Transcript from Final 411 Chat
***The 411 will be returning on Tuesday, November
11th and will air each Tuesday and Thursday from 11-11:30 am ET. Now on to the chat…
Cory: Hey folks, it’s Cory… post your questions and we’ll get this puppy rolling… Sterno will join me for the first half of the chat and then SIano will step in for the rest
bjwranger1: Cory, any preview of the list of 12 for 2009? What do you think of Sean Gallagher in Oakland?
Cory: Look for the 2009 list of 12 sometime next week! As for Gallagher, he should have some value in AL only leagues but I don’t think he’s a target in mixed leagues… limited upside
bjwranger1: I have both Doumit and Iannetta in a keeper league. Can only keep one. Who do I deal? Who has more upside for 09? Thanks!
Cory: They are very close in value but I think Iannetta has to have the edge thanks to Coors… see if you can deal Doumit, who hit .320 this year and should have plenty of value
SmokeNhalo: What’s up guys? It’s my first time joining one of your chats. I had a halo question. Do you think there’s a chance Vlad bounces back and becomes a top 20 OF again? Or will the decline continue?
Cory: He’s certainly finishing strong, so he could crack the top 20 again, but the decline in his speed in particular hurts his value compared to some of the other up-and-comers at the position
JaninGlasgow: Guys, catcher question. What about Brian McCann for next season. He seemed to get lost this season. Sterno Great job hosting and Siano and Schwartz for the analysis.
Cory: McCann will be a top 3-4 catcher again, at worst, and should be good for another .290-25-90 season… I’d still take Martin over him, and probably Mauer too given how he’s bounced back this year
Casey: Jan….thanks so much — appreciate that. To me, McCann is only underrated because he’s a quiet player who this year played for a quiet team overall in ATL — I expect more of the same from him year after year — and I think he gives little risk in a Draft in ’09.
csbr8_2: How do you like Gallardo for 2009? I think he could well fly under the radar in drafts next year.
Cory: He’s got great upside and should be healthy… but as with outfield, SP is so deep that it’s tough to pick him over so many other good young pitchers who were 100% healthy this season, ie., Billingsley, Volquez, Lester, Greinke, etc.
Casey: I really like Gallardo’s stuff but I would be cautious how high I drafted him because their still isnt really a large enough sample for me to trust taking him over a guy who Ive sene perform well throughout ’08.
swagmanjay: So, do you guys know your microphone is left on during commercial breaks?
Cory: They’re not supposed to be, although we suppose this does create more material for the “411 Uncut” edition!
Casey: Come on man….you dont want to hear us talk trash to each other during breaks? You are COMPLETELY missing out!
aubs6: Hey, I have a big keeper dilema. I am in a 14 team h2h league with ops and k/9 and we get to keep 5. I already have 4 lock down keepers in Arod, Sizemore, Pujols, and Kinsler but I cannot figure out my 5th. I have to chose between R. Martin and Kemp. I
Cory: No need to post your question four times, we’ll answer.
Cory: I would keep Kemp… even though Martin offers the edge in position scarcity, Kemp looks like a strong bet to go .290-20-80-35 at least next year, and could exceed that with even a little improvement in his strike zone judgment. Martin has a ton of value too though, so you should be looking trade here to see if you can turn Kemp AND Martin into, say, Wright.
Casey: Have you noticed EVERY time Cory talks about this philosophy of dealing keepers to move for a better one, that he uses Wright as the end game. Check the archives!
Casey: I think the important thing to remember is that while this is probably a down year for Russell Martin, that he is still never going to put up the numbers Kemp will in my opinion — so unless youre hell bent on having a top backstop, Id keep Matt here.
todd2008: Who would be your top 12 in next years draft in a standard 5X5 league?
Cory: The top five will almost certainly be A-Rod, Reyes, Hanley, Wright and Sizemore. Holliday and Utley will be right behind them, but after that it opens up to a group of about 6-8 guys who could fill out the first round.
Casey: I think that my boy Jose has overtaken Hanley at number two — thats the first point. Beyond that I agree with Cory and am specifically interested in seeing how high a guy like Ian Kinsler will go. He STILL to me hasnt reached his full fantasy potential
aubs6: My bad, Cory, I’m in a hurry. Great season guys and I finally won the championship this year. thanks for the help!
Cory: It’s all good. Flags fly forever!
JaninGlasgow: What about Sterno’s first half man crush in Parra. What is he expected to do next season?
Casey: I was right about a number of guys this year — this was NOT one of them unfortunately. Only in spurts did we see the stuff that I was so excited about. I think next year Parra is definitely a risk, but still has that ceiling that will draw some people into drafting him at a value he doesnt deserve. Be careful with him – but if he falls to you in a good spot — why not — I still buy his upseide
Cory: Let’s be fair here too… Parra will only be 26 next season, averaged about 7.9 K/9 this year and gets a ton of ground balls, so with some improvement in his walk rate and stamina, he could be a good low-cost breakout candidate.
jarchive: Hey Guys, grats on another year! Even if I wasn’t a fan of some of the changes, you guys are still the best. What do you think of K-Rod for next year? Primed for a huge drop off? P.S. I lead the Ron Cey League by 12 points with 3 days to go!
Cory: No doubt K-Rod will drop off next year, simply because he’s not going to get 62+ saves again. But his strikeout rate bounced back some in the second half so I think he’ll still be a top-5 closer along with Mariano, Papelbon, Nathan and — yep — Soria.
geoff73: What’s J Bruces upside next year compared with C Granderson?
Casey: I think people expected Jay Bruce to be Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria and jump out of the gates with ALl-Star quality on the field…and while we didnt see that, I think we still are watching a guy with the ability to be a fantasy stud. That said, I STILL go with Granderson here personally because I’ve got the track record and the speed on my side. And I would rather in that spot take a guy I trust, despite what Bruce “May” do in 09
Cory: Gotta agree with my man Sterno here. Bruce has big upside and is a reasonable bet to hit ~30 homers next year, but we haven’t seen a ton of speed yet or the ability to hit for a high average. Those things may come in time but Granderson is a legit .300-20-20 guy right now who will score ~100 runs too, so he has to go ahead of Bruce in non-keeper drafts. Maybe in keeper leagues, too… not like he’s an old man.
Gerricus: Hey guys, what do you expect from A. Gordon and C. Jackson next season and who’ll be Arizona’s first baseman next season? Jackson, Dunn (if they resign him)?
Casey: I am not the biggest Conor Jackson fan and never have been. To me he’s what I categorize as a “nice player” who just isn’t going to have a power jump that some people expect despite how big a guy he is physically. As for Gordon, the jury is still out. I still claim that he’s got the goods to be a big-time player and maybe like we’ve seen with so many others — now that the expectations have subsided and the adjustment period in his career is over — we FINALLY see the guy we expected.
Cory: I’d take Gordon over Jackson 100 times out of 100. Even though this wasn’t a breakout year for Gordon, check the stats… big improvements in his walk rate and isolated power, although the strikeout rate is still a probl
em. He’ll only be 25 next season, too, so major upside is still there. I’m not selling short on him.
Casey: All right people — I gotta jet to other duties — getting “pipped” by Siano here. I just wanted to say whole heartedly how much fun I have had with all of you this season, and that I am very thankful for so many notes and letters to me opening arms to my addition to the show.
Halos14: Would you consider the Angels the favorites to win the AL championship?
Cory: The Angels and Cubs look like the best teams from 1-25 in each league, but as they say, once you get into the postseason everyone starts from 0-0. Don’t rule out any of these teams, they’ll all have earned their spot.
Siano: I think in order to be the champs you have to beat the champ. Red Sox are the favorites to me. By the way Cory didn’t make that up Bret the Hitman Hart did.
SmokeNhalo: What do you think Brandon Wood’s value is for next year? it seems like he’s in position to get a starting job. He’s flashed a little pop that we’ve heard so much about.
Cory: I think he’ll be the Angels 3rd baseman next year if they don’t make a trade… Figgins seems to have worn out his welcome. Wherever Wood plays, he should be a watered down Troy Glaus: good power, even some speed, but a so-so average… something like .257-31-88 with 10 steals. Solid but not a superstar.
cozzolino: Guys, how do you handle your roster for Monday/Tuesday’s possible Tie Breaker Games since all 3 of my leagues may be decided by an RBI, RUN, or W? Moves you make or anticipate making? Thanks…NS
Siano: I’d start grabbing guys at the latest once Sunday’s games start. If you are done with your innings you can actually start picking potential players up now and cut all your arms.
Cory: Zack from Philly won a share of the 411 listener league title last year by picking up everyone who was available in the Rockies-Padres game… they were mostly a bunch of benchies, but it’s the Tony Campbell rule: there are going to be an average of 9 runs in every MLB game, someone has to score them!
cozzolino: Hey Guys, What do you think about these Sunday starts: Lohse vs CIN, Baek vs. PIT, Outman @ SEA, and Jurrjens @ HOU? Thanks…Neighbor Steve
Cory: I rank them Lohse, Jurrjens, Baek and Outman. Jurrjens is fading in the 2nd half but he’s worth a gamble one more time.
JaninGlasgow: Who in the minors should i have my radar locked on to that has a decent shot of making it to the majors for next season in for a keeper league?
Siano: You know we never saw this year? McCutchen, Wieters and Rasmus so those definitely head the list with an eye on LaPorta as well but since he played for Team USA it hurt him for September. By the way Kennedy and Hughes rumored to be going to Arizona Fall League.
Cory: It’s also important to remember all of the young prospects who DIDN’T excel this year, and don’t given up on them too quicky, guys like Pearce, Gio Gonzalez, even Phil Hughes. Not every young player becomes a star right away so these guys are great late-round gambles.
volcanoele: Hey guys, I’m in a 20 team 7×7 with OPS, hitters Ks, K/9, and holds, H2H, and I’ve virtually won the league. We keep 3 Major Leaguers and 3 minor leaguers/rookies. I have Gregor Blanco so I am keeping him as a rookie.
Cory: This sounds like a deep league but Blanco doesn’t do much for me… only 13 steals despite playing over 140 games, and obviously he’s not going to give you any power. Who else ya got?
Siano: The questions seem to be winding down and we may have to wrap up by about 12:30, so if you have any last-minute questions, get ’em in now!
volcanoele: Adam Miller and Pablo Sandoval ((I traded away Kuroda and Kennedy early on)), and on the Minor League wire there are guys like Sandoval, Burriss, Barnese, etc.
Cory: I’d rather keep Burriss over Blanco… maybe not as good a player in reality, but will steal a lot more and fills a tougher position (SS vs. OF). I am a BIG Pablo Sandoval fan, too.
Siano: Adam Miller was a guy I like a bunch this year and actually took him in reserve round of AL Tout. He just can’t stay healthy but his ceiling is very high and I think if you can make him very low risk then it’s worth a shot for next year.
geoff73: In a 5X5 keeper league Vanilla My keepers are Pujols, J Reyes, Lincecum but struggling with Granderson, Papelbon and Bruce for last 2 spots. You guys suggest drafting good CLoser early? Your thoughts keeping Granderson & Bruce over Papelbon?
Siano: I agree. Bruce is not a top 60 pick while Papelbon and Granderson are locks. No brianer to me. Now Cory will wax poetic about making a trade.
Cory: Classy guy. Gotta agree with everything he said.
Siano: OK kids I gotta run but a heads up on some things. Look for the show twice a week (hopefully) starting sometime in November and keep an eye on the blog fantasy411.mlblogs.com also I will definitely be at ALCS so if I’m in your town holla at me. Thanks for a tremendous year!
Cory: Got time for one more, who wants it?
hamzen: Hi guys, This one should get a laugh. UK national just got into baseball last 2 years. I’m just completeing my first fantasy year, 7×7 15 keepers, 5 minor leaguers, can add 2 to next years roster. Need to know what the chances are for Byrd and Cruz next year, oh by the way the laughs are that I picked Martinez, Myers, Griffey, Perwez, Willingham and Jacobs this year
Cory: Paul Byrd? Juan Cruz? Wow. Gotta start somewhere but I wouldn’t make it with those guys.
Cory: That’s it for today, and puts a bow on top of the 2008 Fantasy 411 season. Thanks to everyone for your feedback, questions and contributions to the show! Enjoy the postseason and we’ll talk to you all winter long on the blog, on Facebook and on the show. Thanks!