Fantasy 411 Q&A: March 6, 2009 (News Galore)

Editor’s Note: We just shot a new show and Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus joined us. Check out his latest column of Under the Knife on A-Rod.

Could there have been any more news yesterday? Between A-Rod, Manny and even a little NFL shocker with TO it was a wild day. When we shot the show yesterday it was literally 10 minutes after the news had broke on A-Rod’s potential hip surgery. We decided to go on knowing number one that this was just the beginning and number two stories weren’t even posted on the web yet, not even ESPN.com who broke it electronically before editorially. Now that we have some more news since the Yankees have spoke and the experts have weighed in from the medical field Cory and I will jump in the studio this afternoon and shoot a new show just on A-Rod. Look for it around 3pmish ET.

 

 


fantasy_g_arod1_480.jpgIn other news…….

Anyone still looking for a league to join that is recognized by the 411 just head on over to Tony in Hitchin and Jay at the mafia site. Below is the info from Jay.

We are still filling Keeper Leagues for 2009 as Mr. Siano has indicated and they are spawned of the vanilla Fantasy 411 Leagues often referenced on the show. Email Tony and I and we’ll slot you in.

Most Leagues have been going 3 years strong, so you can count on active participation and a high level of competition.

The Mafia Constitution can be found here:

http://www.fantasybaseballmafia.com/fbm/fantasy-baseball-mafia-constitution/

Our contact details are below.

Jay
Technical Advisor
Commissioner League 4
Fantasy Baseball Mafia
http://www.fantasybaseballmafia.com
FantasyBaseballMafia@hotmail.com

 

also

tomorrow is the FantasyPros911.com telethon on blogtalkradio.com starting tomorrow. Click here to find out all the info you need. Cory will join the show at 2:40pm ET. I will be on during the 411 sponsored 6pm ET hour. Looking forward to it.

lastly

some sad news out of Connecticut. The Connecticut School of Broadcasting has shut down due to financial issues. I was a CSB grad in 1997 and I owe much of the success I have today to the place. It gave me a chance to hone my producer skills and meet the people that eventually brought me over to MLB.com. I’ll be celebrating my 9 yr anniversary at MLB.com this June 5th and it all started at CSB.

-Siano

AP090222075344.jpg

FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

How are things going to iron out in the Minnesota OF/DH with Span, Young, Cuddyer, Gomez and Kubel?

I think one of them will be traded. Even though Young is the most
discussed, I have a feeling it’s Span or Cuddyer, but right now
Gardenhire will do the best he can to get them some run and when a
lefty pitches Kubel will sit and Cuddyer will DH is my prediction. An
injury would help solve this problem so they probably will wait until
Spring Training is over so they don’t jump the gun.

-Siano

I agree with Siano on this one… Gardy is very resourceful about getting all of his bats into the lineup. Kubel does not hit lefties particularly well, so he’ll share DH AB’s
with Young and Cuddyer, and of course Gomez could stink his way out of
the lineup at any point and leave CF to Span. Plus Span overachieved
last year compared to his minor league stats, and is also a lefty, so
he could lose AB’s to Young or Cuddyer. Or someone could get traded or
hurt. These things have a way of working themselves out, so I expect
plenty of AB’s for everyone.

–Cory

 

26 Comments

TGIF Guys-
20 team, H2H (we count 2B, BB, SB, TB, SLG, AVG.) and need to upgrade RF (right now it’s Seth Smith–we play OF-specific). Team A offered me Corey Hart for Stephen Drew.
Team B offered my Matt Joyce for Orlando Hudson
I already have Jose Reyes at SS and my MI would be Hudson.
Should I make either of these deals or pass and pick up a Balentien, Ca. Gonzalez, Cuddyer, or Mather and stay with Drew as my MI?
Thanks as always!
Shane

Keeper question here. 12 team mixed league, 28 man rosters w/ $265 cap. We have to submit our keepers (no limit) in a few weeks and I wanted to know if these players are worth keeping or trading for at their current price.
Denard Span $5
Atkins $21 (several projections have him at a 300/20+/100+ season)
Kelly Johnson $10
Alex Gordon $12
Figgins $16
King Felix $17
Combined, my current keepers have above average power, below average speed, and weak pitching (Liriano is my ‘ace’ but I can live with it). What do you think?
Mahalo!

Keeper question. 10 team 5X5. keep 6. keeping Hanley, Teixeira, Grady and Lincecum. need 2 out of the following. Manny, Papi, Mauer, or Papelbon. help!
thanks
-rich

Another league, another trade. 16-team, 29-man roster, 7×7, auction with escalating salaries. Keep as many as you want subject to the draft cap of $260. Cap goes to $300 after the draft.

The general strategy seems to be to reduce salaries as much as possible leading up to the draft. Anticipating a shallow draft (which was correct), I took the opposite strategy of keeping my high-priced players and trading for others to max out my salaries. I just finished that off by trading Pablo Sandoval at $4 for Matt Garza at $15 to supplement a staff of Hamels, Lester, Danks, Lidge. My hitters are mostly set, with Tex, Utley, Sizemore, Markakis, Hart. Now I have $11 to fill 10 spots at the draft (it’s not unusual to have ten $1 players with this deep of a league). Pretty much sitting this draft out, but my team is very solid. What do you think of the trade and the strategy?
Allan in San Antonio

Weiters or Tommy Hanson?14 team h2h, mixed league.

Scoring goes like this: there are 8 hitting/ 8 pitching categories, 5 major categories worth 2 points each to the winner of the category (10 points) and 3 minor categories worth 1 point per category (3 points). Total points up for grab is 13 for hitting and 13 for pitching.

The major HITTING categories are hmr/rbi/runs/steals/ave and the minor categoreis are Walks/double+tripples/strikeouts.

The major PITCHING categories are W/Era/K/S/WHIP and minor categories are Holds/Homeruns against/L.

Our roster has no catcher, but 2 Util spots.

Im not sure who to keep as my minor league keeper, which would represent the last round player drafted in the draft. I already have Kinsler, Reyes, BJ Upton, Bay, Morneau as my regular keepers.
Thanks,
Aaron in Texas

Mahalo, here’s what I’ll say:

Span yes
Atkins no
Johnson yes
Gordon close but no
Figgins close but you need speed so I’ll lean towards yes
Felix very close but no, don’t think you’re getting much of a bargain and might be able to draft better pitcher at same price

Zach

Shane, pass on Hart for Drew. Tough decision but Drew plays at the weaker position, actually had a significantly higher SLG than Hart, and hits for equal power. The fact that you have Reyes makes Hart’s steals less important.
The Joyce for Hudson swap depends on how you’ll configure your roster. With Hudson at MI and Reyes at SS, where would you play Drew? (Did you mean Hudson at 2B?) If there’s an everyday slot for Hudson, do the deal as Orlando has a higher face value than Joyce, whose role in the TB outfield is still a bit cloudy.

Zach

Rich, Manny and Papelbon are the clear picks.

Zach

Shane,

I’ll agree with Zach on Joyce but I’d actually do the Hart for Drew trade. I’m not the hugest Hart fan but right now I think he will bring more to the table then Drew especially since you have #1 SS but right now you don’t have a #1 RF. If this was a vanilla mixed it would be a decision but since you would be upgrading from smith to Hart and still have Hudson this is a no brainer. Zach read this wrong and I scolded him. He gave me two and a half push ups.

-Siano

Rich,

I agree you go Manny and Paps, it’s a little easier to get a catcher in a ten teamer, but definitely try to draft Mauer back.

-Siano

Shane,

I’m doing the other 2.5 push ups. make both trades!!!!!!!!

Allan,

Don’t have an issue at all, very shrewd moves and your right about the amount of $1 players. Now with you basically in a straight draft mode you can focus your energy on getting some killer cheapies. I dig it.

-Siano

Aaron,

go Wieters, always lean towards the bat. Nothing against Hanson I love him but Wieters will play everyday (in catchers terms) when he gets up.

-Siano

Leftover question from a couple days ago, reposted here:

________Cory,
Should we be comparing players against the “best replacement level player” regardless of position?

For example, if Aaron Rowand is the best overall replacement player, of what value is it to know that Joe Mauer is 4.3 SGP’s better than him? (making up a number) Wouldn’t it be more valuable to know that he is 9.1 SGP’s better than Yadier Molina?

Of course, if we only do comparisons by position, it tends to over-emphasize the Kinsler’s and Russell Martin’s of the world…or does it?

How do you mathematically factor in position scarcity? Is it by comparing only against similar positions, only against the best available waiver wire player, or some hybrid of the two?

_____________

Thanks!

Chris

This ques may get answered during today’s show but I’ll ask anyway. In a 12-team AL only keeper what is Alex’s auction value at this point?

Riverdome,

we did address? Tune in later……Siano

Hey guys,

I’m trying to make a decision on my final keeper, and was wondering if I could get some advice. It’s down to a choice between: Rich Harden, Carlos Zambrano, Javier Vazquez and Jon Broxton. All of my other keepers are position players, so whoever I choose would form the base of my pitching staff. There aren’t any round or dollar values attached, it’s just a straight-up keeper that can be kept for up to three years. Avenues for trades have been explored, but have been unsuccessful.

If it was you, which player would you keep, and why?

Chris in Victoria

Chris, how many keepers do you get? Assuming it’s 5 or close to that number, I really don’t see any of these guys as great keepers, but if I had to choose one, it would be Broxton. Harden, Zambrano, and Vazquez all enter this season with legitimate question marks, whether they be health or performance related, so choosing between them would be difficult. Rather, I’d go with Broxton, who has the stuff to be an elite closer. His keeper value is clearly greater than that of the starting pitchers. But if possible, my first choice would be to keep none of these three and take the extra draft pick, once again assuming that the pick comes prior to the regular draft, not after it.

Zach

A different kind of keeper question here. I’m in a 12 team, NL-only league with $280 at auction, 25 players auctioned and another 15 chosen in reserve draft. We can keep as many as twelve players. We can keep players for three years at the price at which they were acquired. However, we can sign players to long-term contracts prior to the third year for five dollars per season, with the escalation taking place immediately. For instance, I have Matt Kemp at $12. If I want to sign him for two extra years beyond this one, he’ll cost me $22 for ’09, ’10 and ’11.
Here are the guys who I have to make decisions on:
Matt Kemp at $12, Hunter Pence at 5, Geovany Soto at 5, Chris B Young at 15, Manny Corpas at 2, Carlos Marmol at 10 and Jonathan Sanchez at 1.
Normally, I’d consider extending a few of these guys, but I lost the championship on the last day last season and had to settle for a sour 2nd place, so I feel like maximizing my dollars to win this year and worry about the future after a YooHoo shower. What do you think? All in for this year or think about the future or a mix thereof?
Thanks, Dave in Delaware

A different kind of keeper question here. I’m in a 12 team, NL-only league with $280 at auction, 25 players auctioned and another 15 chosen in reserve draft. We can keep as many as twelve players. We can keep players for three years at the price at which they were acquired. However, we can sign players to long-term contracts prior to the third year for five dollars per season, with the escalation taking place immediately. For instance, I have Matt Kemp at $12. If I want to sign him for two extra years beyond this one, he’ll cost me $22 for ’09, ’10 and ’11.
Here are the guys who I have to make decisions on:
Matt Kemp at $12, Hunter Pence at 5, Geovany Soto at 5, Chris B Young at 15, Manny Corpas at 2, Carlos Marmol at 10 and Jonathan Sanchez at 1.
Normally, I’d consider extending a few of these guys, but I lost the championship on the last day last season and had to settle for a sour 2nd place, so I feel like maximizing my dollars to win this year and worry about the future after a YooHoo shower. What do you think? All in for this year or think about the future or a mix thereof?
Thanks, Dave in Delaware

Hey guys,

Here’s one you’ve probably got sick of answering over the past few days!

5 Keepers (12 team vanilla), I have Tex, Longoria, Soriano and Markakis. I had A-Rod pencilled in, but can’t risk the 4-month layoff, or the diminished numbers he might put up if he plays on (it’s a competitive league, I need all I can get from Day 1). I have Haren, Phillips, Chipper, Big Erv and Votto to pick from.

So, the question is:

a) Would you drop A-Rod as a Keeper? and

b) Who would you replace him with?

Thanks for all your help guys.

Steve in the UK

1B Questions: What is it fair to expect from Votto this year? How much difference do you predict between him, D.Lee, Atkins or Huff, or the drop down to LaRoche? I am trying to establish at what point it is too much of a reach for Votto given that those are the only other 1B options available in my draft that I trust.

Afternoon fellas,

Watching the WBC this morning keeping track of how people are playing, was pondering the question of do I take what I see with a pinch of salt? I know Perez is Club DTM, even tho it was us aussies who belted him around, and Jeter is hitting .600, but just how much value do you all place in how a player goes so long before the start of regular season?

By the way…we may just cop a pounding by the Cubans, but at least we won one!

Cheers,
Gerard Prosper

Arod is opting for surgery. Does this stabilize his value?
Thanks,
Another Mike

Kevin, I am very bullish on Votto this year: .300+, 25-30 homers, as many runs/RBI’s as the Reds lineup will allow, and 8-10 steals. He might still be a little behind Derrek Lee because of the runs discrepancy, but I think he can outperform him in every other category and so he’s moving up the charts. I worry he may become a little overrated by draft day, but I think he’s the real deal.

Gerard, see my comments on the WBC on this thread: “Fantasy 411 Q&A: March 11, 2009″. Scroll down towards the end to where I was talking about Marmol. In a sentence: pitching in the WBC does not diminish a pitcher’s fantasy value any more than guys who don’t pitch in the event.

–Cory

Mike and Cory,

I am a 3 year fan of the Podcast. Now, with the new format I am tempted not to even bother downloading it. There is no more Mike and Cory banter – you relationship, asides, etc were what seperated you from the pack. They have turned the 411 into a generic baseball podcast.

I assume that you are trying to carry that over onto this blog, but for fans like me that need some 411 to go – gym, car, etc., I may not last the season with you guys.

I need the podcast back to the way it was!!!!!!

Caps

PS – had no idea where else to post this – but have spent so much time listening I was compelled to write this…

Take care

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