Fantasy 411 Q&A: Mar. 4, 2009 (Cory’s Latest, Greatest Projections!!!!!!)
Hey folks, I haven’t been posting much lately so when I speak up I want to make it count! So, here are updated projections for both batters and pitchers, now including eight total sources and as many new categories as I could reasonably include…
This is the last set of projections I’m going to post but I hope to post a spreadsheet soon including the various tools I use to convert projections to rankings.
Excerpting from a response posted to a question posted on another recent chat Q&A thread, here’s the step-by-step nutshell for doing so:
* Build your stat projections for each player;
* Figure out the top “x” number of guys that will be drafted at each position and overall;
* The best undrafted player then becomes “replacement level”… he’s the best player on the waiver wire;
* Figure out roughly how many of each stat are needed to win each category and how many the last place team will have, using last year’s standings as a guide… i.e., first place has 300 homers and last place has 180;
* Divide the difference between the first-place total and the last-place total by the number of teams in the league… for HR, that’s 300-180 = 120, divided by 12 teams = 10 HR. So 10 HR’s are worth one point in the standings;
* Divide the difference between each player’s total in each stat and the replacement level total… so if Pujols has 35 HR and the replacement-level guy has 15, that’s 20 HR;
* Divide that by the amount of each stat needed for one point… in the case of HR, it’s 10, and Pujols is projected for 20 HR above replacement… 20/10 = 2.0 points in HR;
* Do that for each stat for each player and then sum them up for total “standings gain points” for each player;
* Rank descending by SGP and voila, you have rankings.
(The same basic logic applies in rate stats categories but you have to back out the H/AB, etc., to calculate individual SGP’s. For example, in the AVG category above, .2881 – .2662 = .0219, divided by 12 is .001825. Then figure out the baseline H/AB and sub in each player to see how much above that his AVG would lift you.)
This isn’t really as complicated as it sounds; the real trick is correctly anticipating who will be drafted in each league. But then again, as you get further from the top, the difference between drafted and undrafted players is very minimal.
Well folks I hope this helps. I’m a little behind schedule in my draft prep but I’ll post what I can when I can, all leading up to the NFBC main event at 1:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 21.
P.S. – I’m gonna go answer some Q&A questions now, too! :-)
FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY
Hey guys, awesome work. I have a trade/keeper question for you guys.
I’m in a 12 team H2H league where we keep 5, 1 must be a pitcher (I’ve
written in on this league before). My keepers right now are Berkman,
Bay, Beltran, Ellsbury, and Billingsley. I got offered King Felix and
Pedroia for Berkman. The league has proven very difficult for trading,
so improving keepers is tough. With Berkman still putting up nice
numbers, but I would think on the decline, should I make the trade now
to upgrade my future keeper in Pedroia? I dont like trading for the
future, but making a trade in this league is almost legendary, so the
time to strike would be now. Just want to get your thoughts on the
deal. I probably wouldnt keep Felix, but the deal would just be to get
Pedroia. Thanks for your time and effort!