2009 composite pitching projections

As promised, here are the 2009 composite pitching projections (click here: 2009_pitching_comp_projections_021609.xls) to go with the composite batting projections I posted over the weekend.

The usual caveats apply to these projections so there’s no reason to re-state them here. However, there is one more important note to make, regarding closers. Note that some guys who will be closers this year, such as Heath Bell of the Padres, have relatively low saves projections. That’s not because each site projected Bell with 10 or 12 or 14 saves and it averaged out to 12, but because a few sites that released their projections earlier might have projected him with only one or two on the assumption that he would not be the closer.

Heath Bell Pic.jpgTherefore, saves projections are ultimately a measure of confidence more than anything else: if you think the guy will be the closer all season long, project 35 or more saves. If you think he will share the job or lose it at some point during the season, projection 15 or so. If you think he’ll be a backup closer or setup man at best, project five or fewer saves.

(Quick aside regarding Bell… I think he’s going to have a big season and is a good value pick as a #2 closer in mixed leagues. And while I generally discount the annual spring training rite of story-telling — “I had lasik surgery,” “I’m on a macrobiotic diet,” “I worked on a new batting stance,” etc. — Bell thinks he’s in better shape then ever this season thanks to his Wii Fit. Corey Brock has the full story on Padres.com, check it out.)

In any case, always remember always that saves are a zero-sum game, so if someone is getting them, that means someone else can’t get them.

Enjoy!

Thanks,
Cory

10 Comments

You da man!

Does anyone have or know a competitive league that I could join? I emailed the fantasy baseball mafia site that was mentioned here but they don’t seem to want to reply to my emails. Don’t really enjoy playing the yahoo public leagues and the league with my buddies isn’t too fun anymore.

I have been away from a competitive league for a couple of years due to players “retiring” and now I am in need!! Please let me know with a reply on this blog. Thanks in advance!

Does anyone have or know a competitive league that I could join? I emailed the fantasy baseball mafia site that was mentioned here but they don’t seem to want to reply to my emails. Don’t really enjoy playing the yahoo public leagues and the league with my buddies isn’t too fun anymore.

I have been away from a competitive league for a couple of years due to players “retiring” and now I am in need!! Please let me know with a reply on this blog. Thanks in advance!

Thank you Cory! While the focus is on pitchers, which Aaron Harang do you think we’ll see this year, the ’07 or ’08 version? Thanks.

Finster, I think Harang is a very good bounceback candidate this year. Check his stats from last season broken out into three distinct sections:

G ERA IP AVG K/BB HR/9
11 3.50 74.7 .258 3.50 1.21
11 8.41 55.7 .343 2.60 2.59
8 2.83 54.0 .250 3.17 1.50

The first one is his first 11 starts of the season… vintage Harang. The middle one is his ill-fated relief outing in San Diego on May 25, plus his next 8 starts before going on the DL, plus his first two starts after coming off the DL. Obviously not good. But the last 8 starts are how he finished the season, presumably after getting back into the groove after struggling in his first two post-DL outings. The K/BB and HR/9 rates aren’t as good as the ERA suggests, but clearly he was back in form down the stretch.

It’s a little too easy to selectively parse any player’s seasons into chunks like this to try and tell a story, but I think in Harang’s case the data does fit the story: the relief outing screwed him up for a good long while, but once he recovered, he was the Aaron Harang of old. He’s a good gamble for this season.

–Cory

Hey Cory,

Love the composite projections! Is there any way for you to add some additional statistics (such as HRs allowed for pitchers and CS for hitters) in future versions? I’m sure your sources provide various statistical info and not all of them provide such info for the same categories, and I don’t play in any sabermetric leagues but am trying to incorporate sabermetrics more into my draft day analysis. Also, a column for which league the team they are playing on is in (or “N/A” for FAs) would be beneficial for people who play fantasy in AL- or NL-only leagues (although this is also easily inserted by the masses).

Thanks,

Scotty Mac

Scotty, I would’ve included HR and CS had more projections included them, but most did not. I can easily add the league ID though.

–Cory

Cory, great work as always my friend. I’ll be sure to reference this before and during all my drafts.

Fantasy Baseball Mafia is accepting new Members to fill and create new Leagues. If you still want to join a League, email FantasyBaseballMafia@hotmail.com and we’ll contact you very shortly.

If you’ve previously emailed another Fantasy Baseball Mafia address and did not receive a response, I apologize for the inconvenience.

Best regards,

Jay
Technical Advisor
Commissioner League 4
Fantasy Baseball Mafia
http://www.fantasybaseballmafia.com
FantasyBaseballMafia@hotmail.com

Thanks for the projections. They’re the only piece of my “preparation puzzle” that I can’t get myself. I work with several spreadsheets when I draft but the main one has every player with their stats from each of the last 4 years (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008), 3 year average and the composite projections you provide. Basically, I have a 5 year picture on every player. (Other sheets include a spreadsheet with projected depth charts, a sheet with projected lineups and a sheet with last years teams in case I find an owner tends to pick the same players year to year).

I find that, along with my daily preparation of listening to podcasts, reading fantasy411.mblogs.com and reading news from several sites including MLB.com, I’m well prepared going into my drafts and have access to all the information I need as I’m drafting.

Marty

Marty, I’ll see if I can put together something like that for the blog crowd, too!

–Cory

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