Fantasy 411 Q&A: March 2, 2009

Just when I thought baseball was right around the corner, we get a snowstorm today here in New York.  The winter hasn’t been too rough on us though, so can’t complain. 

While New York City public schools are closed for the day, we here at the Fantasy 411 blog never take any time off.  Our viewers/listeners are too important.  So fire away!

-Zach

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FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

One guy I don’t hear too much about anymore is Adam Jones. Did he
do anything late last season to indicate he is worth a pick in a 12
team mixed league?

Scott

Adam Jones is on some buzz lists this year after a hot summer (.302
with 5 HR and 31 RBI in July/August), but I’m not on board. He was flat
awful the rest of the time (.248 with 4 HR and 26 RBI in the other four
months), and has major strike zone issues (108-23 K-BB ratio). He’s
very young and talented and may have a bright future, but it’s not now.
Don’t buy into the hype just yet.

-Cory

32 Comments

I am in a ten team mixed league H2H with five keepers(Hanley, Aramis, Holliday, Martin, and King Felix). I probably will have the fourth pick and was debating on drafting McClouth or another pitcher like a Halliday, if available, or A.J. Burnett. My curse has always been a lack of skill in placing round value with players. Do you think my current strategy is a good start? By the way, I noticed no Travis Snider in your mock draft. No one in your draft even thought he was worth a try? I ask because I was looking to him sleeper pick in the late, late rounds.

Cory, I’m sure this has been asked too many times to count, but I’ve searched all over this site and can’t find anything about when your daily shows will start up again? I love you guys, and I was totally bummed when you cut it to a half-an-hour last season, b/c I thought it ended up feeling rushed.

Thanks, Chad in Rochester, MN

Cory, I listened to you on blogtalkradio.com the other day with Jeff Erickson. Good job! You and Jeff spoke of rookie-itis issues and I was wondering about guys like Alex Gordon and Troy Tulowitzki. I really thought these guys would be on top of things buy now, but they have been slower to get past rookie tendencies than expected. Do you project a breakout year for either of the two?

So in other words, Adam Jones is about as helpful to my team as a March blizzard is helpful to my morale. Got it. Thanks!
–Jeff
http://redstatebluestate.mlblogs.com/

Greetings Fantasy411,

I’m in a 10-team mixed 5×5 H2H league that allows up to 4 keepers every year. I finished 4th place last year despite my roster, and need some help with my keeper list. I know that Cory preaches over and over again about trading keepers to get few, better keepers, but we cannot trade in the offseason before the draft.

Here’s the list I need up to 4 from:

Cole Hamels
Francisco Rodriguez
Miguel Cabrera
Jose Reyes
Ryan Braun
Matt Holliday

Thanks!

– jason

Hey guys,
Local area teacher stuck home on a snow day…poor me.
What is the ceiling this year for Matt Kemp? Can he be a .290, 25 hr, 90 rbi, 90 R, 25 steal OF? I am in a 12 team mixed and have the #1 overall pick. I was looking at maybe taking Kemp with the 2/3 swing pick. Too early?

Cory, you also mentioned a few times a combination of numbers you look for out of your top three picks, what are the numbers?

Thanks

Hey guys, been listening for a year now, just never really went on the blog.
My league already drafted (we’re kind of competitive). It’s a 5×5 mixed head to head league with 3 util spots. I’ve already been offered Kemp and Zimmerman for Beltran. The rest of my OF players are Bay, Dunn, Bruce, and Werht, and my current 3B eligible players are Chris Davis and Cantu. Do I make this deal to have a reasonable backup in case Davis fails, or do I just keep my guys and hope Beltran goes back to 2006 form? Thanks!
-Matthew

Malik, I don’t really view King Felix as a fifth round player (especially in a ten teamer), and would if possible rather take the draft pick. If Halladay somehow falls to you, I’d much rather have him. If it’s Halladay vs McLouth, I’ll go Halladay. Burnett vs McLouth, go McLouth. I’m not touching Burnett this year under any circumstances.

Zach

Chad, not sure about a definite date, but the daily show will return in time for the start of the regular season.

Zach

Hey Guys,
This is my first year doing a dynasty league and I was wondering if you draft any differently than you would in a regular draft. This one happens to be an auction, so should I bid on younger guys with huge upside or still try to get the best player no matter what age?
Thanks, Davis in Mass

Will the MLB.com rankings and auction values be updated before the season begins? I’m sure some values have changed since the preview was put together.

Thanks!
Eric in Cincy

Jason, keep the four hitters. A case could be made for K-Rod over Holliday considering that you’re keeping all bats, but Holliday will go first in every scratch draft and isn’t a guy you want to leave unprotected.
Matthew, I don’t do that deal. As much upside as Kemp has, there is some risk involved in overvaluing him. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he goes .290-25-90-30, but I view that as really a best case scenario. Beltran’s a known commodity, a legit #1 OF who will give you impressive across the board production. Zimmerman could very well have a bounce back year, but is he a better option than Davis. I don’t think so. Even if we say the 3B tradeoff is a wash, I’d much rather have Beltran than Kemp.

Zach

Hey Mike & Corey,

I didn’t listen much last year but good to hear that the economic maelstrom hasn’t caught up with you boys sheltered in Fantasy Land. Have to say I think I liked being able to call in better but, hey, beggers can’t be choosers!

So I took the plunge and for the first time ever joined an auction league. I’m used to draft leagues so I’ve gotta get my learning on. I inherited a team in a 4×4 NL Only keeper league and can keep up to 14 players. $260 cap. I’m planning to keep these 10:

Brandon Philips $23, James Loney $10, Andre Ethier $13, Russel Martin $20, Yadier Molina $2, Dan Uggla $20, Corey Hart $16, Edinson Volquez $4, Brian Wilson $10, and Chad QUalls $1. $119 out of my $260

And I can keep four more out of these:

Carlos Delgado at $20 (expensive but I don’t seem to have much power)
Elijah Dukes at $10
Chris Carpenter at $10
Dan Haren at $34 (expensive but he’s an ace)
Chris Young at $16 (or I can pay $21 and extend him for two more years)

Which four of five would you keep? Also, do you like my list of 10 or am I going into this new league with too few dollars to spend on available guys like D Wright, L Berkman, and J Peavy.

Thanks!
Pat in San Diego (formerly of Minneapolis)

P.S. Sorry for mis-spelling your name, Cory. Like I said, I’m used to calling in … not writing!

Pat,

Not a huge fan of leagues that “want” you to keep that many players, like you said it leaves you with less money to go after stars or does it? If you are not required to keep 14 and don’t feel like they are a great value then don’t! throw them back in and use the cash. Would you trade Dan Uggla and Andre Ethier for D. Wright? I bet you would so in theory by not keeping them you can go get Wright. Also what stats are being left out since it is a 4×4?? Runs and Saves?

With all that said this list isn’t bad at all. Haren at $34 does seem high so you are taking a risk you can’t get him back at a lower price. The rest seem fair value or good bargains. Like I said weigh some guys you feel you could live without and put that money back at a first round type guy like Wright.

-Siano

Eric,

I’m not sure but will ask.

-Siano

Dave,

Great question and tough one. Do you draft to win this year or find that secret balance? Cory and I did a dynasty league the past two years and some owners obsessed over 19 year old guys in single A. Others ignored them all together and we flipped them for guys we could trust. All three approaches have risks. I would go after young players who are in the majors like Price, Maybin, Wieters, LaPorta etc.. but don’t overbid , I’m sure the guys I mentioned will go for the same as some established guys do to hype and age, but remember flags fly forever and there are hidden gems out there, do your work and stick to your budget to win this year.

-Siano

It’s BA, RBI, HR, SB and ERA, WHIP, SV, W.

We have to keep at least 9 players but no more than 14. So that said, which of the 9 are the best values in your eyes?

the plan is to start going 5 days a week with the show Monday April 6th…..Siano

Matthew,

Kemp is really not that far behind Beltran anyway and Zimmerman as a quasi throw in really intrigues me. I can argue that Kemp has a similar or better year to Beltran’s and if Zimmerman bounces back you destroy the other GM in this deal. Granted you have Davis but you also have good OF depth so while this isn’t a no brainer it’s pretty close. If you like Kemp’s ceiling for 09 and Zimmerman’s bounce back potential you could be creating more trade chips in Zimm and /or Davis. There is almost no way you can lose in this trade on counting stats even if Zimmerman only plays some CO or UT for you.

-Siano

Tsimonitis,

snow days good.

Kemp’s numbers could be better then you predict even if just by a little. Are you technically reaching on Kemp with that wheel pick? Yes since his ADP is 39. Will he be around when you pick again? I’d be shocked so while he may not be a 25th pick your hands are tied that you don’t pick again until 48. This becomes the it’s not a reach if I like the guy theory since your “stuck” with the #1 pick. There will be good players for you at your 4th pick but Kemp is a guy that if you take him there you are not crazy. Granderson and Victorino are OFs that come to mind.

-Siano

Hi Kevin,

The short answer to your question is yes. The 2009 Fantasy Preview is updated throughout Spring Training. For instance, if/when shortstop Orlando Cabrera officially joins the A’s, his blurb, picture, statistics and auction value will change accordingly. Generally, the bulk of updates being made are major ones, based largely on injuries, player movement or dramatic depth-chart developments in camp. Hope this helps.

Thanks.

– Alex Cushing, MLB.com Fantasy Editorial Producer

Glenn in Portland here. It’s been a while since I’ve been able to listen, so I hope I’m not speaking to something that everyone else knows, but…

I’m curious if there is a “Tentative 10″ this year. I’m looking for some breakout pitchers to target in the later rounds.

I’m still basking in the glories of past tentative 10ers Dan Haren, Chris Young that helped me take the title in my keeper league 4 of the last 8 years.

Has this already been posted, and I just missed it? Perhaps a re-visit is in order.

I am in a 5×5 h2h keeper league. i recently completed a trade that involved me acquiring brandon phillips for volsquez because i dont think he can keep it up this year and last year i picked him up off of free agency. I already had kinsler at second but i needed another bat and one with speed is what i preferred. My question is do you think that is fair trade because i already have a solid pitching staff and thought volsquez was expendable. your thoughts would be wonderful.
Thanks andrew in boston

Andrew, I aint no fantasy expert but i predict everyone will say you do this trade 100 times out of 100… 2b is shalow and philips is going 3rd-5th round. volquez is nothing near that… asuming you have room to play both philips and kinsler you won here big time, and if you can’t you can trade one of them for an ace….
But let’s hear what the experts have to say :-)

Tzvi in Israel

One more question for the day…
In my league, one of the members couldn’t make it for the Yahoo! live draft so he was autodrafted and he got Scherzer. He dropped him in favor of Huston Street. I have number 2 waiver priority and I know for sure the number 1 guy isn’t going to grab him. Should I use my waiver now, or wait until later in the season for a possible Tommy Hanson callup?
Thanks again, Matthew in Southern California

Mike –

AL-Only 5×5 12 team Auction $260, OBP instead of Runs

Danks at $10 or Giambi at $14

Thanks
TJ

Hey gurus,

How do you rank this year’s stud closers and why? Are you concerned with Mariano and most recently Joe Nathan’s shoulder issues, and how about Lidge’s forearm?

Thanks,
Another Mike

Hey guys,

I’m in a new 10 team, 8×8 league (XBH, OPS, TB, L, QS and K/BB extra cats), which we’ve set up by picking 7 initial Keepers from a groups of teams – I got the MIL/CLE/COL group, and took Sizemore, Peralta, V-Mart, Braun, Fielder, Hart and Tulowitzki.

I’ve been offered Dan Haren plus the first pick in the draft (which would be Carlos Beltran) for Ryan Braun. My question is, should I do it?

I see this as a chance to get a stud pitcher (given I have no pitchers yet) whilst having to drop from Braun to Beltran for the price.

I know in a snake that Braun is going 9, Beltran 22 and Haren 55, which would make me think ‘No’, but the extra pitching stats play to Haren’s strengths – I’m approaching ‘Paralysis of Analysis’!

What would you recommend?

Cheers guys,

Steve in the UK

Hey, guys –

I’m sure that I’ve heard this announced before sometime back in January, but is there an official “Mike and Cory 2009 Preview Show” that’s slated to air in the near future? Along with BP’s subscriber content and the list of 12, it’s one of those things that I can’t wait to see each Spring.

Thanks!

Chi100, that will be posted next week. We dug deep into the draft to find some good late-round values for ya, and threw eggs at some guys who you don’t want on your roster given their current price tags. Hang loose, it’s coming soon!

–Cory

Patrick… no worries, my name has been spelled worse! :-)

–Cory

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