Fantasy 411 Q&A: Feb. 23, 2009

Not a huge weekend as far as star power goes but we did have some dominoes fall. Orlando Hudson to the Dodgers, GA to the ATL and Joe Crede and his back to the Twins. We will get into detail on all of them on Tuesday’s show, but if you really can’t wait then ask away.

 

Did anyone watch the 30 in 30 shows on the Network? I think 60 minutes is 30 minutes too long and when watching the Twins I would have liked some more insight on what could happen in their OF this year since it is so crowded with talented players, but then again it is only February. What I thought was really interesting and I’m going to talk to Joe Sheehan about this today is that thenetwork used the Pecota forecast for standings. For a major network to not just have their analysts make blanket predictions in just it’s second month is a good sign to me. More details on that to come when I find out. Oh and not sure how many people care but hate that they use the opening song from Rescue Me.

 


carlos-gomez.jpgI will have some Listener League News in the next few days so keep an eye out for that.

 

My two cents on the Oscars since the only movie I saw was Dark Knight. I thought the best thing of the night was actually the Barbara Walters Special before the show when she interviewed Mickey Rourke, his take on what it would be like to win was classic.

 

-Siano

FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY


With all the hype
given to Wieters, Iannetta and Teagarden this year, are we overlooking
last years crop of up and coming catchers?

In a keeper league I have to decide on one of Napoli, Clement or Salty.

Napoli is the more established player but I can’t help but think
that Clement and Salty while flying under the radar this Spring, may be
ready to take the next step forward and actually outproduce those
other more hyped young backstops. Is the argument for Clement and Salty
valid or should I stick with Napoli at this point?

Thanks,
Robert


Napoli
probably offers the greatest degree of certainty in terms of both playing time
and production. Napoli will definitely be the number one catcher in Anaheim,
although Jeff Mathis will still see plenty of action, and he’ll hit plenty of
homers despite a medicore batting average. A best-case scenario for Napoli would
look something like one of Mickey Tettleton’s best seasons: 30 or so homers, a
.265 average and tons of walks and strikeouts. Saltalamacchia is likely to offer
the better batting average and also solid power, but his playing time is less
guaranteed due to the presence of Taylor Teagarden and hard-charging Max
Ramirez, who produced monster numbers in the winter leagues. Clement will rotate
between catcher, designated hitter and first base, but is coming off a knee
injury, was not terribly impressive in his MLB debut last season, and will be
hamstrung by a very week supporting lineup. Long-term he might be the best of
the bunch but he’s the least valuable of the three in non-keeper drafts this
year.

-Cory

 

30 Comments

Hey Guys,

I’m playing in a 16 team auction keeper league (5×5). I just was wondering how the league size influences the given auction values (12 team 5×5). Our offline draft is under way for a short time and people are overspending (Sizemore 40$, J. Santana 39$, Lincecum 41$, Reyes 44$, R. Howard 38$, H. Ramirez 45$). Is this a effect of position scarity in a 16 team league? I’m trying to be patient. Your opinion/strategy?

thanks,

Johannes from Germany

I’m drinkin’ that Kool-aid. We’re at pick 70 in my new dynasty league and I’ve passed on all the big names (Johan, CC, Lincecum, Webb, Peavy, Hamels). In fact, there are 11 SP’s that have already been selected. That brings me to the next level of pitching … who are your top 5 out of these SP’s for a staff anchor and how long would you wait on them (remembering there are 16 owners):

Javier Vazquez
AJ Burnett
Scott Kazmir
Chad Billingsley
Ervin Santana
Dice-K
Yovanni Gallardo
Edinson Volquez
Jamie Shields
Cliff Lee
John Lackey
Zack Greinke
Ricky Nolasco

Thanks in advance!
Big Mike

With all the hype given to Wieters, Iannetta and Teagarden this year, are we overlooking last years crop of up and coming catchers?

In a keeper league I have to decide on one of Napoli, Clement or Salty.

Napoli is the more established player but I can’t help but think that Clement and Salty while flying under the radar this Spring, may be ready to take the next step forward and actually out produce those other more hyped young backstops. Is the argument for Clement and salty valid or should I stick with Napoli at this point?

Thanks,
Robert

Big Mike, my top five would be, in order, Lackey, Dice-K, Shields, Billingsley, Santana. In a 16 teamer, I would wait until at least late fourth round for Lackey and mid fifth and later for everyone else.

Zach

Peeps, I made an offseaon trade sending Evan Longoria packing in exchange for CC Sabathia and Jay Bruce. Thoughts on this one?

Jay
Technical Advisor
Commissioner League 4
Fantasy Baseball Mafia
http://www.fantasybaseballmafia.com
FantasyBaseballMafia@hotmail.com

Here’s Cory’s answer to Robert:

Napoli probably offers the greatest degree of certainty in terms of both playing time and production. Napolis will definitely be the number one catcher in Anaheim, although Jeff Mathis will still see plenty of action, and he’ll hit plenty of homers despite a medicore batting average. A best-case scenario for Napoli would look something like one of Mickey Tettleton’s best seasons: 30 or so homers, a .265 average and tons of walks and strikeouts. Saltalamacchia is likely to offer the better batting average and also solid power, but his playing time is less guaranteed due to the presence of Taylor Teagarden and hard-charging Max Ramirez, who produced monster numbers in the winter leagues. Clement will rotate between catcher, designated hitter and first base, but is coming off a knee injury, was not terribly impressive in his MLB debut last season, and will be hamstrung by a very week supporting lineup. Long-term he might be the best of the bunch but he’s the least valuable of the three in non-keeper drafts this year.

Jay, I like that deal for you. While Longoria could very well go .280-35-110, Bruce can just as easily go .270-30-100. Longoria’s clearly the more polished hitter at this point, but the addition of a true ace in CC is certainly worth the downgrade from Longoria to Bruce.

Zach

I understand that the show isn’t LIVE anymore, but is that also meaning that it isnt ever going daily again?

Also, will full length (longer than 16 minute-type) shows ever be making a comeback?

I’m having 411 withdrawals! Who can I go after in management to get you guys out of your offices and into the studio more often?

Keep up the good work…just wish more of it was on the podcasts.

Leon,

We go daily in April. Pitch or Ditch will be posted on the Blog in the AM so nobody misses out. The show length is TBD but figure an average of 15 minutes per show. On a big news day we can definitely go longer.

-Siano

Johannes,

The bigger the league the larger the inflation for stars and specialists. people are scared to death to miss out on getting a first round type player or #1 starter and closer that the bidding reflects that. Here is the top 100 from MLB.com and their $$$ values it’s not as crazy as you think but could get crazier.

http://mlb.mlb.com/content/printer_friendly/mlb/y2009/m01/d28/c3780762.jsp

the key is getting guys you want and having a very good backup player if you miss out, patience is good but there is a dangerous degree of patience as well. You definitely want some studs though and nothing will kill you more then leaving money on the table.

-Siano

Mike, thanks for the update, but APRIL? OUCH!

Who’s brainchild was this? We need you most for Draft Prep in March!

A non-fantasy player must have determined this schedule!

Big Mike,

I would get ready to pounce in a few rounds max and go back to back for sure since I think this group is so strong you can get at worst a soft ace and super #2 out of it. I removed some of the guys I wouldnt go after just yet and added Verlander. I’d put Erv, Lackey, Dice-K and Greinke near the top with the rest breathing down their necks. Full disclosure I think Lee will go to high this year but if you can get him as a #2 or #3 then I like it.

Chad Billingsley
Ervin Santana
Dice-K
Jamie Shields
Cliff Lee
John Lackey
Zack Greinke
Verlander.

-Siano

Leon, this is partly my call, with the revamped blog we feel we can help you guys just as much with any questions you have. We may have some surprises in March but the economy is not helping. I appreciate everyone wanting more of the show, but I’d also appreciate people repsecting the decision and not rushing to judgement.

-Siano

Hey Guys,
I am in a 12 team Head to Head points league with the points being HR=4, 3B=3, 2B=2, 1B=1, SB=2, R=1 and RBI=2
I just made the pick of Jayson Werth and I was debating between him and Lastings Milledge. Did I make the right choice and how do these two players compare.

Thanks, Kampy

Guys-
Similar question to Big Mike’s. Twelve team dynasty defending champ. Trying to reconstruct my starters but can only keep one:

Matt Cain
Zach Greinke
Jon Lester
James Shields

After reading the new Baseball Prospectus I’m spinning my choice of these guys on a daily pinwheel. I love’em all.

Also, do you see Brandon Wood getting significant playing time this year?

Thanks for all the help.
Greg

Kampy,

Off last years stats this is pretty much a wash but Milledge had more at bats. However I think Cory will agree with me that it could again be a wash but the chance for Milledge to have a breakout season is greater and we could also argue this will be the best Werth ever is. With all that said I don’t have a problem with Werth being picked over Milledge since it is a safer pick and in a non keeper that is ok. They have almost identical ADPs by the way. 135 for LM and 139 for JW. So don’t sweat this one even though it was a good comp question.

-Siano

Kampy, Milledge and Werth are ranked 41 and 42 respectively on MLB.com’s preseason rankings, so this is about as close as it gets. In my mind, the difference between the two is that Werth will give you a few more homers while Milledge will steal some more bags. Considering your league’s scoring and without knowing your specific needs at the time of the pick, I too would’ve probably gone Werth. Better team, better park, more 4-pointers.

Zach

Greg,

Wood has some sleeper value but he needs to make contact and only time will tell on that. i thought about him for all sleeper team but shied away at last minute.

Much like Big Mike this is a good list. I love all four of them.

Lester should get the most wins. Cain the most K’s but Greinke has the best shot at being the best across the board. I’d go for Greinke but anyone who says Lester won’t be wrong. I was checking out ADP and it’s odd to me that it goes Shields, Lester, Cain and Greinke but that could be chasing wins.

Here is a sortable on all 4.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?c_id=was&section2=null&statSet2=null&sortByStat=SO&statType=2&timeFrame=1&timeSubFrame=2008&baseballScope=mlb&prevPage2=1&readBoxes=true&sitSplit=&venueID=&subScope=pos&teamPosCode=1&box12=XXXX430912sfnX&box15=XXXX425844kcaX&box31=XXXX448306tbaX&box39=XXXX452657bosX&compare.x=29&compare.y=6

-Siano

Guys,

Mixed 14-team Head-to-head (5×5 roto stats, not points)

In combination with Jose Reyes, rank the following for the 2009 season only:

Manny, Markakis, Kemp, Bay, Rios, and Quentin

Ichiro and Crawford were thrown out of contention, because of Reyes. Bad idea? Or am I right in mildly devaluing SB if I already have Reyes?

Love the podcasts and composite projections! Keep it up!

Looking for a little “name game” type analysis assuming a 5×5 12 team snake draft…who is the better choice?

Carlos Pena or Joey Votto?

Kelly Johnson, Jose Lopez, or Rickie Weeks?

JJ Hardy or Derek Jeter?

Votto will hit for a much higher AVG than Pena, and while he might fall short in homers, he’ll provide the better all-around production and has room to grow. Johnson is my choice among the second basemen. I’m very high on Kelly this year and view him as an upper tier 2B who can be had for a bargain price. He’ll post anywhere from 12-18 homers, double digit steals, and nice AVG and runs totals. Lopez has yet to show consistency from season to season and Weeks single-handedly kills your AVG. The SS comp is a tight one. I’d personally go Hardy due to the superior power numbers but I can see why some may choose Jeter for his runs and AVG.

Zach

Hey guys,

Any chance of the 411 getting some airtime on the MLB Network? I love it so far… the 30 Clubs in 30 Days has been very insightful, and it’s great to catch up with the Hot Stove every day. But so far there is a lot of repetition… understandable given the infancy of the Network. And I’m sure they could squeeze in at least an hour of S-cubed (that’s “Siano”, “Schwartz” and “Steinhorn”) instead of FOUR hours of a game from 6/23/84 between the Cardinals and Cubs. Talk to your agents, get the contract signed!

Regards,

Scotty Mac

Random thoughts on much of the above:

* Scott Mac, thanks for the love but I’m pretty sure MLBN has their hands full right now trying to produce an 8-hour live show every night! Rest assured though, we will be ready to answer the call if and when it comes.

* asashoryu, I agree with Zach’s picks, but beware… Votto seems to be flying up the draft lists and might end up overhyped by draft day. I do think he can do something like .300 with 28-30 HR and 8-10 SB’s, but still, don’t overpay. Conversely, Jeter is not the player he was a year or two ago, but I think he’s undervalued in the 9th round, where he seems to be settling in. **** who can hit .300 with 10 or so HR’s and SB’s, and 90-100 runs, is a great value there. And I remain a big Kelly Johnson fan, he’s all upside.

* Siano has never heard of tinyurl.com

More to come…

–Cory

More…

* alll, I would rank those OF’s as follows: Quentin, Markakis, Kemp, Rios, Bay, Manny. Markakis is probably the best all-around player but Quentin’s power upside makes him the better fit. Then again, Markakis could hit .320 with 25 HR and 10 SB’s, and that plays in any format!

* Greg, Siano’s analysis is of course spot-on but if I had to rank them it would be Lester, Shields, Greinke and Cain, in that order. Lester absolutely turned it on after struggling with his control early on and looks like one of the top 10 pitchers in the AL right now; Shields is pretty much the finished product, and it’s pretty good, but Lester has the better chance of being dominant. Greinke looks a lot like Shields to me, and has great K upside, but Shields is a year ahead of him on the curve. Cain is more promise than results at this point.

* Kampy, most projection systems have Werth comfortably ahead of Milledge this season due to his power upside, and that gives him a clear edge in your scoring system. But I will say this… as Siano noted, I think Werth is already as good as he’s going to be, but I’m convinced Milledge can approach what McLouth did last year… maybe a few less homers, but the overall development and production spike can be very similar.

Thanks,
Cory

What’s up 411,
Looking for some opinions on trading players and draft picks before keepers are kept or draft order is chosen. I have an abundance of young keepers and am only allowed to keep four. Have been unsuccessful in 2 or 3-for-1 trades so far.

A few teams gutted their youth movements to make the title run last season. How do you feel about trading a young player, that I probably won’t keep (i.e. Nelson Cruz in the last round), and a draft pick (10th) for a higher draft pick (5th, for arguments sake) from another team. Is this something that you think should be allowed? If so, what kind of jump in draft pick do you think would be fair for a guy like Nelson Cruz or Chris Davis (both in the last round)?

Also, when do you anticipate those positional previews coming on-line? Keep up the great work. Looking forward to you guys going daily.

Andy in Taipei

Hey guys.
I just sign up for a deeeeep H2H 20 team 40 man roster dynasty league.
I have never drafted in such a monster league (most until now has been 14 teams 25 man roster).
Do you guys have any tips on how to draft in such a league? Or do the old rules still aply here?
Thanks, Tzvi in Israel.

Random question, I would be interested to hear your votes for the top 5 fantasy seasons for a single player of all time. Just watching the ‘Baseball’ documentaries by Ken Burns and interested to know how some of those guys might match up to A-Rod in 2007 for example.
Also, what would you project for C.Guillen and where would you be drafting him in a 12 team mixed. Looks like he has potential for similar numbers to Gordon or Zimmerman at 3B, but might go much later.
Cheers.

Andy, I definitely think that those types of trades should be allowed as the clearly serve a purpose for both sides. However, unless you’re out of it at the time of the trading deadline, I’m always an advocate of playing to win now rather than acquiring young keeper options who may or may not pan out down the road. Why wait a full year hoping that things will turn around when you have a chance to compete?
The MLB.com positional previews are already available.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/preview/y2009/index.jsp

Zach

Gimme trade advice if you would. I have a chance to trade Cano for Matt Holliday. I’m aware of the starts ecah have gotton off to but also think it’s a loooong summer. I also own Pujols and would love to own the 3-4 punch in St Louis. Do you think Holliday will pick up the pace?

Gimme trade advice if you would. I have a chance to trade Cano for Matt Holliday. I’m aware of the starts ecah have gotton off to but also think it’s a loooong summer. I also own Pujols and would love to own the 3-4 punch in St Louis. Do you think Holliday will pick up the pace?

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