Fantasy 411 Q&A: March 10, 2009 (Over and Underrated for 09′)

Editors Note: The preview show actually won’t show up until Wednesday now since it takes about 24 hours for iTunes to process a submission. Today’s show was just shot. A-Rod, Big Erv and more were discussed. There is a bonus Chase Utley interview at the end. Stay for the credits.

 

 The 30 minute season preview show should be in iTunes at some point today so keep checking. For those of you who missed it we are now back in the iTunes store. You can get audio or video but it looks like you need to subscribe (free) if you are only getting one format.

Here they are the studs and busts of 09′ as selected by me and Cory. For the analysis of our picks check iTunes for the new show.

Overrated (Siano’s Picks)
C Mike Napoli
1B Ryan Garko
2B Howie Kendrick
3B Hank Blalock
SS Mike Aviles
OF Vladimir Guerrero
vlad1.jpg
OF Nelson Cruz
OF Denard Span  
SP Cliff Lee
SP AJ Burnett
RP Kerry Wood

Overrated (Cory’s Picks)
C Ryan Doumit
1B Ryan Howard
2B Alexei Ramirez
3B Kevin Youkilis
SS Michael Young
OF Manny Ramirez
OF Jason Bay
OF Andre Ethier
SP Francisco Liriano
SP A.J. Burnett
RP Bobby Jenks 

Underrated (Siano’s Picks)
C   Jeff Clement
1B Kendry Morales
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
3B Josh Fields
SS Elvis Andrus
OF Coco Crisp
OF Carlos Gomez
clement_1.jpg 
OF Shin-Soo Choo
SP Justin Verlander
SP John Smoltz
RP Joel Zumaya 

Underrated (Cory’s Picks)
C   Kelly Shoppach
1B Adam LaRoche
2B Kelly Johnson
3B Adrian Beltre
SS Derek Jeter
OF Chris Young
OF Jayson Werth
OF Ryan Spilborghs
SP Jered Weaver
SP Wandy Rodriguez
RP Joel Hanrahan  

43 Comments

Whats up guys, love the show, hate to see it cut to 15min but I somehow will live. Cory I am curious about your overrated pick of Alexei Ramirez, and Mike I am surprised to see Nelson Cruz on there. I was planning to target Ramirez in my upcoming draft and possibly picking up Cruz as a late 4th OF. Should I be looking elsewhere?

Is the 15 minute show going to continue through the year, or is this an off-season thing only?

Garko as overrated? Makes sense, but does ANYONE actually expect anything out of him this season? Aren’t most people figuring he’ll get crunched out of playing time by V-Mart, Hafner, and Shoppach? I’d be shocked if he got 350 at-bats unless someone gets hurt or traded. He’s going undrafted in most of my mocks anyway.

I have to totally agree about Nelson Cruz. His 115 stellar big league at-bats last season won’t make me forget about the 430 lousy ones in the two seasons before that (.230ish average, yikes). At age 28, dude just seems like a quad-A player to me.

-Dan in LA

I need your blessing (or maybe I am just bragging a little) on a couple trades that I completed in the past 12 hours…

NL-Only 5×5 Keeper Auction, I picked up Lincecum at $15 for McLouth $10 and Delgado $6.

Mixed 6×6 (OPS/L) Keeper – no values assigned to keepers – I traded D-Lee and Victorino for Chipper and McLouth. I have Adrian Gonzalez in this league and we do not play a CI.

Let me know what you think

–Nate in Springfield

Keeper question. 12 team H2H mixed, 6 x 6, OPS the additional offensive category. We get three keepers. I am debating between Tex, BJ Upton, Manny, and Carl Crawford. I am leaning towards Tex, Upton, and Crawford to go into the draft not having to worry too much about steals. Would you rather keep Manny over one of those three because of the OPS? Thanks guys.

Thank goodness I didn’t opt to keep Mauer in the Mafia league, and went with Martin instead! Too afraid of that injury history, and it seems to be rearing its ugly head early. Set up to go with a closer on the 3rd pick of the draft (6th round). As always, thanks for your input and assistance.
Allan in San Antonio

Working backwards, I’d actually go Manny over Crawford. I like Crawford to have a bounce back year, but as you said, the OPS heavily favors Manny and steals are the only category where Crawford wins out. You’ve got Upton already so it’s not like you’re in dire need for speed. Also, SBs are slightly devalued in H2H leagues, especially ones with extra categories.
Nate, no problem with those two trades. McLouth at $10 is good value but Lincecum at $15 is a steal. The other trade is pretty balanced, and Chipper’s health issues are somewhat frightening, but his OPS was considerably better than Lee’s. Victorino and McLouth are very comparable in value, so if Lee is expendable, go for it.
weschicago, shows during the season will still be in the 15-20 minute range, but they’ll be five days a week.

Zach

Hey Zach, what do you think about Reyes value if he stays in the 3 hole during the season? still a top 5 pick?
-Chris in Dallas

Dan, I won’t be touching Garko in any of my drafts. That said, he really shouldn’t be undrafted. He’s proven that he can perform at a high level when given the opportunity, and I’m still not convinced that Hafner will put together a healthy season from start to finish. Garko’s not a terrible last round flier.

myroto, I’ll let Cory address your question.

Zach

Chris, I don’t think Reyes’ value changes much. It’s not like he’s going to all of a sudden stop running. I’m also not buying the idea that he’ll move out of the leadoff spot. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Zach

Morning boys,….i am drafting in my 16 team keeper league (no price tags) …we keep 8. and this is the first round after keepers ….who would you take.

Bobby Abreu, Joakim Soria, Rafael Furcal, Roy Oswalt, or someone else.

current roster is:
McCann
Berkman
Granderson
Markakis
Gordon
Alexei Ramirez
J. Vazquez
Liriano

what do you think? You think i should have 3 pitchers in the first 9 rounds? should i draft my third OF already, or wait?

Also, where would you draft a guys like Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth?

THanks guys,
Rokhed Brett

Siano, I know you like to take a #1 OF in the first two picks, but why why why when you can tackle position scarcity in the middle infield or 3B first? Is the dropoff in OF talent really as significant as that in the M.I., or do the OF’s just put up MUCH better numbers?
-Another Mike

my roto, wes and dan.

we go five days a week starting 4/6 but yes 15 minute shows.

dan I had to pick soembody and Garko was my pick, I admit it’s kinda week but he did have 91 rbi’s.

what Dan said about Cruz is exactly my thoughts.

-Siano

Nate,

love the first one , really don’t like the second, you traded the two best players in the deal.

-Siano

Steve Kerr,

Yes I would rather have Manny, he’s just a better player.
Great three keepers.
-Siano

Allan,

Yeah good job outta you. Mauer is definitely a concern but until we know more he is the #4 catcher behind McCann/Martin/Soto.

-Siano

Rokhead,

being that the 411 philiosophy is to wait on pitching I think it’s safe to say having 3 pitchers in the first 9 rounds is not advised unless two of them are closers.

As far as who to pick man this is tough. Abreu as a 3rd OF wow! Furcal and Ramirez MI wow! The third wow would be reserved for Soria if you had another closer. If papelbon, Nathan, rivera, Lidge and K-Rod are gone you really have to consider Soria here. Is he the best of the three no, but he seems to fit your biggest need after 8.

-Siano

Another Mike,

fair question but we’ll have to agree to disagree. You need 5 OF’s you only need one 3B or 2B. Also how do you know I am not taking a 2B or 3B in the first round and then getting my #1 OF in the 2nd or vice versa?

How about these first four picks?
Kinsler
BJ Upton
Aramis Ramirez
Quentin
would you say I’m week at 2B and 3B? Did I get my OFs?
-Siano

Cory,
I have been working with the excel projections and the ratio stats are killing me. could you post a quick walk through for how you calculate the replacement value in these categories.?
For example, my value per point in standings was for BA (0.0026). Have i screwed up my math (10teams .293-.267), or have i missed a step? I am getting a value like 15 for, say, puljos, but in the other categories i get a max of 2. Thanks for your help.

Mathematically inept chris

Hey Guys,

Can you give me your top 5 in a keeper league?

Thanks-Bill in Chicago

Bill,

I’m not sure how to answer your question. For 2009? For 2012? It’s to broad a question to give you any other answer then the top 5 players in the league right now.

-Siano

Here’s mine: Hanley, Pujols, Wright, Reyes, Braun.

Zach

Yeah, mine are for this season…just to clarify.

Zach

If that’s the case I’ll go Hanley, Pujols, Wright, Braun, Sizemore. Leaving out A-Rod b/c of injury and I know I left out Reyes, he is #6…..Siano

Will the over/under rated show be available as an audio podcast from the mlb link?

Kevin,

Unfortunately we will not be able to on that one. I apologize.

-Siano

Guys, longtime and loyal podcaster. Sad your show will only be 15 minutes this season. I desperately need help with my first keeper league. 10 team, roto, $275 budget, 25 man roster. Who would you keep at these current year prices?
Pedroia ($7)
Ad. Gonzalez ($19)
K-Rod ($23)
Webb ($33)
Nady ($10)

Also have the following who I think are too expensive/not worthy to keep: Utley ($46); Vlad ($31); or J.Upton ($6).

Guys,

Sorry for not being clear in my previous question…I was running late for a meeting…anyway, yeah, I am drafting in the first year of a Keeper league and have the 4th overall pick. Just wondering who you thought I should take there. Thanks! Bill in Chicago

Guys, I have offered this trade to another owner in a 12-team mixed vanilla $260 keeper league. Can keep up to 5 players for 3 yrs. I would trade Lidge ($4, 2yrs), Ibanez ($5, 2yrs) & Uggla ($12, 2yrs) and get Lincecum ($17, 2yrs). My other keepers would be Youkilis ($3, 2yrs), Ellsbury ($9, 2yrs), Markakis ($13, 1 yr) & Rollins ($26, 1yr). He is currently thinking about it. What do you think? He also countered with Lidge & Markakis for Lincecum but I think that is too much.

Hey guys, I’m trying to get a read on Matt Wieters. Is this guy for real or over-hyped this season?

Thanks!

Curtis

Cory –

The MLB projections have Russell Branyan at 31 HR’s and your projections have him at 17 HR’s. Is this strictly a PT issue or a difference of opinion?

Mike –

How much would you go in your AL Only on Branyan?
How did you pass on Arod at $22 in LABR. Where’s the ManCrush???

Thanks
TJ

brian, here’s my take:

Pedroia yes
Ad Gonzalez yes (I just love the guy)
K-Rod reasonable price so I understand if you want to keep him but ill lean towards no

Everyone else NO

Zach

doobie, definitely no on the counterproposal and I don’t even think I’d do that first one. Yes, 17 bucks is good value for Lincecum but all the guys you’re giving up (especially Lidge) also have nice value. I just think that Lidge at 4 makes about an equal impact to Lincecum at 17 and you’re losing two additional players, one of whom is a power 2B at a thin position.

Curtis, I think Wieters deserves top 10 consideration at his position but he’ll be so overvalued that I’d stay away. Wieters may turn out to be an elite catcher by year’s end, but I’m not willing to spend a single digit round pick to find out.

Zach

TJ,

I’m ignoring Branyan unless its for a buck or two. I don’t want the average albatross nor do i think he will benefit from LaHair at 1B and Junior at DH.

-Siano

Bill,

I would pray for hanley, pujols or Wright to drop but if not I would personaly go Sizemore over Reyes or Cabrera. Just my preference those guys aren’t bad picks there obviously. Braun is no higher then a 4 and can be argued at 4.

-Siano

Sweet, a lot of the players I’ve been targeting in the late rounds of my mock drafts are represented in your underrated lists. Now, I’ll just have to hope my fellow drafters don’t read this column, so those guys still fall to the late rounds…

I am surprised to see Andre Ethier in Cory’s overrated column, and I’m anxious to hear the logic behind that choice. I’ve generally been able to grab him in the 10th-12th round of 12-team mixed drafts, which I think is great value. With a full season batting in front of Manny and with a firm hold on the CF position, I don’t think his value will be substantially less than players like Curtis Granderson, Nick Markakis and Alex Rios. Though he won’t quite match the speed of those guys, he’ll still chip in a handful of steals, and the other numbers should be very close, with a cost that’s usually a good 6-7 rounds later than those players.

Chris

Your killing me with these 15 minute shows. We need more of Siano and Schwartz, not less.
Who do we need to contact to encourage an increase in programming? You guys are the best!

Mathematically inept chris – I had the same issue when I was following Cory’s steps to calculating Standard Gain Points (SGP). What I did was took the projected AB’s for the individual player divided by the total expected AB’s for the team times the SGP to arrive at the value for AVG.

So example if Pujols I have projected at 600 AB’s and I expect my team to have 7,200 AB – then I take 600/7200 * 15 (the score you got by dividing Pujols AVG over Repl AVG) = roughly 1.25.

This logically makes sense to me because it means Pujols should gain me 1.25 standing points alone because of his batting average.

I hope that helps. I did the same thing for WHIP & ERA by using player’s IP divided by expected IP.

Hey folks, a few comments on this thread since I haven’t been around in a few days…

Fisher, thanks for the help in explaining the math. I’m going to post my draft spreadsheet in a few more days, so people can just plug in their stats to generate the outputs.

Chris, I’m warming up on Ethier but I think there’s a big difference between 7-8 steals and 15-16 steals, plus I’m not convinced Ethier is going to hit more than 20 or so homers. With Manny around he may get dropped down to 6th, so he should get solid RBI’s behind Manny, Loney and Kemp, but will he score much with Blake and O-Dawg behind him? Add it up and I think Ethier is a nice player, but not a guy I would target, and I still think 10-11th round is too early for him.

TJ, the projections in my spreadsheet are compiled from various objective projection systems. Remeber that’s the key word: “objective”. They’re simply mathematical outputs, and these systems combine to project Branyan for 17 homers. Naturally he will hit more if he plays more, so you have to make adjustments for playing time based on your own expectations. To answer your question more directly, there is no opinion involved at all in that projection, definitely not mine!

–Cory

Curtis, read my comments on Wieters on the March 11 thread, “Fantasy 411 Q&A: March 11, 2009″.

Bill, my top five in a keeper league is the same as in a non-keeper league: Hanley, Reyes, Wright, Pujols, Sizemore. Reason? I want to win right now regardless of format so I always take the guys who I think will give me the best chance of doing so.

Rokhead, I would put them in this order: Furcal, Abreu, Soria, Oswalt. With Vazquez and Liriano you can afford to wait another round or two for a 3rd SP; when I do NFBC I try to get 5 pitchers (3 SP and 2 CL) in my first 12 picks, but that’s in a 15-team weekly league with deep benches. In this format you can wait a little longer.

I would probably take Werth before Oswalt too, but you can wait on Burrell.

–Cory

Myroto, I think Alexei Ramirez is being overrated for a few reasons:

* AVG not supported by his awful plate discipline;
* Lower AVG and non-existent walks = relatively lower runs totals;
* Aging ChiSox lineup subject to group collapse, dragging down his overall numbers;
* Got off to a very slow start last year and now has to switch to a tougher defensive position for a termperamental manager.

Add that all up and there’s WAY too much risk for me to take him in the 4th/5th round.

–Cory

The podcast is still not showing up in iTunes and it’s Friday! What gives? Why can’t you just post it off of mlb.com so that it’s really posted for people to enjoy!

Thanks.

– jason

I’m sorry, but as a dire hard Red Sox fan, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkillis are not overrated.

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