland Indians today announced DH TRAVIS HAFNER underwent successful surgery this afternoon on his right shoulder in Birmingham, AL. The 45-minute procedure was performed by DR. JAMES ANDREWS at St. Vincent Hospital in Birmingham.
The procedure entailed Dr. Andrews successfully performing an arthroscopic debridement (clean out) of Travis’ right shoulder joint. Travis will begin physical therapy at Progressive Field on Thursday and is expected to make a full recovery by the beginning of the 2009 Championship Season when it opens on April 6 in Arlington, Texas.
The 411 will be returning on Tuesday, November
11th and will air each Tuesday and Thursday from 11-11:30 am ET.
The news we were all so afraid to hear in May or June never came, and Albert Pujols put up another insane season… but the other shoe dropped today. Pujols underwent elbow surgery today but is expected to be ready for the start of spring training in 2009. Fantasy owners everywhere can breathe another sigh of relief that they dodged the bullet not just in 2008 but also for 2009! The complete text of the Cardinals’ release is below.
LOUIS, October 13,
2008 – The St. Louis Cardinals announced today that All-Star first
Pujols underwent surgery on his right elbow earlier today in a
procedure that included decompression and transposition of the ulnar nerve.
The surgery, which was performed by
Cardinals team physician Dr. George Paletta,
did not require reconstruction of the medial collateral ligament. Pujols
will begin his rehabilitation this week and is expected to make his recovery by
Pujols elected to undergo surgery
after consultation with Paletta and additional specialists, including
Pujols, 28, is a leading candidate
for National League MVP honors after batting .357 (2nd in N.L.) and
leading the Cardinals in homers (37) & RBI (116) this season.
The 411 will be returning on Tuesday, November
11th and will air each Tuesday and Thursday from 11-11:30 am ET.
Congrats to Cory for yet another second place finish in the 411 league. And to Johnny Archive for dominating all of us in the Ron Cey league. As GM of Round Trippers, I’m not too happy with my 6th place performance, but when you lose your first and second round picks (Crawford and Papi) for an extended period of time, it’s an uphill battle. Well, at least I lived up to my team name!
The 411 will be returning on Tuesday, November
11th and will air each Tuesday and Thursday from 11-11:30 am ET.
Hey folks, it’s been a while since I’ve posted and I’m sorry for that, and to make it up, here’s a little treat to keep you busy over the winter… attached is an Excel spreadsheet with
MLB park factors for the last three seasons combined, from 2006-2008.
If you’re curious about the methodology, please refer back to the post from last March when we first provided park factors for 2005-2007.
Interesting factoid: Coors Field (below) is pretty clearly still the best “hitter’s park” in baseball, but it’s
no longer the best home run park; that honor goes to either U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago or Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Stock up on those White Sox and Reds in four-category leagues!
I’ll try to post the 2009 List of 12 in the next week or so but hopefully this will all entertain you in the meantime. Enjoy the postseason!
Your friend in 411,
***The 411 will be returning on Tuesday, November
11th and will air each Tuesday and Thursday from 11-11:30 am ET. Now on to the chat…
Cory: Hey folks, it’s Cory… post your questions and we’ll get this puppy rolling… Sterno will join me for the first half of the chat and then SIano will step in for the rest
bjwranger1: Cory, any preview of the list of 12 for 2009? What do you think of Sean Gallagher in Oakland?
Cory: Look for the 2009 list of 12 sometime next week! As for Gallagher, he should have some value in AL only leagues but I don’t think he’s a target in mixed leagues… limited upside
bjwranger1: I have both Doumit and Iannetta in a keeper league. Can only keep one. Who do I deal? Who has more upside for 09? Thanks!
Cory: They are very close in value but I think Iannetta has to have the edge thanks to Coors… see if you can deal Doumit, who hit .320 this year and should have plenty of value
SmokeNhalo: What’s up guys? It’s my first time joining one of your chats. I had a halo question. Do you think there’s a chance Vlad bounces back and becomes a top 20 OF again? Or will the decline continue?
Cory: He’s certainly finishing strong, so he could crack the top 20 again, but the decline in his speed in particular hurts his value compared to some of the other up-and-comers at the position
JaninGlasgow: Guys, catcher question. What about Brian McCann for next season. He seemed to get lost this season. Sterno Great job hosting and Siano and Schwartz for the analysis.
Cory: McCann will be a top 3-4 catcher again, at worst, and should be good for another .290-25-90 season… I’d still take Martin over him, and probably Mauer too given how he’s bounced back this year
Casey: Jan….thanks so much — appreciate that. To me, McCann is only underrated because he’s a quiet player who this year played for a quiet team overall in ATL — I expect more of the same from him year after year — and I think he gives little risk in a Draft in ’09.
csbr8_2: How do you like Gallardo for 2009? I think he could well fly under the radar in drafts next year.
Cory: He’s got great upside and should be healthy… but as with outfield, SP is so deep that it’s tough to pick him over so many other good young pitchers who were 100% healthy this season, ie., Billingsley, Volquez, Lester, Greinke, etc.
Casey: I really like Gallardo’s stuff but I would be cautious how high I drafted him because their still isnt really a large enough sample for me to trust taking him over a guy who Ive sene perform well throughout ’08.
swagmanjay: So, do you guys know your microphone is left on during commercial breaks?
Cory: They’re not supposed to be, although we suppose this does create more material for the “411 Uncut” edition!
Casey: Come on man….you dont want to hear us talk trash to each other during breaks? You are COMPLETELY missing out!
aubs6: Hey, I have a big keeper dilema. I am in a 14 team h2h league with ops and k/9 and we get to keep 5. I already have 4 lock down keepers in Arod, Sizemore, Pujols, and Kinsler but I cannot figure out my 5th. I have to chose between R. Martin and Kemp. I
Cory: No need to post your question four times, we’ll answer.
Cory: I would keep Kemp… even though Martin offers the edge in position scarcity, Kemp looks like a strong bet to go .290-20-80-35 at least next year, and could exceed that with even a little improvement in his strike zone judgment. Martin has a ton of value too though, so you should be looking trade here to see if you can turn Kemp AND Martin into, say, Wright.
Casey: Have you noticed EVERY time Cory talks about this philosophy of dealing keepers to move for a better one, that he uses Wright as the end game. Check the archives!
Casey: I think the important thing to remember is that while this is probably a down year for Russell Martin, that he is still never going to put up the numbers Kemp will in my opinion — so unless youre hell bent on having a top backstop, Id keep Matt here.
todd2008: Who would be your top 12 in next years draft in a standard 5X5 league?
Cory: The top five will almost certainly be A-Rod, Reyes, Hanley, Wright and Sizemore. Holliday and Utley will be right behind them, but after that it opens up to a group of about 6-8 guys who could fill out the first round.
Casey: I think that my boy Jose has overtaken Hanley at number two — thats the first point. Beyond that I agree with Cory and am specifically interested in seeing how high a guy like Ian Kinsler will go. He STILL to me hasnt reached his full fantasy potential
aubs6: My bad, Cory, I’m in a hurry. Great season guys and I finally won the championship this year. thanks for the help!
Cory: It’s all good. Flags fly forever!
JaninGlasgow: What about Sterno’s first half man crush in Parra. What is he expected to do next season?
Casey: I was right about a number of guys this year — this was NOT one of them unfortunately. Only in spurts did we see the stuff that I was so excited about. I think next year Parra is definitely a risk, but still has that ceiling that will draw some people into drafting him at a value he doesnt deserve. Be careful with him – but if he falls to you in a good spot — why not — I still buy his upseide
Cory: Let’s be fair here too… Parra will only be 26 next season, averaged about 7.9 K/9 this year and gets a ton of ground balls, so with some improvement in his walk rate and stamina, he could be a good low-cost breakout candidate.
jarchive: Hey Guys, grats on another year! Even if I wasn’t a fan of some of the changes, you guys are still the best. What do you think of K-Rod for next year? Primed for a huge drop off? P.S. I lead the Ron Cey League by 12 points with 3 days to go!
Cory: No doubt K-Rod will drop off next year, simply because he’s not going to get 62+ saves again. But his strikeout rate bounced back some in the second half so I think he’ll still be a top-5 closer along with Mariano, Papelbon, Nathan and — yep — Soria.
geoff73: What’s J Bruces upside next year compared with C Granderson?
Casey: I think people expected Jay Bruce to be Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria and jump out of the gates with ALl-Star quality on the field…and while we didnt see that, I think we still are watching a guy with the ability to be a fantasy stud. That said, I STILL go with Granderson here personally because I’ve got the track record and the speed on my side. And I would rather in that spot take a guy I trust, despite what Bruce “May” do in 09
Cory: Gotta agree with my man Sterno here. Bruce has big upside and is a reasonable bet to hit ~30 homers next year, but we haven’t seen a ton of speed yet or the ability to hit for a high average. Those things may come in time but Granderson is a legit .300-20-20 guy right now who will score ~100 runs too, so he has to go ahead of Bruce in non-keeper drafts. Maybe in keeper leagues, too… not like he’s an old man.
Gerricus: Hey guys, what do you expect from A. Gordon and C. Jackson next season and who’ll be Arizona’s first baseman next season? Jackson, Dunn (if they resign him)?
Casey: I am not the biggest Conor Jackson fan and never have been. To me he’s what I categorize as a “nice player” who just isn’t going to have a power jump that some people expect despite how big a guy he is physically. As for Gordon, the jury is still out. I still claim that he’s got the goods to be a big-time player and maybe like we’ve seen with so many others — now that the expectations have subsided and the adjustment period in his career is over — we FINALLY see the guy we expected.
Cory: I’d take Gordon over Jackson 100 times out of 100. Even though this wasn’t a breakout year for Gordon, check the stats… big improvements in his walk rate and isolated power, although the strikeout rate is still a probl
em. He’ll only be 25 next season, too, so major upside is still there. I’m not selling short on him.
Casey: All right people — I gotta jet to other duties — getting “pipped” by Siano here. I just wanted to say whole heartedly how much fun I have had with all of you this season, and that I am very thankful for so many notes and letters to me opening arms to my addition to the show.
Halos14: Would you consider the Angels the favorites to win the AL championship?
Cory: The Angels and Cubs look like the best teams from 1-25 in each league, but as they say, once you get into the postseason everyone starts from 0-0. Don’t rule out any of these teams, they’ll all have earned their spot.
Siano: I think in order to be the champs you have to beat the champ. Red Sox are the favorites to me. By the way Cory didn’t make that up Bret the Hitman Hart did.
SmokeNhalo: What do you think Brandon Wood’s value is for next year? it seems like he’s in position to get a starting job. He’s flashed a little pop that we’ve heard so much about.
Cory: I think he’ll be the Angels 3rd baseman next year if they don’t make a trade… Figgins seems to have worn out his welcome. Wherever Wood plays, he should be a watered down Troy Glaus: good power, even some speed, but a so-so average… something like .257-31-88 with 10 steals. Solid but not a superstar.
cozzolino: Guys, how do you handle your roster for Monday/Tuesday’s possible Tie Breaker Games since all 3 of my leagues may be decided by an RBI, RUN, or W? Moves you make or anticipate making? Thanks…NS
Siano: I’d start grabbing guys at the latest once Sunday’s games start. If you are done with your innings you can actually start picking potential players up now and cut all your arms.
Cory: Zack from Philly won a share of the 411 listener league title last year by picking up everyone who was available in the Rockies-Padres game… they were mostly a bunch of benchies, but it’s the Tony Campbell rule: there are going to be an average of 9 runs in every MLB game, someone has to score them!
cozzolino: Hey Guys, What do you think about these Sunday starts: Lohse vs CIN, Baek vs. PIT, Outman @ SEA, and Jurrjens @ HOU? Thanks…Neighbor Steve
Cory: I rank them Lohse, Jurrjens, Baek and Outman. Jurrjens is fading in the 2nd half but he’s worth a gamble one more time.
JaninGlasgow: Who in the minors should i have my radar locked on to that has a decent shot of making it to the majors for next season in for a keeper league?
Siano: You know we never saw this year? McCutchen, Wieters and Rasmus so those definitely head the list with an eye on LaPorta as well but since he played for Team USA it hurt him for September. By the way Kennedy and Hughes rumored to be going to Arizona Fall League.
Cory: It’s also important to remember all of the young prospects who DIDN’T excel this year, and don’t given up on them too quicky, guys like Pearce, Gio Gonzalez, even Phil Hughes. Not every young player becomes a star right away so these guys are great late-round gambles.
volcanoele: Hey guys, I’m in a 20 team 7×7 with OPS, hitters Ks, K/9, and holds, H2H, and I’ve virtually won the league. We keep 3 Major Leaguers and 3 minor leaguers/rookies. I have Gregor Blanco so I am keeping him as a rookie.
Cory: This sounds like a deep league but Blanco doesn’t do much for me… only 13 steals despite playing over 140 games, and obviously he’s not going to give you any power. Who else ya got?
Siano: The questions seem to be winding down and we may have to wrap up by about 12:30, so if you have any last-minute questions, get ’em in now!
volcanoele: Adam Miller and Pablo Sandoval ((I traded away Kuroda and Kennedy early on)), and on the Minor League wire there are guys like Sandoval, Burriss, Barnese, etc.
Cory: I’d rather keep Burriss over Blanco… maybe not as good a player in reality, but will steal a lot more and fills a tougher position (SS vs. OF). I am a BIG Pablo Sandoval fan, too.
Siano: Adam Miller was a guy I like a bunch this year and actually took him in reserve round of AL Tout. He just can’t stay healthy but his ceiling is very high and I think if you can make him very low risk then it’s worth a shot for next year.
geoff73: In a 5X5 keeper league Vanilla My keepers are Pujols, J Reyes, Lincecum but struggling with Granderson, Papelbon and Bruce for last 2 spots. You guys suggest drafting good CLoser early? Your thoughts keeping Granderson & Bruce over Papelbon?
Siano: I agree. Bruce is not a top 60 pick while Papelbon and Granderson are locks. No brianer to me. Now Cory will wax poetic about making a trade.
Cory: Classy guy. Gotta agree with everything he said.
Siano: OK kids I gotta run but a heads up on some things. Look for the show twice a week (hopefully) starting sometime in November and keep an eye on the blog fantasy411.mlblogs.com also I will definitely be at ALCS so if I’m in your town holla at me. Thanks for a tremendous year!
Cory: Got time for one more, who wants it?
hamzen: Hi guys, This one should get a laugh. UK national just got into baseball last 2 years. I’m just completeing my first fantasy year, 7×7 15 keepers, 5 minor leaguers, can add 2 to next years roster. Need to know what the chances are for Byrd and Cruz next year, oh by the way the laughs are that I picked Martinez, Myers, Griffey, Perwez, Willingham and Jacobs this year
Cory: Paul Byrd? Juan Cruz? Wow. Gotta start somewhere but I wouldn’t make it with those guys.
Cory: That’s it for today, and puts a bow on top of the 2008 Fantasy 411 season. Thanks to everyone for your feedback, questions and contributions to the show! Enjoy the postseason and we’ll talk to you all winter long on the blog, on Facebook and on the show. Thanks!