March 2009

Breaking News out of LA!

The Dodgers have agreed in principal on a two-year, $45 million deal to re-sign free agent left-fielder Manny Ramirez, according to MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and Barry M. Bloom.

 

really not much to discuss Manny is the man and I can still wear my #99 t-shirt….Siano

 

 

Fantasy 411 Q&A: Mar. 4, 2009 (Cory’s Latest, Greatest Projections!!!!!!)

Hey folks, I haven’t been posting much lately so when I speak up I want to make it count! So, here are updated projections for both batters and pitchers, now including eight total sources and as many new categories as I could reasonably include…


2009_projections_030409.xls

This is the last set of projections I’m going to post but I hope to post a spreadsheet soon including the various tools I use to convert projections to rankings.

 

Excerpting from a response posted to a question posted on another recent chat Q&A thread, here’s the step-by-step nutshell for doing so:

 

* Build your stat projections for each player;

* Figure out the top “x” number of guys that will be drafted at each position and overall;
* The best undrafted player then becomes “replacement level”… he’s the best player on the waiver wire;
* Figure out roughly how many of each stat are needed to win each category and how many the last place team will have, using last year’s standings as a guide… i.e., first place has 300 homers and last place has 180;
* Divide the difference between the first-place total and the last-place total by the number of teams in the league… for HR, that’s 300-180 = 120, divided by 12 teams = 10 HR. So 10 HR’s are worth one point in the standings;
* Divide the difference between each player’s total in each stat and the replacement level total… so if Pujols has 35 HR and the replacement-level guy has 15, that’s 20 HR;

340x.jpg

* Divide that by the amount of each stat needed for one point… in the case of HR, it’s 10, and Pujols is projected for 20 HR above replacement… 20/10 = 2.0 points in HR;
* Do that for each stat for each player and then sum them up for total “standings gain points” for each player;
* Rank descending by SGP and voila, you have rankings.

 

(The same basic logic applies in rate stats categories but you have to back out the H/AB, etc., to calculate individual SGP’s. For example, in the AVG category above, .2881 – .2662 = .0219, divided by 12 is .001825. Then figure out the baseline H/AB and sub in each player to see how much above that his AVG would lift you.)

 

This isn’t really as complicated as it sounds; the real trick is correctly anticipating who will be drafted in each league. But then again, as you get further from the top, the difference between drafted and undrafted players is very minimal.

 

Well folks I hope this helps. I’m a little behind schedule in my draft prep but I’ll post what I can when I can, all leading up to the NFBC main event at 1:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 21.

 

Thanks

Cory

 

P.S. – I’m gonna go answer some Q&A questions now, too! :-)

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FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY


Hey guys, awesome work. I have a trade/keeper question for you guys.
I’m in a 12 team H2H league where we keep 5, 1 must be a pitcher (I’ve
written in on this league before). My keepers right now are Berkman,
Bay, Beltran, Ellsbury, and Billingsley. I got offered King Felix and
Pedroia for Berkman. The league has proven very difficult for trading,
so improving keepers is tough. With Berkman still putting up nice
numbers, but I would think on the decline, should I make the trade now
to upgrade my future keeper in Pedroia? I dont like trading for the
future, but making a trade in this league is almost legendary, so the
time to strike would be now. Just want to get your thoughts on the
deal. I probably wouldnt keep Felix, but the deal would just be to get
Pedroia. Thanks for your time and effort!


Wes


Wes,

This all depends on your feelings for Pedroia. His ADP (24)isn’t
much higher then Berkman’s(16) and I definitely don’t think last year
was a fluke for the wee one. Point being this is a fair one for one.
Berkman only qualifying at 1B kinda makes me want to do this because 1B
is clearly deeper then 2B and you have some pop in Beltran, bay etc.

Ask yourself this. What 1B do you get in the draft to replace
Berkman? If that player plus Pedroia is a steal then do it. If it’s not
and comes back to just Berkman vs Pedroia then go with your gut. Would
Lee, Dunn, Votto or Chris Davis and Pedroia for Berkman interest you?

-Siano

Fantasy 411 Q&A: Mar. 3, 2009 (Listener League Update and other news)

Morning,

It is with mixed emotions I announce that there are no openings this year for the Listener Leagues. It’s good news because there was very little turnover. I believe only one spot had to be filled. In one league there were 13 GM’s and one GM left so I left it at 12 to keep it vanilla. It’s bad news because I know a ton of you out there want to compete. We appreciate the love. If you still are looking to get involved in a league with members of the 411 world please head over to fantasypros911.com and fantasybaseballmafia.com. Tony C. is your contact at pros911 and Jason and Tony in Hitchin are the guys taking the flame from GP at mafia.

A quick answer to another question we’ve been getting about updating rankings and dollar values on MLB.com’s Fantasy Preview as moves are made by clubs. The e-mail below should help.

Hi Kevin,

The short answer to your question is yes. The 2009 Fantasy Preview is updated throughout Spring Training. For instance, if/when shortstop Orlando Cabrera officially joins the A’s, his blurb, picture, statistics and auction value will change accordingly. Generally, the bulk of updates being made are major ones, based largely on injuries, player movement or dramatic depth-chart developments in camp. Hope this helps.

Thanks.

- Alex Cushing, MLB.com Fantasy Editorial Producer

 

and finally

 

List of 12 can be found on the bottom right of the page under fantasy resources.

2009 Fantasy Previews Show (sleepers and busts) is due out next week on Itunes (Yes we are close to calling it home again). Keep watching the show for an exact date. It is already taped and is in post production.

 

About to head in and tape the show with Schwartz.

Topics include Cabrera signing with A’s and the health of Nathan/Ryan/Wood/Johan/Wandy/Hamilton and Bradley. 

 


100103cabrera-orlando.jpg-Siano

***NOTE  All unanswered questions from yesterday have been moved to the Comments section under this blog post.

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FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

AL-Only 5×5 12 team Auction $260, OBP instead of Runs

Danks at $10 or Giambi at $14

Thanks
TJ

TJ, By just a few bucks Danks is a better bargain in this format. Giambi, who had a .373 OBP in 2008 with 32 homers, may seem enticing but when I looked up his AL ranking in 2008 in OBP he came in 17th believe it or not. He was 8th in homers in the AL but his average stunk and he didn’t even score 70 runs. If you absolutely feel like you need to protect someone, go Danks. It eases your mind on draft day not having to fight for that extra starter and you definitely got him at below market price even though it’s not a steal.

-Siano

Fantasy 411 Q&A: March 2, 2009

Just when I thought baseball was right around the corner, we get a snowstorm today here in New York.  The winter hasn’t been too rough on us though, so can’t complain. 

While New York City public schools are closed for the day, we here at the Fantasy 411 blog never take any time off.  Our viewers/listeners are too important.  So fire away!

-Zach

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FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

One guy I don’t hear too much about anymore is Adam Jones. Did he
do anything late last season to indicate he is worth a pick in a 12
team mixed league?

Scott

Adam Jones is on some buzz lists this year after a hot summer (.302
with 5 HR and 31 RBI in July/August), but I’m not on board. He was flat
awful the rest of the time (.248 with 4 HR and 26 RBI in the other four
months), and has major strike zone issues (108-23 K-BB ratio). He’s
very young and talented and may have a bright future, but it’s not now.
Don’t buy into the hype just yet.

-Cory

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