Fantasy 411 Q&A: Mar. 17, 2009

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FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

Hey Guys,


What do you guys think is the ceiling on BJ Upton and Carlos Quentin? Will BJ return to 20-30 and will Carlos hit another 35?

Thanks
Tim

Tim,

As long as BJ’s shoulder is fine I do think he will return to 20-30.
So far so good and the Rays being cautious with him in the early going
is actually a good sign. He may start off a little slow with the pop
but once the weather gets warm or the Rays are home for a nice week or
so of games I think you will see BJ come around with the long ball.
Quentin the answer is yes as well. His injury was a freak accident and
to me him hitting 35 is almost a given. I would love to have those two
as my #1 and #2 OF.

-Siano

_________________________________________________________________________________

Happy St Pat’s. I got some spring training in this weekend and took care of all my St Pats responsibilities while in Florida so tonight will be very low key in front of the TV.

We should have some big news soon regarding the show and wanted to remind everyone that as of now we will go five days a week starting Monday April 6th the show will be podcast in its entirety and you will also be able to find the on demand links on our landing page and shorter more specific clips from the show on MLB.com. We hope to have a brand new 411 landing page in the coming weeks.

Some quick observations from the two games I saw.

Sunday 3/15 Cardinals @ Phillies: Great to see Utley back in action. He looked a little slow but that is to be expected. I doubt he stays near the end of the first round if he keeps playing every day I can see him getting back in the top 10 by the end of the month should there be no setbacks. Jayson Werth looked great granted it was against lesser pitching but man he crushed the ball. It was the biggest crowd in the history of Bright House Field and as much as I love the Yankees and Cardinals spring training homes the Phillies do it better than anyone. This was also the game where a swarm of bees took over the 3rd base line, pretty wild stuff.


st09.jpg  

Monday 3/16 Phillies @ Yanks: Phillies had the B squad out except for Howard and Ibanez. Kendrick started and got roughed up and hurt by some very sloppy defense. Joba started for the Yanks and even though I thought he labored a little he came out looking good and pretty much locked up his role as a starter for 09′. I was bummed that Mariano’s debut is tonight instead of yesterday but knowing that and the Yanks up 11-0 in the 7th made me feel guilt free to cut out and get a late lunch. No pun intended but Ransom is soooo much smaller than A-Rod.

Cory and Corey will be shooting the show any second. Lots of injury updates and news on Pudge………Siano

 

43 Comments

I have been hearing more and more positive reports (Will Carroll) about ARODs return and productivity….to the point of him not being worse than a selection @ #6, etc.

I have #4 pick of 12 Team Mixed, Non-Keeper, Weekly. We use 10 bats each week to accumulate Standard ROTO cats. (filling the 8 defensive positions plus 2 wild cards).

I am targeting Pujols, Reyes, Wright, Hanley @ 4 (who ever falls) but wondering if in any way shape or form having AROD (3B) makes positional sense.

–BDH

“We should have some big news soon regarding the show and wanted to remind everyone that as of now we will go five days a week starting Monday April 6th….”

If that BIG NEWS is that the show will be 1hr long, (2hrs even better) than I am waiting with bells on to hear that news. :)

–BDH

Hey Guys:

I am preparing for my AL Only auction and was wondering if you could give some guidance on what to shoot for in each category. I have only done mixed leagues in the past, so I would imagine that there are different category goals for a 12 team AL Only league. If I wanted to shoot for 3rd place in each of the 10 categories, what should I be shooting for?

-Chris

Hey Guys,

Do you bump Braun down a bit after his recent injury? Also, are you concerned at all about Hanley’s sore shoulder?

Lastly, I beleive Cory said he was going to post a way to calculate $$$ values from projections. Is that correct? If so, do you know the ETA? Thank you all so much for your assistance!!!

Bill in Chicago

Happy St Paddy’s Guys,
What do you guys think is the ceiling on BJ Upton and Carlos Quinten? Will BJ return to 20-30 and will Carlos hit another 35?

Thanks
Tim

Hi guys,

I’ll send you a sandwich if you help me out here.

20 team keeper, H2H, 5×5. Great league. I was runner up last year so I’ll have 19th pick after the keepers are gone. My four locks are Hamilton, Utley, Reyes and A-Ram. The fifth comes down to McLouth, Mags or Beckett.

Do I stack my hitting and keep McLouth or keep the maddeningly inconsistent but high upside Beckett to anchor my staff? Thanks!

BDH, I’d stick w Pujols/Reyes/Wright/Hanley…more certainty…that’s what you want out of your first rounder.

Zach

BDH – You hit the nail on the head!

I’m still in disbelief that someone at MLBAM decided that the best time to “go daily” with a Fantasy Baseball show is April 6–after all the drafts are done. Amazing Ignorance!

I read the blog and appreciate all of the help that we get, but this is not Mike and Cory’s natural element…they are clearly most comfortable in the studio, taking calls, rapidly firing off responses to IM’s, etc.

We’ve all tried the new blog format, and I appreciate Zach’s work and responsiveness, but I can’t believe that most of the 411 listeners dont long for the old days–the days of 5-days-a-week one-hour podcasts!

Guys, screw the video! I download the podcasts for my commute–I can’t very well read a blog or watch you guys in studio that way. Still haven’t seen (heard) the season review show because its not available as an audio download.

This is done out of love. We miss you guys. Wish there was someway to make things right.

Cheers,

Leon

botner, I’d go with McLouth. He’s got power, and his SBs along with those of Reyes should place you at or near the top of the category. McLouth has far more keeper value than Mags, and I just don’t trust Beckett anymore.

Zach

Zach -

Thanks regarding Arod still behind the other 4.
——
Any chance the OverRated/UnderRated list can be updated to include the projected Round where true value lies (ie. Manny Ramirez (if in parenthesis after his name you listed Rd 3 or #30 overall (then presuming 12 Team Mixed) that would equal his truer value – if taken sooner he would be OverRated, however, after that point he would be UnderRated)? Thats just an idea. It would help us plan when the TrueRating comes into place vs. PRESUMED OverRated or UnderRated value, etc.

–BDH

Thanks guys.

Given my keepers above (Hamilton, Reyes, Utley, A-Ram, McLouth)…for my first pick (technically pick 119), I’m thinking either Votto, Chris Davis or Wieters. Probably a little early to gamble on Wieters normally, but I have the strongest set of keepers in a very deep league, so it affords me the opportunity to gamble. What do you think? I’m guessing Wieters would be gone by my second pick. But Votto or Davis aren’t half bad either.

I was offered a trade I get manny and okajima and give up haren. Deal or no deal?

Tim,

As long as BJ’s shoulder is fine I do think he will return to 20-30. So far so good and the Rays being cautious with him in the early going is actually a good sign. He may start off a little slow with the pop but once the weather gets warm or the Rays are home for a nice week or so of games I think you will see BJ come around with the long ball. Quentin the answer is yes as well. His injury was a freak accident and to me him hitting 35 is almost a given. I would love to have those two as my #1 and #2 OF.

-Siano

hey guys,

is David Price going to make the opening day roster? He’s having a good spring, but obviously it seems that the Rays are worried about keeping him from being a super-two…And then there’s the fact that the Rays are likely to be in a tight playoff race…

I suppose there’s also the fact that he only threw 120 innings last year…the Rays may want to baby him in Durham for the first month anyway. Right now he’s going 10th-13th round…is that about right? what do you guys think?

Chris,

The easy answer is use your 3rd place finishes from last year but since you don’t have that I will give you the stats from both my AL only leagues in 2008.

avg.274
hr 199
rbi 832
runs 878
sb 114
wins 90
saves 58
era 3.94
whip 1.307
k 1019

avg.274
hr 185
rbi 848
runs 907
sb 112
wins 85
saves 62
era 3.89
whip 1.29
k 1040

some differences but overall very close so splitting the difference might not be a bad idea.

-Siano

bowl legged billy,

I’d be awfully surprised if Price made opening day roster for reasons like you mentioned and it worked with Longoria last year as well. Your right about where he is going but that strategy only seems to work if you draft SP early. I’m avoiding him this year only because I’m not inclined to take him as my #1 or #2 in a non keeper. He’ll have value this year and is on a road to stardom but he doesn’t fit my strategy in a mixed non keeper. I can always trade for him later.

-Siano

killahz3,

it’s funny how over valued pitching is. Manny goes before Haren in 9.5 out of 10 drafts yet you get the extra guy. sold.

-Siano

Botner,

close between McClouth and Mags but I’d go Nate, more cats to help you in. Cajun turkey with cheddar and hot peppers please.

-Siano

Hey guys,

I have a question that I am kind of freaking out about. My keepers are due at 12 PST time today. We keep 2 with round values. This is a 10-team 8×8 with extra cats being:

Hitting:
2B, BB, K

Pitching:
CG, SHO, BB

I am trying to decide on my 2nd keeper to go along with BJ Upton in the 10th round. I have:

Utley – 1st Round
Manny – 4th Round

My original thought process was:
1) I want to have a 1st round pick this year as David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, and Jimmy Rollins may be available. Wright may drop off the list. But, if that happens that owner loses Lincecum in the 8th round. There should be a big selection of hitters comparable to Utley.

2) Manny is a bigger value in the 4th round than Utley in the 1st. Plus, Manny could be playing for another contract like last year.
3) Based on Yahoo’s rankings and how players load in the draft app, I figure Utley will show up in the 2nd round, as he is currently ranked 21 overall. Plus, that is where he’s shown up in the mock drafts I’ve done. Worst case scenario, I would have a chance to get Utley back and have a shot at Wright, Cabrera or Sizemore.

However with the news breaking about Manny, and after listening to Manny being touted by you guys as overrated, who should I keep? Which one is a better value, Manny in the 4th or Utley in the 1st?
I’m missing the daily podcast. Is that coming back anytime soon? Love the show guys.

Thanks,
Ben in the 9-0-9

Mike – thank you for the 3rd place finish stats in your two AL Only leagues last year…this will definitely help in my prep!

-Chris

Ben, considering that all those studs will likely be available in the draft, I’d go Manny. Under different circumstances, I might lean towards Utley, but just having a good chance to get a Wright, Rollins, MCab, or Sizemore, letting Utley go is worth it.

Zach

ben in the 909

that would freak me out too but I think I am going to agree with Zach. daily podcast returns 4/6 which BDH and Leon so eloquently raked over the coals ablut ;-)…….Siano

btw

I go wright/sizemore/rollins/mcab. That would you 3 OFs if u miss Wright but wow they are good ones.

no sweat Chris…..Siano

Great! Thanks guys. That helps me out alot. I’m stoked for the show to come back daily!
Ben

Guys-

We just had our 5×5 16 team draft [3 keepers] 22 rounds.
10 starter position players [c,1b,2b,ss,3b,4 of,u] and 8 p must play per day.

Studs are gone by round 4-5- ADP=100.

It becomes a crap shoot after round 12-13- ADP=200.

My team is:
c- Soto
1b-Morneau
2b-Roberts
ss-Drew
3b-Beltre
3 of- Braun; Hamilton; Taveras
sp- Matsuzaka;Gallardo;J.Johnson; Snell; Lohse
rp- Broxton; Lindstrom

Late round players are necessary to spell starters.Could you comment on filling out rosters with the players at end specifically my draftees. Do you think they will get reasonable playing time? Who do you think won’t and should I ditch?

Stewart- 3b +-of= round 14
Dickerson-of =round 16
Barmes- 2b/ss =round 17
Hanson- sp =round 18
K. Morales- 1b/of =round 20 [player =320]
Scott-of/dh =round 21
Hughes -sp =round 22

Thanks, Alex

After years of listening to you guys, I agree 100% with your saying “hitters hit” . In rounds 1-10 I might take 1 pitcher because of the amount of depth at the position. At or around the 10th I will start a run of pitcher and normally end up with a staff that includes Bedard, Nalasco, Verlander, Price, Harang, and Scherzer. I was curious what your thoughts on guys like Paul Maholm and Kershaw are for this season and when do you think Tommy Hansen gets the call to the bigs?
Also, Andy LaRoche has been playing well this spring. What are you predictions for this young 3rd base stud and what kind of impact do you think he’ll have?

Thanks,
Charles, Va

I was curious what you think about the value of A-Rod now that the word from him and the Yanks is that he feels good and should be fine when he returns. I’m in a 12 mixed keeper league and our draft was Sunday. My keepers were A-Rod, Utley, Markakis, and Kemp. During the draft I was offered Mark Teixeira straight up for him. I drafted Chone Figgins in the 11th and Chris Davis in the 9th rd to cover 3rd base until A-Rod returns or in case I do trade him. What are your thoughts or suggestions?

Thanks,
Charles, Va

Charles I’ll answer both here.
Like the idea of that staff even though getting price as your “#4″ might be hard. Either way it’s a good start. Don’t love Maholm’s K’s but he is definitely serviceable, good thing we don’t chase wins. Kershaw is a nice guy to target in the dn game in a non keeper, love the K’s but he needs to show better control etc..
As far as A-Rod goes I like your back up plans and your other keepers. Getting Tex for him straight up is intriguing because he is at worst a middle 2nd rounder and could have a monster year. If Davis has a big year you won’t miss A-Rod and even though Alex is progressing fine they won’t rush him back so mid may still looks like the earliest. A-Rod could be 100 million percent when he returns but he can’t make up for those 6 weeks missed that is what you have to ask yourself. Is Tex for 24 weeks better then A-Rod for 18 and if I have Chris Davis is the downgrade off set by the addition of Tex?
-Siano

Hey guys,
I drafted last Sunday and made a few transactions since then.
This is the team I ended up with:
C-B. Molina
1B-Kotchman
2B-Kinsler
3B-Longoria
SS-Hardy
OF-Braun
OF-Rios
OF-Hart
DH-Giambi
UT-Theriot
B-Wieters
B-Cruz
B-Kouzmanoff
SP-Oswalt
Liriano
Lester
Nolasco
Garza
W. Rodriguez
Floyd
RP-Marmol
Devine
Francisco
How do you guys think I did?
The Manoman
http://manoman.mlblogs.com
P.S. Thanks for the trade help before

BDH, here are the current ADPs according to mockdraftcentral.com:

C Mike Napoli (157)
1B Ryan Garko (312)
2B Howie Kendrick (126)
3B Hank Blalock (179)
SS Mike Aviles (160)
OF Vladimir Guerrero (42)
OF Nelson Cruz (128)
OF Denard Span (209)
SP Cliff Lee (70)
SP AJ Burnett (98)
RP Kerry Wood (148)

C Ryan Doumit (119)
1B Ryan Howard (11)
2B Alexei Ramirez (48)
3B Kevin Youkilis (37)
SS Michael Young (79)
OF Manny Ramirez (19)
OF Jason Bay (33)
OF Andre Ethier (112)
SP Francisco Liriano (68)
SP A.J. Burnett (98)
RP Bobby Jenks (97)

C Jeff Clement (227)
1B Kendry Morales (308)
2B Asdrubal Cabrera (351)
3B Josh Fields (362)
SS Elvis Andrus (279)
OF Coco Crisp (240)
OF Carlos Gomez (266)
OF Shin-Soo Choo (270)
SP Justin Verlander (125)
SP John Smoltz (252)
RP Joel Zumaya (334)

C Kelly Shoppach (251)
1B Adam LaRoche (256)
2B Kelly Johnson (201)
3B Adrian Beltre (184)
SS Derek Jeter (100)
OF Chris Young (105)
OF Jayson Werth (139)
OF Ryan Spilborghs (290)
SP Jered Weaver (220)
SP Wandy Rodriguez (231)
RP Joel Hanrahan (193)

Zach

One more question guys,
Would you trade Gavin Floyd or Wandy Rodriguez for Kevin Slowey?
Thanks,
The Manoman

Zach -

Once again, thanks, but regarding ADP, thats just it, Cory and Mike have Manny as OverRated, and I suspect its because his ADP is #19. So I understand that, I quess I was seeking where would the REAL VALUE vs. ADP be for Manny, etc. If its #30 (as an example), and I see him on the board for any pick past #19 and getting closer to 30, then is is starting to be UnderRated for that given draft. So its not so much ADP I am seeking, its proper Value # to find the true sweet spot for any of these OR or UR players listed.

Make sense?

– BDH

Mike or Zach,
What do you guys see in store for Yovani Gallardo this season. He was looking like the steal of my draft last year when he went down covering 1st and my team dropped to the ground with him. Could he log 200 IP? Would 10 wins, 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 1K/IP reasonable? Thanks as always.

Chris in Columbus

BDH,

I think you have to look at it a few ways. First of all that was Cory’s personal opinion that Manny is OR for 09′ so since I disagree with him I’m fine with Manny going where his ADP etc.. dictates. The reason we want people to watch the show is becuase we explain why these guys are where we have them. Note to some people who may not realize but you dont have to have an ipod to watch something that is free on itunes.

Cory may chime in but I myself do not have a formula for a value number since it depends on your draft position, strategy (pitchers early or late?) and position scarcity whether to “reach” on a guy or not.

-Siano

Chris,
I don’t see why not on Gallardo and he can prob come cheap since he didn’t play but a few dozen innings. I wouldn’t be shocked to see some rust but that isn’t the worst thing in the world as long as he is healthy.
-Siano

Mike S. -

Thanks, yeah, I enjoyed watching your podcast show that focused on OR and UR. Obviously, who you spoke about and how you came up with the reasoning, couldnt cover everyone that made the list. Understood that it may be hard to put a # on some one (but we all do that with Fantasy stuff, hahaha) and yes its subjective, but thought I would ask to simply help me formulate a winning strategy for these types of guys.

You all rock. Flags Fly Forever! I want another one in ’09!

–BDH

Gentlemen,
I picked up Joel Zumaya in all of my leagues (3, 2 keepers) because I am lacking in saves and I’m trying to get a head of the curve on the Tigers closing sito.

When do you think he’ll get the closing job and do you think he’ll hold on to it?

Also, how do you think Mariano Rivera will do this season and if he gets injured who will get the job?

Thanks,
Charles, Va

Big keeper question…

14-team vanilla, keep 4 by value – I’m drafting out of the “12″ spot. I was offered a swap of first round picks – to the first overall that would net me Reyes – along with the first pick of the third round in exchange for my picks near the end of those rounds and the rights to keep Dustin Pedroia in the 13th.

My other keeps are B.J. Upton (9), Braun (11), and Bruce (19). I have a choice between Big Erv (22), Sandoval (22), or Soria (11 – I have 2 picks in this round) as a fourth keep if I pull the trigger.

Based on what’s leftover, the 12th overall pick is likely going to net me something along the lines of Matt Holliday or Carlos Lee, given the grand canyon in early-round value that is left by this format. In the end, I’d be giving Pedroia (and his keeper value) along with, say, Holliday and Atkins for one of the other keeper options, Reyes, and someone more along the lines of Chipper.

I apologize for the long-windedness, but any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

I’m also glad to hear that you’ll be going back to a daily format – the more we can get, the better!

In my 12 team keeper, Ive been working on a deal for manny. Did this get it done? Manny and Russel Martin come to me and I give up Haren and McCann. Thanks.

Offered Berkman and B.J. for Brain Roberts and Mccan. I really need OF help. I have Russel so Mccan is not the issue. I have Cabrara at 1st would use Berkman as my Utility. Problem, only have K. Johnson if I trade Roberts. It`s a 12 team head to head points league.
Thanks , Shane

Shane, no doubt you are losing out on the category value here by giving up 2B/C for 1B/OF, but you are also getting the superior offensive players. Berkman and Upton are both early/mid 2nd-round options in a 12-team league, whereas Roberts and McCann are both probably 4th rounders, and McCann maybe even a little later than that. I don’t think having Kelly Johnson as your 2B is a terrible thing either, he’s still 26 years old and finished strong last year so I think he’s entirely capable of hitting 15-18 homers, stealing in double-digits and posting strong run/RBI totals. As long as you don’t blow up your overall roster structure to do this deal, I think you should do it.

–Cory

Killa, that’s a solid deal for you but entirely dependent upon how much faith you have in Manny. Martin gets a slight edge over McCann in my book due to the superior runs and steals, so if Manny gives you a good season — at least .305, 32, 105, something like that — he’s probably worth more than Haren. If you’re confident he’s good for that, do the deal. Haren is solid, but always go for the bat over the arm.

–Cory

Charles, based on Mariano’s recent track record there’s no reason to think he’s not capable of another elite season. If he were to get hurt, my guess is Marte would get the first crack at closing, but Bruney might have the best arm and righties always get more chances in situations like these based on the more favorable platoon breakdowns (2/3rds of all at-bats are by righties).

As far as Zumaya, he certainly has the talent to win the closer job, but he has to stay healthy and take it away from Lyon. Jim Leyland is not the type to pull the trigger too quickly on his closer — think of how long he stuck with awful Todd Jones when Zumaya WAS healthy — so I think Zumaya is more of a long-shot than a sure thing. Remember, the road to 5th place is lined with closers of the future!

–Cory

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