2009 composite batting projections

OK folks, I promised you some projections on February 15, so
here are the 2009

composite batting projections: 2009_batting_comp_projections_021509.xls

* I am still working on
the pitching projections and should have those done in another day or two. Please read last
year’s post for several caveats regarding the projections, and here are a few
more:

 

* There are seven projections used again this year, but a
different mix of sources from last year, which collectively appear to be
slightly more conservative overall;

 

* Unlike last year, when the minimum number of projections I
used for any player was two, this year I’ve bumped it up to three to focus on
guys with a wider consensus view. Plus these are the guys most likely to actually
appear in the majors this year;

 

* Use these with a big grain of salt: some of them were
generated in December of January, and don’t necessarily reflect latest updates
as far as transactions (Bobby Abreu), injuries (Troy Glaus) or playing time
allocations;

 

* Teams are listed as of today and ages are rounded to the
nearest year as of Opening Day;

 

PHP48E267EBEE6A8.jpg

* As noted above, these projections appear to be somewhat
conservative overall, so I would suggest everyone evaluate any particular
player’s stats in context of other players. For instance, some people may
expect Stephen Drew (right) to hit more than 18 homers this year, and he very well
might. But he projects for the fourth-most homers among shortstops, behind
Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta, which sounds about right. Context is king, folks!

 

* On a related note, it’s actually kinda fun comparing
projections for some players who are appear to be very heavily hyped going into
draft season (such as Evan Longoria, Matt Kemp and Chris Davis) with comparable
guys who don’t seem to be getting the same level of attention right now (Aramis
Ramirez, Alex Rios
and Adam LaRoche, respectively). Keep these comps in mind on
draft day!

 

I look forward to everyone’s comments. Happy Valentine’s Day
and happy 61st birthday to the Penguin, Ron Cey!

 

Thanks,

Cory

 

26 Comments

This has quickly become my most anticipated tool of the draft season. This is what everyone should be using to prepare for their draft. Thank you once again for sharing the information.

Thanks Cory. I woke up this morning thinking “hey, he said he’d pull this togeher by md-February – maybe it will be on the site”. As usual, you didn’t disappoint.

Mike in Rochester

Cory,
I love you man. (in a straight way)

TP

Hey Fellas!

I just have a quick closer question. I just read a little press release on Joey Devine, saying that he’s withdrawn his name from the Team USA roster at the A’s request. ESPN thinks it’s because the A’s want to limit Devine’s work in the spring to be the closer. How much should I read into this?

Thanks!

Davis in Mass

Hey,

I watched all year last year, and finally got my account on this blog.. you guys are great! Anyway, I have a question. How good do you think Verlander and Gallardo are going to be in a keeper (dynasty) league 5×5, and would you trade Lackey and Capps to receive Verlander and Gallardo? I’m tempted, but I already have good pitching (hitting is my weakness) and this is pitching for pitching, but it sounds like it might be good value in a keeper.

Thanks,
Rustam (Queens)

Dave, my read on this is that Devine and Ziegler will compete for the closer job in spring training; Ziegler has the advantage of being the incumbent but Devine is probably the favorite to win the job for the long-term. Mychael Urban wrote on the A’s website that the two are expected to share the job, so both should have value this year in any format.

Rustam, the answer is… it depends. How many do you get to keep? Any salary attached to them? Lackey/Capps for Verlander/Gallardo seems like a lateral move, in that you give up the best SP, and a solid mid-tier closer, for two good young pitchers with keeper value. That’s all well and good but I think it’s just rearranging deck chairs.

–Cory

Trade Question-
Is Carlos Marmol for Cole Hamels a good deal? I also have Soria, so Marmol isnt a huge loss as a RP. My other starters are: Haren, Garza, Lowe, Price & Wainwright. Thanks.

I know that they are much different players but for five keepers out of this list, who would you pick?

Lincecum
Jeter
Longoria
M. Cabrera
Utley
Kinsler
Crawford

Thanks,
Kyle

Killa, I would do that deal. Marmol is still unproven as a closer and as we know, the road to 5th place is lined with closers of the future! Hamels on the other hand has some workload concerns after last season’s postseason run, but otherwise looks like a borderline elite SP. I definitely pull the trigger here.

Kyle, this is a great list of options, but since you can only keep five it looks like Jeter and Crawford are the odd men out, since they would go last among this group in a scratch draft. However, Crawford in particular is worthy of top-5 round pick, so you might want to see if you can package him with Utley or Kinsler to get an elite OF, perhaps Sizemore. Either that or just let him go and make him your first draft pick.

Thanks,
Cory

Thanks Cory. That was my initial list, I just felt that I was buying to the Longoria hype! However, if everyone else does too then you are right I can pick up Crawford and maybe Jeter again.

Since I’ll be keeping Lincecum should I wait to pick up another good pitcher or look to try and dominate?

Kyle

Go for a 2nd SP when it’s good value. Getting a “2nd ace” could make you very strong in several categories, but you don’t want to overplay your hand… I had Johan and Carpenter in ’07 in NFBC — both at the lowest cost in terms of draft pick of any NFBC main event league draft — and still struggled with SP all season.

Re. Longoria, yes there is major hype over him right now, but that’s why he’ll go before Crawford in most drafts. How ’bout this… Longoria + Crawford = Wright?

–Cory

Thanks again. And nice job with the projections.

Been listening for a long time, keep up the great work.

Beautiful! Thanks!

Thanks for the batting composites. I feel like I can fully get into draft prep now. I fear for my backside, as my time spent on it is about to increase dramatically. I’d like to apologize to it ahead of time. Sorry, buddy. Time to take one for the team.

Thanks Cory, this is an awesome tool. Quick trade question – I just traded Joel Hanrahan for Ryan Spilborghs in a 16-team, $260 auction, points league. Both are at $4 for 2009. What’s your take?
Allan in SA

Cory, Zach, and Co. –
The pre-season shows, the list of 12 discussions, and the projections have all been great so far – I’m excited to see what you guys have in store for the big pre-season show at the beginning of next month!
I have a strategy question for you… when playing in a H2H league, would you value either rate or counting stats any differently than if playing roto? It seems to me that if, say, Adam Dunn is only chewing up 20-25 ABs out of a total of 250 or so ABs each week, would you say that his abysmal BA is less of a factor?
On the other side of the mound, what’s your opinion on closers in a H2H league? It seems to me that more good innings could be had each week at a much lower draft day price if closers were virtually ignored, and then even more attention could be given to putting together a deadly arsenal of bats in the early round.
Any insight here is appreciated, as always!

Thanks for the sheet, Cory!

I must be unique since I have a problem with keepers. :)

For 6th round value, who would you keep of V-Mart, Atkins or Lackey, or would you take the slot? These guys seem to be projected all over the place between different projections…

Regards,
Bertil from Sweden

Allan, I’ve gone on record already that Spilborghs is undervalued this year, but for the same price I’d rather have Hanrahan. Even if he doesn’t get a ton of saves (although he should be good for at least 25 or so), he’ll post bigtime strikeout numbers without hurting the ERA or WHIP too much. Spilborghs could post strong numbers given enough at-bats, but the OF crunch in Colorado makes him risky. Sorry, can’t endorse this trade.

Chi100, I think you value players the same as in roto if you are using the same categories. The key in H2H is to have a balanced team so you can compete in any given area without overdoing it in any one category, and you also have to carry enough SP depth to make sure you can matchup with your opponents. It’s very difficult to “pitch or ditch” in weekly H2H leagues. As for Dunn in particular, his AVG is just as damaging in these leagues, and still needs to be offset with the Ichiro types, but as in roto leagues, his HR/RBI numbers balance that out.

Bertil, I’d rank them as you have them, although I’d rather wait another round to get any of them.

–Cory

Cory, great job with the batting projections. Can’t wait to see the pitching list.

YOU DA’ MAN!!!

Brian in NH

Cory,

Is there any way you can share how you use the projections to come up with $$$ value’s for players?

Thanks again for the projections!

Bill in Chicago

Thank you Cory for the hard work. Now I am going to do my best and split this baby up to AL and NL.

Anyone know where I can get a fantasy baseball draft simulator??

In a Al/Nl H@H league, trade offered:

Gallardo, Dunn, Sherzer for Ervin Santana, Bedard, and BJ Ryan.

What do you guys think?

Bill, I haven’t gotten to that stage yet, I have to finish the projections first.

Fadeaways, I’d probably pass on that deal. You’re giving up the best starter (at least for now) in Big Erv, plus a closer who will give you good SV and ratio numbers even if he doesn’t throw as many innings anymore and therefore won’t help much in K’s. Bedard and Scherzer are both gambles this season, Gallardo has a bright future but has to stay healthy first, and Dunn is a 2-1/2 category player, not worth much more than Ryan. This isn’t a terrible offer, but I’d be more inclined to do it in July or August if I was rebuilding, as opposed to doing it in February when you should be thinking about contending this season.

–Cory

Awesome tool just in time for my many drafts, Thanks!
http://kmcleod.mlblogs.com/

Nice stuff… good reference tool.

http://prospects.mlblogs.com/

— currently running top 5 prospects by team

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