Fantasy 411 Q&A: Feb. 11, 2009

Awesome awesome day here in the Big Apple, wish I could sneak out for 18 holes but instead I will chat with the good people of 411 nation. By the way, did anyone see Larry Lucchino on MLB Network last night? He gave the background story on the creation of the term Red Sox Nation. It seems possible it was around before Raiders Nation and my personal favorite Steelers Nation but I would love once and for all to find out who created it first. You can catch the interview on MLB.com.

 

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towels.jpgOur mock draft is almost done. Cory, Zach, Cushing and I will discuss it when it is all done.

 

Great stuff with Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus yesterday hope you caught the show. 

 

Let’s get to your questions…….Siano

FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY                                                                          

Hey there Experts!!!

I have a Trade question. 10 Team, 5×5, Mixed, Roto Keeper league – Keep 10 without restriction.

I am looking to trade for Carlos Beltran by offering Alexei Ramirez and something else. Who should I add on, if anybody, from these guys: Roy Halladay, Jon Papelbon, Edinson Volquez.

I have Jose Reyes at SS and I can play Chone Figgins at 2B for this year. Alexei won’t qualify after this year anyway.

Alexei’s value seems inflated and I’d like to capitalize on it. Am I overpaying by adding somebody? Should Alexei get Beltran all by himself?

Message Board people are saying I am paying too much. I think I’m
close to being fair because I value Beltran’s overall production.
Alexei is not a sure thing and Pitchers are Pitchers – even if they
happen to be Top 5.

What do you think?

Tell the other guy you are “dangling” Alexei to gauge the market
value and that you are interested in Beltran in return. See what his
reply is… if he shows his hand it should give you a good sense of
what he wants in return. Personally I would do Alexei AND Figgins for
Beltran, but that might be more speed than you want to give up, even
with Beltran’s ~20 steals in return. You could include Volquez in that
deal, who comes with some concerns this year even after his breakout
season, but his value should be high enough that you could get back a
2nd player in a 2-for-2. But since you’re not sure if you’re
overpaying, try to hedge your offer and make the other guy commit first.

Cory

20 Comments

Hey Mike,

Either I’ve stepped into a time portal, it’s Groundhog Day v2.0, or you have the date wrong on the thread header.
Fresh, Spring-like air can be a dangerous thing. :)

zach did the posting yesterday so i got screwed up, starge you want to be DTM????? ;-)

Hey guys,

In our league this year, Alexei Ramirez is eligible at SS, Ian Stewart at 2B, and Pablo Sandoval at C. How would you rank these players at these positions?

So with Abreu landing in LA where does he fit into that lineup and what kind of change can we expect in his stats? I have a feeling his steals will increase a little more from last year, maybe be back in the 25-30 range instead of the 20-25? Just picking your brain.

–Nate

I see Vlad went in the 5th round of the mock draft – I realize he’s probably on the downside, but don’t you think he may be undervalued this year? The steals will never come back, but I still think he’s a great hitter.
Also, I saw Cory took Prince in the 4th – was there any explanation for his power being down in 2008 (other than the veggie burgers and the fact that it is just really hard to hit 50 homers)
Bob in Oregon

I was talking about The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in regards to Abreu. Or if you want to translate The The Angels Angels of Anaheim or for our bi-lingual readers Los Los Angeles Angeles…

Nate, I agree. I think Abreu’s steals could see a slight bump up. Girardi was more agressive on the basepaths than Torre, but Scioscia is about as agressive as managers get. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Abreu steals 30. On the downside, the RBIs could take a hit. Assuming Abreu bats third, in front of Vlad, whomever the Angels use in the top two slots won’t match the production of Damon and Jeter. All in all, Abreu’s fantasy value, in my mind, stays about the same.

Zach

doobie, I’d rank them Ramirez, Sandoval, Stewart. Of the three, Ramirez has proven the most at the big league level and offers the type of power and speed combo that you love to get out of a middle infielder. Sandoval has tremendous upside, and the C eligibility makes him a nice medium risk high reward pick. Stewart’s the least established and doesn’t have speed. Although he might be a decent late round flier, do not by any means rely on him to put up consistent numbers.

Zach

Hey Mike and Cory, I got a draft average question for you guys. I’m looking at the potential and projections of Ellsbury, and his numbers look so familiar to Jose Reyes from like 3 years ago. Potential .275, 10HR, 50+SB, 100+runs, 50-60RBI’s. Granted he’s young and his hitting is inconsistent, but just wondering why people aren’t drafting him higher? Any thoughts?
Wes in Chicago

I agree on Abreu that his value stays about the same, if his steals go up and his runs go down its a wash, he is still a .300 type hitter with not much pop anymore, but he can get on base and put himself in scoring position.

-Siano

Bob,

I’ll let Cory give his take on Fielder but to me Vlad is on his way out of the elite OF group in fact he is on my overrated list for 09 which comes out 3/2.

-Siano

Matt Weiters question!!!

In a Keeper league, where we keep 10 players without restriction so we start drafting at pick 101. Would drafting Weiters at pick 113 be too early or just about right?

I pick at 108 and 113. I fear the Weiters will be gone by my next pick at 128. The picks between 108 and 112 are teams that already have Catchers in Mauer and Martin so I should be safe to get him at 113.

He looks to be a lock as a good to great player at a thin position . All the other top Catchers are being kept.

Is this too early? Too much hype?

Thanks.

Wes,

I agree with your numbers assesment but the one thing that is missing in your comp is position. Those numbers for **** are fantastic especially with growth potential, but for an OF there are so many other players that put up better numbers and when you draft your #1 OF you want power unless you are talking Ichiro and his very high average. That is why Elsbury will never be a first rounder but Braun and Sizemore will.

-Siano

those ****** should say shortstop, not sure what happened……siano oh wai it spelled your posterior.

zebra,

His ADP is 124 and you then get to keep him without restrictions so that sounds like a decent gamble to me. Even if he doesnt make the club out of spring I think this guy is legit and can live up to the hype. Not a bad roll of the dice.

Siano

Working backwards for a few…

Zebra, I think Wieters is only going to move up on draft boards as we get into the spring, not down. Everyone is going to use Longoria’s ’08 season as comp playing-time wise, and if the “Mauer with power” descriptions are accurate he should be the #1 catcher on performance. 113 is a pretty fair value right now, and he’ll only cost more than that as the spring progresses. He’s not without risk, though, but the upside is considerable.

Wes, Ellsbury got expose a little bit last year and was overmatched at times before settling in as the season progressed. With his SB’s and ability to hit for a good average, he should be a solid 3rd/4th round pick, maybe late 2nd or early 3rd at his peak, in the Figgins mold. But Reyes is not a good comp, for two reasons… one, Reyes is **** and Ellsbury is an OF, and two, Reyes is 6’0″ and can reasonably be expected to hit 15-20 homers, whereas Ellsbury is much smaller and will probably peak around 10-12 homers, if that.

More…

–Cory

Bob, I wrote the 1B section for the fantasy previews and could not find any good explanation for Fielder’s power decline… he hit more grounders, but not an extreme amount, and his BB/SO ratio remained strong. His HR/F ratio dipped somewhat so maybe you can say he lost a little strength, but he finished strong. Remember though that he’s only 24, so while 50 homers is probably his upside, I think he can improve upon the 34 he hit last year. I think his true level is somewhere in between, and I expect him to hit around 40 homers this year, so I think 4th round is a very good value.

Nate, I agree with Zach and Siano on Abreu. Should steal a few more bags to offset what will probably be a decline in runs and RBI’s. His ADP is 63, which I think is a little value, and he’s an outright bargain if he slips into the 6th or 7th round.

–Cory

I know Prince looks a lot like his dad body style wise and he is a big guy, but do you think some of his power decrease could be his size catching up w/ him? I know it sounds kind of backwards but excessive mass in the chest and biceps has to have a somewhat adverse effect on bat speed.
Also, if you want to make the argument and compare his size to his dad, you have to point out that Cecil was not nearly this big at 24-25 years of age. It wasn’t until he got back from Japan that he was this big.
I mean really if you watch Fielder round the bases on a homerun it is hard to figure out how he doesn’t come away with two black eyes.
– Nate in Springfield

Mike – AL ONLY QUESTION standard $260

5×5 with On Base percentage instead of runs
12 keepers so alot of inflation
no one in available pool for steals so your thoughts on Abreau at $35 and Carlos Gomez at $20

-TJ

TJ,

Zero problem with Abreu at $35 sounds good. Gomez at $20 may seem high but I think it’s ok. Like you said there is inflation due to 144 players being off the board and that steals are at a premium because of that. His OBP was disgraceful in 08′ (.296) but I think he is a sleeper this year so I’d go for it. He may only help in a few cats but he could be a difference maker in steals.

Siano

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