Fantasy 411 Q&A: Jan. 30, 2009

Zach here,

Siano is in a meeting so I figured I’d get things started.  We’re wrapping up the 12th round of our mock draft, and there are plenty of surprises.  I can’t say this enough, but I’ll say it again: be flexible!  Every draft plays out in its own unique way, due in large part to the mix of owners and their individual evaluations of certain players.  Don’t be afraid to alter your strategy to take advantage of certain situations.  I’ll be posting the most updated version of the results later on today.

And just a reminder that the MLB.com Fantasy Preview is set to come out Monday.  Brace yourselves…

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FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

Hey guys,

I have a keeper question.  12 team keeper league, 5X5 vanilla,
25 man rosters (12 pos starters 1C, MI ,CI, 4OF and ULT; pitchers 3 SP,
2 RP and 2 P) and we keep 4 with a additional keeper (late round) if
two kept after the 15th round. My keeper choices are Chase Utley (1st
round pick), Albert Pujols (2nd), Lance Berkman (4th), CC Sabathia
(5th), Cory Hart (18th), Josh Hamilton (20th). My late round keeper
possibilities (21 rounders) include C. Lee (pitcher), Lastings Milledge,
and Johnny Cueto. My feelings are Albert, Josh H, Cory H, and C. Lee
for sure. The last keeper is the toss up.  I am leaning towards CC in
the 5th.  But I hate keeping pitchers.

Thanks,

Brad in STL

Brad, I actually like
Berkman over CC. 5th round is nice value for CC, but you’re already
keeping one pitcher, and whenever the decision is a close one, always
lean towards the hitter. I understand that Berkman fell off a cliff in
the second half last year, but he’s still close to a lock for 30 and
100 with a .300 BA. Tough choice, but I think that Berkman has a better
chance than CC of matching or exceeding last year’s production.
Sabathia will be a very good pitcher in ’09, but remember that he’s
going back to the AL, and his incredible run with the Brewers will
likely never be duplicated.
  Expect a season closer to his ’07 Cy Young year as a best case scenario, and keep in mind that even the best pitchers, at least initially, tend to get rattled by the Yankee spotlight.

-Zach

18 Comments

Yet another keeper question…

H2H 6×6 (OPS/H) and I can keep 7. There are no round values associated w/ these players and I have to keep 7. I have 9 on my list so I need to cut 2.

Adrian Gonzalez
Granderson
Derrek Lee
Ludwick
Alexi Ramirez
BJ Upton
Papelbon
J. Nathan
CC

I am thinking of cutting Nathan b/c I have Papelbon and Lee b/c of Gonzo, but I feel that Lee is a better keeper than Ludwick. What do you think?

Nate, I’d keep the two dominant closers and cut Lee and Ludwick. Gonzo gets the edge over Lee due to age and upside while Ludwick, although a nice story in ’08, isn’t exactly young at 30 years of age. He may very well go on to have a solid year, but you’ve got to wonder whether he’s already reached his peak.

Zach

Hi guys, yet another keeper question for you. 12 team league 6×6 with OBP and Holds. Keeper position is 4 rounds earlier than they were drafted last year with free agents given the lowest round value. I can keep up to 8 of the following. Hamilton (round 6), Lincecum (7), Broxton(13),Lester(14), Votto(15), Randy Johnson (24), or Morrow, Kershaw, Devine, Gallardo, Duchschererer, Aviles, Lowrie, Bruce, Loshe all in the (28th [last] round.). My thoughts are keep Hamilton, Lincecum, Lester, Votto, Morrow, Kershaw, Gallardo and Bruce. Any thoughts would be great.
Mark in Durham (UK)

Hey guys. Here’s yet another keeper question. 9×9 H2H 12 team league with 30 player teams and we keep 6. Atleast one must be a pitcher and atlast one must be a prospect (less than 450 career MLB ABs). I can keep Jay Bruce (25th Rd) for my prospect. My pitcher options are Haren (6th), Soria (11th), Harden (20th), and Fuentes (30th) so I need to keep just one of those four. On the hitter front I need to keep four of the following: Braun (2nd), Morneau (3rd), B. Roberts (3rd), Furcal (8th), Uggla (10th), Victorino (10th), Ethier (22nd), and D. Navarro (26th). I’m leaning towards Harden in the 20th for my pitcher and Braun, Morneau, B. Roberts, and Ethier on the offensive side. The extra categories are BB, SLG, H, and Ks for hitters and IP, L, ER, and QS for pitchers. What do you think?
Everett

If i want to ask a keeper questions should just leave it here in the comments or is there a email address i use?

1 more keeper question for ya. 12 team h2h, 10 active bats, 8 ps. We keep 5, 1 must be a P and we keep them the round they are projected to be drafted. If you have multiple guys in 1 round, you just lose the next pick, so if you have 4 first rounders you lose picks in round 1-4. I have the following 4 bats to keep with my arm already set: Soto, Berkman, Beltran, Bay, Ellsbury, Kemp. I’m thinking Berk, Bay, Beltran, and Ellsbury. Can you guys advise otherwise?

Regarding the question of the day.
I would keep CC over Hart.

To respond to the response above, I think you’re missing the picture. Its not about picking the best player as CC is that, but what pick provides the most value for the round taken. CC in the 5th is a value pick by a few rounds, but Hart in the 18th is a value pick by double digit rounds. Just my opinion on the matter
Wes in Chicago

Plus if i were to pick CC over Hart i would loose my bonus keeper in C. Lee. I don’t believe that would be a good plan. But i could be wrong.

I didn’t read the part about losing the bonus keeper. In that case I would keep Hart. But, if this was just a value pick, I would have kept CC or Hart even with the better round value because he is a premium pitcher and Hart is not a premium outfielder. (Premium prices for premium players)
Tampa Pete

Briechmann, exactly. I personally dont know what to think of Lee this year, but I’ll gladly take a chance on him in round 21! You always have the chance to re-draft CC as well. Again, just my opinion.

Mark, I think you’re right on there. The only thing I might consider is keeping Broxton over Morrow, as there’s still a bit of uncertainty concerning Morrow’s role, but considering his upside and the fact that he’ll cost you a pick 15 rounds later than Broxton, I’m in full agreement on those choices.

Zach

Everett, I’d take Fuentes for a 30th over Harden for a 20th. The fact that you have IP and QS doesn’t exactly favor Harden, whose injury history suggests he wont make more than 25 starts. Fuentes could thrive with the Angels. He’s got strikeout stuff, is moving out of Coors, and pitching for a team that ought to give him tons of save chances. On the hitter side, I’ll go Victorino over Ethier, sacrificing the round difference to hold onto a guy who can help mightily in runs and SBs.

Zach

Hey guys, couple questions today.
I have an offer on the table: I give up Johan ($38) and get Matt Kemp (17), Hughes (1), and Bucholz (1). I don’t think this will help me this season but wanted to see what your thoughts were on Hughes and Bucholz for this season?
Also, I have Brandon Phillips (29) and Robinson Cano (25). I am wondering if it is safer to keep one of them or throw both of them back and try to get them cheaper in the auction?

Thanks

*********Siano Back********

Hey everyone just a nuts two days for me so I apologize. I am going to answer chillaxin’s question and then head home but if I missed any from today that nobody answered let me know and I will jump back on tonight or Saturday before I go into full Steeler mode.

Chillaxin,

I don’t like that trade. Kemp is a great get at $17 but if you are giving up Johan you should do better, Clay and Hughes are just too big of question marks. Can you trade someone else for Kemp? I would keep Phillips if you like the price but even if cano has a bounce back year I’m not sure $25 is worth that risk. You can probably get him back cheaper. Roster spots have value don’t keep 5 or whatever just because you can.

-Siano

by the way I love that everyone jumped in and helped each other out today, that’s what the 411 community is all about keep it up, the more opinions the better!!!!

-Siano

Hey guys. simple keeper question. who do you like beteer for 09 as a keeper? Carl Crawford or Curtis Granderson??? I still feel that granderson will put up the better all around numbers, and crawford doesn’t seem he will ever reach those 25 Hr’s we thought he would get some day. but according to all the mock drafts, Crawford is going first.
thanks, Tzvi in Israel.

Tzvi, it’s very close, and the one and a half round difference you see in the mock draft probably isn’t all that accurate. But Crawford in my mind is still the better pick. Considering that Crawford had only about 80% of Granderson’s ABs in ’08, he would’ve fallen slightly short in runs and significantly short in homers while winning by a comfortable margin in RBI and a very sizable margin in SBs. The averages are about the same. Also consider that Crawford was playing injured for a portion of the season. A full year hitting in that up and coming TB lineup won’t hurt. The difference between the two is pretty simple…homers versus steals. And since steals are much more scarce, Crawford’s the guy.

Zach

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