Fantasy 411 Q&A: Feb. 17, 2009

The only news out there bigger than A-Rod’s presser is me and Cory rocking the mic for a Tuesday extravaganza. We’ll talk Reyes moving out of the lead off spot (not sure I buy this 100% yet), also chat about the same thing possibly happening to Alfonso Soriano and then Jason Collette of Ownersedge.com joins us to talk about his first ten picks in our mock draft and his switch from NL only to AL only in Tout Wars this year.

 

wrightreyes_1.jpg

FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

Which Aaron Harang do you think we’ll see this year, the ’07 or ’08 one?      

I think Harang is a very good bounceback candidate this year. Check
his stats from last season broken out into three distinct sections:

G ERA IP AVG K/BB HR/9
11 3.50 74.7 .258 3.50 1.21
11 8.41 55.7 .343 2.60 2.59
8 2.83 54.0 .250 3.17 1.50

The first one is his first 11 starts of the season… vintage
Harang. The middle one is his ill-fated relief outing in San Diego on
May 25, plus his next 8 starts before going on the DL, plus his first
two starts after coming off the DL. Obviously not good. But the last 8
starts are how he finished the season, presumably after getting back
into the groove after struggling in his first two post-DL outings. The
K/BB and HR/9 rates aren’t as good as the ERA suggests, but clearly he
was back in form down the stretch.

It’s a little too easy to selectively parse any player’s seasons
into chunks like this to try and tell a story, but I think in Harang’s
case the data does fit the story: the relief outing screwed him up for
a good long while, but once he recovered, he was the Aaron Harang of
old. He’s a good gamble for this season.

–Cory

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18 Comments

Hey Guys. I posted under the pitcher projections earlier, but thought I’d re post in the Q&A question post. Which version of Aaron Harang do you think we’ll see this year? Any chance he’ll come close to what we saw in 2007? Or will it be more of 2008? Thanks.

Finster, I just replied on the other thread just now, check it out!

–Cory

Hey,

I’m in a 5×5 mixed league with 8 keepers and I am having trouble deciding who to keep, who I should try to trade, and who I should trade for.

Here are my choices:

Hitters
Brian McCann
Carl Crawford
Ian Kinsler
Ryan Braun
Hanley Ramirez
Grady Sizemore
Nick Markakis
Alexei Ramirez
James Loney
Jay Bruce
Edwin Encarnacion
Joey Votto

Pitchers
Johan Santana
Jonathan Paplebon
Tim Lincecum
Bobby Jenks
Rich Harden
Carlos Marmol
Gavin Floyd
Zack Greinke
Brad Lidge
Max Scherzer
David Price
Yovani Gallardo

Thanks,
Galen from Washington

Galen, this can’t possibly be more than a 4 team league. How exactly were you able to draft these guys? Anyway, my top 8 would be Hanley, Sizemore, Braun, McCann, Kinsler, Johan, Lincecum, Papelbon. Normally, I wouldn’t keep more than one SP, but Johan and Lincecum are ranked 1 and 2 on most lists. Pretty much all of your other players have tons of value, specifically Crawford and Markakis. I’d send out an e-mail saying that everyone outside of Hanley, Braun, Sizemore, and maybe Johan is available. Third base, first base, and perhaps even outfield seem to be areas where you can build more depth, so why not work separate package deals to get an A-Rod, a Pujols/Miguel Cabrera, or a Upton/Beltran/Soriano? Give it a try, because it would be a shame to let go of all these players for nothing.

Zach

Upton for josh hamilton? ive got bay, reyes, morneau, kinsler as my other 4 keepers. its a 14 team h2h, mixed league.

scoring goes like this: there are 8 hitting categories, 5 major categories worth 2 points each to the winner of the category (10 points) and 3 minor categories worth 1 point per category (3 points). Total points up for grab is 13. The major categories are hmr/rbi/runs/steals/ave and the minor categoreis are walks/double+tripples/strikeouts.

Im thinking of keeping upton bc of the steal combo of kinsler/reyes/upton cant get any better plus there is alot of runs, power, and average in my keepers.
Thanks,
Aaron in Texas

Hey everyone. Thanks for all your advice so far this offseason. I’ve just finished making my preseason trades to conform to the rules of my keeper league, and have ended up with a pretty full lineup, which, I think, will give me a lot of flexibility in the draft to fill in holes. My 7 keepers are as follows:
1b – A. Gonzalez
2b – B. Roberts
3b – A Ramirez
SS – S. Drew
OF – Granderson
OF – Sizemore
OF – Hart
I pretty much traded away everyone with value on my team, so I now need to prepare for the draft. Any suggestions as to how I should spend my first few picks. There is 1 catcher and 1 util in my 5 x 5 (OPS instead of average) league.

Thanks

Aaron,

Hamilton just may have a better 09 than Upton but in a keeper league I’d rather have Upton. Add the fact that they both play the same position so that’s a wash and your minor cats I’d take my “chances” with Upton. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it type approach.

-Siano

Scott,

This is a pretty good list but as with most keeper lists it could be better. I really like that you filled out your INF and have a very solid if not spectacular OF. I wouldn’t mind seeing you go after boppers and closers early and then address your starting pitching. The wild card here is catcher. It really helps you only have to think about 1, but I’m guessing most are protected. If I am wrong then get one of the top 4 on your radar. if they are gone just push catcher down your to do list and get a mid tier guy later in like the 12th or 13th round (for you the 6th or 7th)….

-Siano

Hey Gents,
Thanks for the projections! I’m trying to find some particular value – for the last few years I’ve had Zack Greinke and have been happy with him as a 2 or 3 starter. Now I’m looking for the next Greinke, so stats wise it could be Cain, Meche, Nolasco. But they are all going close to the same spot as Greinke, say in rounds 10-11. Who can you think of in the later rounds of a draft that have a good shot of producing Greinke-like value?
Thanks!
Jeff in Berkeley

is that Wright and Reyes pic from the cover of the new issue of “D-bag Monthly?” I kid, I kid.

Who’s a better keeper candidate in a 12 team mixed auction league. All 3 players are at $1. Mike Pelfrey, Dustin McGowan, or Chris Perez.

Thanks!
Brian in Philly

Brian, I like Perez, and think that he can make the biggest immediate impact of the three. It sounds like Perez will get the first shot at closing for the Cards, and closers are generally more valuable than middle of the road starters. McGowan’s health status is still up in the air while Pelfrey, though a nice upside pick, doesn’t strike guys out and has yet to show top of the rotation type potential. Saves are saves, and it’s worth a buck to see if Perez can get them.

Zach

Guys,

Do you buy any of the fantasy magazines out there to help with your preparation, or do you basically on use web-based tools?

Just wondered if I should shell out a couple bucks for a magazine…

Bill in Chicago

Bill, speaking only for myself, the only publications I bother with are Baseball Prospectus and the Baseball HQ Forecaster. To be fair though, it’s been so long since I bothered reading any of the publications, and there are so many out there now, that I really can’t say if any of them are any good or not. I simply don’t read them. If you’re reading BP and the Forecaster, and doing your homework, you should be all set anyway.

–Cory

Bill,

I pick up the rotowire magazine for two reasons. Last year Jeff Erickson wrote how he won Tout so I thought it was good prep since I would be competing with him in 08 in AL tout and honestly I just like having the 08 stats and games played at a position handy since I am in 2 AL only leagues and you never know what weird players you have to look up and my brain isn’t a computer like Cory’s. In a mixed league I think the magazines are not as useful if at all since you can print off just about anything you need, but for an auction non mixed I like having it on draft day.

ps Foxsports.com sent me their mag for free so I’ll give them the plug but I haven’t opened it yet.

-Siano

Jeff,

I’m a Cain fan and Cory is a Nolasco fan, but you are right they are too close to greinke. here are some names for later on.

Maine
Harang
Sanchez
Cueto
Perez
to name a few……Siano

Guys,

quick question.
I’m in a 6×6 league, extra cats are OPS and holds.
OPS is new for me so my question is:
How do I value hitters in an OPS league?
Generally, does OPS favor sluggers like Fielder, combo hitters like Pujols, or Runs guys like Reyes?
Thanks for your insight,
Tampa Pete

Regarding Jeff’s question and Mike’s response about later round SPs to target- any thoughts on John Smoltz, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Armando Galarraga?
-Dan in LA

How did we stray so far from the original topic? Cory, I like Harang did get closer to his ’07 numbers but I don’t believe he’ll quite reach them this year. I’m still worried about his confidence. Does HE still feel like he can be an ace and how much is a bad season going to affect him? Having said that I think people have somewhat given up on Harang looking at his ADP. For where he is generally going in drafts he should have some good value and good be a really good deal in auctions.

Chris Mulligan
FantasyPros911.com

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