Fantasy 411 Q&A: Feb. 18, 2009

We are expecting word on Glavine and Junior but the fantasy impact is minimal. I started getting hot and heavy with my AL only auction prep on train ride home yesterday and it reminded me about why I do like to buy at least one magagzine each year. Much easier to look up previous year stats and position eligibility on the train. I can’t be surfing the web with all that stuff on my lap……….Siano

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FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

Hey Fellas!

I just have a quick closer question. I just read a little press
release on Joey Devine, saying that he’s withdrawn his name from the
Team USA roster at the A’s request. ESPN thinks it’s because the A’s
want to limit Devine’s work in the spring to be the closer. How much
should I read into this?

Thanks!

Davis in Mass

My read on this is that Devine and Ziegler will compete for the closer
job in spring training; Ziegler has the advantage of being the
incumbent but Devine is probably the favorite to win the job for the
long-term. Mychael Urban wrote on the A’s website that the two are
expected to share the job, so both should have value this year in any
format.

-Cory

17 Comments

Regarding Jeff’s question and Mike’s response about later round SPs to target- any thoughts on John Smoltz, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Armando Galarraga?
-Dan in LA

Mike,
I get my Roto info from Baseball HQ and from you and my cousin Cory. So, I never buy one of the many Fantasy Guides that are written months before the season starts.
However, I picked up a copy of Fantasy Baseball from Fanball.com in the West Palm Beach airport about three weeks ago since I had nothing to read on the plane.
Reading their synopsis/projection of Johann Santana showed me why not to buy these mags.
…Cy Young caliber season… worst strikeout rate of his career…drop in velocity…no longer a power pitcher…
we might have seen his ceiling… not nearly the pitcher that he was during 2004-2006…
Then they project 22 wins, 221 Ks, 1.10 WHIP. Hello!
In fact, they have everyone of their top 12 pitchers winning at least 17 games.
No more fantasy mags for me.
Gil from Manhattan

Guys,

quick question.
I joined a 6×6 league, extra cats are OPS and holds.
OPS is new for me so my question is:
How do I value hitters in an OPS league?
Generally, does OPS favor sluggers like Fielder, combo hitters like Pujols, or Runs guys like Reyes?
(For instance, would you draft Reyes over A-rod or is Wright a number one pick.)
Thanks for your insight,
Tampa Pete

Gil

I never said I read the articles or the blurbs, I said I use it to get position eligibility and previous season stats and that its easier for me to thumb thru it alphabetically then to print it all out or surf my iphone. I’m indifferent on whether anyone buys them or not.

-Siano

Dan in LA,

I absolutely love Smoltz in an AL only this year and definitely think he has mixed league value but because he will start season on DL and the question was a comp to greinke I left him off. Ubaldo and Armando are ok picks, but Coors plays a role and Little Cat doesn’t have good K’s and has only had one good year. I also see I had Cueto there. I kind of regret that now even though I think he could have a good year and has K potential.

-Siano

Siano I will post a GxP and position eligibility list on the blog in a couple of days so you won’t have buy any more of those abysmal magazines!

Dan in LA, all of those guys are reasonable late-round targets and all have their merits, but none are without flaws. Smoltz of course comes with health concerns, but, is usually above-average when healthy. Galarraga has a so-so strikeout rate and is homer-prone, but was solid and consistent last year nonetheless. Jimenez has some serious control issues and pitches half his games in Coors, but posts big-time strikeout numbers, too. They all represent different combinations of risks and rewards so picking one is a matter of taste.

–Cory

Tampa Pete, OPS comes in different flavors but in general it favors power hitters… a walk only helps in OBP, but a homer helps OBP and SLG. It also gives low-average sluggers a boost because they generally draw a lot of walks, too: Howard, Dunn, Giambi, Thome, Swisher, etc. I’d probably go with Pujols #1 in an OPS league because of his ungodly OBP’s.

–Cory

Thanks Cory for the response.
I have the third pick in the draft so I am planning on Pujols and Hanley to go 1-2. Who would you pick at 3 in OPS?
A-rod, Wright, or Reyes, or other?
Thanks again,
TP

Mike,

Nice to see u were on an updated LIRR car..that was moving at a good clip!

Rich from Syosset

I actually like to buy at least 1 “fantasy rag” a year as well. It serves a few purposes, the first being another source of reading during private time in the little archivers room. The other is I can usually get a feel for what the mainstream of so-called fantasy experts think. It’s easy to forget sometimes that there are alot of people out there who think reading/relying on those books is actually being a “serious” fantasy player.

Btw, is anyone else starting to get that little twitter of excitement in their tummy? Today it really hit me, it’s almost BASEBALL SEASON!

-JA, who has an active tummy.

Pete, I’d still probably go A-Rod here, he hits for a good average and draws a lot of walks, so his OBP and SLG will both be strong, plus I think he’s (still) a better bet than Wright to have a truly monster season. Reyes is a SB stud, but not so much with the walks and OBP.

–Cory

(Forgive the re-post, but this wasn’t answered on a previous entry.)
I have a question about using 2009 projections to determine a player’s estimated dollar value for auction drafts. Is there a “proven” or accepted formula that uses projected performance data for a 5×5 league and gives an estimated auction value? I’m looking at somethign that could help gauge a player’s value for the upcoming season to A) budget and look at different auction scenarios and B) know if a player is being under/over bid on in the auction.
(I’m going to be in a 10 team, mixed, keeper league, if that makes any difference.)

Thanks!
Eric in Cincy

Cory, Mike,
About the mock draft. Will it be completed by the start of the regular season? Thanks.

Yeah, I can guarantee it’ll be done by then! We’re currently in the beginning of Round 20. I’ll post an update either later today or tomorrow. It shouldn’t take more than another week to finish.

Zach

Zach, Thank you. The mock draft helps!

Eric, there is a formula to convert projections into dollar values, and I’m tinkering with it. I will try to post something in the next few weeks but in the meantime you can use the dollar values in the 2009 Fantasy Preview on MLB.com.

Zach, famous last words! :-)

–Cory

The Oakland situation is only one of many unstable closer battles. For a complete summary of the position I suggest you check out this article…

http://fantasysportsbeat.blogspot.com/2009/02/preseason-closer-report.html

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