Fantasy 411 Q&A: Jan. 27, 2009

Siano here,

Took a little time off but I am back and raring to go. Some random news, notes and observations.

 

The most important possession of the commuter is the headphone. Today some clown would not shut up behind me and I just stared at my bag up on the rack wondering if I should get up and get it, but instead choose to hope he either shut up or got off at the next stop. he did neither.

 

Is it me or is everyone on 24 extremely nosy? When the guy from Entourage is getting yelled at, Garafolo’s character is staring at both of them. That doesn’t happen!!!!! If you sit at a desk and your boss starts reaming a co-worker you just stare at your computer.

bauer.jpg

I did a 45 minute plus hit on Tony and Gabriel’s fantasypros911.com podcast show Sunday night. I had a great time and think I gave a better feel of what is going on is fantasy in baseball media for 2009. It’s not all based on stuff I’ve been told, but I think I’m pretty close. Check it out.

About to go in and shoot the show with Schwartz. We will talk Lyon/Rodney / Pettitte / Utley and break down rounds 7 + 8 of the mock draft we are in right now. Zach will post all 8 rounds later today in a separate post.

 

-Siano

33 Comments

In case you’re looking for it, Rounds 7 and 8 of the mock draft were posted yesterday. Just scroll down a bit.

Zach

If Manny doesn’t return to LA that has to put Pierre in LF every day I would think. If this is the case, exactly where does that put Pierre’s value? He seems to be buried on every OF depth chart behind the likes of Chase Headley and Aaron Rowand as I type…

Pierre is always on my DO NOT DRAFT list, pure YPNM.

Anything… ANYTHING… I can get to stop the mockery of a season I had last year. I will keep reading this blog. Kudos to ya’ll.
–Jeff
http://redstatebluestate.mlblogs.com/

Nate,

Pierre is very close to what Dan calls him, but if you draft well you can survive with Pierre. He is a 4th OF and one category stud and won’t hurt your avg. (lifetime .300). I am not recommending him but think on the right kind of roster he can help. 40 steals is 40 steals.

Siano

Jeff,

bad things happen to good people. You a good person?

-Siano

In the old days, when he gave you the .300 BA and 100 runs to go along with the 65 steals, I used to like Pierre. But I’ve learned my lesson since. Get your steals from a combination of other guys. Pierre just hurts you in too many other areas. You wind up overpaying for power later on.

Zach

Anyone else remember the 6-week or so span when Pierre was productive last year? I know, 6 week runs are not a season made, but he actually helped me quite a bit in the Ron Cey Listener League last year. Excuse me while I try and extend my reign as league champ for as long as possible. heh
Also, I am expanding the Johnny Archive Invitational Leagues this year so check out my blog for more info if you want to be a part of an extremely competitive league. http://johnnyarchive.mlblogs.com/

-JA

Fellas, am I completely insane or is Nate McLouth waaaay overvalued? His current ADP puts him in round 4. Based on my player valuations, is he really that much different than what we can get from a Torii Hunter who is round 9 material? Why isn’t McLouth lumped in with other question mark guys like Chris Davis, Joey Votto, and Ryan Ludwick (Rounds 6-9)? Also, What do you think of these guys approaching .275/20/20: Justin Upton, Lastings Milledge. Eric Byrnes, Adam Jones, Fred Lewis (not 20/20 but 12-15/20?), Cameron Maybin, Shin-Soo Choo (more like 10-15 SB?), Coco Crisp.
Charlie Saponara

If Pierre was a full time player I could see having him on a roster if the league had a 5 OF starting roster…otherwise no.

btw someone mentioned the new MLB Front Office Manager the other day…it’s out now for PS3, xbox, and PC
http://www.2ksports.com/games/mlbmanager

Johnny Archive,

You basically just backed up what I was saying about Pierre, if drafted properly and put in a good surrounding roster he can help.

-Siano

sbyrne,

same thing. I said Pierre is a 4th OF. I think 5th OF are like 5th starters they are Monday Thursday guys and/or hot hands.

-Siano

Yeah, I mentioned it… I am hoping that one of the places in town here has it for PC and am going to stop by and pick it up on the way home. Anyone else interested in putting an online league together for PC??

I should have prefaced my Pierre question w/ I was thinking in terms of NL-only leagues. Where does a 2+ category outfielder like him fit?

Charlie

I’m with you brother. Check out our interview with jeffrey ma from last Thursday’s podcast we went in depth on McClouth if my memory serves me right. I’d like to hear Cory’s take on Nate. The Nate I know best is Nate Fisher from Six Feet Under only the greatest televison show ever.

-Siano

Nate,

Pierre in an NL only I would say has more value because 40 steals in a non mixed could be a difference maker being worth a possible handful of points. Again he will not hurt your average and has the ability to help in runs in the 75 to 85 range asssuming he gets the ab’s. He shouldn’t be highlighted on your cheat sheets but he shouldn’t be ignored is all I’m saying. Manny returns then it changes.

Siano

Hey guys,
I have a draft strategy question. I play in a 12 team 9×9 mixed H2H league. The extra categories are BB, SLG, H, and Ks for hitters and IP, L, ER, and QS for pitchers. Should I value closers a little less in this format? Any unique draft strategy that you would take with this league compared to a 5×5 roto? Thanks for the help!
Everett

Everett…I don’t see that roster construction influencing your draft strategy much. On the hitter side, big power hitters with high slugging percentages often strike out a lot. On the other hand, they also walk…(think adam dunn or ryan howard). Similarly, IP and QS clearly value starters while L and ER can be minimized by going reliever heavy. Seems pretty balanced to me.

Zach

I’m not the biggest McLouth fan in the world and agree that 4th round might be a tad early for him, but he’s certainly not going to last into the 9th round either. Arguments in his favor:

* Age-27 season in 2009;
* Strong plate discipline in his minor league career so the 65/93 BB/K ratio last year is legit;
* Big 2nd half in 2007 followed by 26 HR/23 SB season last year;
* High-percentage base-stealer (57-of-62 career) so he should continue to have green light;
* Survives against lefties (.710 OPS last year);
* Strong finish last season (.885 OPS in September) after rough summer.

Arguments against him:

* OPS dropped over 100 points in the second half last season;
* A .710 OPS against lefties is nothing to get excited about;
* SLG last season was 35 points higher than previous pro career high including minors (aka, fluke?);
* Mediocre supporting lineup.

I wouldn’t mind taking him as a 2nd outfielder in the 5th round if I could get him there.

–Cory

Charlie, of the guys you listed, I would rank them in this order for 2009 value alone:

* Lastings Milledge (Milledge : 2009 :: McLouth : 2008)
* Shin-Soo Choo (high AVG, good pop, a few SB’s)
* Justin Upton (should improve but still very raw)
* Coco Crisp (known commodity, OK player)
* Fred Lewis (decent pop and speed, awful park and lineup, PT concerns)
* Cameron Maybin (will steal every time he gets on, but how often will that be?)
* Adam Jones (IMO, overrated after his strong finish)
* Eric Byrnes (4th OF now)

Milledge is the only one I would truly target in a vanilla league; the rest of them should go at least a few rounds later if not several.

–Cory

I drafted Carlos Marmol in a late round last year, and he turned out to be the perfect middle reliever: stellar ratios along with more Ks than some starters. With him likely to soon add a boatload of saves to that mix, I’m planning on targeting him again this year, but I’m not sure when to pull the trigger. Should I be planning to grab him around the top of the second-tier closer class (i.e. B.J. Ryan, Jon Broxton area, around 10th round or so), or will the presence of Kevin Gregg in the closer mix for the Cubs drive down his value so I can wait until later (14th-15th round) to swoop him up?

Chris

Hey Guys,

I am in a 12 team 7×7 Mixed Head to Head Keeper League. The extra stats are OPS and K’s for hitters, and Losses and Holds for Pitchers. I am working on getting a keeper league together and wanted an expert opinion. I can only keep 5 players from the group. The list of potential keepers are Alex Rodriguez, Jose Reyes, Ryan Braun, Ryan Howard, Matt Holliday, Manny Ramirez, Ichiro Suzuki, Roy Halladay, and Garrett Atkins.

Thanks.

Chris,

The short answer is yes. His average draft position is in immediate proximity of Ryan and Brox. I don’t think Gregg’s presence will knock him down to the 14th and 15th, he is a good bet for the 10th to 12th to me. He went in the 9th round in our current mock draft which is probably a round too early but it was a decent upside pick. Brox, Cordero and jenks are still avail to me as I sit on my 11th rounder (4th pick) and I am taking one of them and if marmol was there he would definitely be strongly considered if not flat out taken by me.

-Siano

Just watched today’s show. Was Cory flippin’ the bird at the end?

Hey Mike – Great interview on Tony’s show on sunday night. Readers that are upset/confused/weary of the current status of the 411 must listen to this interview. Mike gave the best account (whether by knowledge or best guess) of why the changes have taken place.

Like many of us, I have been a listener since the radio days and long for those days again, but now have a better understanding of the changes that have happened since those days. I appreciate the answers you gave and feel much better about the whole situation.

Dan, I would never! That was Casey’s job if you recall :-)

–Cory

Hey Guys,

I am currently in negotiations with one of my league mates on a deal to acquire Tim Lincecum for my dynasty league team. The basic outlines of the deal are in place – I get Lincecum and he gets Dustin Pedroia. The problem is that he insists that Lincecum is so good that he merits additional players be involved in the deal. His current offer has me sending Vlad Guererro along to his team also while I get “a future outfield standout”, namely Travis Snider. Am I crazy or am I getting hosed here? Should I just shut down talks until he comes to his senses? I directed my fellow GM to the top 100 at MLB.com where Lincecum and Pedroia are listed 33rd and 34th respectively to prove that market value dictates their relatively equal values. I made the obvious point that pitchers are more volatile and prone to injury than hitters are. Hitters tend to perform along a more narrow band. In other words, Pedroia is not likely to have an MVP season again in 2009 but probably won’t fall back as far as Lincecum might from his impressive Cy Young season. Yet I kind of see his point. Pitchers are unreliable, frustrating ball breakers to own, yet if you have a true ace it almost trumps the fact that he belongs to the pitching class and makes him much more valuable than an ordinary pitcher because a true ace transcends the fact that he is a pitcher. I think this is what Jeffery Ma was pointing to in his comments on Thursday when he drafted pitching early.

What do you guys think? No way I am trading Vladdie for Travis Snider but what about Adam Dunn? Is that a fair comp?

Shoeless Joe

Last year Myers burned me. I dropped him then he went on to be pretty decent in the 2nd half. After your comments on the show yesterday where would you be taking him in a 12 team mixed draft and what pitchers do you see him being comparable to for draft value? Is he a #2 or a #3 for a fantasy rotation?

CALLING FROM THE LAND DOWNUNDER TO ANYONE WHO CAN HELP!!!!

I really want jump ino a keeper league this year but yet to no avail…no sure why but cant get into FBM and lost to all others. Don’t care if I pick up in an existing league with the last placed side…can only go up right? Help an Aussie out!!
Gerard Prosper

Does anyone know of a mock auction site that is already up and running? Thanks!

Jesse, I’m not sure if MDC.com supports auctions but I would suggest you start there.

Kevin, I think Myers is going in the Floyd/Danks/Garza tier, around there… I think he’ll be a strong #3 in vanilla leagues with good upside due to his strikeout totals. His ERA will always be a little high due to his occasional HR problems, but I’m bullish on him this season.

Shoeless Joe, I might throw in a small sweetener to get that deal done, but not Vladdy, even in his decline years. Lincecum is an ace, but Pedroia’s no scrub either… a conservative projection for him is what, .310/110/15/70/12? I think that’s pretty fair value.

–Cory

Jesse, I’m pretty sure that ESPN will offer auction and mock auction drafts for this season. They did so for NFL and NBA so I’d be surprised if they didn’t do the same for baseball. We’ll just have to wait a few more weeks to see…

Zach

Thanks Cory, does that mean that you would take guys like Wainright, Nolasco, Greinke ahead of him? He seems to be fairly comparable with Ted Lilly to me, who is also probably right around that area.
It still seems wrong to me to be placing Nolasco that high on rankings. the numbers were there I just have a block in my head trusting him for some reason. Probably all those months of hearing Mike calling out ‘NO-lasco’.
Are you stearing well clear of Harang this year, where would you consider him, or not at all?

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