Updated Mock Draft (through Round 10)

Why would anyone take Edwin Encarnacion over Alex Gordon? Just makes no sense. EE has proven he pretty much sucks while Alex could still NOT suck. He has POTENTIAL!

And Lastings Milledge… I’ll give Will Carroll a dollar if he does significantly better than 15/65/25/.275. I have no idea why everyone has such high hopes for this kid.

Irrespective of which 3B should have been taken first, I find it more interesting to look at what Cory is going to do with his pitching.
Volquez, Lester and Vazquez are all gone so it would seem that Cory is going to have to go with a guy like Greinke, Nolasco or Wainright as his ace. Would I be brave enough to have them at the top of my rotation?
But even if he does that in round 11 then he will probably miss out on the second tier of closers, Coco, Broxton and Jenks. should be gone before round 12.
With that in mind and knowing that already has 3 OF’s, 3 MI’s, 1B and CI filled, would it not have made more sense to wait on 3B and take Volquez or Lester in 10, coming back with a strong 2nd closer in round 11?
Or with Fuentes gone did he feel that the remaing 2nd tier of closers are not much diffeent than the 3rd tier guys?

Wow, the knives are out now! A few comments on my picks as mentioned above:

* I like Gordon’s future very much but to say it makes no sense to take Encarnacion over him, is just ignoring the facts:

1. EE’s fly-ball and HR/FB rates have increased for three-years running, showing increased power;
2. He’s entering his age-26 season in one of baseball’s most favorable HR parks, making last year’s 26 HR’s look like a baseline for this year;
3. His BB/PA rate also improved last year along with the HR’s… he’s developing more of a take and rake approach;
4. His hit rate last year was flukishly low, such that his xBA was about 15 points higher than his actual;
5. Unlike Gordon, who is utterly useless against lefties right now, EE can actually hit RHP;
6. While EE had only one SB last year to Gordon’s nine, EE had 14 steals total the past two years and showed in the minors that he is capable of more in a season.

To me, EE over Gordon is not only defensible, it’s a no-brainer.

* Similarly, your critique of Milledge is equally short-sided and uninformed. He hit .268 with 14 HR and 24 SB’s last year in only 138 games, at the age of 23. Along the way he lifted his OPS over 120 points in the second half of the season, showing steady growth in his strike zone discipline throughout the season and over past seasons. To tout Gordon’s potential while dismissing that of a player who is younger, already better and has more fantasy value, is just plain wrong. I could say less charitable things than that but I’m trying to be nice.

* No, I’m not thrilled to have Bell as my #2 closer; I wanted Fuentes but Zach took him two picks before me. Still, I think Bell’s strong K rates, and lack of competition for the job in SD, will make him a solid performer in that role.

* No, I’m not thrilled to have Nolasco as my “ace”… his numbers last year would justify it but of course he has to do it again. However, remember that we are drafting as if this is a 12-team daily mixed league, so if this were a “real” time, I’d be going pitch-or-ditch wild anyway. I’ve said it so many times that it doesn’t need repeating, but here it is one more time… in this format I simply don’t feel the need to invest much in SP’s on draft day.

–Cory

The mock draft Lenny Melnick hosted had Maybin going in the 22nd round and that seems about right. (I don’t have the premium service on MDC so I’m not sure where he’s going generally.)

CHONE has him at 11 HRs 19 SBs 61Rs 48RBIs and a .241 Avg. I wonder what PECOTA has to convince Will to draft him in the 9th round, but even if you think all the projections are wrong and he’ll break out this year why not reach and draft him in the 18th round?

Brent in San Antonio

Guys…how would you alter the “hitter first” mentality in a league that has moves limits (i.e. you can’t really pitch or ditch)…thanks…bill in Chicago

Jack, I think Ankiel has tremendous upside… he hits lefties well enough that with a full healthy season I think he’s capable of hitting 30+ HR’s. Maybe not what Ludwick did last year but definitely excellent production. As you said though, playing time in the OF will be tight so he’ll have to get off to a good start.

Bedard **could** bounce back to his peak form — we know he has the ability — but will he be healthy and does he have the desire? He’s a very high risk/reward candidate… worth picking but only at a discount so there’s upside and mitigation of the risk of him missing a significant number of starts.

Bill, it’s OK to go hitter first in any format, but certain formats do dictate that you get more SP’s… 15-team leagues, weekly leagues, H2H, etc.

Kevin, I like Fuentes as being the #6 closer this year behind Papelbon, Nathan, K-Rod, Rivera and Soria, in that order. He has always had excellent K, BB and HR rates despite pitching in Coors, and I think he’s going to have a distinct advantage now that he’s in a great pitcher’s park and will be going around a league that hasn’t seen him much. His changeup is one of the best in the game and I could easily see him having a monster year.

Finally, all things being equal I would probably have taken Beltre in the 12th over EE in the 10th, but as you said hindsight is 20/20! That said, I think EE is more likely to have a great year than Beltre, who is more likely to have a good year. Does that make sense? Beltre has the same season every year so he’s likely to do more of the same in ’09, whereas EE is only 26 and I think gradually consolidating his skills into what could be a breakout year this season or next. I’m willing to take my chances somewhat, especially considering that he’s essentially my CI (I already had Fielder and Votto).

Thanks,
Cory

2008 stat line

Jorge Cantu (probably will go around 14th round)
29 HRs 6 SBs 92Rs 95RBIs and a .277 Avg.
vs
EE in the 10th
26 HRs 1 SBs 75Rs 68RBIs and a .251 Avg.

I love Jorge’s value this year, do you see any reason why he won’t do it again?

Andy from Ontario

Kevin, I do like Fuentes over Lidge, although that’s more of a hunch that Lidge will backslide somewhat this year; his HR rate was extremely and uncharacteristically low, and he does struggle with his command from time to time. I think he’ll have another strong season but my gut is very strong on Fuentes this year.

Andy, there are a few knocks on Cantu vs. EE: his K/BB rates suggest his AVG should be lower and volatile, he plays in a very difficult home park compared to EE, and that he’s had two very bad seasons in between his two very good ones. EE hasn’t reached a peak yet comparable to Cantu’s two best seasons, but he’s also showing more consistent improvement, a good sign leading into his age-26 season in a great hitter’s park.

Finally, thanks to Jason Collette from RotoJunkie for the last post… valid concerns about EE WRT his playing time and bad defense, but I think he showed Dusty Baker enough with the bat last year that he’ll be a staple in the lineup. I doubt he’ll enjoy unlimited goodwill, but I’m less worried about the consequences of a slow start than I was last year. Their offense is going to be too weak to begin with to sacrifice his bat in favor of Jerry Hairston. At least I hope Dusty recognizes that…

Thanks,
Cory

onbase4,

This is an ancient blog post of a mock draft from 2009, not 2011! Hope that clears up the confusion.

Zach