Are closers worth it?

One of the more heavily debated tenets of the 411 strategy
is the notion that you should get not just one but TWO top-tier closers in the
first few rounds of a straight draft. This advice has been questioned in a few
channels since we took it to the air on the MLB Network last night, since there is such great volatility among closers year after year, so I
figured, why not test our theory? I’ve always believed in it, always done it,
but what do the numbers say?

 

I decided to look at last year’s top 30 closers (by my own
pre-draft NFBC rankings) and compare their projected stats to their actual
performance. Let’s take a look at them by tiers – the elite (ranked 1-10), the
good ones (11-20) and the gambles (21-30) – and see how their projected
(“Proj.”) stats compared to their actual (“Act.”) 2008 stats, averaging the
stats for the 10 pitchers in each tier.

TOP TIER

RK        PLAYER                       TM

1          Papelbon, Jonathan        BOS

2          Rodriguez, Francisco     LAA

3          Putz, J.J.                      SEA

4          Nathan, Joe                   MIN

5          Wagner, Billy                 NYM

6          Saito, Takashi               LAD

7          Cordero, Francisco         CIN

8          Valverde, Jose               HOU

9          Rivera, Mariano              NYY

10        Street, Huston               OAK

 

TYPE    W      ERA      SV     IP         H       ER     BB     SO    WHIP   SO/9

Proj.     4       2.63      37      71.7      58      21      22      78      1.11      9.8

Act.      4       2.62      34      62.9      50      18      21      70      1.12      10.1

 

Without question, on average these pitchers delivered the
goods as expected: their combined ERA and WHIP nearly exactly matched my
projections, they only fell short by an average of three saves apiece and, even
though they totaled fewer strikeouts, their strikeout rate was greater. On
average, you got what you paid for from the top tier.

MID TIER

RK        PLAYER                       TM

11         Jenks, Bobby                CWS

12         Capps, Matt                  PIT

13         Hoffman, Trevor              SD

14         Soria, Joakim                KC

15         Soriano, Rafael              ATL

16         Corpas, Manny              COL

17         Cordero, Chad               WSH

18         Gregg, Kevin                  FLA

19         Isringhausen, Jason       STL

20         Lidge, Brad                    PHI

 

TYPE    W      ERA      SV     IP         H       ER     BB     SO    WHIP   SO/9

Proj.     3       3.19      33      68.1      60      24      21      62      1.20      8.2

Act.      2       3.20      21      50.7      43      18      18      45      1.20      7.9

 

These guys delivered solid rate stats, but fell further
short of the innings projections and delivered only two-thirds of the expected
saves. You didn’t pay as much for these guys, and you didn’t get ripped off,
but you didn’t make a killing either.

 

LOWER TIER

RK        PLAYER                       TM

21         Gagne, Eric                   MIL

22         Ryan, B.J.                     TOR

23         Borowski, Joe                CLE

24         Sherrill, George              BAL

25         Wilson, Brian                 SF

26         Wilson, C.J.                  TEX

27         Lyon, Brandon               ARI

28         Jones, Todd                   DET

29         Marmol, Carlos              CHC

30         Percival, Troy                 TB

 

TYPE    W      ERA      SV     IP         H       ER     BB     SO    WHIP   SO/9

Proj.     3       3.45      26      61.7      57      24      22      53      1.28      7.7

Act.      3       4.44      22      51.7      47      26      25      48      1.38      8.4

 

These guys more or less delivered on the saves, but the
expectations were lower, and their rate stats were awful. So if the sole
objective here was to get saves, then these guys came through in general, but
at a great cost. The Tier 1 guys clearly provided the best bang for the buck.

 

Ah, but are these numbers deceptive? What about on an
individual basis?

 

Among the Tier 1 guys, six of them essentially delivered as
expected: Papelbon, K-Rod, Nathan, Cordero (although his WHIP was much higher),
Valverde and Rivera. Wagner and Saito delivered outstanding stats before
suffering season-ending injuries, although they combined for 45 saves, so they
weren’t a total loss. Street was a disappointment but still managed 18 saves,
and even though Putz was a huge letdown, even he provided 15 saves.

 

In Tier 2, only Soria and Lidge broke out with
above-expectation seasons. Jenks, Hoffman and Gregg were worthwhile but
unspectactular, and Capps pitched well when healthy. But Soriano, Corpas,
Cordero and Isringhausen did more damage than good, or didn’t do anything at
all.

 

Moving on to Tier 3, several delivered on their expected
allotment of saves: Ryan, Sherrill, Brian Wilson, C.J. Wilson, Lyon and
Percival. However, EVERY one of them did so with an ERA and WHIP higher than
projected, and only Sherrill and Brian Wilson exceeded the expected number of
strikeouts. In other words, these guys made you pay more for the saves than
just a draft pick… they hurt you in other areas. Beyond that, Gagne, Borowski
and Jones were borderline worthless, and while Marmol posted excellent numbers,
he never earned the full-time closer gig.

 

Which brings up a good point… where DID the saves come from
if not from these guys? Here are the 10 closers who earned the most saves last
year but were not in my original top 30 rankings:

 

1. Kerry Wood (34) – he was drafted in every single league
after winning the closer gig over Marmol.

2. Brian Fuentes (30) – drafted in many leagues as a hedge
against Corpas and probably picked up early where not drafted.

3. Salomon Torres (28) – pure waiver-wire material.

4. Jon Rauch (18) – probably drafted in a few leagues and
picked up in a few others due to his solid setup man value.

5. Ryan Franklin (17) – another waiver-wire find.

6. Jonathan Broxton (14) – probably drafted in 100% of
leagues.

7. Mike Gonzalez (14) – probably stashed on many DL’s early
in the season.

8. Jensen Lewis (13) – no one saw this one coming.

9. Fernando Rodney (13) – probably picked up early as a
hedge against Jones’ awfulness.

10. Dan Wheeler (13) – a free agent until Percival got hurt.

 

In other words, had you drafted a mid-tier or lower-third
closer, and needed to find extra saves, and you didn’t get Salomon Torres, you
were stuck with scraps, none of whom got more than 17 saves, and that one (Franklin)
posted weak stats outside the saves.

 

Conclusions?

 

1. The top-tier closers delivered more value than the
mid-tier and bottom-tier closers last year, despite some injuries among them.

2. The waiver wire provided plenty of saves, but very few true
closer solutions.

3. Chasing saves is not fun! Saves are an important category, but they are only one category, and you can do real damage to your ERA and WHIP in their pursuit.

 

I don’t think this PROVES that the 411 strategy is “The Right
Way To Go”, but I think it clearly supports the value of our approach. My first
strategy point I offered on the MLB Network show was to find a strategy that
works for you, and this one works for me just fine.

 

Thanks,

Cory