January 2009

Updated Mock Draft (through Round 10)

Alex Cushing – MLB.com

Joe Sheehan – Baseball Prospectus
Jeff Erickson – Rotowire.com
Mike Siano – MLB.com
Jeffrey Ma – Citizen Sports   
                                                                                                                        
Jason Collette – Fanball.com
Nando Di Fino / Tom Herrera  – WSJ.com / AOL.com
Will Carroll – Baseball Prospectus
Cory Schwartz – MLB.com
Lawr Michaels – CREATiVESPORTS.com
Zach Steinhorn – MLB.com
Tony Cincotta – Fantasypros911.com

R1 P1    Alex Cushing      Ramirez, Hanley
R1 P2    Joe Sheehan      Reyes, Jose
R1 P3    Jeff Erickson       Rodriguez, Alex
R1 P4    Mike Siano         Pujols, Albert
R1 P5    Jeffrey Ma         Wright, David
R1 P6    Jason Collette   Sizemore, Grady
R1 P7    Nando Di Fino    Howard, Ryan
R1 P8    Will Carroll         Upton, B.J.
R1 P9    Cory Schwartz   Braun, Ryan
R1 P10  Lawr Michaels    Utley, Chase
R1 P11  Zach Steinhorn  Rollins, Jimmy
R1 P12  Tony Cincotta    Cabrera, Miguel

R2 P1   Tony Cincotta    Hamilton, Josh
R2 P2   Zach Steinhorn  Teixeira, Mark
R2 P3   Lawr Michaels    Morneau, Justin
R2 P4   Cory Schwartz   Kinsler, Ian
R2 P5   Will Carroll         Santana, Johan
R2 P6   Nando Di Fino    Hamels, Cole
R2 P7   Jason Collette   Longoria, Evan
R2 P8   Jeffrey Ma         Lincecum, Tim
R2 P9   Mike Siano        Beltran, Carlos
R2 P10  Jeff Erickson    Holliday, Matt
R2 P11  Joe Sheehan   Soriano, Alfonso
R2 P12  Alex Cushing   Lee, Carlos

R3 P1    Alex Cushing     Ramirez, Manny                                                     
R3 P2    Joe Sheehan     Kemp, Matt
R3 P3    Jeff Erickson      Suzuki, Ichiro
R3 P4    Mike Siano        Pedroia, Dustin
R3 P5    Jeffrey Ma         Sabathia, CC
R3 P6    Jason Collette  Crawford, Carl
R3 P7    Nando Di Fino   Markakis, Nick
R3 P8    Will Carroll        Berkman, Lance
R3 P9    Cory Schwartz  Roberts, Brian
R3 P10  Lawr Michaels   Youkilis, Kevin
R3 P11  Zach Steinhorn  Phillips, Brandon
R3 P12  Tony Cincotta    Ramirez, Aramis

R4 P1    Tony Cincotta      Ramirez, Alexei
R4 P2    Zach Steinhorn    Bay, Jason
R4 P3    Lawr Michaels     Drew, Stephen
R4 P4    Cory Schwartz    Fielder, Prince
R4 P5    Will Carroll          McCann, Brian
R4 P6    Nando Di Fino     Rios, Alex
R4 P7    Jason Collette    Martin, Russell
R4 P8    Jeffrey Ma          Ellsbury, Jacoby
R4 P9    Mike Siano         Quentin, Carlos
R4 P10  Jeff Erickson      Webb, Brandon
R4 P11  Joe Sheehan     Peavy, Jake
R4 P12  Alex Cushing     Ortiz, David

R5 P1     Alex Cushing      Granderson, Curtis
R5 P2     Joe Sheehan      Mauer, Joe
R5 P3     Jeff Erickson       Soto, Geovany
R5 P4     Mike Siano         Papelbon, Jonathan
R5 P5     Jeffrey Ma          Hart, Corey
R5 P6     Jason Collette   Gonzalez, Adrian
R5 P7     Nando Di Fino   Guerrero, Vladimir
R5 P8     Will Carroll        Jones, Chipper
R5 P9     Cory Schwartz  Victorino, Shane
R5 P10   Lawr Michaels   Haren, Dan
R5 P11   Zach Steinhorn Dunn, Adam
R5 P12   Tony Cincotta   McLouth, Nate

R6 P1    Tony Cincotta      Rodriguez, Francisco
R6 P2    Zach Steinhorn    Nathan, Joe
R6 P3    Lawr Michaels      Billingsley, Chad
R6 P4    Cory Schwartz     Rivera, Mariano
R6 P5    Will Carroll           Halladay, Roy
R6 P6    Nando Di Fino      Furcal, Rafael
R6 P7    Jason Collette     Oswalt, Roy
R6 P8    Jeffrey Ma           Lidge, Brad
R6 P9    Mike Siano         Abreu, Bobby
R6 P10  Jeff Erickson      Davis, Chris
R6 P11  Joe Sheehan     Hernandez, Felix
R6 P12  Alex Cushing     Soria, Joakim

R7 P1      Alex Cushing       Martinez, Victor           
R7 P2     Joe Sheehan        Lackey, John    
R7 P3     Jeff Erickson         Tulowitzki, Troy
R7 P4     Mike Siano           Young, Michael         
R7 P5     Jeffrey Ma            Liriano, Francisco    
R7 P6   
  Jason Collette     Shields, James    
R7 P7     Nando Di Fino     Beckett, Josh
R7 P8     Will Carroll          Uggla, Dan    
R7 P9     Cory Schwartz    Pence, Hunter
R7 P10    Lawr Michaels    Napoli, Mike    
R7 P11    Zach Steinhorn  Matsuzaka, Daisuke         
R7 P12    Tony Cincotta     Hardy, J.J.
    
R8 P1     Tony Cincotta      Santana, Ervin    
R8 P2     Zach Steinhorn    Young, Chris      
R8 P3     Lawr Michaels     Ordonez, Magglio      
R8 P4     Cory Schwartz    Votto, Joey    
R8 P5     Will Carroll          Bruce, Jay    
R8 P6     Nando Di Fino     Kazmir, Scott    
R8 P7     Jason Collette    Valverde, Jose    
R8 P8     Jeffrey Ma           Iannetta, Chris
R8 P9     Mike Siano          Doumit, Ryan    
R8 P10   Jeff Erickson       Cano, Robinson    
R8 P11   Joe Sheehan      Pena, Carlos    
R8 P12   Alex Cushing      Lee, Derrek

R9 P1     Alex Cushing      Vazquez, Javier     
R9 P2     Joe Sheehan      Chamberlain, Joba        
R9 P3     Jeff Erickson       Lee, Cliff    
R9 P4     Mike Siano         Huff, Aubrey    
R9 P5     Jeffrey Ma          Marmol, Carlos    
R9 P6     Jason Collette    Jeter, Derek    
R9 P7     Nando Di Fino    Ludwick, Ryan    
R9 P8     Will Carroll        Maybin, Cameron
R9 P9     Cory Schwartz  Peralta, Jhonny
R9 P10   Lawr Michaels   Figgins, Chone    
R9 P11   Zach Steinhorn Damon, Johnny    
R9 P12   Tony Cincotta   Molina, Bengie    

R10 P1   Tony Cincotta    Burnett, A.J.    
R10 P2   Zach Steinhorn  Fuentes, Brian    
R10 P3   Lawr Michaels   Ryan, B.J.    
R10 P4   Cory Schwartz  Encarnacion, Edwin
R10 P5   Will Carroll        Milledge, Lastings
R10 P6   Nando Di Fino   Volquez, Edinson    
R10 P7   Jason Collette  Gordon, Alex    
R10 P8   Jeffrey Ma        Atkins, Garrett    
R10 P9   Mike Siano       Lester, Jon    
R10 P10 Jeff Erickson     Wood, Kerry    
R10 P11 Joe Sheehan    Kendrick, Howie
R10 P12 Alex Cushing    Zimmerman, Ryan

Fantasy 411 Q&A: Jan. 30, 2009

Zach here,

Siano is in a meeting so I figured I’d get things started.  We’re wrapping up the 12th round of our mock draft, and there are plenty of surprises.  I can’t say this enough, but I’ll say it again: be flexible!  Every draft plays out in its own unique way, due in large part to the mix of owners and their individual evaluations of certain players.  Don’t be afraid to alter your strategy to take advantage of certain situations.  I’ll be posting the most updated version of the results later on today.

And just a reminder that the MLB.com Fantasy Preview is set to come out Monday.  Brace yourselves…

AP080928044124.jpg

FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

Hey guys,

I have a keeper question.  12 team keeper league, 5X5 vanilla,
25 man rosters (12 pos starters 1C, MI ,CI, 4OF and ULT; pitchers 3 SP,
2 RP and 2 P) and we keep 4 with a additional keeper (late round) if
two kept after the 15th round. My keeper choices are Chase Utley (1st
round pick), Albert Pujols (2nd), Lance Berkman (4th), CC Sabathia
(5th), Cory Hart (18th), Josh Hamilton (20th). My late round keeper
possibilities (21 rounders) include C. Lee (pitcher), Lastings Milledge,
and Johnny Cueto. My feelings are Albert, Josh H, Cory H, and C. Lee
for sure. The last keeper is the toss up.  I am leaning towards CC in
the 5th.  But I hate keeping pitchers.

Thanks,

Brad in STL

Brad, I actually like
Berkman over CC. 5th round is nice value for CC, but you’re already
keeping one pitcher, and whenever the decision is a close one, always
lean towards the hitter. I understand that Berkman fell off a cliff in
the second half last year, but he’s still close to a lock for 30 and
100 with a .300 BA. Tough choice, but I think that Berkman has a better
chance than CC of matching or exceeding last year’s production.
Sabathia will be a very good pitcher in ’09, but remember that he’s
going back to the AL, and his incredible run with the Brewers will
likely never be duplicated.
  Expect a season closer to his ’07 Cy Young year as a best case scenario, and keep in mind that even the best pitchers, at least initially, tend to get rattled by the Yankee spotlight.

-Zach

Fantasy 411 Q&A: Jan. 29, 2009

Morning,

 

About to head in and tape the show with Petey Mac. Topics today will be Heilman to the Cubs , Garland to the D-backs and who is better for 09′ Quentin or Hamilton? As is now the norm the audio podcast will get up pretty close to noon ET and the video podcast and on demand clips will soon follow.

 

carlos-quentin.jpg 

 

                                                                                                                                
Don’t forget we have a chat on Tuesday at 2pm ET.

Let’s get to your questions.

-Siano

FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY                                                                                                                          

Keeper question. We get to keep 5. I am going to keep Brandon
Phillips,Adrian Gonzalez and Aramis Ramirez. I also have
Nathan, Soria, Halladay and Manny. I am leaning towards Nathan and
Halladay. I am afraid Manny is going to be the unhappy Manny. Your
thoughts?

Thanks for your time,                                                                                                  
Gary


Gary,

Even when Manny no happy Manny rake so I am going to say go Nathan
and Manny as your #4 and #5 keepers. I like your balance between
Gonzalez, Phillips and A. Ramirez and Manny complements that very well
since you need an OF.

Siano

Don’t fear the WBC!

We’ve been asked before, and I’m sure we’ll be asked again as the WBC draws closer before the games start this March, if we should be apprehensive about drafting pitchers who are slated to compete in the World Baseball Classic. Well, Fantasy 411 listener Bob in Cleveland took the initiative and dove into the numbers to find an objective answer, and his very informative findings were posted today on his site, fantasybaseballtrademarket.com.

I encourage everyone to read the fully story, but the conclusion speaks volumes: “I’ve not seen enough in these 2006 statistics to scare me away from WBC pitchers.”

g-sp-080331-johan-santana2-vmed-345p.widec.jpgBob cites several examples of pitchers who appeared in the 2006 WBC and went on to have strong seasons, such as Johan Santana (right), Javier Vazquez, Carlos ZambranoFrancisco Liriano and Daisuke Matsuzaka (in Japan). The most notable exception was Jake Peavy, who did not have a great season, but then again, starting pitchers are inherently risky so there’s no way of knowing if he wouldn’t have struggled that season anyway.

Anyway, go check out the complete story and then take a look at some of the pitchers on the provisional rosters for the 2009 WBC: several who appeared in 2006 will return in 2009, further evidence that the pitchers themselves (and their clubs) obviously aren’t worried enough to avoid the event.

The bottom line is, if you like pitchers, proceed as usual!

Thanks to Bob for the outstanding research.

–Cory

Fantasy 411 Q&A: Jan. 28, 2009

For those new to the 411 Blog today we wanted to welcome you and let you know that you can do one stop shopping here on this Blog. Want to hear or watch our latest podcast then scroll down on the right and head over to MLB.com’s podcast page or www.baseballchannel.tv. Want to read from some of the best writers in the country then click on any of our friends also down on the right. Scan our archives for mock draft results, our list of 12 pitchers to keep an eye on in 2009 and more. Most importantly welcome to the place where your fantasy questions get answered.

Wanted to give a shout out to Daria Debuono, Mark Newman and Jacob Wilson for the help with the look of the blog home page and our brand new panel on the main landing page for MLBlogs. I’m not smart enough to get this stuff done so I’m glad there are others that can.

Only a few more days until the Super Bowl and then to me the official start of the fantasy baseball season.

 

im_radio_schwartz.jpgSchwartz hooked me up with some sweet cheat sheets for AL only auction leagues and I have them printed out and in my bag ready to get going next week.

 

Let’s get to you guys………..Siano

Fantasy 411 Q&A: Jan. 27, 2009

Siano here,

Took a little time off but I am back and raring to go. Some random news, notes and observations.

 

The most important possession of the commuter is the headphone. Today some clown would not shut up behind me and I just stared at my bag up on the rack wondering if I should get up and get it, but instead choose to hope he either shut up or got off at the next stop. he did neither.

 

Is it me or is everyone on 24 extremely nosy? When the guy from Entourage is getting yelled at, Garafolo’s character is staring at both of them. That doesn’t happen!!!!! If you sit at a desk and your boss starts reaming a co-worker you just stare at your computer.

bauer.jpg

I did a 45 minute plus hit on Tony and Gabriel’s fantasypros911.com podcast show Sunday night. I had a great time and think I gave a better feel of what is going on is fantasy in baseball media for 2009. It’s not all based on stuff I’ve been told, but I think I’m pretty close. Check it out.

About to go in and shoot the show with Schwartz. We will talk Lyon/Rodney / Pettitte / Utley and break down rounds 7 + 8 of the mock draft we are in right now. Zach will post all 8 rounds later today in a separate post.

 

-Siano

The perils of auto-drafting

I did another “random” mock draft last night but showed up late for it and had my first five picks done by auto-draft. Out of the 4th spot I got:

1. A-Rod, 3B (nice!)

2. Ichiro, OF (not to my tastes but reasonable here)

3. Fielder, 1B (good power balance to Ichiro but not a pick I would’ve made)

Already you can see a problem developing… tremendous power and decent speed, but three straight picks from deeper positions. The next two picks though really show how auto-drafting can hurt:

ChipperJones.jpg4. Chipper, 3B (a third CI in four picks, guh!)

5. Papelbon, CL (I NEVER take the #1 closer)

Well folks from here it became an exercise in self-preservation to see what I could make out of this, and the projected standings suggest I didn’t do too badly. But I was playing defense early on as a result of the first five picks, which illustrates very clearly one of the major 411 tenets: the purpose of your early-round picks is to build the core of your team around which you will structure the rest of your draft strategy. These five picks did not allow me to fully execute my own strategy as I typically would.

Anyway, check out the complete draft pick-by-pick and let me know your thoughts!

Thanks,

Cory

 

Updated Mock Draft (through Round 8)

Alex Cushing – MLB.com

Joe Sheehan – Baseball Prospectus
Jeff Erickson – Rotowire.com
Mike Siano – MLB.com
Jeffrey Ma – Citizen Sports   
                                                                                                                        
Jason Collette – Fanball.com
Nando Di Fino / Tom Herrera  – WSJ.com / AOL.com
Will Carroll – Baseball Prospectus
Cory Schwartz – MLB.com
Lawr Michaels – CREATiVESPORTS.com
Zach Steinhorn – MLB.com
Tony Cincotta – Fantasypros911.com

R1 P1    Alex Cushing      Ramirez, Hanley
R1 P2    Joe Sheehan      Reyes, Jose
R1 P3    Jeff Erickson       Rodriguez, Alex
R1 P4    Mike Siano         Pujols, Albert
R1 P5    Jeffrey Ma         Wright, David
R1 P6    Jason Collette   Sizemore, Grady
R1 P7    Nando Di Fino    Howard, Ryan
R1 P8    Will Carroll         Upton, B.J.
R1 P9    Cory Schwartz   Braun, Ryan
R1 P10  Lawr Michaels    Utley, Chase
R1 P11  Zach Steinhorn  Rollins, Jimmy
R1 P12  Tony Cincotta    Cabrera, Miguel

R2 P1   Tony Cincotta    Hamilton, Josh
R2 P2   Zach Steinhorn  Teixeira, Mark
R2 P3   Lawr Michaels    Morneau, Justin
R2 P4   Cory Schwartz   Kinsler, Ian
R2 P5   Will Carroll         Santana, Johan
R2 P6   Nando Di Fino    Hamels, Cole
R2 P7   Jason Collette   Longoria, Evan
R2 P8   Jeffrey Ma         Lincecum, Tim
R2 P9   Mike Siano        Beltran, Carlos
R2 P10  Jeff Erickson    Holliday, Matt
R2 P11  Joe Sheehan   Soriano, Alfonso
R2 P12  Alex Cushing   Lee, Carlos

R3 P1    Alex Cushing     Ramirez, Manny                                                     
R3 P2    Joe Sheehan     Kemp, Matt
R3 P3    Jeff Erickson      Suzuki, Ichiro
R3 P4    Mike Siano        Pedroia, Dustin
R3 P5    Jeffrey Ma         Sabathia, CC
R3 P6    Jason Collette  Crawford, Carl
R3 P7    Nando Di Fino   Markakis, Nick
R3 P8    Will Carroll        Berkman, Lance
R3 P9    Cory Schwartz  Roberts, Brian
R3 P10  Lawr Michaels   Youkilis, Kevin
R3 P11  Zach Steinhorn  Phillips, Brandon
R3 P12  Tony Cincotta    Ramirez, Aramis

R4 P1    Tony Cincotta      Ramirez, Alexei
R4 P2    Zach Steinhorn    Bay, Jason
R4 P3    Lawr Michaels     Drew, Stephen
R4 P4    Cory Schwartz    Fielder, Prince
R4 P5    Will Carroll          McCann, Brian
R4 P6    Nando Di Fino     Rios, Alex
R4 P7    Jason Collette    Martin, Russell
R4 P8    Jeffrey Ma          Ellsbury, Jacoby
R4 P9    Mike Siano         Quentin, Carlos
R4 P10  Jeff Erickson      Webb, Brandon
R4 P11  Joe Sheehan     Peavy, Jake
R4 P12  Alex Cushing     Ortiz, David

R5 P1     Alex Cushing      Granderson, Curtis
R5 P2     Joe Sheehan      Mauer, Joe
R5 P3     Jeff Erickson       Soto, Geovany
R5 P4     Mike Siano         Papelbon, Jonathan
R5 P5     Jeffrey Ma          Hart, Corey
R5 P6     Jason Collette   Gonzalez, Adrian
R5 P7     Nando Di Fino   Guerrero, Vladimir
R5 P8     Will Carroll        Jones, Chipper
R5 P9     Cory Schwartz  Victorino, Shane
R5 P10   Lawr Michaels   Haren, Dan
R5 P11   Zach Steinhorn Dunn, Adam
R5 P12   Tony Cincotta   McLouth, Nate

R6 P1    Tony Cincotta      Rodriguez, Francisco
R6 P2    Zach Steinhorn    Nathan, Joe
R6 P3    Lawr Michaels      Billingsley, Chad
R6 P4    Cory Schwartz     Rivera, Mariano
R6 P5    Will Carroll           Halladay, Roy
R6 P6    Nando Di Fino      Furcal, Rafael
R6 P7    Jason Collette     Oswalt, Roy
R6 P8    Jeffrey Ma           Lidge, Brad
R6 P9    Mike Siano         Abreu, Bobby
R6 P10  Jeff Erickson      Davis, Chris
R6 P11  Joe Sheehan     Hernandez, Felix
R6 P12  Alex Cushing     Soria, Joakim

R7 P1      Alex Cushing       Martinez, Victor           
R7 P2     Joe Sheehan        Lackey, John    
R7 P3     Jeff Erickson         Tulowitzki, Troy
R7 P4     Mike Siano           Young, Michael         
R7 P5     Jeffrey Ma            Liriano, Francisco    
R7 P6   
  Jason Collette     Shields, James    
R7 P7     Nando Di Fino     Beckett, Josh
R7 P8     Will Carroll          Uggla, Dan    
R7 P9     Cory Schwartz    Pence, Hunter
R7 P10    Lawr Michaels    Napoli, Mike    
R7 P11    Zach Steinhorn  Matsuzaka, Daisuke         
R7 P12    Tony Cincotta     Hardy, J.J.
    
R8 P1     Tony Cincotta      Santana, Ervin    
R8 P2     Zach Steinhorn    Young, Chris      
R8 P3     Lawr Michaels     Ordonez, Magglio      
R8 P4     Cory Schwartz    Votto, Joey    
R8 P5     Will Carroll          Bruce, Jay    
R8 P6     Nando Di Fino     Kazmir, Scott    
R8 P7     Jason Collette    Valverde, Jose    
R8 P8     Jeffrey Ma           Iannetta, Chris
R8 P9     Mike Siano          Doumit, Ryan    
R8 P10   Jeff Erickson       Cano, Robinson    
R8 P11   Joe Sheehan      Pena, Carlos    
R8 P12   Alex Cushing      Lee, Derrek

Blog for Monday (1/26)

All right 411ers, you know the drill.  In the slowest mock draft ever, we’re in the middle of Round 9.  I’ll post the results through Round 8 later today.  I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that this draft WILL be over before Opening Day.

And don’t forget, the premiere 411 chat of 2009 is set for 2 pm ET on Tuesday, February 3rd.

-Zach

First “random” mock draft

Tony Cincotta from FantasyPros911.com asked me today how many mock drafts I do each year in preparation for the real thing, and my answer was, “a lot.” However, I’m really not interested in the exact team I come out with, because obviously that will vary greatly from draft to draft. The real value in mock drafts is the exercise of training yourself to be flexible and adaptable as each draft progresses and circumstances change in ways that you hadn’t (and perhaps couldn’t) anticipate.

The ultimate goal is to have yourself prepared for any scenario… what to do if guys you thought you would get don’t fall to you, and how to best handle it if something good falls into your lap. Think of each mock drafts as a series of flash cards (thanks Gabriel!)… by the time you sit down for your “real” drafts, you should have yourself trained to be ready for any outcome.

To that end, tonight I did my first “random” draft on Mock Draft Central… that is, just signed up for a random spot in a 15-team mixed draft with people I don’t know. (As an aside, if you don’t use mdc.com to prepare for your drafts, both by doing mock drafts and by studying ADP, you are wasting your time.) I always use my NFBC prep as a measuring stick for all my other drafts, and that’s what NFBC is… you sit down at a table with 14 strangers and see what happens. I drafted out of the fifth spot and after my first pick, nothing was really predictable. Here’s a link to the complete draft, pick-by-pick.

Lind.jpgIn all honesty, Aaron Rowand was an “oops” pick… I meant to put him on my “watch” list but hit “Draft” by accident. But, MDC.com did me a favor by sticking Kevin Kouzmanoff all the way at the bottom of the 3B list, so I was able to steal him in the 22nd round. Obviously this would not happen in a real draft but hey, I wouldn’t just blurt out “Aaron Rowand!” either!.

The post-draft projections have me in second place, which is no big surprise, because as in any other mixed draft I under-drafted SP’s, leaving me short in wins and K’s. But in every other category, I should be fine, and if young guys like Adam Lind (right), Ryan Spilborghs and Matt Lindstrom produce as expected, this could be a very solid fantasy team.

I’ll continue to post my “random” drafts as I do more, and I look forward to everyone’s feedback, good, bad or indifferent… don’t be afraid to criticize, I can take it, and if it will help me do better next time that will be even better!

–Cory

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