Fantasy 411 Q&A: March 18, 2009 (Cory Mock Draft Results)

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FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY


I had my main draft last week and my big mistake was to forget that K-Rod and Lidge were still on
the board when I took my first RP. I saw Valverde vs Fuentes and went
with Fuentes. I backed him up later on with Capps and Hanrahan, so I am
happy enough. But what are the chances that Fuentes might perform well
enough to not make me regret that slip up all season long?

Kevin in England

Kevin, I am very bullish on Fuentes this year. Even though he’s
moving to the tougher league, trading Coors for Angels Stadium is a big
plus, and I think his changeup is among the best in the game and gives
him a great weapon against hitters who haven’t seen him that much. I
don’t think he’s among the elite, but I think he could be the 7th or
8th best closer this year and I’m hoping to get him as my #2 in NFBC. I would NOT take Fuentes over K-Rod, but I would very much consider him over Lidge and/or Valverde.

-Cory

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Hey folks, sorry I haven’t been hanging out on the blog much lately. I drew the 13th overall pick in NFBC on Saturday so I’ve been spending all of my free time working on draft prep. So far that has included three mock drafts out of the 13th slot, so I can prepare for the different combinations of players I might be able to get. I’m hoping to get Ian Kinsler or Chase Utley with my first round pick, but I’m not expecting it, so I started out with B.J. Upton and Carlos Beltran in my first draft and here’s how it turned out:

Roster: http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/team.jsp?id=1095677

Projections: http://www2.mockdraftcentral.com/drafts/101764/projections

Enh. A lot of guys I like, but not a good team overall. Taking Carlos Quentin in the fourth round was a major mistake, not because I don’t think he’s worth the pick, but there’s no reason whatsoever to take three outfielders in the first four rounds. That bad start had me playing catchup at every other position for the rest of the draft, and exemplifies the risks of not building category and positional balance with your early core picks.

In my second attempt, I did actually get Utley at 13, but just missed Upton with 18 and took Beltran there again…

Roster: http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/team.jsp?id=1098175

Projections: http://www2.mockdraftcentral.com/drafts/101979/projections

Much better, but a little bit short in the OF and again in the SP this time. Last night I tried a third different approach, going with last year’s first rounder Ryan Howard again, followed by Upton at 18, and also a more balanced approach to OF and SP.

Roster: http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/team.jsp?id=1104489

Projections: http://www2.mockdraftcentral.com/drafts/102527/projections

That’s what I’m talkin’ about! Note that I pulled out a classic old-school 411 tactic in this draft, “stacking” my picks to take the top two catchers (Russell Martin and Brian McCann) at 3/4, and spaced my OF’s and other positions much more carefully to produce a much more balanced roster. I probably should’ve taken my first SP a little bit earlier and passed on my man Edwin Encarnacion, or hoped for him to slip, but at the point I felt he was the best bat available and I wanted to grab him.

Felipe.jpgOne thing you’ll noticed throughout these drafts is that if I don’t get the elite 2B I’m targeting early, I’m shooting for Kelly Johnson again, who I still think has great upside and is very undervalued, and I’m focusing on Mike Fontenot and Felipe Lopez (right) as late-round MI’s. Fontenot is flat-out a better hitter than Aaron Miles, is right in his prime and is having a monster spring, so I think he’s going to win the 2B job in Wrigleyville. Lopez is having a poor spring but I like him batting at or near the top of that Diamondbacks lineup in Chase Field.

The other key so far has been spacing out my OF’s… the elite guys are always worth targeting, but there are a lot of very solid options available in the middle rounds (Jason Werth) and plenty of good hitters who have been slipping into the very late rounds, like Jason Kubel, Chris Dickerson, Colby Rasmus, etc. With that depth, it really reduces the need to rush out and build a stacked OF.

I’m going to try for one more mock draft tonight or tomorrow then focus on getting my paperwork and Excel tools ready for Saturday. I’ll post everything as soon as time allows.

Now, off to answer a few other questions elsewhere on the blog… keep ‘em coming!

Thanks,

Cory

 

27 Comments

HTH, 12-team 5×5 mixed league:

Speaking of OFers, my crew includes Hamilton, Pence, Ellsbury, Bradly, Fancouer, and Travis Snider. What are your brief thoughts on this crew?

Rasmus is available. Might he be a better choice than Fancouer?

Thanks!

Curtis

Curtis I think that’s fine for a 12-team league, because you can use your 5th OF spot much like your 5th starter, and rotate the hot hand. I’d much rather gamble on Rasmus than Francoeur, though… I’d make that swap right now.

–Cory

Alright. Today is roster cut down day in my 9 team NL Only 4×4 auction league (no runs and no ks).

I have 15 guys that I think I should keep. Can’t keep more than 14 so I have to drop one. I’ve been trying to do a two for one trade up but so far unsuccessful.

Which of these guys would you drop and why?

Dan Haren $34
Brandon Philips $20
Chris Young $16
Carlos Delgado $20
Russel Martin $25
Yadier Molina $2
Dan Uggla $20
James Loney $10
Elijah Dukes $10
Andre Ethier $13
Corey Hart $16
Chad Qualls $1
Edinson Volquez $4
Brian Wilson $10
Chris Carpenter $10

Thanks!
Pat (San Diego)

Thanks for the update Cory, I find it really interesting to see the steps you have gone through int rying to build a balanced roster. I had my main draft last week and I am encouraged to see that I have a lot of similar names on my sheet especially guys like Choo, Fontenot, Weaver and Kubel late on in the draft.
My main mistake though was to forget that K-Rod and Lidge were still on the board when I took my first RP. I saw Valverde vs Fuentes and went with Fuentes. I backed him up later on with Capps and Hanrahan, so I am happy enough. But what are the chances that Fuentes might perform well enough to not make me regret that slip up all season long.
On the subject of RP’s and speculating for saves would you go with J.Lewis, R.Soriano, Blafour, Kuo or one of the Florida mess?
cheers.

Had my auction draft for my money league last night. 16-team mixed, 29-man roster, 7×7 (batter K’s, OBP, Holds, QS), can keep as many as you want subject to the cap (with salary escalators). Through trading, I pretty much filled out my roster and maxed out my salaries before the draft, so all I had to do was get 10 $1 players. I’d like your opinion on these players in the $1 spots:

Julio Lugo (handcuffed with Lowrie)
Seth Smith (handcuffed with Spilborghs)
Nate Schierholtz
Eugenio Velez
Nolan Reimold (brought up from minors to fill a spot – I can put him back down)
Ryan Shealy
Armando Galarraga
Phil Coke
Joe Blanton
Franklin Morales

Also happy to say I got Pedro Alvarez in our minors draft.
Thanks as always,
Allan in San Antonio

Pat in SD, I would cut Haren. He’s a terrific pitcher and among the elite in the NL, but this is a 4×4 league so his value is diminished slightly by the lack of K’s. $34 is very pricey even for him in this format.

I’d also punt Carpenter at $10. He may go for more than that in the draft, but given his recent health history — or lack thereof — I’d rather gamble on getting him back for less, or let someone else have him for more. You don’t need to pay $10 to find out if he can actually still pitch effectively or often.

I like everyone else at those prices. Good luck!

–Cory

Kevin, I am very bullish on Fuentes this year. Even though he’s moving to the tougher league, trading Coors for Angels Stadium is a big plus, and I think his changeup is among the best in the game and gives him a great weapon against hitters who haven’t seen him that much. I don’t think he’s among the elite, but I think he could be the 7th or 8th best closer this year and I’m hoping to get him as my #2 in NFBC.

As for the other guys you mentioned I would rank them Lindstrom (FL), Balfour, R.Soriano, Kuo, J.Lewis. Also watch for Leo Nunez in Florida if Lindstrom’s shoulder problem sidelines him for a meaningful length of time.

–Cory

P.S. — I would NOT take Fuentes over K-Rod, but I would very much consider him over Lidge and/or Valverde.

–CS

5th keeper: Jason Bay or Nate McLouth? I have worries about Bay because 1. He won’t be “the man” anymore and RBIs will be down if he’s hitting like 6th in the batting order and 2. Doesn’t seem like he’s stealing many bags anymore. Assuming I’m getting about 90-100 homers and 50-60 steals from the four keepers I have ahead of Bay and McLouth (and only 1 is an outfielder), which one makes more sense to keep?
-Dan in LA

Dan, I think McLouth may have been over his head somewhat last year but in general I prefer to take the 20/20 guy over the 30/100 guy once we get past the elite. Bay is on a better team and has more power, but McLouth will have a better lineup spot (somewhat countering the relative lineup strengths) and offers the steals. It’s a close call, but I’ll take McLouth.

–Cory

Guys-
Love the podcasts
We just had our 5×5 16 team draft [3 keepers] 22 rounds.
10 starter position players [c,1b,2b,ss,3b,4 of,u] and 8 p must play per day. 392 total drafted
My team is:
c- Soto
1b-Morneau
2b-Roberts
ss-Drew
3b-Beltre
3 of- Braun; Hamilton; Taveras
sp- Matsuzaka;Gallardo;J.Johnson; Snell; Lohse
rp- Broxton; Lindstrom

Which of these 16+round players would you keep, to fill out a roster. Who do you think won’t play much and should I ditch?
I.Stewart- 3b +-of= round 14
C.Dickerson-of =round 16
C.Barmes- 2b/ss =round 17
T.Hanson- sp =round 18
K. Morales- 1b/of =round 20 [player =320]
L.Scott-of/dh =round 21
P.Hughes -sp =round 22

Thanks, ACC in VA

Hey guys, thanks for the time. Standard 5×5, 12 team keeper league, only kept 4 (Arod, Teix, Aramis and Victorino). I get my pick now before the live draft starts next week. My best options are Ichiro, Bay, Furcal, Chris Davis, Haren, or Soto. I think Ichiro gives me the best value and Bay gives me the best overall production. I normally like having 2 OF in the first 5 rounds as well. Davis is hard to pass up in a keeper league, but I will have all 3 corner spots filled when Arod returns. What’s the best move? Thanks.

Rob in GR

Rob…Yeah, I’d go with Ichiro. He’ll be taken first in most scratch drafts and there’s very little chance you’ll get him back. I see Bay as a pretty close second, but with Ichiro and Victorino you’re well on your way to locking up the SB category.

Zach

ACC, I like Hanson for the simple reason that he has tons of upside and could very well find himself in the Braves rotation sooner rather than later. All of those other guys are decent players, but none have the ceiling of Hanson.

Zach

Guys, watching Chris Carpenter pitch 4 nice innings for the Cards today on MLB.TV. He got 8 groundballs for 10 outs, which includes a couple of DPs, both turned by converted OF Skip Schumacher at 2B, and one of those fed to him by another converted OF Joe Mather at 3B on a nice diving play to his left.

These 2 guys have made the plays today, but are any of you concerned about the lack of experience on this infield, and the effect it might have on a guy like Carpenter, or any other ground ball pitcher the Cards might run out there? Should we take this into consideration before drafting those magical Dave Duncan/Tony Larussa projects that usually seem to turn out right?

Thanks.

Greg in Cincy

Hey Guys,
How do you see the Reds lineup shaping up going into the season? Will B. Phillips contiue to hit 4th this year? Do you see a 25-25 from him this year? Is he worth taking at the swing pick of the end of 2nd and beginning of 3rd rounds?

Thanks
Tim

PS. Update…at this point, Carpenter has thrown 6 shutout innings, and has gotten 4 more groundouts, 2 to Schumacher, 1 to Mather, and another nice diving play up the middle to Khalil Greene. Not exactly an all-star Baltimore lineup he faced today, but Carpenter looked good…low pitch count, and kept the ball on the ground.

Hey guys,
I had a question on here a few weeks ago about whom to keep, Morneau or Ellsbury, to go along with Braun, Beltran, Teixeira and Longoria. As of now, I have failed in acquiring an upgrade at any position.
My question now is, would I be better off keeping Morneau or trading him for an elite pitcher? There is a team in my league that could benefit from trading one of Santana and Lincecum (my preference).

Thanks for the advice,
Neill

Fantasy 411 Crew,
Would you trade B. Molina & Gavin Floyd for Kevin Slowey& and Soto?
Thanks
The Manoman

Manoman, yes, in about two seconds. One can make a pretty convincing argument that Slowey (3.69 ERA 1.18 WHIP post All-Star break last season) is a more valuable pitcher than Floyd, PLUSyou’re getting the clear upgrade from Molina, who hits in the middle of an anemic lineup, to Soto, an emerging star on a strong team.

Zach

Hey Guys,

I have a decent staff with Haren, Shields, Price as my top three starters but Lincecum has been offered and the other guy is looking for an OF.

I have Bay, Kemp and Braun already but would need something in return as my OF bench stinks.

Think this is enough to get it done? Bay & Cain (or Slowey) for Lincecum & Hawpe? He also has H. Matsui but I would rather have Hawpe.

As I mentioned before, my staff is decent and I could probably sit tight with the guys I have and keep Bay, but Lincecum is tempting as this is a 5 player keeper.

Any thoughts you could provide would be much appreciated. Thanks in advance.

Tim, we’re going to have Reds broadcaster George Grande on tomorrow’s show so you’ll get a lot of info there. As for Phillips, I definitely think he can go 25-25 and taking him in the early to mid 3rd round is certainly reasonable. That said, I’d much rather wait a round and get Brian Roberts. It’s all about value, but I am optimistic about Phillips.

Zach

I have a harder one for you guys now.
Would you trade Braun & Theriot for Granderson, Either, Hanrahan, and Guzman if you had this team?
C- Molina
1B- Kotchman
2b- Kinsler
3b-Longo
SS- Hardy (will switch w/ Ramirez when Alexei gains eligibilty)
OF-Braun
OF- Rios
OF-Hart
UT- A. Ramirez
DH-Giambi (only actual DH’S)
RP-Marmol
RP-Francisco
B-Devine
B- Wieters
B- G.Floyd
B- Cruz
B- Theriot
I play in a 5×5 mixed league.
Thanks.
The Manoman
http://manoman.mlblogs.com

I just made a trade in which I gave up Ludwick, and received Rios. How do you think I did?

Guys do you think hitting in front of Holliday will boost Jack Cust’s value much? I play in a 12 team mixed auction league that subs OBP for AVG and have a chance to keep him for $1. Is it worth a shot?

Really like the approach you are taking, but there’s absolutely no way that big Frank Fransisco lasts till the 18th round in an NFBC draft. That’s ludacris. I’ve got 4 money leagues already and haven’t seen him last past the 16th, and these are 12 team leagues… Anyways, get your boy Ryan Spilbrough’s and also keep a look out for these 3 when you are drafting this season. Seth Smith, Travis Buck, Ryan Sweeney.

Brite, Cust is definitely worth $1 in that format, but more because you use OBP instead of AVG; this gives him a major boost with or without Holliday in the picture.

Babu, like that trade very much… Rios has a good blend of power and speed, and if he puts it together in the same season, could earn 2nd round value. Ludwick has big-time power but has to match what he did last year to approach Rios’ value, and are you willing to gamble he can? You got the guy with more certainty as well as more upside. Well played, sir!

Manoman, absolutely not. You replace Braun with Granderson, and Theriot with Ethier… but where does Ethier play? Who does Hanrahan replace? This trade would be a step down for you across the board… run, run fast in the other direction!

Meazy, I would lovelovelove to deal Bay and Cain (or Slowey) for Lincecum and Hawpe, but I doubt that’s enough to get it done unless the other guy loveloveloves Bay in return. He’s going to want Kemp or Braun… I MIGHT do Kemp/Slowey for Lincecum/Hawpe, but I’d have to really run the numbers on that one. Otherwise, I’d just probably walk away.

Thanks,
Cory

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