Fantasy 411 Q&A: Feb. 3, 2009

09_SBXLIII_Harrison04_103005.jpgIt’s a beautiful day today. The Steelers will have their parade and the fantasy season is in my book officially underway. Many of us will start setting our draft dates and signing up on sites to host our leagues and finalize our keeper lists. In honor of that Cory and I will chat today at 2pm ET on MLB.com so come on over and join us. The chat room should be open around an hour before. Petey Mac and Cory are getting ready to shoot the show in a few minutes. They will look at Ollie Perez’s return to Flushing and some players who put some numbers up in Winter Leagues. Anyone see the game yesterday? Ronnie Belliard totally wishes he was Manny.

 

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The crew is ready for your questions so fire when ready. We will post the chat transcript and update the mock draft once round 13 ends in a few picks.

FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

I have seen a very rosy projection for Mike Jacobs on another site,
namely a .285 BA. When I asked for some depth behind their reasoning,
it was a three part answer. One, the mound in Florida is higher than
other stadiums, leading to more strikeouts. Two, Jacobs’ road BA was
.270 last year. And three he has had an xBA (sorry that probably gives
the site away) higher than his BA. So moving out of Florida should mean
lower strikeout totals for Jacobs (i.e. more balls in play), a better
BA away from Florida in his history (skill he owns) and trend with xBA
that usually means a reversion to the mean. All this leads to a much
higher BA. Two questions. One, have you heard the theory about the
mound in Florida leading to higher strikeout totals? And two, what do
you think about the reasoning on Jacobs’ BA projection for this year.

Thanks,                                                                                                                        Jeff in Minny

I’m not one to poo poo on someone else’s hard work, but if Jacobs moving to the AL is worth that much of a jump in BA I’m not sure I buy it. I like him a ton, don’t get me wrong, and think he is going to be a nice fit and definitely worth drafting, but I am not drafting him to help my average. I am drafting him to produce and hope that he can bat .260 to .270. Jacobs is a lifetime .262 hitter so I’ll hope for better and expect it not to be worse. To answer the Marlins mound question, I have heard about it but never really gave much into it. I mean it didn’t seem to affect the infielders from going out and blasting the ball all over the place, did it? Granted they all struck out a bunch too (Cantu, Hanley and Uggla) but Hanley still hit .301.

Siano

 

13 Comments

Hey guys!
I was wondering what you guy’s think of Chad Billingsley for 2009. I see he is ranked all over as around 20th for SP yet I am counting on him to be my ACE. with 200 inings and 200 strikeouts, 3.14 ERA already under his belt in 2008 should I not expect a CY young caliber year in 09? my only worries are the somewhat high WHIP and perhaps the jump in IP from 2007 to 2008. Is he an ace? or still a number 2 guy?

Of course, this was Tzvi in Israel

Do you think Lars Anderson is worthy of a reserve pick in a 12 team AL-only keeper league? To be kept for 2010 Lars would have to be on the 25-man roster on Opening Day and could only be kept for 3 years. Thanks

John (Ohio)

I like Billingsley a lot and view him as a soft ace and excellent #2. I own him in a keeper league and am strongly considering holding onto him for a 9th rounder. The strikeouts will always be there, but the walks worry me a bit. The good news is that he cut down on those in the second half of the season (from 3.87 to 3.20), So this could be a sign of growth. The leg injury is also a concern, as it would be for any pitcher. I’ll watch him closely in Spring Training to see if he’s truly pain free. A Cy Young year is pushing it a little, but can he duplicate or even slightly improve on last year’s stats? Absolutely.

Zach

Hey guys, I need some trade advice. I’m in a 10 team H2H 8 keeper league. I got offered Jose Reyes for my Big Tex. I already have A-Rod, Wright, Utley, Crawford, and Vlad as my other 6 bats with 2 SP’s being kept. Since I already have Crawford and this being a H2H league, do you think its worth it for me?

Yeah, I’d still do the Reyes-Tex deal. As much as I love Tex and do think he’ll have a monster year, the combination of Reyes and Crawford can single-handedly win you SBs every week. First base is plenty deep, and although you won’t find many who possess Tex’s AVG/HR/RBI combo, there are plenty of guys at the position who could go .275-25-100. Reyes will go ahead of Tex in every scratch draft and is simply the better keeper.

Zach

i just tried to listen to the podcast that you guys did today and it wouldnt work.

Try again…it works now.

Zach

Hi Guys,

My question is about ADP. I subscribe to MDC, and use their ADP report to guide my drafting, and my mocks usually place me near the top. Here’s the top 24 as of today:

1) Hanley Ramirez
2) Alex Rodriguez
3) Albert Pujols
4) David Wright
5) Jose Reyes
6) Grady Sizemore
7) Miguel Cabrera
8) Jimmy Rollins
9) Ryan Braun
10) Josh Hamilton
11) Ryan Howard
12) Ian Kinsler
13) Mark Teixeira
14) Matt Holliday
15) Lance Berkman
16) Chase Utley
17) Johan Santana
18) Evan Longoria
19) B.J. Upton OF
20) Justin Morneau
21) Manny Ramirez
22) Carlos Beltran
23) Alfonso Soriano
24) Prince Fielder

I noticed that some of the guys taken it your ongoing mock were taken a bit earlier than their ADP. So the question is how far do you use ADP – is it a rigid rule, or do you go on gut? I mean, Howard went 7th in your draft, and his ADP is 11. Doesn’t sound much, but you should hear the howls in the MDC chat room when you pick higher than the ADP slot.

Thanks for all your help guys – stay cool.

Steve, UK

Steve,

One thing you’re missing on ADP is what the A stands for. It’s average. So if you look at the data you’ll see the earliest a guy goes and the latest he has went. So to say Howard at 7 is a reach because his ADP is 11 is missing the point. I use ADP to see what the consensus is if I am on the fence about a player in a certain round. If it is in the area and I really like the player then I’m going for it anyway. I use it as a reference not as a bible. If a player’s ADP is a few rounds later then where I take him what is not being measured is position scarcity and need. The ADP is made up of thousands of drafts so every howl that comes out is misdirected. Ryan Howard’s ADP is not 11 because he gets taken 11th in 100% of the drafts. Good question and thanks for posing it. I enjoyed that Guinness by the way. Remember it well.

Mike

Yeoman’s work on creating a separate Audio and Video podcast feed. I rely on you guys to make my commute home tolerable, and my old 2gig Ipod appreciates the Audio-only downloads.

Could you guys post a link to the audio podcast feed? I can’t seem to find it anywhere. Thanks!

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