The Real Fantasy League

Ever wonder how the actual MLB clubs would fare if they played each other in a 30 team 5×5 fantasy league?  I did, and decided to go through the long process of figuring it all out.  Using the team stats from the 2008 regular season, I went ahead and assigned roto point values for each of the five hitting and five pitching categories.  How different are these fantasy standings from the real ones?  Are the standard 10 categories accurate measures in explaining a team’s performance on the field?  Below you’ll find the end of season fantasy standings broken down by division along with the roto point totals.  I’ve also attached the Excel spreadsheet so you can see all the raw data.

Team by team Rotisserie Stats.xls 

AL East

Red Sox      249.5
Rays           230.5
Yankees      208
Blue Jays    179.5
Orioles        112

AL Central

White Sox    198
Twins           187.5
Tigers          138.5
Indians        134
Royals         119

AL West

Angels       214.5
Rangers     160
Athletics     99.5
Mariners     85

NL East

Phillies       218
Mets          209.5
Marlins      150
Braves      103.5
Nationals   54.5

NL Central

Cubs         258
Brewers     200
Astros       166
Cardinals   164.5
Reds         115
Pirates       65

NL West

Dodgers     174
D-Backs     152
Rockies      126
Giants        111.5
Padres        67

I expected it to be close, but not quite to this extent!  The only differences that have  postseason implications is the Red Sox winning the AL East over the Rays with Tampa being the wildcard and the Mets edging out the Brewers for the NL wildcard.  Also, the 100-win Angels are far from the best team in baseball, trailing the Red Sox, Rays, and Phillies while barely squeaking by the Yankees and Mets.  Instead, the Cubbies take home the title.

While there are certainly other fantasy relevant stats that could serve as more effective predictors, these 10 seem to do just fine.  However, there’s one pretty obvious problem.  The playoffs aren’t included here, so the “Curse of the Billy Goat” doesn’t apply!  Only in fantasy can the Cubs actually win a championship.

Feel free to post your feedback.  Looking forward to hearing from all of 411 Nation.

Zach Steinhorn    

6 Comments

Nice job Zach, thank you.
Zack-Philly

Hey Zach;

Very nice. It just shows that fantasy baseball is not that far removed from the real game.

Jeff in Minny

That is friggin awesome! Nice work, a very interesting way to look at things.
Charlie S

Zach – you are the man! Thanks very much for this.

Mike at the beach

Zach, you have too much time on your hands. Still, good job.

gys0023, when you’re really determined to learn something, you make the time! Well worth it.

Zach

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