NL Cy Young Debate

Zach here,

The NL Cy Young award announcement is about an hour away and there is little doubt that one of either Adam Wainwright, Tim Lincecum or Chris Carpenter will be taking home the hardware.  Each voter has slightly different criteria in determining the winner but in a purely statistical sense here’s how it breaks down:

Wainwright:  Led NL in Wins (19), 4th in ERA
(2.63), 4th in Strikeouts (212) 

 Lincecum:  Tied for 4th in NL in Wins (15), 2nd in ERA (2.48), 1st in Strikeouts (261)

 Carpenter:  2nd
in NL in Wins (17), 1st in ERA (2.24), 27th in Strikeouts

Lincecum, with an average standing of 2.33, wins this battle over Wainwright (3) and Carpenter (10).  But the reality is that the Baseball Writers of America are not statisticians, and Wins has historically been weighted more heavily than the other two Triple Crown stats (Think Bartolo Colon 2005).  Unlike the MVP award, team success is not factored into the Cy Young decision, so I say Lincecum deserves it.  But don’t be surprised if Wainwright’s considerable edge in victories winds up being the determining factor.  Just how many of these voters have listened to the 411?  Not enough.  Don’t chase wins!

On today’s podcast, the guys will discuss the 2010 fantasy values of all the Cy Young contenders.

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