2009 List of 12

The numbers are in and the
2009 List of 12 is attached, this year numbering 16 strong:


Brandon Backe

Matt Cain

Brandon Duckworth

Zach Duke

* Zack Greinke

Cole Hamels

* Rich Harden

* Felix Hernandez

Paul Maholm

Scott Olsen

Wandy Rodriguez

Kirk Saarloos

* Ervin Santana

James Shields

* Ian Snell

Justin Verlander


Take special note of the five guys marked with asterisks… they were “bonus” guys on last year’s list, having come close to 500 IP but not yet crossed the line, which was close enough that we thought they should be mentioned. Erik Bedard and John Patterson were also so included, and clearly Bedard would’ve warranted a high pick. But had you drafted the other five listed here, you would’ve had an extremely competitive rotation in just about any mixed league, even with Snell’s injury-plagued, disappointing season.



Of this year’s “true” qualifiers for List of 12 status, it’s easy to see who the stars are: postseason stars Cole Hamels and James Shields in particular, followed by 2008 disappointments Matt Cain and Justin Verlander. But keep an eye on a trio of lefties — Wandy Rodriguez, Paul Maholm and Scott Olsen – who could all produce strong value in 2009 at a bargain price. Wandy’s four-year MLB stats show almost a perfect trend towards a breakout season, so if you think 2008 was it, there may yet be room for a little more improvement.


As for the stats, everything should be pretty commonly understood, but note the last two columns, where I’ve included strikeout and walk rates as a percentage of total batters faced. Enjoy!





Does anyone else feel like Kirk Saarloos has been in baseball way too long to be on the List of 12?

I do.

cory –

thanks, love these spreadsheets. I know last year you posted your player rankings “NFBC Draft” with player IDs, Top 345, and their proj stats. Do you plan on posting this for 2009? I loved it for using it to project our leagues draft class and plan for my own.

Main question, since I am not asking you to do the leg work, where would I find the Player IDs you have associated with each player?

The Lo12, Proj Stats draft scenarios, MLB Park Factors, are amazing sheets that have helped me formulate a 3rd, 1st, 7th, and 2nd (sat Burrell and played Dukes the last week of the season costing me my 2nd Championship) over the last 4 seasons.

Any info you can provide would be appreciated.

– BDH in DC

Backe, Duckworth, Maholm, Olsen, Rodriquez and Snell, scare the begeebers out of me……maybe I roll the dice on one of these…but it will be through gritted teeth!

– BDH in DC

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