Fantasy 411 Q&A: Apr. 2, 2009

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FEATURED QUESTION OF THE DAY

Someone in my league dropped Rick Porcello yesterday and he becomes a FA
tomorrow. Do I use my #3 waiver claim on him? Deep, 20 team keeper
league, but I’d be looking for production this year.

This early and in a keeper league, I go for it on Porcello. You have
plenty of time to work your way back up to top of the waiver order.
Will he produce this year? Tough to say since he is so young, but he has
the shot and that’s all you can ask for right now.

-Siano

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Hey everyone,

We’re almost there!  So close that Pitch or Ditch will make its debut tomorrow.  You’ll find POD exclusively on this blog throughout the season.  Each day’s entry will be up by mid-afternoon, and it will of course focus on the following day’s matchups. 

Don’t forget to catch today’s 411 podcast, as Noah Coslov and Corey Gottlieb will discuss the latest closer news out of Detroit, Colorado, and St. Louis.  Jeffrey “Coco” Ma will also join the show.

Also, a few of you have mentioned that keeping track of all the blog comments is difficult as it’s hard to tell which answers
are associated with which questions.  Unfortunately, the software that runs the site makes this the best we
can do right now.
When one of us answers your questions, we’ll
make sure to address our answer to the appropriate person.  If you have any suggestions, feel free to e-mail fantasy411@mlb.com and I will keep checking
the inbox.

 
Thanks,

Zach


411 Calender of Events for Draft Prep:

Cory’s NFBC Results: Done

Zach’s NL Only Results: Done

Zach’s Listener League (Ron Cey League) Results (12 Team 5×5): Done

411 Listener League Results: Done

Cory’s NL Only Tout Results: Done

Siano’s AL Only Tout Results: Done

Alex’s Mixed Tout Results: Done

Siano’s AL Only Keeper Money League: Coming weekend of April 3rd

52 Comments

Have kind of an excessive amount of outfielders on my bench.

It’s a 6×6 League 12 man league H2H (H, IP are the extra stats)
with a 4th OF spot and a IF spot.

So with the heavy focus on average in mind, I currently have -

Travis Snider
Adam Lind
Daniel Murphy

Right now have Lind in the 4th OF spot and Murphy and Snider on the bench. But my bench is extremely thin because I am having trouble giving up on the Travis Hafner gamble as well.

Should I be dropping one of those guys for a Christian Guzman/Ty Wiggington/Joe Crede/Todd Helton type player?
And if so, who.

Hey guys,

Love your work as always. I really appreciate the way you’ve developed the blog and are willing to answer questions.

One request in re. to pitch or ditch. Please consider giving some explanation as to WHY you would pitch (ditch) a player instead of just listing pitch: a,b,c ditch: x,y,z. I always found that the most useful part of pod, it helps us evaluate pod for our specific situations and become better fantasy players .

Explanations needn’t be long (just a sentence like on the show last season) and aren’t needed for every player, just some.

Thanks again,

Finley

Hey guys,
I received a similar trade offer to the one I got yesterday. This time, it’s Nolasco, Johnson and Soria for Halladay, Kevin Gregg, and Delgado. I wasn’t completely sold on this before, but the upgrade from Gregg to Soria is nice, especially since my number one closer right now is Valverde. Do I have your blessing?

Thanks,
Matthew, CA

Finley,

That’s exactly what we’re planning on doing. For the interesting matchups, we’ll include short comments.

Zach

Great. Thanks again for all you guys do.

ramrod4,

Assuming your IF spot is already filled, I’d hold onto all those OFs, and while Hafner might be waiver material soon, wait and see how he starts the season. Of the three OFs you mentioned, I’d actually start Snider at this point. He has the highest upside and is currently ahead of Lind on Toronto’s depth chart.

Zach

Maybe for responses to specific questions, Zach, Cory, and Siano could put the asker’s name in bold or underlined or both by use of simple html tags.
Or maybe play around with some funky colors?

Anyway, do you guys have any expectations for David Murphy of the Rangers this year? He was having a very good season as a fifth outfielder / Monday-Thursday type until his injury last season, and it looks like he’ll be getting a good share of playing time this year. Is .275 20hr, 85rbi 10sb a possibility in a full season? Thanks.

-Dan in LA

Matthew,

That’s certainly a good offer, and I don’t have a huge problem with it. That said, if this were my team, I’m still passing. Who will you have to replace Delgado? I’m not a big fan of Delgado, but he’ll still give you solid production. Yes, the upgrade from Gregg to Soria is significant, but let’s see how Nolasco does before anointing him the next fantasy ace. Halladay’s already there. Nolasco still has to prove it.

Zach

Quick trade question, thanks in advance:

Standard 12 team 5×5 mixed.
I give Victorino, Cain and Verlander. I get B. Phillips. On the surface it looks ok, but on the wire I can pick up Jimenez, J. Sanchez, Snell or Escobar, so the deal adds probably one or two of those arms. Currently at 2B I have A. Casilla, Hudson or Matsui, though I’ve settled on Casilla for now. i could use a little SB and a little power. I would slide Dukes in off the bench to take Victorino’s spot.

Do you do the deal?

Dan,

Those projections are certainly not out of the question. I think right now Murphy makes for a fine fifth OF in a 12 team mixed with a decent amount of upside. Maybe he graduates to 4th OF status.

Zach

Boys -

Ok, based on the Advice of trying to improve my Staff with 1 more reliable arm (200+ innings, etc) I was thinking about offering Werth for Cain (do you think thats fair? – if you were the Arm would you accept that)…..or Aramis Ramirez for Beckett….He also has Lilly, Myers or Carpenter. (in addition, I feel I can part with Encarncion and Spilboroughs from my Bench or I thought H. Pence would also be tradeable?)

Thoughts on a fair mix 1 bat for 1 arm?

–BDH

Hey guys,

FINALLY got to watch the Fantasy Preview show (thank God for DVR) and Corey, your Matt Weiter’s comparison to Piazza and Zeus was CLASSIC. Kudos to you!!! Greta job by all.

My questions concerns a dilemma I’m having with my IR spots. I currently have Joel Zumaya, Ervin Santana AND Justin Duchscherer, but only 2 DL spots. Of the 3, who do you drop, or do I waste a bench spot on 1?

Brian in NH

Boys -

Ok, was offered Meche for Pence
or
Moyer for Spilsborough (my Bench)

I get the arm…..which do you like?

– BDH

Fellas:

I picked up Kelvim Escobar for my DL, so now I need to fill his spot. We have limited (75) transactions, so I can’t pitch or ditch everyday. Any of these guys have staying power for my 12 team, 5×5, head to head roster: Cahil, Brett Anderson, Todd Wellemeyer, Adenhart, David Pursey, Sean Gallagher, or any other like guys you may think would/should be on this list?

HTH, 5×5, 12 team mixed:

I’m in a bind but also have an opportunity. My OFers are Hamilton, Pence, Ellsbury, Bradley, Nel. Cruz, Tr. Snider, and Francouer.

I may have to drop Francouer for a starting pitcher (since Hanson was sent down) but Spilborghs and Rasmus are still available. Might either of these guys be an upgrade over Cruz or Snider?

As always, thanks!

Curtis

bartdogg, I don’t like that deal at all. Yes, you could use an upgrade at 2B, but if speed is your objective, why are you trading away Victorino? He’ll probably steal more bases than Phillips anyway, so you’d actually be losing SBs. Cain and Verlander are far superior pitchers to those waiver wire guys. No way on this one!

Zach

Hey guys, what do you think of this deal? (11 team, 5×5 generic roto)

I get:
Kinsler
Hardy

He gets:
Brian Roberts
Furcal
Sandoval

I have Napoli on the bench. I know i lose a ton of sbs… but i do get kinsler… maybe i can find sbs elsewhere..
Thanks,
Moose

BDH,

I think if you really need pitching, Werth for Cain is fair. I’d rather do that than A-Ram for Beckett. Even better, try packaging Werth with, say EE, to get a better pitcher. As for those other two deals (Meche for Pence and Moyer for Spilborghs), definitely pass.

Zach

Zach -

thanks….do you think Pence & Spilboroughs for Nolasco or Shields is fair value?

–BDH

Brian,

I’d drop Duchscherer. He’s expected back in mid-May but it’s unclear whether he’ll return as a starter or out of the bullpen and his lack of Ks really limits his fantasy value. Knowing Fernando Rodney’s tendency to implode on a regular basis, I can see Zumaya taking over the closer role in Detroit sooner rather than later. As for Big Erv, he’s injured, but we’ve seen what he can do when healthy. Erv is a must keep.

Zach

BDH,

Yes, I do think that’s fair value. He might not take that, but it’s a good starting point.

Zach

Scott,

Wellemeyer has the most staying power among that group, so if you absolutely have to pick up a SP right now, he’d be my choice. But none of these guys are great options. With a transactions limit, you might also want to consider sitting tight until a better SP option emerges during the season’s first couple of weeks.

Zach

Curtis,

Spilborghs may very well turn out to be an upgrade over one of those guys, but hold off making a move for now. Cruz has had a torrid Spring, and will start the season as the Rangers’ cleanup hitter. Both him and Snider have lots of upside (probably more than Spilborghs), so stick with them for the time being.

Zach

Moose,

If you feel you can somewhat make up for the speed through the waiver wire, do the deal. Napoli and Sandoval are fairly equal in value, so the trade boils down to Kinsler and Hardy for Roberts and Furcal. Significant upgrade in power but significant downgrade in steals.

Zach

Zach -

Last option…..Berkman for Webb. Then I put Encarncion as UTIL; sit Putz; and can even pick up LaPorta or Ian Stewart from wire and release Bonderman?

–BDH

hey guys.

In an 6×6 OPS league, would Ian stewart be an upgrade at 2nd or 3rd over Kelly johnson (rumored to bat 7th instead of 2nd), or Edwin Encarnacion (coming off a shoulder injury)?

Would you rather have stewart as insurance or use that spot on Tommy Hanson, Colby Rasmus, or Dexter Fowler in a keeper league?

Thanks
Chris in Columbus

BDH,

I think that’s totally fair value. Berkman has a higher ADP than Webb by a good margin, but if SP is a real need, go for it. The fact that you ‘ll be able to play EE somewhat eases the blow of losing Berkman.

Zach

Chris,

No and no. I like both Johnson and EE over Stewart, and Fowler, Hanson, and Rasmus all have too much value in a keeper league to consider dropping.

Zach

Hey guys,
My Han-Ram deal fell through the other day but I received a new offer from the owner. Here it is:
I give-
Braun
I get-
Lidge
J. Shields
Morneau
I need a 1b and he is desperate for outfielders. I also had Marmol as my closer but you can tell how that worked out.
Thanks,
The Manoman
http://manoman.mlblogs.com

Zach, of those 4 pick 1 to use a bench spot on (Stewart, hanson, Fowler, Rasmus)
C in C

Dear Mike and Cory I have 2 questions 1. Who whould be your choice for comeback player of the year in Fastasy Baseball? and 2. Will we as 411 listeners be able to interact either via e-mails or phone calls on the new fantasy 411 show on Sirius/XM Sattlite Radio? Name:Kenny Hometown::Ohio

The challenge has been presented to you…

Play the “Game” at

http://www.mlpogame.wordpress.com

Where respect is earned…

Hahaha nice podcast today guys, although I had a hard time paying attention: I saw that photo of Jason Motte halfway through and laughed until I peed my pants! Hahahaha, oh man, look at his eyes, hahahahahaha! Menacing.

Quick question

I know Siano is big on Werth. How much would you change the projections for Werth if sheffield signs? As of right now he is said to be mulling over the Reds and the Phils offers. I have a draft Sunday and I am looking big at Werth.
Let me know and keep up the good work

Yo Fellas!
The longest spring training of my life is almost over!!!!!!!! Anyways, I’m stuck in a conundrum! …… 10 team, 28 player rosters roster league. I checked the waivers today and noticed that two owners dropped Devine and Trevor Hoffman. I think Hoffman is a no brainer pick up, but what about Devin? My concern with him is that he went to see Dr. Shane Andrews and that usually means something bad. Thoughts?

Thanks,
Charles, VA

I am in a 14 team keeper league, 27 man roster. We keep 9 each year. This is my first time in a keeper league and I have a newbie question. My SP’s are Haren, Volquez, Josh Johnson, B. Morrow (we know how that turned out.) and David Price. I would never think of dropping him but i am curious if the time to trade him is now while his value is high.

How do you value a keeper like Price now. Do you project what he could be? For example, would you project him to be the same value in the future as Linceum is right now, then trade him for a hitter at that value?

If this is true, please name some current hitters and pitchers that David Price would fetch for comparable value.

I love your show! Keep up the good work!

Jedi in SoCal

Do you think Daniel Murphy is gonna be worth me giving up on Ervin Santana.I was offered a trade where id give up ervin santana and get dan murphy of the mets.im in a 12 team keeper auction league and have solid pitching and solid outfield so these guys would be bench/keepers. they are both the same price.if santana comes back in 2 weeks and pitches like he did last year hed be in my starting 5 for sure but is dan murphy gonna be a all star for years to come.

I see how great this blog is…this is 4th posting of same question. At least before i could stay up after my shift to call in and know I get to ask the question. Now I just post and hope to be seen.

I see we like a lot of the same catchers. I went a little crazy on catchers and need to cut one and open a spot in my reserves. Who is least likely to come up this year:
Max Ramirez
JP Arencibia
Carlos Santana

BTW…all 3 of these guys are on my reserves.

I think Santana is a better player but JP might get a shot 1st?

I hate typing Mike

Trade question. 18 team dynasty keeper league 4×4(runs,rbi’s, obp,tb) & (W, K’s ERA, WHIP). I’ve been offered Josh Beckett or Felix Hernandez and Jesus Flores for Victor Martinez, Jair Jurrjens & Armando Galarraga. We start 4 SP’s and currently my rotations consists of CC, Jurrjens, Chris Carpenter, & Kuroda/Mench/Galarraga. I’m not terribly concerned with downgrade at catcher because I have Buster Posey on my bench who will hopefully step in next year. Do you think that this is a good deal? If so, who would you suggest I take..Beckett or King Felix?

Trade question. 18 team dynasty keeper league 4×4(runs,rbi’s, obp,tb) & (W, K’s ERA, WHIP). I’ve been offered Josh Beckett or Felix Hernandez and Jesus Flores for Victor Martinez, Jair Jurrjens & Armando Galarraga. We start 4 SP’s and currently my rotations consists of CC, Jurrjens, Chris Carpenter, & Kuroda/Mench/Galarraga. I’m not terribly concerned with downgrade at catcher because I have Buster Posey on my bench who will hopefully step in next year. Do you think that this is a good deal? If so, who would you suggest I take..Beckett or King Felix?

Trade question. 18 team dynasty keeper league 4×4(runs,rbi’s, obp,tb) & (W, K’s ERA, WHIP). I’ve been offered Josh Beckett or Felix Hernandez and Jesus Flores for Victor Martinez, Jair Jurrjens & Armando Galarraga. We start 4 SP’s and currently my rotations consists of CC, Jurrjens, Chris Carpenter, & Kuroda/Mench/Galarraga. I’m not terribly concerned with downgrade at catcher because I have Buster Posey on my bench who will hopefully step in next year. Do you think that this is a good deal? If so, who would you suggest I take..Beckett or King Felix?

Manoman,

I’d definitely do that deal. As much as I like Braun, Morneau can make up for most of his production, and you’re getting an elite closer plus a soft ace!

Zach

Chris,

I’m actually going to go Hanson there. When he gets called up, he’s going to pitch. The same playing time assurances can’t be made for the other three.

Charles,

I’m very concerned about Devine as well. Unless you have an open roster spot with no better options, stay away. Devine has a long injury history, and even if the A’s decide that Ziegler isn’t the answer long term, I can see Casilla picking up quite a few saves.

Zach

Value Question here.

I picked up Ziegler and Street late in the draft to back up Rivera and K-rod. Now it seems they are actually valuable. I am a monster in ofense and RP’s but my SP’s are ridiculous bad: Cain, Kershaw, Maine, Galarraga, Blanton.

What kind of SP can I expect to see out of a D. Lee & Street, or a J. Bruce & Ziegler combo? Keep in mind that our league has a mandatory 2-RP start rule and some people don’t have a second closer with Devine, Marmol and such going down.

Thanks for any input guys.
Ed in Chi

Jedi,

It’s tough to say exactly how good Price will turn out to be, but trade value is all about how other owners evaluate him. I wouldn’t be too anxious to deal him now as I think his value could go even higher if he comes up and pitches well, but if you are open to dealing him, don’t just take the first offer that comes your way. Try to get a sence of who in your league values him the most, and don’t rush to make a decision.

Zach

floydruger,

Hold onto Big Erv. Murphy is slated to start in left field, but he is by no means assured everyday playing time if he struggles. We’ve already seen what Erv can do when healthy. His value can only go up.

Zach

evilempire,

I have no problem with you doing that deal, and would go Beckett over King Felix. Beckett’s more of an injury risk, but he’s also more proven and plays for the better team.

Zach

Mike,

I know Siano took both Ramirez and Arencibia in AL Tout, so here’s his answer:

I’ll use the following logic. The Phillies won a title with Ruiz behind the plate so it ain’t broke. Max Ramirez is extremely blocked by Salty and Teagarden. Arencibia is blocked by Barajas and Barrett and plays in a division where they may not be able to keep up so my guess is JP makes the earliest impact, but an injury or trade especially in Texas could help the other guys beat him there.

Thanks for the response. I sorry for the multiple posts.

Ed,

I think either of those packages could net you an SP in the Greinke-Gallardo class, but worse case scenario you settle for a Lilly, Myers, or Harang, maybe plus another useful hitter.

Zach

I have Brad Lidge and Jason Motte as closers. Lidge faces 3 against Atlanta and 3 at Colorado whereas Motte has 4 at home against Pittsburgh and 2 this week at home against Houston. I am thinking that I might start Motte this week. What are your opinions ?

Mgil6969 – Lidge. I don’t think he’ll match last season’s numbers but he’s among the elite. You can never predict saves, so go with your best guys. Then again, why not start both and bench someone else??

–Cory

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