Fantasy 411 Q&A: Feb. 12, 2009

Nice amount of stuff to discuss on the show today. Petey Mac and I will be hosting. Adam Dunn to the Nats, Bobby Abreu to the Halos, latest on Tejada and a couple of your e-mails will make up the extravaganza so keep an eye out for it in a few hours.

 

abreu_razorramon.jpg

 

Let’s get to your questions chicos and chicas.

 

-Siano

FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

Hey guys, keep up the great work! I have to chose between keeping David
Ortiz or Chipper Jones. We only start 9 bats and I also have Longoria
so whichever I choose is my Utility. It’s a ten team league 6×6 with OPS
if it makes a difference.

Go with Chipper. They are close enough in value that Chipper wins out because
he doesn’t kill you at UT. An injury at CI or 3B, you can move him and
that to me is the edge he has over Papi.

-Siano

31 Comments

photoshop ftw…

Does landing in a pitcher friendly park like the Ravine boost Wolf’s value a little or can we expect him to still be a 3-4 SP?

Hey guys, keep up the great work! I have to chose between keeping David Ortiz or Chipper Jones. We only start 9 bats and I also have Longoria so whichever I choose is my Utility. Its a ten team league 6×6 with OPS if it makes a difference.

I wouldn’t draft him in a mixed. Can be a very useful POD guy when at home against weak lineups or in pitchers parks like Petco. Max value is a 4 but even that’s a reach.

-Siano

finster,

Go Chipper. They are close enough in value that Chipper wins out b/c he doesn’t kill you at UT. An injury at CO or 3B you can move him and that to me is the edge he has over Papi.

-Siano

Any word on Cory’s projection spreadsheet?
Just checking in
Tampa Pete

Cory’s been pretty busy rescuing the President’s husband and clearing close friend Tony Almeda oh wait that’s jack Bauer.

Hey Guys…espn just came out with their $$$ projections, and on average, they are a lot lower than the MLB $$$ projections. Any thoughts? I play in a league that pre-assigns $$$ values to each player, then we do a standard draft. I was planning on using MLB’s $$$ projections to determine if players in my league were over/under priced, and draft players on that basis. Thanks-Bill in Chicago

Hey boys,
I know Espn might be the competition but I’m just interested in your opinions on some of the rankings discrepancies b/w the 2 sites… They have Markakis, Beltran and BJ Upton ranked 7th, 8th and 14th for OF while you guys have them 15th, 8th, 4th respectively. Thanks for the help as always!!

Sorry, no need to comment on Beltran as they are the same ranking. Just Kake and BJ ? Tks

Bill, every site is going to use different dollar values, but I agree that these are pretty drastic differences. What fun would draft prep be without becoming more and more confused as each day goes by! My best advice is to use the site that gives the highest values when mapping out a desired team. This way, you’ll know for sure that drafting this team could be a reality. Each auction will undoubtedly play out in its own unique way, but should the prices turn out to be lower than expected, you’ll be pleasantly surprised as opposed to bitterly disappointed.

Zach

I have a question for the Fantasy Tribunal. 10 team 6×6 (OPS and Hold) I need to select 2 keepers for up to the next 3 seasons. The catch is that they had to be drafted in or after the 10th round of last years draft with a one round bump in value each season (10 becomes 9th next season, ect)

My list and round taken last season are:
Milton Bradley (25th)
JJ Hardy (21st)
Matt Kemp (13th)
Cameron Maybin (19th)
Ian Stewart (25th)
Justin Upton (17th)

Jon Broxton (14th)
Clay Kershaw (25th)
Brad Lidge (15th)
Fransisco Liriano (10th)

Since the breakpoint was the 10th round, there arent many guys to trade up to and if so, a 2-1 wouldnt help because we can only keep 2.

Thank for your help and great work!

cpowell, no need to trade up, this list looks fine to me. I’m going to pick Kemp and Lidge here. Both are flat out steals at those round values. Kemp’s combination of power and speed and tremendous upside makes him at the latest a fifth or sixth rounder in scratch drafts while Lidge is a top five closer who will provide a ton of strikeouts. Passing up on Hardy’s power for a 21 is tough, but Kemp and Lidge are clearly the best choices.

Zach

Hey guys,

I’m in a NL-action keeper league where I’ve some players to make decisions on. I know keeper leagues typically inflate $ values compared to non-keepers, but would you keep the following at these prices:
Glaus – $16
S. Drew – $26
Spaz Matsui – $15
Gerut – $10
El Caballo – $40
Fred Lewis – $10
C. Patterson – $6
Spilborghs – $5
Chris Perez – $5
We use $250 to fill out 14 position player, 11 pitcher rosters, and I already plan to keep 6 other pitchers totaling $43 and 1 position player at $1. We can keep up to 15 players total.
BTW, Dream Weaver gets an NRI by the Dodgers and there’s no discussion about the fantasy impact? Where’s the love? With Saito gone that closer spot is clearly up for grabs!

Thanks for the knowledge,

Scotty Mac
Seattle, WA

is that Abreu’s chemically inflated dome on the hood of Razor Ramon?…lol.

Hi guys,

Quick trade question.

I’m being offered Manny and Holliday for Braun. Manny being Manny, and Holliday being in the worst AL park for RH HR and Avg, has me thinking ‘No’ – waddya think?

Cheers,

Steve in the UK

hey guys, keeper question.

i’m in a 10 team mixed 7×5 keeper, OPS and batter Ks against as the extra categories.

I get to keep 5. My first four i’m pretty set on:
Hanley
Utley
Teixeira
Lincecum

Which of this group should be #5? I’m not able to make a trade.
Russ Martin
Alex rios
Victorino
Peavy
Hamels

thanks!

Scotty Mac, the only guys I’d hold onto are Perez and maybe Drew. The chance that Perez closes makes him worthwhile at $5. Drew at $26 is about face value but if you know that a lot of shortstops will be kept, you might want to consider hanging onto him.

Zach

Billy Koch (of the 11 win, 44 save season), I’d go with Martin and lock up that C spot. You already have Lincecum, so I’ll definitely lean towards a hitter, and Rios and Victorino are borderline but not great keepers in this format.

Zach

Steve, I agree that you should pass. The fact that this is a keeper league makes all the difference. In a single season league, I would probably do it, as I have no problem with Manny being Manny as long as he goes .300-35-120, and though I think Holliday won’t run as much in Oakland, a good hitter will put up numbers anywhere. But Ryan Braun should be off limits in 99.999% of keepers, and this situation is no different.

Zach

Guys, I need major help. I’m inheriting a team in a 12-team NL-only Keeper league. Max team salary at the draft is $280. I can keep up to 15 of the 25-man roster. My dilemma is that the team is starved for pitching and stacked on offense. But my offense is also expensive:
Pujols – $46
Rollins- $48
B. Molina – $12
S. Drew – $22
Those guys represent what I consider the core of my offense, but they are nearly half my team salary. The next tier of players are fairly priced, but I don’t think I can afford them and draft decent pitching:
Ankiel – $20
F. Sanchez – $19
M. Cameron – $17
B. Giles – $15
I’ve got 3 pitchers carrying over:
Qualls – $10
U. Jimenez – $5
J. Cruz – $5
Add all this up and I can’t afford to complete my roster. I need 7 more pitchers. So my question is, do I throw Pujols, or more likely Rollins, back into the pool even though they anchor my offense? Or do I throw back all those guys in the next tier for some draft money? Either way, I think I’m definitely looking at LIMA time.

Thanks for your help, guys. Been loving the show for years!

– Chad in Champaign, IL

yes that is razor ramon and I KNEW A WEAVER SIGNING WOULD GET sCOTTY mAC OUT OF HIS CAVE!!!!!!!!

oops on the caps.

cory will be on later to answer your questions I gotta head home, wifey make din din tonight, mikey hungry.

-Siano

I’m hibernating Siano… I only stick my head out for important events like pitchers and catchers reporting for Spring Training (and Dream Weaver sightings!).
Follow up question… I have Capps in this NL keeper league @ $9 and need to make a long-term contract decision. He’ll stay at $9 in 2009 but will increase by $5 each year after and I can sign him up to 3 additional years (thru 2012, when he would be $24) but my fear is he won’t be a closer that long. He’s signed by the Pirates through 2010, arbitration-eligible in 2011 and FA-eligible in 2012, so what is the optimal contract to sign him to the way the Pirates churn through relievers?

Thanks for the knowledge,

Scotty Mac

Scott Mac, welcome back, just like Dream Weaver! Capps had an excellent year when healthy, so you have him a nice discount this year regardless of contract. If I’m reading service time correctly he is already arbitration-eligible but won’t be a free agent until after the 2011 season, so that would be the max extension I would give him. However, what are the odds of any closer holding the job reliably for five straight seasons, or that he’ll lose it via ineffectiveness or injury or a trade away from the Pirates as he becomes more expensive? His track record suggests performance won’t be an issue, but the other two are never a given, so I’d go for this year at $9 and next year at $14, and let him go after that. To guarantee him at $19 means he’d have to be the closer and have to have an excellent year to give you a profit; lock him in for two years at a clear discount and then cash in your profits.

–Cory

Chad, I don’t think you are in as bad shape as you think money-wise: if you keep all 11 of those guys, that’s $219, leaving you with $61 for 14 players. You’ll definitely end up with a stars-and-scrubs type roster, but with Pujols and Rollins you clearly have the stars. The problem is, you are paying a hefty premium on pretty much every one of your key players.

I would definitely let go of Freddy Sanchez… his decline over the past two seasons makes clear that $19 is no bargain for him. I’d also cut loose Ankiel, who gives you good pop and perhaps a decent AVG, but not the all-around game that salary would warrant. I like his power upside but he’s risky in terms of playing time and health, too.

Dropping those two leaves you with $100 for 16 players… not a ton of money but certainly enough that you can get two or three solid starters and then fill in with useful players around them. If you need more savings, I think Giles would be next on the chopping block, but he still has strong AVG/OBP skills and should score a good number of runs, so I think $15 is a reasonable unmixed keeper cost for him.

I hope that helps!

–Cory

Steve in UK, I agree with Zach, pass on that deal. You’d be getting Manny to take the downgrade from Braun to Holliday, which is a very fair return, but in a keeper league, you’d rather just hang on to Braun. Very fair offer though.

Billy Koch, again, I agree with Zach. All of those guys are solid keeper options, well worth a “5th round” slot, but Martin is the best all-around player for fantasy purposes and would probably go first in a scratch draft. Any of those guys would make a fine first choice once your draft starts again.

However, I must respectfully disagree with Zach regarding Scott Mac’s keepers. Perez at $5 is rock-solid, but I think $26 is too much of a premium for Drew. I don’t think his K/BB ratio supports the AVG from last season, and he doesn’t steal. If the AVG drops and takes the runs and RBI’s with it, you’re looking at $26 for a .275/22/75 season… he’ll hit, but things have to break right to earn that salary. I’d let him go and try to get him back cheaper.

However, I think Fred Lewis ($10) and Ryan Spilborghs ($5) are both worth consideration based on how spring training shakes out. Absent a Manny signing, Lewis should play every day in LF and provide a good AVG and ~20 SB’s, plus 10 or so homers… he’s very solid in an unmixed league. Spilborghs will have to fight for playing time in LF and CF, but if he gets 400 at-bats he could hit .300 with 15-16 homers and 10 or so steals, making him a steal at $5 in an NL-only league.

Thanks,
Cory

Tampa Pete, I’m still on target for the 15th with the composite projections spreadsheet. We might end up with a slightly different mix of sources from last year, but it’s all anonymous anyway and I think the new ones look very solid at a glance. Monday at the latest.

Thanks,
Cory

im not going to chose jones or ortiz im going with A-Rod…

http://junior13.mlblogs.com/

What about Glaus at $16? It seems reasonable, but are the concerns about his recovery from injury enough to say “no” at that price? Gerut is a no-go because of his spotty track record, Matsui I’m guessing it’s the consistent inability to stay healthy, and Patterson would be general suckage combined with too many other options in the Nats OF. El Caballo seems overpriced at $40 (yes, I did pay that much for him last season, but I might’ve gotten value out of him until he got injured) as does Drew (sorry Zach).

Scotty Mac

I have a question that i am hoping either Cory, Mike and/or Zach can answer for me. I am just starting my second year with a 14 team 27-man roster keeper league, where we keep nine players.

Should positional scarcity only be for the first say 6-7 rounds or should it be used to pick keepers, then used again for the next 6-7 rounds before switching to rankings and roster/category requirements?

Thanks,

Scot

Hi Guys,

One further question. My previous question established you’d keep Markakis over Haren (other keepers are A-Rod, Tx, Longoria and Soriano). I also have Brandon Phillips – would you keep him over Markakis? I had previously discounted him, but now I’m wondering if that’s the right choice?

Appreciate your thoughts.

Cheers,

Steve in UK

Scott Mac, Glaus could miss half the season so there’s no way you keep him for $16.

Scot, you should generally look to keep your “best available” keepers regardless of position, but you have to evaluate your opponents, too. If it appears that there won’t be a lot of good shortstops on the market, for instance, you might be more inclined to keep one that you otherwise wouldn’t. On the other hand, if it looks like there will be a lot of depth at 3B, you should cut loose one who’s on the fence, since roster spots have value. But ultimately keepers are first and foremost a value proposition.

Steve, Phillips is probably a bitter fit for your team position-wise and provides more speed, but I think Markakis will be the more valuable player this year in terms of stats. There’s a good argument to be made for either but I’d keep Markakis.

–Cory

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