Updated Mock Draft (through Round 10)

Alex Cushing – MLB.com

Joe Sheehan – Baseball Prospectus
Jeff Erickson – Rotowire.com
Mike Siano – MLB.com
Jeffrey Ma – Citizen Sports   
                                                                                                                        
Jason Collette – Fanball.com
Nando Di Fino / Tom Herrera  – WSJ.com / AOL.com
Will Carroll – Baseball Prospectus
Cory Schwartz – MLB.com
Lawr Michaels – CREATiVESPORTS.com
Zach Steinhorn – MLB.com
Tony Cincotta – Fantasypros911.com

R1 P1    Alex Cushing      Ramirez, Hanley
R1 P2    Joe Sheehan      Reyes, Jose
R1 P3    Jeff Erickson       Rodriguez, Alex
R1 P4    Mike Siano         Pujols, Albert
R1 P5    Jeffrey Ma         Wright, David
R1 P6    Jason Collette   Sizemore, Grady
R1 P7    Nando Di Fino    Howard, Ryan
R1 P8    Will Carroll         Upton, B.J.
R1 P9    Cory Schwartz   Braun, Ryan
R1 P10  Lawr Michaels    Utley, Chase
R1 P11  Zach Steinhorn  Rollins, Jimmy
R1 P12  Tony Cincotta    Cabrera, Miguel

R2 P1   Tony Cincotta    Hamilton, Josh
R2 P2   Zach Steinhorn  Teixeira, Mark
R2 P3   Lawr Michaels    Morneau, Justin
R2 P4   Cory Schwartz   Kinsler, Ian
R2 P5   Will Carroll         Santana, Johan
R2 P6   Nando Di Fino    Hamels, Cole
R2 P7   Jason Collette   Longoria, Evan
R2 P8   Jeffrey Ma         Lincecum, Tim
R2 P9   Mike Siano        Beltran, Carlos
R2 P10  Jeff Erickson    Holliday, Matt
R2 P11  Joe Sheehan   Soriano, Alfonso
R2 P12  Alex Cushing   Lee, Carlos

R3 P1    Alex Cushing     Ramirez, Manny                                                     
R3 P2    Joe Sheehan     Kemp, Matt
R3 P3    Jeff Erickson      Suzuki, Ichiro
R3 P4    Mike Siano        Pedroia, Dustin
R3 P5    Jeffrey Ma         Sabathia, CC
R3 P6    Jason Collette  Crawford, Carl
R3 P7    Nando Di Fino   Markakis, Nick
R3 P8    Will Carroll        Berkman, Lance
R3 P9    Cory Schwartz  Roberts, Brian
R3 P10  Lawr Michaels   Youkilis, Kevin
R3 P11  Zach Steinhorn  Phillips, Brandon
R3 P12  Tony Cincotta    Ramirez, Aramis

R4 P1    Tony Cincotta      Ramirez, Alexei
R4 P2    Zach Steinhorn    Bay, Jason
R4 P3    Lawr Michaels     Drew, Stephen
R4 P4    Cory Schwartz    Fielder, Prince
R4 P5    Will Carroll          McCann, Brian
R4 P6    Nando Di Fino     Rios, Alex
R4 P7    Jason Collette    Martin, Russell
R4 P8    Jeffrey Ma          Ellsbury, Jacoby
R4 P9    Mike Siano         Quentin, Carlos
R4 P10  Jeff Erickson      Webb, Brandon
R4 P11  Joe Sheehan     Peavy, Jake
R4 P12  Alex Cushing     Ortiz, David

R5 P1     Alex Cushing      Granderson, Curtis
R5 P2     Joe Sheehan      Mauer, Joe
R5 P3     Jeff Erickson       Soto, Geovany
R5 P4     Mike Siano         Papelbon, Jonathan
R5 P5     Jeffrey Ma          Hart, Corey
R5 P6     Jason Collette   Gonzalez, Adrian
R5 P7     Nando Di Fino   Guerrero, Vladimir
R5 P8     Will Carroll        Jones, Chipper
R5 P9     Cory Schwartz  Victorino, Shane
R5 P10   Lawr Michaels   Haren, Dan
R5 P11   Zach Steinhorn Dunn, Adam
R5 P12   Tony Cincotta   McLouth, Nate

R6 P1    Tony Cincotta      Rodriguez, Francisco
R6 P2    Zach Steinhorn    Nathan, Joe
R6 P3    Lawr Michaels      Billingsley, Chad
R6 P4    Cory Schwartz     Rivera, Mariano
R6 P5    Will Carroll           Halladay, Roy
R6 P6    Nando Di Fino      Furcal, Rafael
R6 P7    Jason Collette     Oswalt, Roy
R6 P8    Jeffrey Ma           Lidge, Brad
R6 P9    Mike Siano         Abreu, Bobby
R6 P10  Jeff Erickson      Davis, Chris
R6 P11  Joe Sheehan     Hernandez, Felix
R6 P12  Alex Cushing     Soria, Joakim

R7 P1      Alex Cushing       Martinez, Victor           
R7 P2     Joe Sheehan        Lackey, John    
R7 P3     Jeff Erickson         Tulowitzki, Troy
R7 P4     Mike Siano           Young, Michael         
R7 P5     Jeffrey Ma            Liriano, Francisco    
R7 P6   
  Jason Collette     Shields, James    
R7 P7     Nando Di Fino     Beckett, Josh
R7 P8     Will Carroll          Uggla, Dan    
R7 P9     Cory Schwartz    Pence, Hunter
R7 P10    Lawr Michaels    Napoli, Mike    
R7 P11    Zach Steinhorn  Matsuzaka, Daisuke         
R7 P12    Tony Cincotta     Hardy, J.J.
    
R8 P1     Tony Cincotta      Santana, Ervin    
R8 P2     Zach Steinhorn    Young, Chris      
R8 P3     Lawr Michaels     Ordonez, Magglio      
R8 P4     Cory Schwartz    Votto, Joey    
R8 P5     Will Carroll          Bruce, Jay    
R8 P6     Nando Di Fino     Kazmir, Scott    
R8 P7     Jason Collette    Valverde, Jose    
R8 P8     Jeffrey Ma           Iannetta, Chris
R8 P9     Mike Siano          Doumit, Ryan    
R8 P10   Jeff Erickson       Cano, Robinson    
R8 P11   Joe Sheehan      Pena, Carlos    
R8 P12   Alex Cushing      Lee, Derrek

R9 P1     Alex Cushing      Vazquez, Javier     
R9 P2     Joe Sheehan      Chamberlain, Joba        
R9 P3     Jeff Erickson       Lee, Cliff    
R9 P4     Mike Siano         Huff, Aubrey    
R9 P5     Jeffrey Ma          Marmol, Carlos    
R9 P6     Jason Collette    Jeter, Derek    
R9 P7     Nando Di Fino    Ludwick, Ryan    
R9 P8     Will Carroll        Maybin, Cameron
R9 P9     Cory Schwartz  Peralta, Jhonny
R9 P10   Lawr Michaels   Figgins, Chone    
R9 P11   Zach Steinhorn Damon, Johnny    
R9 P12   Tony Cincotta   Molina, Bengie    

R10 P1   Tony Cincotta    Burnett, A.J.    
R10 P2   Zach Steinhorn  Fuentes, Brian    
R10 P3   Lawr Michaels   Ryan, B.J.    
R10 P4   Cory Schwartz  Encarnacion, Edwin
R10 P5   Will Carroll        Milledge, Lastings
R10 P6   Nando Di Fino   Volquez, Edinson    
R10 P7   Jason Collette  Gordon, Alex    
R10 P8   Jeffrey Ma        Atkins, Garrett    
R10 P9   Mike Siano       Lester, Jon    
R10 P10 Jeff Erickson     Wood, Kerry    
R10 P11 Joe Sheehan    Kendrick, Howie
R10 P12 Alex Cushing    Zimmerman, Ryan

17 Comments

Why would anyone take Edwin Encarnacion over Alex Gordon? Just makes no sense. EE has proven he pretty much sucks while Alex could still NOT suck. He has POTENTIAL!

And Lastings Milledge… I’ll give Will Carroll a dollar if he does significantly better than 15/65/25/.275. I have no idea why everyone has such high hopes for this kid.

I agree that there are grounds for picking Alex Gordon over Encarnacion – I have them ranked very close to one another on my cheatsheet.

But to say that “EE has proven that he pretty much sucks” when he hit 26 HR last year is a bit of an odd statement. His average was well below his career average to date, so if he can get that average back up to around the .280 mark, then he could easily be more valuable than Gordon again in 2009.

I find it more interesting that both were drafted before Garret Atkins! Shows how little expectation there is on Atkins entering this fantasy season!

Irrespective of which 3B should have been taken first, I find it more interesting to look at what Cory is going to do with his pitching.
Volquez, Lester and Vazquez are all gone so it would seem that Cory is going to have to go with a guy like Greinke, Nolasco or Wainright as his ace. Would I be brave enough to have them at the top of my rotation?
But even if he does that in round 11 then he will probably miss out on the second tier of closers, Coco, Broxton and Jenks. should be gone before round 12.
With that in mind and knowing that already has 3 OF’s, 3 MI’s, 1B and CI filled, would it not have made more sense to wait on 3B and take Volquez or Lester in 10, coming back with a strong 2nd closer in round 11?
Or with Fuentes gone did he feel that the remaing 2nd tier of closers are not much diffeent than the 3rd tier guys?

Hey guys,

You bring the subject up, so I’ll give a sneak preview. Greinke, Broxton, F. Cordero, Jenks, and Hoffman were all gone by the time Cory was up in round 11. He took Bell there. Big #2 closer run in this round so I was glad I grabbed Fuentes in Round 10. And in Round 12 (you guessed it), Ricky NO-lasco was Cory’s choice. I like Nolasco, but not crazy about him as an ace. Yeah, the stats look good. But one solid season in the bigs isn’t all that comforting. We’re wrapping up Round 12, so I’ll post 11 and 12 on Monday.

Zach

Wow, the knives are out now! A few comments on my picks as mentioned above:

* I like Gordon’s future very much but to say it makes no sense to take Encarnacion over him, is just ignoring the facts:

1. EE’s fly-ball and HR/FB rates have increased for three-years running, showing increased power;
2. He’s entering his age-26 season in one of baseball’s most favorable HR parks, making last year’s 26 HR’s look like a baseline for this year;
3. His BB/PA rate also improved last year along with the HR’s… he’s developing more of a take and rake approach;
4. His hit rate last year was flukishly low, such that his xBA was about 15 points higher than his actual;
5. Unlike Gordon, who is utterly useless against lefties right now, EE can actually hit RHP;
6. While EE had only one SB last year to Gordon’s nine, EE had 14 steals total the past two years and showed in the minors that he is capable of more in a season.

To me, EE over Gordon is not only defensible, it’s a no-brainer.

* Similarly, your critique of Milledge is equally short-sided and uninformed. He hit .268 with 14 HR and 24 SB’s last year in only 138 games, at the age of 23. Along the way he lifted his OPS over 120 points in the second half of the season, showing steady growth in his strike zone discipline throughout the season and over past seasons. To tout Gordon’s potential while dismissing that of a player who is younger, already better and has more fantasy value, is just plain wrong. I could say less charitable things than that but I’m trying to be nice.

* No, I’m not thrilled to have Bell as my #2 closer; I wanted Fuentes but Zach took him two picks before me. Still, I think Bell’s strong K rates, and lack of competition for the job in SD, will make him a solid performer in that role.

* No, I’m not thrilled to have Nolasco as my “ace”… his numbers last year would justify it but of course he has to do it again. However, remember that we are drafting as if this is a 12-team daily mixed league, so if this were a “real” time, I’d be going pitch-or-ditch wild anyway. I’ve said it so many times that it doesn’t need repeating, but here it is one more time… in this format I simply don’t feel the need to invest much in SP’s on draft day.

–Cory

One more thing re. EE vs. Gordon… projections don’t prove anything, but I’ve been working on the composites tonight and 5 of the 7 I have so far have EE with better numbers than Gordon in ’09, with one being a wash… so one out of the seven objective projections I have projects Gordon as being the more valuable fantasy player in ’09.

On the average, EE outstrips Gordon in all categories but SB’s, which is a 12-4 edge for Gordon.

None of this proves anything, but it does show I’m not alone in my preference between them for ’09.

–Cory

The mock draft Lenny Melnick hosted had Maybin going in the 22nd round and that seems about right. (I don’t have the premium service on MDC so I’m not sure where he’s going generally.)

CHONE has him at 11 HRs 19 SBs 61Rs 48RBIs and a .241 Avg. I wonder what PECOTA has to convince Will to draft him in the 9th round, but even if you think all the projections are wrong and he’ll break out this year why not reach and draft him in the 18th round?

Brent in San Antonio

Certainly not trying to stick in the knife Cory, mock’s are for learning from though and I am wondering if you regret your decision to go for EE instead of a pitcher in round 10. Hindsight being 20-20 and all that.
It is very clear that you are happy to wait a long time on starting pitching in this format, but you have equally supported having 2 strong RP’s. Were you that set on Fuentes that after that you didn’t care which of the other guys you got. I mean is EE that much better than a Beltre in round 12?

Guys…how would you alter the “hitter first” mentality in a league that has moves limits (i.e. you can’t really pitch or ditch)…thanks…bill in Chicago

Hey Guys,

I was just wondering if you guys see any upside in Ankiel for this coming season. Especially with the logjam in the outfield already. Also, do you guys think Bedard has any chance of going back to 2006 or 2007 form. I just ask for kindness in this second answer, being a Seattle sports fan.

Jack, I think Ankiel has tremendous upside… he hits lefties well enough that with a full healthy season I think he’s capable of hitting 30+ HR’s. Maybe not what Ludwick did last year but definitely excellent production. As you said though, playing time in the OF will be tight so he’ll have to get off to a good start.

Bedard **could** bounce back to his peak form — we know he has the ability — but will he be healthy and does he have the desire? He’s a very high risk/reward candidate… worth picking but only at a discount so there’s upside and mitigation of the risk of him missing a significant number of starts.

Bill, it’s OK to go hitter first in any format, but certain formats do dictate that you get more SP’s… 15-team leagues, weekly leagues, H2H, etc.

Kevin, I like Fuentes as being the #6 closer this year behind Papelbon, Nathan, K-Rod, Rivera and Soria, in that order. He has always had excellent K, BB and HR rates despite pitching in Coors, and I think he’s going to have a distinct advantage now that he’s in a great pitcher’s park and will be going around a league that hasn’t seen him much. His changeup is one of the best in the game and I could easily see him having a monster year.

Finally, all things being equal I would probably have taken Beltre in the 12th over EE in the 10th, but as you said hindsight is 20/20! That said, I think EE is more likely to have a great year than Beltre, who is more likely to have a good year. Does that make sense? Beltre has the same season every year so he’s likely to do more of the same in ’09, whereas EE is only 26 and I think gradually consolidating his skills into what could be a breakout year this season or next. I’m willing to take my chances somewhat, especially considering that he’s essentially my CI (I already had Fielder and Votto).

Thanks,
Cory

Thanks Cory,
Wow, so you would have Fuentes ahead of Lidge? Or was that just an omission?

2008 stat line

Jorge Cantu (probably will go around 14th round)
29 HRs 6 SBs 92Rs 95RBIs and a .277 Avg.
vs
EE in the 10th
26 HRs 1 SBs 75Rs 68RBIs and a .251 Avg.

I love Jorge’s value this year, do you see any reason why he won’t do it again?

Andy from Ontario

Cory and I think a lot alike. Thankfully we won’t be going up against each other in Tout this year ;) Going into that round, my queue was Fuentes, EE, Gordon, and Atkins. While I think year three could be a good one for Gordon, I’m not convinced he is the better 3B against EE until the issues vs LHP are resolved. EE is rather volatile himself as he could hit 30 homers but also struggle to hit .260. He also plays for a rather finicky manager who could yank him at any time for defensive issues and give playing time to someone who does not deserve it. I think Gordon has finally made up from the damage the Royals did to him by letting him skip AAA (as I do with Baltimore if they let Wieters do the same) but I still give EE the slight edge over Gordon heading into 2009.

Kevin, I do like Fuentes over Lidge, although that’s more of a hunch that Lidge will backslide somewhat this year; his HR rate was extremely and uncharacteristically low, and he does struggle with his command from time to time. I think he’ll have another strong season but my gut is very strong on Fuentes this year.

Andy, there are a few knocks on Cantu vs. EE: his K/BB rates suggest his AVG should be lower and volatile, he plays in a very difficult home park compared to EE, and that he’s had two very bad seasons in between his two very good ones. EE hasn’t reached a peak yet comparable to Cantu’s two best seasons, but he’s also showing more consistent improvement, a good sign leading into his age-26 season in a great hitter’s park.

Finally, thanks to Jason Collette from RotoJunkie for the last post… valid concerns about EE WRT his playing time and bad defense, but I think he showed Dusty Baker enough with the bat last year that he’ll be a staple in the lineup. I doubt he’ll enjoy unlimited goodwill, but I’m less worried about the consequences of a slow start than I was last year. Their offense is going to be too weak to begin with to sacrifice his bat in favor of Jerry Hairston. At least I hope Dusty recognizes that… :-)

Thanks,
Cory

I am surprised not to see Buster Posey picked, did I miss it? Also surprised Tulu went so late. Seems like they would be picked earlier since the bats at C and SS are few and far between.

onbase4,

This is an ancient blog post of a mock draft from 2009, not 2011! Hope that clears up the confusion.

Zach

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