The curse of the K?????

Burnett is big news here on the east coast not only because the Yankees will be players but because the Red Sox seem interested in making it a bidding war. click here for story

 

It got me thinking since I personally wouldn’t want a guy on my team who has been on the DL 9 times since 2000 what is the big deal about Burnett? Is it the electric stuff? Ok I can see that, is it the fact he owned the Sox and Yanks last year? I say so what. Or is it the K? Then I realized I can’t do anything about it so why not just talk fantasy value for Burnett since I can surely make sure I don’t have him on my team regardless of what uniform he wears.

 


aj.jpgSince Burnett led the league in K’s this year he is obviously on the fantasy radar. I then asked myself who has led their respective leagues in K’s the past five years and what did they do the year after that?

This info below is all predicated on agreeing that it takes more effort to strike a guy out then to pitch to contact. It may not help your ERA (just ask Carlos Silva) but it may help your longevity (just ask Tom Glavine).

 

Thanks to Zach I am able to show you the league leader in K’s from the past five years and what they did the following year with some comments.

 

2004

NL:  Johnson  290

In 2005 the Unit heads to the Bronx pushes a cameraman on day one and finishes up with a decent record of 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA and 211 K’s in 225.2 IP. Good year but definitely not the previous season numbers. “Pressure” of NY? AL Lineups?

AL:  Santana  265

Johan is insane and the one person who made this study less fun. He went 16-7 with a 2.87 ERA and 238 in 231.2.

 

2005

NL:  Peavy  216

Peavy had a terrible year after leading league in K’s in 05′ He went 11-14 with a disgusting 4.09 for an NL pitcher in Petco but did have 215 K’s in 202.1 IP. We will see this with Peavy again shortly.

AL:  Santana  238

See above. Gotta love it.

 

 

2006

NL:  Harang  216

Harangatang did well in 07′ by going 16-6 and striking out 218 in 231.2. However we all know what happened this year when he stunk up the joint in a bad bad way. 6 wins and a 4.78 ERA. Did Harang buck the tend well yeah but has it “caught up” to him? We’ll find out in 09′. I sure hope not. 

AL:  Santana  245

Moving along.

 

 

2007

NL:  Peavy  240

Peavy regains form in 2007 and then goes 10-11 on granted a bad Padres team and has a very solid 2.85 ERA with 166 K’s in 173.2 IP. This is more about the IP then anything else. They were down due to time spent on the DL with elbow problems so again was all the effort needed to rack up those K’s? click here for story

AL:  Kazmir  239

Kaz is very interesting to this whole posting. We always knew about his strikeout potential and it arrived statistically but I think most people wondered what would happen next. What did happen next was Kaz started 08′ on the DL and then came back to have a dominant May as he went 5-1 with a 1.22 ERA and with 38 K’s in 37 IP. Still I felt he could not keep it up, I sold high and ended up being right as he only had seven more wins total after May and months where his ERA was over four and a September ERA over five. He continued to deliver on the K’s but it was like he was a one category guy.

 

 

2008

NL:  Lincecum  265

Everyone may be right this guy may just be a freak and this is the beginning of something very special. The Giants are obviously taking it seriously I mean they just gave Affleldt eight million. Looking forward to late night games when Lincecum is on the bump.

AL:  Burnett  231 

Buyer beware that’s all I’m saying.

 

-Siano

 

3 Comments

On other matters, Wolff said he’s inclined to keep newly acquired outfielder Matt Holliday for the entire season, even if he becomes a free agent next November and leaves the A’s.

“I’d rather take the two draft choices than lose him in the middle of the season,” Wolff said.

I see Burnett as a dangerous option. He had a great career season after many injury-riddled campaigns where people were constantly waiting for him to live up to his potential. A fantasy disaster waiting to happen. I feel the same way about Dempster. Again, a career year, but a safer bet than Burnett with far less injury risk. Of course, I favor hitters and closers much more than starters anyway, and I realize that not everyone buys that strategy, but I sense disappointment on the horizon for buyers of these guys.
Allan in San Antonio

Nice work Siano. Appreciate the insight and research. (Shout out to Zach too)

BDH

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