Fantasy 411 Q&A: Feb. 20, 2009

From the ‘I’m Just saying Department”………

 

Below is an excerpt of Willy Taveras chatting with Hall of Fame scribe Hal McCoy

 “I didn’t play all the time last year, for some reason, “I can only remember playing one Sunday game all year. I can be a consistent hitter if I’m in the lineup. I know I can get my average up and my on-base average up. A leadoff hitter who plays every day can get 600 to 700 at-bats. I stole 68 with only 479 at-bats and a low average and on-base percentage. So yes, stealing 100 is possible if I get the at-bats and have a .350 on-base average. And I’m working on bunts and plan to bunt at least once a game.”

 

 

1193360113_4079.jpgI mentioned earlier this year that if Taveras can get his priorities about how he should be getting on base straight he could do some damage and way exceed his draft value. Right now he is going around the 13th round or so. It’s hard to call him a sleeper however when he led the land in stelas last year, but you see where I am going……………………Siano

FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

Guys, Some quick
advice on a keeper question? Which two of these three would you keep in
a 5 by 5 league, Alexei Ramirez, Chris Davis, Joey Votto.

Rob

Davis and Ramirez seem like easy picks to me. Potential big time masher
and Ramirez is looking very legit and getting drafted that way as well.
You can argue back that Votto and Ramirez are similar but the easy tie
breaker is Ramirez qualifies at 2B and MI.

Siano

36 Comments

Guys, Some quick advice on a keeper question? Which two of these three would you keep in a 5 by 5 league, Alexei Ramirez, Chris Davis, Joey Votto.

Rob

Of the following catching prospects not named Weiters how would you rank these guys going forward? Jeff Clement, Max Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Taylor Teagarden,and Buster Posey. Thanks.

Mad Hungarian

mango,

davis and ramirez seem like easy picks to me. Potential big time masher and ramirez is looking very legit and getting drafted that way as well. You can argue back that Votto and Ramirez are similar but the easy tie breaker is Ramirez qualifies at 2B, MI and will end up being **** by late April.

-Siano

Quick Mock Draft Central Question,

Does MDQ provide ADP reports for 6X6 leagues?
Or is the ADP report just the standard 5×5 for mixed and nonmixed?

Thanks,
TP

Hey Mike and Cory, I need some keeper advice. 12 team h2h, we keep 5 (1 must be an arm) losing the round they are projected to go per ADP. I’m keeping 4 bats, which are taking away my 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th, round picks. For my arms I have the option of keeping Webb with my 6th round pick (1st pick of the round) or Billingsley in round 8. Obviously Webb is the better pitcher, but should I keep Billingsley with pick 85 or Webb with pick 61. Their value difference appears to be about 40 picks, but wondering if their production for a H2H league is really going to be all that different. If I keep Webb, my first pick in the draft (besides the 1st round) isnt until pick 84, if I dont, I get to pick at 61 and 84. Thanks for your thoughts!

Hungarian,

For 2009

Clement: I really like him this year
Teagarden: Very good chance to beat out Salty and Ramirez
Ramirez: Can hit his way into at bats at other positions
Santana/Posey: Both are young with pros and cons and in a few years will probably be starters.

-Siano

TP,

There is a drop down bar on MDC but I don’t see 6×6.

-Siano

Wes,

Well thought out and I agree that the difference between Webb and Billingsley probably doesn’t outweigh the difference between having 61 and 84. 411 philosophy is to take bats early so to get a bat at 6 and Billingsley at 8 is a good idea.

-Siano

weschicago, I still like Webb here. I’m a big fan of Billingsley, but who knows what effect this leg injury could have on his early production. As impressive as he was last year, Billingsley still has some control issues which will keep his WHIP on the high side. Is it possible that Chad could ascend to fantasy ace status this season. Yeah. But for the two round difference, I’ll put my money on the guy who has done it year in and year out. While draft picks certainly have value, for the last three years, Webb has been the most consistent starting pitcher outside of Johan.

Zach

Hey there Experts!!!

10 Team, 5×5, mixed, Roto. Keep 10 without restriction.

I have Jose Reyes. I also have Alexei Ramirez and I’m trying to trade him. Figgins will backfill at 2B, at least for this year.

Which trade would you make in order to get Carlos Beltran:

Alexei Ramirez and Papelbon?

Alexei Ramirez and Halladay?

Would the following deals actually get it done for Beltran:

Alexei Ramirez and Volquez?

Alexei Ramirez and Lester?

Also, what about a straight up trade: Alexei for Vlad?

Thanks for all you help!!!

zebra, I think the Alexei/Papelbon package could very well get it done while the Alexei/Halladay one might. I doubt you can get Beltran with any of those two bottom packages, but float those out there. There’s always a chance. Of the four, the Alexei/Papelbon is the one I probably wouldn’t do…Papelbon’s just too much of a difference maker. As for Alexei for Vlad, pass. A fair deal, but Alexei has a ton of upside while Vlad’s in a steady decline.

Zach

NL 5×5 keeper auction, thinking about a trade. Who would you rather have McClouth at 10 or Sandoval at 1. Pablo is not C eligible w/ only 11 games last year but he only needs 1 “appearance” at C to make him eligible this year.

–Nate in Springfield

Nate, I’ll take Sandoval at a dollar. $10 for McLouth is nice value, but he’s only had one good year. Sandoval’s high ceiling at the C position makes all the difference, especially in a non-mixed.

Zach

Interesting day here on the blog. Zach disagrees with my advice to Wes and I disagree with his advice to Nate.

Nate I would go with McLouth. To me the difference in value saved on draft day with McClouth is greater than what you would save with Sandoval. In a NL only mock draft done by CBS Sports on 2/11 McClouth went for $27 and Sandoval for $11. Tough question. Let us know what you decide to do.

-Siano

Siano makes a good point on McLouth. Very close call here. If you already have one or two OFs who fit McLouth’s profile, it would make keeping Sandoval a little easier.

Zach

Count me in for McLouth at 10 over Sandoval at 1. I’m not convinced that McLouth is a fantasy stud, but I do think he’s a reasonable bet to give you 18-20 homers and as many steals, if not more steals, which certainly makes him a bargain. Sandoval for a buck is a great value for a guy who will be eligible at C/1B/3B and give you a decent average and some pop, but I still think their lineup is going to stink so his runs/RBI’s won’t be too exciting. Plus, let’s see if he makes the conversion to 3B, which could take a toll on his bat to some extent. He’s got great upside, but I’d rather pay the premium for the near-certain 20/20 season.

–Cory

Zebra, I would open the bidding with the “bottom” two packages, and the response should help you gauge how much your prospective trade partner values your players. If he says “hmmm, interesting but not enough,” you might be able to make it work without giving up Papelbon OR Halladay. But if he says “nope, not close,” then you have to put those other two guys on the table. I know Siano disagrees with me on this, but I don’t like to open with my “best” offer, because if I do and the other person doesn’t accept, my only choice then is to not making a deal, or overpay. Open with a solid, respectable offer and gauge the response, then counter offer appropriately. I think this improves — not hurts — your chances of making a deal.

–Cory

Going up to the first question… Rob, I may be in the minority here but I’d keep Votto over Davis because, quite simply, he’s the better player. Davis could be the new Adam Dunn, but that includes the downside as well as the upside. Votto looks like the next Derek Lee, and I mean that only in the good way: .300ish average, 25-30 homers, around 10 steals. Check out his improvements last year, as he doubled his walk rate in the 2nd half while holding his strikeout rate steady, and he hits lefties just as well as he hits righties. Davis on the other hand has monster power, 40-45 HR upside, but could strike out once every three AB’s and end up hitting .253 this year. Huge upside but big risk… Votto has more certainty. Certainly the 3B eligibility gives Davis an edge over Votto for this year, but over the long haul, I think Votto is the more complete offensive player.

–Cory

Hey guys,

12 team vanilla keeper league, we just keep our best 7 (no rounds attached). I have an offer on the table to receive both Johan and Papelbon for david wright.

im not in any great rush to trade dwright, but im thinking i might be better off getting a jump on the pitching categories with some studs (fully anticipating the trademark ‘you can find pitching later’ line in the reponse)

my keeper list is currently:
hanley
wright
bj upton
markakis
russ martin
alexei ramirez
pence

if i make this trade johan would replace wright and papelbon would bump pence.

any thoughts would be appreciated…

– greg, stuck on the LIRR

Greg, I have absolutely no problem with this deal. You’re getting the best SP and the best RP in the game in exchange for a top five or six player. Don’t get me wrong. Wright’s a stud, and is clearly the top player in the trade. But third base is perhaps the deepest position. If there was ever a position you could afford to lose a stud, 3B is it. Pence is a borderline keeper anyway, so don’t worry about letting him go. This deal greatly improves your keeper depth, and Johan and Papelbon are nice fits to the rest of your keeper list as they each address needed areas.

Zach

Greg,

3B may be the deepest position but there will also be 84 players gone. That being said if you are going to trade david Wright you better get some studs in return and you clearly did. Even though we say wait on pitching Johan is obviously the one to have as is Papelbon.

ps

Zimmerman, Huff, Encarnacion and Gordon are some 3B you may want to target, 3 of these guys are young and have some very nice upside.

oh and being stuck on the LIRR sucks I could tell some stories.

-Siano

in response to Cory’s response on Zebra’s question.

I was really curious about Davis this year and if he was just a Dunn type or what. I ended up having a detailed conversation with MLB.com minors expert Jonathan Mayo who told me that Davis’s .avg is legit and that he is more a .285 hitter then .250. He will one of the more interesting guys in 2009.

-Siano

Well guys personally I am leaning towards McClouth at 10 b/c I already have Iannetta at 1. I wanted to know in a bubble though, so I didn’t mention Iannetta. The McClouth/Sandoval was a trade.

I am trying to trade up because I have so many potential keepers but none are outstanding. We get to keep three — McClouth – 10, Brian Wilson at 1 (which has been discussed before here), Iannetta – 1, Chris Perez – 2, Maybin – 2, Delgado – 6 and Jimenez – 1. If Perez gets the closer role I could pretty much be in the mix saves wise for 3 bucks!!

The league has an offseason trade deadline of 2 weeks prior to draft day so it is difficult to pull a 2 for 1 after that.

One more thing guys, has anyone heard when fantasyauctioneer is going to be up and running??

Not 100% sure on fantasyauctioneer, but I’ve heard rumblings that it’s inactive for this season. ESPN has free auction leagues this year so that’s a good alternative.

Zach

Doesn’t CBS use fantasyauctioneer for their auction drafts?? Maybe that was a few years ago…

I will have to check out ESPN, I wanted to get a few mock auctions in…

More on Chris Davis… and not to debate with Siano, but to illustrate how stats and “scouting” have to work together. Davis struck out 288 times and drew 84 walks in 1045 minor league at-bats, the equivalent of about 152 strikeouts and 44 walks per 550 at-bats. So clearly this isn’t an Adam Dunn or a Nick Swisher or a Jim Thome, a guy who strikes out AND walks a lot because he’s working deep counts. However, Davis had a career .302 average in the minors, with 74 homers, or 39 per 550 at-bats. So clearly his struggles to make consistent contact didn’t prevent him from making solid contact… in fact, this pegs him more as an Alfonso Soriano type rather than one of those “three true outcome” type of guys. Compare his minor-league pro-rated stats (above) to Soriano’s MLB pro-rated averages: 33 walks, 119 strikeouts, 30 homers and a .282 average. So while Soriano is clearly one example of a guy who can maintain a strong average with a poor K/BB ratio, he’s also an exceptional case. Can Davis be another exceptional case? Mayo is not the only one who thinks so, and the stats back him up. But he would be an exception to a general rule… the more you strike out, the lower your average is going to be. We’ll soon find out!

–Cory

Pablo Sandoval will qualify at catcher this year in my league – what round should he go in based on that?
i don’t want to pick him too soon!
Bob in Oregon

Hey guys:
Kind of a general question I guess. Last year I won two leagues based heavily on a pair of last or near last round picks that I really thought would break out: Nate McLouth and Ervin Santana (I’m by no means a genius, since I also thought Andruw Jones would bounce back). Are there a few guys you think would be good targets like this? I guess you could call them “late round” or “undrafted” sleepers. Thanks.

-Dan in LA

Bob, as long as he’s catcher-eligible I could believe Sandoval going somewhere in the early teens… he’ll hit for a decent AVG and a little bit of pop, but I’m still convinced that lineup will provide many RBI chances. Something like .290-15-75 or so.

Dan, still working up my pitcher list, but I will say this right now for the world to see… Lastings Milledge : 2009 :: Nate McLouth : 2008. I’m serious.

–Cory

Hey guys.
Can you please remind me how many pitchers you use in a standard 5X5 vanilla league and what the acceptable IP limmit is?
Thanks, Tzvi in Israel

Is their a good trade evaluator tool out there that I can use during the course of my season?

Hey Siano…what is the big news for the 411?? Are you coming to the MLB network?

Tzvi, the typical roster alignment for a standard vanilla league is 14 hitters and nine pitchers, with a limit of anywhere from 1200 to 1500 innings depending on the nature of the league. I prefer a higher number rather than lower.

Tommy, there are two potential announcements in the works for the 411 but neither are ready for prime-time. Of course will shout them from the rooftops if and when the time comes!

Thanks,
Cory

Guys, I need a quick assessment of a trade offer I received. Things are moving fast and furious before the keeper deadline, so I want to get this done asap. 16-team, roster of 29, 7×7 (batter K’s, OBP, Holds, QS) $260 auction. The offer right now is that I give up Sabathia ($23), Jurrjens ($4) & Swarzak (minors) for Markakis ($15) and Chris Perez ($1 on a minors contract that escalates slowly). The alternative to this that I know the other guy will take is Hamels ($22) & Jurrjens for Markakis. My core pitching staff is CC, Hamels, Lester & Danks, and I have the option of keeping Lowe at $16 and Myers at $15. I need the hitter and it shifts my salary balance to hitting. Thank you!

Alan, I like this deal plenty. Markakis at $15 is at least as valuable as Sabathia at $23, especially given that OBP is a category. Jurrjens and Swarzak for Perez is a no-brainer on top of that. I’d pull the trigger on this deal without hesitation!

–Cory

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 256 other followers

%d bloggers like this: